HumbleTrader's next chapter - futures io
futures io



HumbleTrader's next chapter


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Narcissus with 162 posts (134 thanks)
    2. looks_two Anagami with 4 posts (7 thanks)
    3. looks_3 glennts with 2 posts (9 thanks)
    4. looks_4 GFIs1 with 2 posts (6 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one glennts with 4.5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two GFIs1 with 3 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Anagami with 1.8 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Narcissus with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 4,566 views
    2. thumb_up 158 thanks given
    3. group 8 followers
    1. forum 169 posts
    2. attach_file 83 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 150,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

HumbleTrader's next chapter

(login for full post details)
  #41 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
Legendary , Always learning
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor RT
Broker: IB & IQ DTN
Trading: MES, SPY
 
Narcissus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,273 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,485 given, 1,807 received

Recap - I am currently testing whether past market behaviours under similar conditions have any statistical edge.

First update.

2 weeks up. So far signals are reasonably reliable but when neutral, I'm using my judgement and also scaling in/out discretionary basis. To avoid these 2 factors interfering the interpretation, I'm making a significant change. I will go all in @ RTH and all out @ close. I will still be trading YM ETF DIA for this and initiate 50 lot for weak signal and 100 for strong signal.

(Majority of the time, I get 1 of these 4 suggestions - Weak/Strong Bull, Weak/Strong Bear). When I get neutral signal, I will use just 1 criteria pertaining to that day. e.g FOMC, GDP, NFP, 1st or last month of trading day etc. In that way, I will be trading every day and hence more data points to analyse.

Second update.

I have decided to change my instrument from YM to ES (again). In the long run, I will be trading Emini ES anyways b'cad of its liquidity & the available research data but in the short term, it's lot easier to learn and share ideas with traders who predominantly trade ES.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Narcissus for this post:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
NT8 - Footprint Chart adding on code
NinjaTrader
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #42 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
Legendary , Always learning
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor RT
Broker: IB & IQ DTN
Trading: MES, SPY
 
Narcissus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,273 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,485 given, 1,807 received

I am also wondering about the futility of my project. i.e testing the stats. It's about what happened in the past. Even if it doesn't repeat itself during my test month, it DID happen and doesn't make it invalid. It just didn't repeat itself during this window. Then what the hell am i doing and is there a value in it?

Firstly, it makes me more aware of Mr. Market's past behaviour. Most are random but there are also many repetitive seasonal patterns. i.e End of month, Opex behavior, Tuesdays etc. There are also several patterns which makes psychological sense in terms of crowd behaviour. i.e Gap UP in strong markets often revert and Gap Down markets in weak market often bounce - To me it means trapping suckers & FOMO traders. The key here is not just about finding statistical anomalies. It's also about trying to identify potential causal definition (still theoretical but can be useful) and then asking 'is it likely to repeat in TODAY's condition?'

Secondly, it provides a framework for my prep and approach. 1st of 4 steps in my trading preparation. If the stats are not aligned with my 2nd step of Trend and momentum interpretation, I will be less likely to trade it. At the very least, I will be mindful that it's a counter-history trade. I am also not straight jacketed to one methodology i.e Breakout/reversal/trend. I will trade what's in front of me.

Finally, I am becoming fully aware of the enormity of the task at hand. Big thanks to @tigertrader for his generosity in sharing his knowledge, experience & approach to trading. More importantly his sincere effort to encourage the retail market (mostly by pointing out the futility of their flawed thinking and lazy effort). When I was active here few years ago, I remember reading his posts and many of them didn't make much sense and often I thought something like 'what's that got to do with ES gaping up now'. Now, I am having several aahaa moments. I sincerely wish every one of the newbies read the spoo thread (which will take several weeks but high yield work would be reading only @Big Mike, @josh and tigertrader's comments. That will take 4-7 days but subsequent home work will take several months though). I know I'm too optimistic about retail getting this message. I sincerely believe that 'When the student is ready, teacher will appear'. Well, the teacher is that thread. SPOO is the closest thing to a mentor for retail market.

Eventually I will have a birds eye view of the Feds, Bonds, Liquidity, Intermarket behavior and voraciously learning about it. Giving myself atleast 6 to 12 months. I will continue to trade MES though and testing few execution styles in addition to stats. Fortunately i have the time and the money to pursue my passion. Until then, I will trade with my myopic view but always learning and always broadening my vision.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Narcissus for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #43 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
Legendary , Always learning
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor RT
Broker: IB & IQ DTN
Trading: MES, SPY
 
Narcissus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,273 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,485 given, 1,807 received


Vix day.

Today's homework for me is to know more about VIX, how ES behaves during various periods of VIX range and little bit about VIX options put call ratio. Aim is to find it's efficacy in intra-day predictability of ES but later project will involve it's link with short term swing movements too.

Fun fact: Over the last 20 years, we traded at current vix levels of 25 or above on 700+ occasions.

We closed above 2% on 125+ occasions and below 2% on 175+ occasions. That's huge. I mean, almost 50% of the times, we have this monster closes of +2%.

As a rule of thumb, it's more profitable to fade the moves with good profitability of >1.5.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Narcissus for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #44 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
Legendary , Always learning
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor RT
Broker: IB & IQ DTN
Trading: MES, SPY
 
Narcissus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,273 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,485 given, 1,807 received

May 31 2022. Tuesday Prep and Strategy

Stats are mildly bearish as I wrote on Friday. Overnight action confirms that month end selling is alive and kicking.

Gap down open. I will be shorting 50 DIA and stay till the end as my primary strategy to test the stats.

However, I will also be trading MES on a discretionary basis and will be looking to short till vwap area. Above that, I will throw in my towel.

Trend day potential is high due to high ON ATR, increased Rel Volume and seasonal factors. However, rotations can be big and hence my size will be small at 1 or 2 with big stops.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #45 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
Legendary , Always learning
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor RT
Broker: IB & IQ DTN
Trading: MES, SPY
 
Narcissus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,273 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,485 given, 1,807 received

May 31 2022 - Review

Bearish bias initially seemed to be the theme early on in the day, with very strong selling but it fizzled out just above 4100. The subsequent move up was steady, with vwap test first and then all the way upto the opening price and then chopped till EOD.

I closed my position at the end of the day as per my plan. Expected a loser but turned out to be a breakeven scratch trade.

I only traded DIA today. Unable to trade MES as my confidence in bears became less after 30 mins. Playing long would be counter-trend and i didn't want to do that for a while.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #46 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
Legendary , Always learning
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor RT
Broker: IB & IQ DTN
Trading: MES, SPY
 
Narcissus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,273 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,485 given, 1,807 received

Strategy & Execution updates:

1. From now on I will trade SPY 100 Entry @ RTH open for strong signals (50 for weak signals). Exit Market on Close orders. No scaling in/out business. This is to ensure clean data for testing stat's efficiency. (Though it may sound very passive to may active scalpers and day-traders, I'm actually learning a lot as I'm in the market with all the random price gyrations. It's quite useful in monitoring my thoughts and feelings and overall helping me to blunt the emotions secondary to P&L).

2. I will trade MES on a discretionary basis from RTH open to close. No overnight positions. Max 3 contracts. Entry and exit will depend on EMA crossing system. 1 month testing starting June 1, tomorrow. More details to follow later today.

3. I am also considering trading a new strategy from July 1 for a month. This is unusual for me but quite common with the pros, i believe. Opening a new MES position after EOD @ Asia open and flat at @ RTH open. Literally the reverse of day-trading but no active trading between entry and exit. It's based on stats again. i.e the likelihood of opening location of the following day. Will give more thought into it's execution and will post here in a week.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #47 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
Legendary , Always learning
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor RT
Broker: IB & IQ DTN
Trading: MES, SPY
 
Narcissus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,273 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,485 given, 1,807 received

June 1 2022 Wednesday. Prep.

No clear edge in stats today. Very unusual indeed. I check 2 price action, 2 seasonal and 2 volatility stats. It's almost a tie.

Didn't want to force a trade. Hence decided to wait and see.

Initiated short after buyers failed to take Y-H and sellers pushed it to vwap. Ideal Buy location actually but the strength of the sellers and the quick moves made me bet on sellers.

My rule was to carry till EOD but I broke it and scaled out 50. Aimed to short again but the move was straight down to Y-L. I will work on this problem in the near future with MES trading. It's never easy to add position after taking quick profit.

I will leave 50 SPY till EOD and may add 50 if we bounce upto vwap.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Narcissus for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #48 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
Legendary , Always learning
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor RT
Broker: IB & IQ DTN
Trading: MES, SPY
 
Narcissus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,273 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,485 given, 1,807 received

June 1 2022 - Summary

Executed my plan reasonably well.

I wrote about scaling out impulsively in my previous post. I tried to scale in later in the day but chickened out in few mins and got out. Didn't want to add @ potential LOD but should have used ATR which was still only @ 70% and hence a bit room left in the move.

However, decided to let the 1/2 size till EOD. Though i gave up some of my paper gains, it's Mr Market who giveth.

I will be using ATR exits after this trial month and hence not too worried about leaving money on the table for now.



P.S. I did make an error in my stats. I was looking for a period with price above 20 DMA. We actually moved up above 3 days ago and it's bearish. This bolsters well for my conviction in them.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #49 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
Legendary , Always learning
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor RT
Broker: IB & IQ DTN
Trading: MES, SPY
 
Narcissus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,273 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,485 given, 1,807 received

June 2 2022 Prep.

Starts are strongly bullish.

ON action - inside Y-Range but high range.

Trend and momentum indicators are bearish, about 10 mins before open now. Ideally I would wait for that to turn neutral but I'm not making any exceptions in my execution for the next 2 weeks.

Plan. 100 SPY long @ open and exit at close. No in/out in the middle.

I may day trade MES small. Let's see.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #50 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
Legendary , Always learning
Vancouver Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor RT
Broker: IB & IQ DTN
Trading: MES, SPY
 
Narcissus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,273 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,485 given, 1,807 received


June 2 2022 commentary

I usually post EOD summary only but today is very interesting and somewhat special 2 me.

Positives - I truly experienced the 'don't care' mentality after entering my SPY long @ market open. Despite not having a stop and EOD close, I fully accepted the odds and the max risk. I also know the utility of this strategy and hence quite comfortable with that.

Negative - Whenever I think i 'nailed' it with my discretionary trading, market has a way to teach me a lesson again.

After patiently waiting for MES to make a bottom, I went long at 88 with a wide stop at LOD. It looked promising but stopped me out at 78. I'm actually quite comfortable with hard stops which was quite hard in the past.

I took a jab again at 85 after seeing some strength with stop at LOD again. Re-attempting in the same direction after being stopped out is also another improvement for me. This time it was a beautiful ripper to vwap and above. Sitting on a 25 pts profit after risking 10 pts. Here is the dilemma. Do I add @ vwap pullback or go flat and take profits? My actual final target is still 40 pts away but I'm sitting on just 1 contract. NO clear plan and Mr Market don't reward the unprepared. MES made a surprising and violent move down and made a new LOD. Stopped out again from +25 points in -10 in few mins. As I am typing this, it has made 40 points to make a new HOD! Though My SPY long is not out of the woods yet it's definitely laughing at my discretionary (buried) 2xMES today!

Lessons -
1. Plan the trade and trade the plan. (Like my SPY)
2. Always enter with 2 contracts MES with pre-defined location for scale out.
3. If I am entering with 1 contract only, at-least I should move my stop to BE after a significant move in my direction. Giving up paper profit hurts but lot less that real money.
4. Timing the market is an illusion.
5. My hardwork should be before the market opens, not after.

However, I am beginning to enter into the semi-pro arena (I think) with lots of drills during RTH and plenty of homework looking into stats and optimizing my execution strategies. Still several months away (could be even 1-2 years) but my confidence is growing and more importantly I'm loving it.

Edit - After we reached 90% ATR, I scaled out 50 SPY. Though it's not in my today's plan, it's in my list of optimisation options. I think today is an auspicious day to bank some profit after 2 MES long fishes not only escaped my firm grip but even costed me some. 50 more SPY still long and will hold EOD as I don't giving up some profit now. However, I suspect there is more juice left in this rally as the RV is high and we could take Y-H. All this hardwork by buyers down below is not to have an inside day!

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > HumbleTrader's next chapter


Last Updated on June 30, 2022


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
     



Copyright © 2022 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts