2022, year two (plus 10 or so)

October 19th, 2022, 10:14 AM

waiting for energy, vix likes to test the extremes recently

bigger than expected draw would be supportive

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impetus died off, still grinding with vix

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well-contained, controlled dips with dollar, energy and vix influences

earnings sentiment is lower

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longer term may be rounding and fixing various issues in energy bonds as a consequence of covid measures / stimulus

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on earnings, next week shows GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL and AMZN, consumer brands look ok

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index turn is good and coincides with energy supporting and vix ceiling

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energy and vix supportive, prob still sitting on earnings

October 20th, 2022, 12:09 PM

energy retrace, at least we can have lower gas, can't really push with earnings next week, vix still sunny

kinda ranged but with upside bias

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range broken and now heavy following energy, dip counter prob has a few more on it now

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with nq jumpy, feels like arbing based on es which is steadily sinking

can actually scalp mini rips for entry close to SMAs and keep reloading

journeying toward 11k nq mark

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little harder to sink now with es near support, prob leave a bit off

some tailing on energy, see if it follows through later, minor earnings through close

vix also dragging to get that resistance lower

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the reaction after bond close with vix dropping claims a pause/key level**

** by level, meaning no necessarily a specific linear level but a rounding area

possible accumulation into the quarterly earnings with upside as this stairsteps

es around 3680s, nq around 11.1k, but aftermarket has started dropping a bit

nimble / survival / defensive mentality, with slight diplike sentiment bias

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es heading toward 3750 nq 11.4 though dragging a bit, 6j dumped but recovering

energy and vix are supportive, likely a test of a few resistances above on indexes

like to set and forget and just cruise on such days instead of picking away

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could possibly use nq as a entry indicator for es swing, but nq is dragging from cl

cl is being guarded tightly, dxy and yen kinda influencing also

again big tech earnings next week so there is some built in hesitation

something about outsized 0dte options etc. no idea about that influence

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starting to feel the pin / gravitational pull from derivatives esp. on nq

seeing that energy is kinda running in place too, so maybe early to exit

recalling yesterday afternoon drop so possibly ranged, again just context

will wait for googl, since that seems a little weak / previous earnings under

calling it for the week here, let the expiry shenanigans do their thing i guess

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looks like 6j recovered and energy vix forming a push, breakout with entry

from previous support to test resistance, looks to be a controlled push

October 21st, 2022, 12:13 PM

safety trade would be to stay closer to SMA for entry since there is hesitation

that way on a false breakout the entry was established earlier, with profitable exit

left for a bit and tried to enter later and exited with a small loss after false break

on the plus side, es is curling up with nq lagging trying to also establish a curl

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also hate taking on energy, when crude leads, take heed.. so pausing

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nymex close gave the go ahead, though vix is not following, technical move

October 23rd, 2022, 12:27 PM

one thing looking back on late friday is that vix was climbing with the index but dropped with volume at close

maybe the premiums were being milked, no idea..

energy is also coiled and ready hoping for cheaper gas but prob not the case

consumer sensitive economy means the amzn type megas will lead / sink

kinda recursive, but pointing to decent quarter even with a googl marketing drag

we already saw from ibm that computing/cloud was good, subscription services like nflx too

discretionary spend also less due to food/energy costs but staples are maintained

fortunately the strong dollar offsets other commodities so there is a cancel effect

also nq has this habit recently off not hitting target but es overshoots

pre-earnings jitters or possibly some early weakness / hesitation until numbers

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also those who were turned off from loans due to high interest rates now divert

either going to banks either way or alt investment or further spend

also the cash infused corps like msft, aapl will have less financing pressures

either way there are a lot of elements that can ride out the bubbles

a bit of a financial health check, separating the wheat from the chafe

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the vol spiked a bit from some data, but also technically returned to area for testing

nq followed more technically, while es is levitating, but both closer to averages

the overnight seemed like a continuation move to make room for further action

the bowl that es has is a bit more shallow than nq as well

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energy keeps flip flopping generating even more vol, vix rejected after spike

October 24th, 2022, 01:56 PM

nq ignited faster than es which re-visited the prev close area

have es at 3820 test and nq 11.6 ish which pushes into googl er tues

energy is lax and vix is relaxing, so a bit of a hesitation into nymex

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the boj/fed co-ordination seems more like a hand-shake, that previously

a weakened dollar was meant to stimulate domestically with tolerable yen strength

now the yen has time to enjoy a more eased environment while capping inflation

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es is now ~ 100 away from previous fomc, stagnated expectations toward status quo

looking back the dip mid-october might seem more like capitulation, though gap unfilled

from the mar 2020 covid low to the winter 2021 highs, that makes about a 50% trace

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googl okay either way and a positive surprise would push too, nymex close gave green light

choosing nq over es, as nq was lagging and has r/r and behaving with technicals

off-guard with AM dip otherwise, learned what happened after the fact but swing long

really continuation from friday, as well as last mon for accumulation, guessing third resistance

es 3900 maybe the reason es seems to be ahead, when in fact es needs to clear another level

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takehome here is that right trend but wrong r/r can also produce unwanted result

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one aside is that taking up boxing has effect of psychological training

literally, getting punched sucks, so don't do that / do that less.. until habitual

in certain scenarios you are likely to get punched more, so don't go there

and one other thing, you will get punched, just try not to get knocked out

roll with it, clench the jaw and position for a test offensive.. keep attacking

but with guard up, keep doing what works, observe and go with the flow

in the moment, do not think, survive and thrive.. look back after and plan strats / train

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there's combos to throw (swing), but not there yet, keeping it simple

between the starting round and final bell, just a jab/cross in-out type risk

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swinging is more like surfing, where u gotta get underwater for a bit

before riding that next wave.. so having a day strat can help build for that

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noticing curling in the bonds, going with zt short dated, seeing the move first

followed by zf and maybe zn, zb is still stuck nowhere, so maybe a strong impulse

on the front end of the curve would signal possible recovery, too early to confirm

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just saw something that might be useful for confirmation, that level crosses

should happen with volume or during times when action can verify

if this is the case, then the rally is technical in nature, something is off

for things to properly recover another leg down may be necessary MT

October 25th, 2022, 02:23 PM

messed around on sim today, trying to see where the reversal was, but never really showed

vix seems to have breached lower so not sure until after earnings, either way just a test

kept adding as the indexes sunk, but not enough to spark a trend, maybe after nymex

crude is just wobbling around with expectation. this marks the two week trial period end

passed within the first week and started experimenting within the second to understand more

found the need to pace and gauge r/r but fortunately could rely on previous profit for padding

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finally have no expectations except to learn more each time and plan accordingly

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vix seems to be a capitulation move, to the point of breaching but not quite

wonder what the put/call ratio is for various majors since they are getting cheap

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r/r was off on entry, just respect levels, should be ok for a tester size

have to be extra sure if using real size, with earnings, that is a grey area

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the vix volume at close has been increasing, maybe they finished hedging?

the technical rally today may have sealed the deal for another -30%

gonna keep zig zaggin down until completely happy

r/r here is a lot better, expecting continuation.. guessing ppl caught off guard chasing?

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eia stretch before numbers, vix as well, es is neverland but nq is reacting

October 26th, 2022, 11:25 AM

another round of capitulation for shorts, vix testing extremes and the bowl formation still exists

energy just wants higher but possibly also at an extreme, tried to fade on sim but too early

seems like an advanced strat because probability is that trade goes against you, and you have to resist the temptation to add

the bread and butter standard is to react only in areas where the probability is more in your favor, otherwise go small

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so prior was using kinetick for data feed, now that these other sims have data, kinda redundant, especially with the new rithmic mobile app.. either way there is a backup and rotating through sims for evaluation/practice helps me learn

nymex close, crude with the SPR draw helped but let's see with meta and such

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realizing early on the entry, so take a small tester, wait until confirmation and then commit

the secondary is really when additions can happen but need to be small as well, just extra oompf

going small into the last hour, due to being a tester, anticipating a fast move possibly to continue

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vix is still hanging at the lows, energy the highs, zn did get bid and looks to be trying further

es is levitating while nq dips, let's see what the next incoming tech earnings does for the bid

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this open was strange, vix low and energy high but just tracked nq mostly as meta dropped

now vix is bouncing but energy is still at highs now reversing, so they pull out to extremes

expectations for turnaround are weakening, at least there is no news on further conflict

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resorted to watching meta influence indexes, energy and vix still extreme, something could pop

still have a pessimistic bent, but going small with the indecision, especially with es levitating

October 27th, 2022, 11:17 AM

just saw something i didn't like, so just flat until things resolve, like both indexes are levitating

while energy and vix are pushing, seems trappy as the dips are bounced almost reflexively

also dow is green, prob due to energy, very mixed day, okay to pause here

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also bonds have been well, bonding, and this is supportive with $DXY also in with /6J

there seems to be a positive sentiment for both aapl and amzn from the consumer side

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es is the last man standing, still above the level might need data for the breakdown

nq is slowing grinding, one thought is to make a synthetic hybrid position based on probability

days like today would adjust to a lower overall net due to the ranged movement

on breakout/down the hedge could be released until a certain target / level

that way the delta is not just 100% all the time but a mixture based on likelihood

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hesitation or mixed still or slow, vix is a bit lower but definitely dripping not dropping

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testing the conviction of positioning, which is not a bad way to go, but unintentionally

also working with the whips in aapl and other components that are reporting soon

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move almost feels telegraphed at this point, mood has been soured and dismal

but not yet reflected fully, there is pressure building from multiple areas

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not sure what to call it, but sell into strength, there is also a rounding of breadth

vix is the sustain as energy is starting to fade as well, guessing friday type activity

relentless vol, wondering if selling cheap calls to 0dte yolo'ers would add to this decay

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delta profile between calls and puts is definitely distributed differently

prob going to wait for the turn to commit

October 28th, 2022, 11:32 AM

following along by amzn proxy mostly, seeing a pause at least, energy suddenly dropped with volume

going small until the bars appear for confirmation, been whipsawing as this squeezes somewhat

something about the EU session has also been supportive, seeing if the west coast continues

ppl probably want out of some of the major index heavy tech players until a reasonable juncture

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feels like the buck is being passed here, whatever party is accumulating for the greater good

at least more two sided than with an easing tailwind, still feeling the jumps and props on and off

and then there's aapl going up and away, can't forget about that one, more than offsets amzn

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nearing the exit zone, got it. well that's it for now

October 31st, 2022, 12:28 PM

tricky dip light and waiting, energy is not feeling it

vix is still low however, so let's see the bars to start the score

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seems to be dictated by daily levels and already closed under

so not really going to expect much here for the rest of the day

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expectations seem to be moving lower, fomc weds, nfp fri

between the tricks and the treats, better off figuring out the magic behind it all

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mystery day, continuing into the week, very sparse range, only thing is crude got frisky

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looks like there is no real conviction still even though the overnight popped

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ye market gods have decided and ye have followed for fear of being seen as pagan

guess i am pagan, due to the incoming fomc, but devout followers may be holding in fear

i too have seen the light and am trembling in fear before the great one and have followed

2022, year two (plus 10 or so)

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2022, year two (plus 10 or so)