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July 17th, 2023, 06:34 PM

10000 volume bar

July 17th, 2023, 09:19 PM

My bearish hypothesis did NOT work out today.

However, my short trade didn't cause pain and actually made a small gan due to a combination of factors outlined below.

1. Sizing - I start with 1 contract and add ONLY after seeing my trade thesis working. Today the size remained small as the price action turned bullish soon.

2. Entry point- I try to get in @ resistance levels so the MAE is not too painful. Today, I was short from 4552. Resistance band is around 4554-56. Wrong point is 4560. So a maximum of 8 pts loss with potential profit of 20 points.

3. Exit point - This is a controversial one but it works fine for me. I do NOT routinely use hard stops. In a low VIX environment, I learnt that trend days are unlikely and chop/rangey movement a.k.a 'liquidity hunting' is the norm. . Hence, I tend to keep my losers to see the reaction @ my stop points. I like to call them 'my thesis is wrong points' which was 4560 today. If and when it's touched, I go into 'safe escape' mode and see a way to exit with a smaller loss. Today, I decided to hold it till the EOD and lucky to have a deeper pullback and no harm done.

Over the years, I realised something very valuable in trading. I apply that to my other aspects of life too.

Nothing is wrong or dangerous as long as I accept the consequence and no-one else is hurt.

August 4th, 2023, 10:55 AM

So close yet so far

My current trading phase is all about aggression, particularly with position size and re-entries.

My thesis today is ONH to ONL liquidity hunting. Estimated ATR of 30 pts minimum (with the potential for 50 if RV picks up).

Short 47 and added 49. Market rolled over as I expected. I covered @ 34 and 20. Picture perfect entries and exits at HOD and LOD. 40+points. I try to stay grounded but not easy when the execution is flawless.

Since relative volume picked up in down move, I changed my thesis to potential 4500 test and hence decided to press harder. Waited for the low RV rebound and then short again @ 32 & 34. However, Mr Market decided to teach me a lesson of humility again and the price all the way upto 45.

If we make a new HOD above 50, I will try to exit gracefully. Otherwise, I may hold this till the end of the day. Not adding more until we make new LOD @ 20.

August 4th, 2023, 11:41 PM

I got lucky with my short from 30s.

When I last posted, MES looked like this (with my entries marked).

I was NOT expecting a V shaped move from 20 to 50 and was considering going flat (and swallowing my pride). However, I decided to let it play till the end of the day and rewarded handsomely. When I stay out of my active positions with clear understanding of the risk, I often get rewarded.

August 5th, 2023, 11:25 AM

HumbleTrader

I got lucky with my short from 30s.

When I last posted, MES looked like this (with my entries marked).

I was NOT expecting a V shaped move from 20 to 50 and was considering going flat (and swallowing my pride). However, I decided to let it play till the end of the day and rewarded handsomely. When I stay out of my active positions with clear understanding of the risk, I often get rewarded.

I was thinking of you when we got the plummet� glad you held in there.

Sent from my iPhone using nexusfi.com

August 8th, 2023, 10:10 AM

Short bias today.

I was able to grab a decent chunk of 10 points out of the first 30 mins ATR of 20 mins. Entered 4508 and covered @ 4498. I should have aimed for a target below ONL where scared longs have their stops..

I expect another test of 4500 and will try to get short again. Though trend down day is a good possibility, I'm unsure whether I want to short the breakouts yet. If new low is made below 4490, then I will be tempted.

I'm also short SPY from RTH open and will hold it till the end of the day. That's a 'no matter what' sort of trade which helps me assess the strength of my signals.

August 9th, 2023, 08:58 AM

August 9 prep.

Bearish bias today. One of my reliable daily set ups actually.

I will likely start my campaign of shorting from RTH open. I'm doubling my max MES to 6 starting today. Will start with 2 and ramp up once confirmation i.e overnight low test.

I expect a retest of 4500 today but not sure whether Y-L of 4483 will be tested.

August 9th, 2023, 11:39 AM

I executed my bearish bias reasonably well. Short from 4518 and added @ 4506 as per my plan mentioned above. 1/2 out @ 96 and then flat @ 88.

Total profit is 40 points. My only disappointment is that I didn't reach my max size of 6 as my limit sell order was too high.

However, I'm still considering my second campaign of short if price bounce upto 4500. I think Y-L is still in danger and better entry point means a decent 20 pts target. Let's see.

August 10th, 2023, 08:53 AM

August 10 2023 Prep

After CPI print today, price has been moving wildly from 4495 to 4525 so far.

If we open up, my bias would be bullish. There is significant resistance around 4550 area, which is also within 40 points ATR and hence that would be my target.

I'm expecting a low volume grind up day and hence will start low and add/scale in during pullbacks. If ONL is tested, or we open gap down, then this thesis is no longer valid and I will consider shorting.

August 10th, 2023, 10:11 AM

My long from open @ 4510 was in a hurry to reach my target of 4540.

I'm happy about the quick 30+ points gain but somewhat frustrated as I was having only 1/3 of my size and hoping to add during pullbacks.

Day is still young. Perhaps I will have another change in the 20s. Will see.

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