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February 9th, 2024, 12:54 PM

3rd good day in a row. I'm beginning to like DAX!

I started with a red bias but prepared to flip if we make a new HOD. My thesis seemed to work and I tripled down on my short. However, the next 4 hours were chopfest. Hence I got out breakeven/small loss.

Just before US open, entered short again @ breakout. This time it work like charm but with only 1 lot. Grabbed 60 points but still left some on the tablet. Re-shorted again @ vwap bounce and bagged another 20 points in the closing minutes.

It's an interesting couple of days with strong ES but weak DAX. I no longer ask the question 'why'. I just trade what's in front of me.

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February 11th, 2024, 04:29 AM

Thanks @lesterb for providing the link to this article below about logistics in another thread.

https://leadershipreverie.blogspot.com/2020/05/amateurs-talk-strategy-professionals.html

The standout part for me is this.

""Strategy" describes the overall objective - the destination, if you will - and how a team is going reach that objective. "Tactics" describe the specific actions that will be required to meet the overall objective. "Logistics" describes the process by which the right people are placed in the right position at the right time to execute the tactics necessary to successfully achieve the strategic objective.

I had to read it several times to internalise the meaning of it and how I can incorporate into my trading business.

I realised that I focus way too much on strategy and less on tactics and very little on logistics. For eg. my strategy may be 'buy the pullbacks today as the trend looks bullish'. Then the tactic i.e specific action would be to put limit orders @ support levels i.e Y-C, Y-H, vwap etc. If I'm really prepared, I may even set profit taking orders at certain key levels.

What about the final piece i.e 'the logistics '?. What if my limit order is missed by a tick or 2? what if the price blasts through my limit order and support levels with no respect? what if the price never dips and just rips through the resistance? Do I have the logistics in place?

Do I have the right trade at the right place and at the right time?

hmmmm.

February 11th, 2024, 10:58 AM

HumbleTrader

Do I have the right trade at the right place and at the right time?

hmmmm.

Do you have a written trading plan?
A good plan will answer those questions.

February 14th, 2024, 04:56 AM

My DAX trading is having more success than ES.

Today is a sample of my evolution as a trader. I'm hoping to continue this style and aiming to move up a slightly higher timeframe.

I used to be a single lot trader and focused too much on entry and exit. Obviously this means unhelpful focus on 'nailing' the top and bottom.

Instead, I have evolved into a 'campaign trader' where I initiate my trade as a small posltion based on my bias. Then I groom my trade depending on PA. I let the market dictate me what to do.

For instance, my bullish bias was executed pretty well today with DAX futures. I'm flat now but the day is not over yet & I wanted to share whilst it's still fresh.

2

February 14th, 2024, 08:16 PM

After my profitable long trade in DAX, I had another 1 long trade and 1 short trade. Grabbed 25+ pts each but not too pleased as I couldn't increase the size. I bank profits with the plan of re-entering at a better price but chicken out. One way of mitigating this is to always enter with 2 lots.

I took a short @ ES too but missed 20+ pts by a tick. I have noticed this several times lately. Perhaps, I should look at Bookmap depth again to see the resting orders and make sure I'm not behind the call or put wall.

February 15th, 2024, 05:01 AM

Feb 15 Trading

First trade was my classical trap. When the opening bar is very bullish, my amateur monkey mindset 'price had gone too high' set in. I shorted 2 lots but sanity prevailed quickly after a new HOD. I admitted I was wrong and quickly, very quickly, covered my longs for almost breakeven. This humility alone will save me a bundle in the future.

I could have flipped into long but I decided to wait. This was a missed opportunity of 50+ points (as swing high was logical next stop).

My second trade is short again but this time just 1 lot as I was fighting a strong bullish trend. Though there were signs of exhaustion, I tend to give this kind of trade more room. Despite taking some heat, I was pretty calm and the anticipated reversal happened. A counter-trend trade 25+ pts. Should have been bit more though.

My 3rd trade was a dud in theory but a massive improvement for me. My short was based on one assumption about a big lot selling. Once that thesis is invalidated by price action, I got out quickly. No hopes, no ifs, no buts..

My thesis is gap closure and price returning to value again in the middle. Limit short @ VAH 17130. Stop is 20 pts away @ HOD and profit @ 40 pts down to OR high. I have no idea what's going to happen.

3

February 15th, 2024, 10:39 AM

HumbleTrader

My thesis is gap closure and price returning to value again in the middle. Limit short @ VAH 17130. Stop is 20 pts away @ HOD and profit @ 40 pts down to OR high. I have no idea what's going to happen.

I executed my bearish bias better than I hoped.

First, my limit short @ 30 was missed by few ticks. Instead of fretting, I decided to short lower @ 12. Risking more but seemed worth it as buyers had trouble pushing up.

Once we finally came out of congestion, I decided to scale in @ 02 during a nice rebound.

I scaled out for 15+ and flat with another 40+ points. Total 80 for the day. Nice.

Now I'm bold enough to initiate another short @ 95 and willing to risk some to see whether sellers can close the gap. That's a juicy 70 points. Too ambitious perhaps. I don't mind that as my risk is small & controlled with clear exit plan. However, I have no idea what's going to happen though.

4

February 16th, 2024, 02:56 AM

Dax opening in few minutes.

Large UP gap above ATH.

Bias is bearish based on stats. However, price action is very bullish and hence I will wait for exhuastion and initiate shorts.

Opex expiration bearishness will likely be in play today.

February 16th, 2024, 10:02 AM

Green day but botched execution.

My short bias was perhaps too strong and I started selling soon way too soon.

Though I realised my mistake twice and sensibly covered my short for breakeven, twice, I decided to let 2 lot short stay till US open. Not cool.

The result - Huge and unnecessary MAE but I stuck to my thesis of opex expiration weakness. Eventually DAX turned around to my entry and much below.

Though my original plan was gap closure i.e 80 pts profit, I covered 1 @ breakeven and the other for 35+ points profit. That's what seeing my position in deep red does to my execution.

Could have been 150+ pts day but a paltry 35+. Urghh.

The only consolation is that my MES short, positioned for Opex and Nvidia earnings correction is making some money.

.

February 23rd, 2024, 11:31 AM

Trading DAX update.

I really like the timing of Dax and it allows me to sleep well. (I'm in Asia now). I still keep an eye on ES during EU hours but decided NOT to trade it for a bit.

DAX follows the world bullish trend and my bias was long today.

I did lot of things correctly and few things wrongly which reduced my profit potential.

1st trade - I bought the initial dip / pullback. I expected choppiness but sellers seemed persistent. Hence, I decided to take a small loss until buyers show their hand.

2nd trade - Then I tried another stab at long but didn't like the look straightaway. Price didn't bounce off quickly and hence I scratched it and decided to sit on the sidelines until we break the downtrend line.

3. My final long was well executed and I scaled in twice, both at desirable locations and as per my plan.

However, when it came to harvesting the profits, I was skittish and didn't execute my plan of waiting for a test of Y-H.

Overall, 50+ pts but once again should have been higher. I am glad I'm taking smaller losses but still not patient for bigger profits. Working on it.

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