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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,733 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,408
Thanks Received: 2,991
Long 4138.
Currently taking heat. Price did reach my original planned entry of 4129 but decided NOT to add to my position which is in red due to conflicting signs.
ONL is still holding. NYSE tick is bullish and still supportive of potential ONH test. However, the volume on down move was quite high and sellers sliced through support like it's butter.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,733 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,408
Thanks Received: 2,991
Oops. You are right. Overnight low was taken out quick but what I meant was Y-L which is also a nice swing low.
My thesis is that we are going to stay in the chop area of 4120 to 4170 till OPEX. If we make a higher low @ 4129, then there is a chance of making a higher high into the 60s. ATR would be a reasonable 30 to 40.
I like this equivolume chart to get a sense of RTH volume and filter some noise. If Y-L is taken out, then the next swing low is 4110 and we are looking at testing 4100. Hence a potential 25 points drop and risk reward for long is not great in that scenario.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,733 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,408
Thanks Received: 2,991
Quick stats about 'inside days'.
During the last 20 years, i.e 5000 trading days approx., there were about 250 inside days with higher close. If I use the current moving average filters, then it's about 150.
For today's price action, I expected higher high scenario and placed a Long trade @ 4138 accordingly. My profit target is about 20 points up. If we make a lower low, then my thesis is wrong and my loss location is 10-12 pts below.
So far, we are having another 'inside day'. What are the odds of having 2 successive inside day under these market conditions? It happened just 8 times out of the total 150 sample size. I can't plan for that
It was a bit of a challenging day for me, as well. I, presonally, don't believe that the economic news today was significant. I think the "big money" is just playing games to create volatility for themselves. For sure, the economy is not in great shape, but the "big money" will use whatever they can to their advantage. Our job is just to follow their trail and pick up their crumbs.
I was long from 4138. Within few minutes of my entry, price raced up 10 points and almost closed the gap. I was getting ready to scale up but quite surprised with the swift rejection and ES went down 20 points with the same ferocity.
My bullish bias became blunted but I didn't give up, mainly because of NYSE tick divergence. However, it became quite clear by mid-day that all the bounces were being sold, tick remained muted and volume dried up. New high of the day became unlikely and I got out @ breakeven.
I am glad that the sellers finally took the Y-L during the dying minutes of the game. I don't being on the losing side of the game. I just want the game to be interesting. Not like yesterday
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,733 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,408
Thanks Received: 2,991
May 17 2023 Wednesday
My stats are mixed today. Once again, price moved back above 20 DMA overnight, after closing below it yesterday. This sort of setup makes my stats unreliable. Hence, I will watch the price action for 5 to 10 minutes before deciding on my bias.
I do have a limit sell order @ 4148 as I like the lower highs in the daily chart, indicating that sellers are stronger. Will see.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,733 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,408
Thanks Received: 2,991
Long 4131.
Theme is gap closure. Expecting another choppy day and hence fading the moves.
Somewhat risky trade as it's against the trend and can easily test 4100. Hence I'm using hard stop @ 25 (which I don't use very often).
If I'm stopped out, I will consider shorting if risk reward is supportive.
If this trade works, then profit would be 30 points from the LOD i.e 55. However, there is massive resistance @ 45 opening print. Hence I may exit at that level and then enter long again on pullback.
I may sound a bit disorganised but that's the risk of articulating my thoughts when I'm in trade and it's usually messy.
