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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,739 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,424
Thanks Received: 3,000
Long 3785.
I will probably hold this position till EOD with the view of adding if ONH 3805 is taken out.
If we test ONL 3740, that may be my puke point. I probably will not reverse and short this market as the volume is fairly mute and hence trend down day appears remote (for now).
Edit - Scaled in 89. Not a great location. Taking some heat. But still bullish bias and hence holding.
Quite a narrow range of 25 pts and chop fest, as expected. Yet, impatient in my entries. Hopefully I will do better with my exits today.
Reason - Directionless market after 3800 was rejected. Evidence of distribution in the VAH and hence further upside potention seemed limited.
Still long bias but tick weakness is not insipiring confidence. VIX spiked up @ open but slammed hard. Perhaps it will push up the stocks. Will see.
May enter long @ VAL low 3770s or chase the price once I see strength above 3800.
Edit - I did try long @ 3800 after missing the boat on the 70.
My success rate of breakout trade has been very low and didn't like the price stalling. Hence decided to go flat and call it a day. Though I still think bulls have upper hand, today's range was lame (but not unexpected this week before THE inflation report.)
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,739 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,424
Thanks Received: 3,000
Missed profits should be counted as loss.
Inspite of getting the directional bias right, I didn't make money. This is due to impatience i.e. not waiting for discounted price and expecting the market to move quicker. Looks silly when I look at EOD chart and my entries/exits. That's what I love about tradervue. It's very visual feeback (or smacking).
I will probably start a spreadsheet of potential loss of profits in addition to P&L.
Have you talked about how you determine the probable direction based on stats? Would you mind sharing some details about how you calculate these stats? If you judge it is your secret formula and prefer not to share i would understand obviously. Just always open to learn new things.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,739 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,424
Thanks Received: 3,000
No secret at all.
It may sound a bit complicated but takes less than 5 minutes every day for me. I used to use investiquant.com to do backtesting as I don't have coding background. Nowadays I have a cheat sheet (after long hrs of work).
I look at 6 factors.
1. Previous day winner - Bulls/Bears and the strength - assessed by % close.
2. Gap - filled/unfilled
3. Short term trend - assessed by daily HH, HL, LL etc
4. Seasonality - Day of the week - (probably less important than the above 3)
5. VIX level - i.e currently 25 ish. moderately elevated
6. Overnight behaviour - above or below Y-H, Y-L
Today's results were + + - 0 0 -
Net result was 0 = No winner / edge.
I have outlined this in my earlier posts, deeply buried somewhere.
This ONLY tells me what happened in the PAST under similar market condtions.
Then I review spotgamma.com report for CURRENT positioning and flow of buyers/sellers.
Finally, I assess price action by EMA crossover systerm. Many examples out there. Itchimoku is a popular one. I use the one by Ripster47 (free in tradingview).
I have been (slowly) educating myself about the intermarket correlations for the last few months. For example, I have been stalking VIX & USD and it's correlation with ES. I need to study bonds and planning to do this next year.
The biggest caveat of my system is that the results are based on initiating position @ RTH open and holding it till the 'End of Day'. I have been trying to optimise it to my day-trading (but only 2-4 round turns/day) with partial success.
1. However, the opening price action made me short the 3800. Once I realised that price struggled with buyers absorbing the pressure, I went flat BE.
2. I quickly reversed to long @ 3801 (reversing my bias within minutes (after seeing my trade thesis failing) is a very positive change for me lately. I was surprised that I had no itch to take the profits and waited until vwap 3820 was hit and got out with 20+ pts gain.
3. Then waited for the PB. This time I got in @ 09 but didn't like sellers pressure to test 3800 again. Got out for -8 pts.
Currently a bit confused as to whether to go long or short. Volume is unusually high and price choppy with bearish bias. However, 3800 is a huge support. Hence (im)patiently Waiting in the sidelines.
).