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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,739 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,425
Thanks Received: 3,002
Difficult day to trade as the range was narrow and price action was 'whiplashy'.
I didn't NOT follow my weak bullish signal and chose to short. (I have flexibility in my execution system if my signals are faint or neutral. Hence no rules broken)
I actually did pretty well and scaled in only AFTER seeing weakness. However my scaling out plan to get out below Overnight Low didn't work out. I had a nice MFE at one point but the last minute bounce made sure I walked away with a small loss.
No regrets as I identified that it's going to be a tricky day to trade and tuition fees was fairly low. The Lesson was to be nimble when signal is weak and use 80% ATR i.e conservative profit targets.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,739 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,425
Thanks Received: 3,002
Graceful exit
I'm glad that my 2 attempts to exit gracefully worked today. The backdrop is a choppy or range day. If I don't see the kind of follow up I want, I scale out for breakeven. Infact, I deliberately make it a 'tiny loss' so that my ego gets used to the loss concept. Pride is deadly in this business.
Today's trading demonstrates my ideal BE exit much better than my words. 2 scale-in attempts failed but they are not failures.
I left my original RTH open short till the close. That's mainly for research and analysis purpose only for now and gradually I will start using hard stops and may even reverse if the context is right.
I'm happy that you were able to take the 'tiny loss', something I'm still working on everyday. Good plan, good chart reading, GREAT EXECUTION, good trade overall imo!
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,739 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,425
Thanks Received: 3,002
My short trade is NOT working, obviously.
However, I was lucky to scale out 1/2 size @ 3900. I noticed the struggle by sellers in making new lows and hence became cautious. Booked small profit which is still not enough to reduce the heat I'm feeling right now. However, it could have been lot worse.
I will likely leave the 1/2 size till EOD or may be tempted to cover it during next pullback @ 3925.
P.S. The perils of graceful exit was in full display today. However, my rule of thumb is 'range days and trend days alternate'. Hence, I am generally more cautious after range days and prefer to use hard stops or even reverse my position. Not today though as my signals are bearish and Opex whilplash is common.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,739 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,425
Thanks Received: 3,002
Since my decision to hold my short till the End of the Day EOD backfired spectacularly, today is perhaps a good day to review my execution methodology.
As I mentioned in my entry on the 6th of Jan 2023, I started using 'tags' in tradervue to get some insight into my trading patterns so that I can optimize. This is the picture form that entry.
I had lot of confidence in my signals but didn't know how to execute them better. My main questions were
1) Is it better to enter @ RTH open or wait for upto 30 minutes (to get a better sense of who is winning and for the momentum to slow)
2) Do I exit @ RTH close or earlier if my profit / loss goal is reached?
When I reviewed my trades today, the findings were striking. I didn't expect a very clear answer without any ambiguity in such a short period of 10 weeks and only 50 trades. I know it's a busy entry hence I highlighted relevant stats.
. 1. Entry - I'm better off waiting for few minutes after RTH open.
.
. 2. Exit - Definitely before RTH close.
.
. 3. Scale-in. Yes. I'm (finally) pressing my winners and cutting my losers.
.
Great findings, I also switched to entering the market late. Generally, I found that the first 15mins can be very volatile. It does suck when I miss it as there are opportunities, lots of good money to be made, but the issue I found, I also lost just as big. Its a bummer when the trend starts early, a "gap and go" situation, from when I was doing option trading. I just kind of stuck with 6:45-7:00 AM PST as my first entry point.
I also found out that pre market 2 hours before market open, has good opportunities. If I were to trade that early, I would still avoid that first 15mins of US market opening, unless I have a position in that is already trending.
Early exit is probably best if you are day trading, as lots of volume can come in at the last hour, aka "power hour" like back in 2020-2021. It has lots of opportunities there as well, probably just as crazy as the first 30 mins opening. Data might be a little off, as you would only want to hold till end of day, if you are on a "trending" day. If you are swing trading, then that entirely different.
Great job with scaling in, and keeping your losses small!
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,739 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,425
Thanks Received: 3,002
Today is perhaps an auspicious day to end my 'End of Day' orders. Though it was an outsized loss of 350 dollars, it's still no where near my max risk limit per day. So, no worries.
Since I have the data that I'm lot more profitable by closing my positions BEFORE RTH close, I will no longer use EOD order. The only exception could be a trending market like @injpowwetrust suggested.
This also coincides with my imminent travel to Canada this weekend for a 6 weeks contract job. Different timezone means, I have to wake up @ 5.30 AM. Not easy. My execution method also needs some modification as I will be working from 8-6 with very little opportunity to check the market. (Actually, I don't want to, as it's quite distracting to my regular job).
Will see me posting less. Lot less. I said that a few times now but, like an addict, I keep coming back.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,739 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,425
Thanks Received: 3,002
Covered my short @ 45 instead of my original target 35 for 2 reasons.
1. It was already 50 pts ATR range in RTH (and 70 if I consider ETH). I didn't expect such a rapid move within an hour. That means, it could reverse quickly too, especially on a opex day and after distribution or HVN in the lows.
2. Friday PMs can be quite dull and I didn't want to sit through it.
I was quite lucky to recover most of my losses from yesterday and finishing in green this week.
It's 80F or 30C temparature here in Asia and I'm flying to BC Canada tomorrow. It's single digit there and right now 35F or 3C. That will be fun
