Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
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Despite having a long bias, I ended up with a losing day.
Reason - Old habit of 'random reversal of bias' sneaked in. Amateurish & Unacceptable.
Long from 4131. Good entry but got out early at 40. Much below my original target of 55. Then reversed to short from 42 for no good reason. Well, there was a decent reason of range day expectation but did NOT have the discipline to get out at HOD. Hence gave up earlier 8 pts gain and lot more.
Interestingly, I journaled about the risk of trend down day when I was long and had a hard stop but didn't anticipate a trend up day and hence just a mental stop. Will correct this in the future.
P&L was not hit badly but got hit emotionally. Need to train my discipline muscle harder now.
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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
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May 18 2023 Prep.
My bias is bearish today. If we open gap UP, then stats are more favorable. Currently we are few points down from Y-Close but it could easily change in the next few mintues before RTH open.
Despite my bearish bias, I think ONH may be tested as 4200 will act like magnet. However, I expect a lower close or atleast a pullback upto 4160 and that gives me a nice 35 to 40 ATR to work with. OPEX expiry and low VIX may spoil the party and give us a dull session. Will see.
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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
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Short 4190.
I did jump the gun, but only by few points. My EMA crossover is not sell signal yet but it looked plump and juicy to short. I have been wrong several times when I did this but I'm ok to take some heat as profit potential looks great for a short from here.
I will tolerate 4200 test but if price is accepted there for more than 10 to 15 minutes, my thesis is wrong and I will bail out. if my short trade works, I will hold it atleast till 4170.
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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
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Still holding my short from 4190. I was expecting a fairly swift rejection but not happening yet. On the brighter side, 4200 resistance is holding so far.
I will let this trade play out till the end of the day. I may even let it stay over the opex and weekend if needed as 4200 is such a big resistance for several months and we are unlikely to blast through it.
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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
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Finally....
The deeper pullback I was expecting is underway. ES managed to touch 75 I'm not banking my profits yet. I'm unsure whether sellers have more juice left but those stops below 65 look pretty juicy to me. That's where I will keep my target then. Am I finally graduating to a 'hunter trader'?
Some reflection.
One of my biggest drawback is frequently changing profit targets. I am working hard to have the mentality that my orders are 'set in stone'. This allows me to pick my targets more realistically BEFORE I enter the trade. However, price action is the king and I should allow some flexibility in my targets. The challenge is doing this process with as little emotion as possible.
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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
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Still Short. MES came agonisingly close to my profit target (moved up from 65 to 71). It's whiplashing at the moment and back to my entry price of 4190. hmmm.
It's well past bedtime for me. I moved up my exit to 4176 as a new LOD looks unlikely today. If it's not hit today, I am going to let this baby stay in the market for another day or 2.
Another example of getting the price action & bigger picture right but unable to capitalise. However, I have minimal regret as I was aiming for big profit i.e 80% ATR. I need to get used to giving up paper profits, anyways. That's the only way to grab gigantic profits.
At the end of the day, it's all valuable lesson regarding support and resistance and I have to strike the balance between 'ambitious but less likely target's vs 'conservative but realistic targets'.
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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
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Timeframe dilemma.
I have 3 choices.
1. To 'day-trade' which means continue what I have been doing for the last 2 weeks. i.e Screentime for atleast 3 hours from RTH open to EU close (9.30 PM local time in Asia for me) and then ideally sleep.
2. Fixed entry @ RTH open and fixed exit @ the End of the Day EOD.
3. Finally Overnight holding and multiday positions.
Over the last 2 weeks, I have realised that my option 1 is NOT an option in the long-term. Not only it messes up my sleep cycle, the screen-staring for the full RTH session is too tempting and not desirable (even if I'm profitable). It's the most seductive option, unfortunately. Not to mention the temptation to stay awake late and it's impact the following day.
The second option of 'almost' automatic trading looks easy/lazy, proven profitable in the past and hence very attractive. It involves less than 30 minutes prep and a maximum 1 hr screentime of RTH hours, mostly the opening balance.
Finally, the multi-day or swing positions. This is where I want to be and ideal for long term. aka. when I am old. . I know that this has been recommended by many successful traders including Linda R, Larry W and even favored by BigMike and Tigertrader. However, I don't have the edge at the moment but in the process of collecting data.
Holding my position into Opex weekend made me reflect on my long term viable trading style. I will do more 'pondering' over the weekend.
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1 and 3 are what I am looking at, though I don't have the sleep problem as you do. The only issue with number 3 is the ridiculous amount of additional capital one has to have just to hold a position through a 1-hour break. I wish they would change this rule. Then, I would likely be doing number 3 myself. I think the "big money" purposefully uses the 1-hour break to take out the small traders regularly. All one has to do is look at the charts for the ETH sessions to see how the moves span across the daily break regularly.
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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
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My short from last week was covered @ 4175 for a measly 15 points after 4 days. Boring to sit on the sidelines and not worth it. I can rule out swing trading choice for now
Back to day-trading mode.
I'm going to be more aggressive with my MES trade size, upto 5. Since I noticed increased stress and expectation when I tried it in the past, I have decided to take a mini break from public journaling. It will be quiet for a while with NO posting but I will try to give weekly updates.
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Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Posts: 1,599 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 3,001 given,
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Breakeven week. Nothing exciting in terms of my trades. Short bias this week which worked early on but gave up the profit on Friday's surprising bullish move. I did try tp push my size to 3 with expected and understandable anxiety but getting over it. Hope to push it upto max 5 (only on positive trades).
Major update to my charting tools.
I have been using Linnsoft/Investor RT & DTN data combo for at-least 5 years now. Though I was quite happy with the features, I felt the price was a bit too much. 250 CAD/year is not exorbitant but still meaningful overhead expense, particularly for a breakeven or marginally profitable trader.
Since Tradingview was able to offer most of what I need at a fraction of the cost, I tried it for few months but hampered by their lack of volume/tick bars. i.e Instead of 5 minutes bar, I wanted 5000 volume or 1000 tick per bar and they didn't have the option now.
SierraChart seems to have the best of both worlds. Cost is around 50 CAD/month and super user friendly (after the initial hurdle for non tech person like me). Most of last week was spent on exploring it's featues and it looks very promising.
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. I know that this has been recommended by many successful traders including Linda R, Larry W and even favored by BigMike and Tigertrader. However, I don't have the edge at the moment but in the process of collecting data. 
