HumbleTrader's next chapter

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Easy win today. No fuss and made up for most of thursday's loss. Finished slightly green for the week. 2023 is not bad so far and I dug myself out of the early slump.

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Weekly performance review

Despite the jet-lag, time constraints and the challenges in cultural transition from Asia to North America, I was determined to trade.

The RTH moves were choppy with big swings during ETH. Frustrating at times but managed to close green for the week.

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I have made the difficult decision to NOT trade for the next 6 weeks.

Though my strategy needs only 15 minutes a day for BOTH analysis and execution of my trades, psychologically I'm thinking about it during the entire RTH 7+ hours. Not to mention the frequent temptation to check the market data.

It's quite distracting & also exhausting, especially when I am working 50+ day hours a week and a couple of night shifts.

Last but not the least, RTH starts @ 630 AM in Vancouver and that's my 'prime time' for exercise.

Hence, I decided to focus on my fitness and work for the next 6 weeks. I will be back in early May. I hope ES will still be around.

Good luck everyone.

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Wrapping up my job in Vancouver this weekend and flying back to Asia. My next assignment is in July. That means I have almost 8 full weeks of trading.

I'm happy with my discipline during the last month when I did NOT trade. Obviously it was not easy with ready access to market data and the execution app from my phone. Kudos to me.

Despite staying in the sideline, I spent 30-60 minutes everyday, post RTH close, analysing my signals ( i.e hypothetical returns) and the price action. I'm very confident with my system now and can't wait to start trading from Monday.

My timeframe remains the same. RTH open entry @ 9:30 EST and RTH close exit @ 16:00 EST. My position will be 100 SPY.

Parallel to this (semi) automatic trading of SPY, I will also trade MES (3 contracts max) as discretionary intra-day trading with approximate holding time of 60 to 90 minutes.

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Monday trading was a warm-up day due to jet lag.

My signals were strongly bearish but the price action was lame with narrow range.

Entry RTH open @ 4154 and exit 4152 @ close.

Result = + 2 points MES

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Recap of my trading methodology. It helps me to have clarity and hopefully other traders find some value too.

Instrument - SPY (can be applied to MES too).
Entry time - 930 EST & Exit time - 1600 EST.
(Few exceptions may include FED, NFP, Holidays etc.)

1. Establishing bias based on historical data.

a. I analyse 6 variables - Price/Gap/Trend/Season/Vix/Overnight.
b Result from the last 20 years trading data is categorised in 5 point likert scale -
(Strong bullish- Weak bullish - Neutral - Weak Bearish - Strong Bearish)
c. RTH opening print is graded in 2 variables - Gap size & Price location

Once I complete the above process, my final homework will look something like this (from yesterday)

2. Deciding on entry points

Once the decision to short the market was made (during pre-market prep), I will look at my EMA croosover system. I MUST place my short @ RTH open. The only exception to this is a Strong Bullish trend defined by price above higher time frame 34/50 and lower time frame 5/13. In that case, I wait for the short term EMA to turn bearish and then enter 'short'. Reverse for long entries.

3. Deciding on exit points

After trying ATR based exits, I have decided that 1600 EST works the best.

It's embarassing to admit that this passive method of trading has been the most profitable for me. My discretionary day-trading has mostly been breakeven at best (despite feeling good with all the live screen staring of dancing candles, technical analysis of market internals and trying to time my entries/exits at optimal points)

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I thought yesterday's ES range was lame. How do I describe today's range? Pathetic? I'm running out of adjectives!

I guess this is what we have to deal with in this current low VIX environment. I'm NOT adjusting my trading size or strategy yet as this debt ceiling drama or interest rate hike talks can wake up the volatility fairly quickly.

My bias was neutral today. Hence I decided to trade with the downtrend opening and shorted.

Result = + 2 points.

P.S. I'm seeing some pick up in volatitily during the closing 15 minutes but too little and too late for me.

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Wednesday Prep.

ES currently @ 4166. Big gap UP open - Post CPI - and well above yesterday's high.

My stats are bearish for this set-up but I'm NOT going to short this strong bullish trend YET. I will wait for weakness first. i.e. Price to move below 5/13 EMA.

4175 looks like a nice resistance point. If I manage to get in there, then I will look at Y-H 4145 as profit target. 4200 would be the 'oops' price. Let's see.

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That's quick!

Entered Short @ 4167 after seeing some weakness. Within ten minutes, my target of 4145 was hit.

Result = +22 points. That's more than Yesterday's ATR in 10 minutes today.

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My second stab at the bounce also worked swiftly. Entry 59 and out at 42 for 17 points in less than 10 minutes. Again

Though price eventually reached 4125, I'm happy that I was able to grab 40 points. More importantly, it happened with perfect & pre-planned entry points and very little adverse excursion of price.

I have my final trade thesis with limit sell order @ 4152. Looks like it may not be filled and I'm ok with that. End of the day for me.