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HumbleTrader's next chapter

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  #21 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
Legendary , Always learning
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Experience: Intermediate
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Long DIA at open. 1/4 size only as my IRT charting is not working.

Broke my rule briefly and became flat for a small profit.

Decided to become long again. Will hold till EOD.

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  #22 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
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Experience: Intermediate
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May 23 2022 Monday- Summary

Executed as per my plan.

Long @ open 1/4. Flat after 30 minutes. This is against my rules as I must carry forward my positions till the end of the day. My 'gut feeling' that we are going to see a reversal day was ignored and stats followed. 1/4 Long position again on IB breakout. And rewarded.

Though position size is small, that's intentional risk management (due to technical issues and poor internet connectivity).


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  #23 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
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May 24 Tuesday 2022 Prep

Stats are Bearish for today, particularly if we gap down.

My trade plan will be posted closer to the RTH open as gap up open is still possible.

I need to do homework about Gap closures and safe places to enter. For instance, we had gap up YM open yesterday and the gap wasn't closed. I was tempted to add positions to my long when gap closure was in progress. However, I couldn't tell whether that was a bullish or bearish sign. Will try and found out.

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  #24 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
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Gap up stats - Homework

>50% ATR Gap Up and Opening above yesterday's high (bullish close) = 250 days

Result - Overall mildly bullish with profit factor 1.24

In a bear market, even more profitable at 1.5

-------

Half the gap was filled on 50% of the times.

Is it profitable to buy the Pullback when 50% of the gap is closed? Not really.

Time - Profit factor

@ 15 mins - 0.68
@ 30 mins - 0.64
@ 60 mins - 0.85
@ 2 hrs - 0.80
@ 3 hrs - 0.89

How does it translate to my strategy?

I should be more bearish as prices retrace back to 1/2 the gap level. Ideally I should consider abandoning my long position @ 1/2 gap closure rather than adding. Even reverse position to short if the gap is rejected swiftly within 30 mins.

Interesting. Not what I have been doing. Will try this in the future.

Caveat - If the the gap is closed fully within EU session, then its profitable to buy at or below Y-C.

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  #25 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
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MAY 24 2022 TUESDAY STRATEGY

Stats - Gap down open after closing high yesterday favors a down move today.

Plan - 50 DIA short @ RTH open and stay till EOD.

Then scale in @ Y-H (this will have a small stop loss)

If we take out Y-L 32432, then I will scale in once or twice any rebound to vWAP or opening price.

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  #26 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
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May 24 Post Market review

Executed as per plan. Stats didn't work out.

Short at open. Once Y-L was taken out, scaled in. Once price bounced all the way back up to opening price, realised the strength of the Bulls and closed 1/2 for a loss. Rest stayed until EOD as per plan.

Overall losing day but happy with execution.

Turning a winner into a loser is always painful but my goal for the next 3 weeks is to test this system and not focusing too much on P&L.

However, I'm also looking at adjusting my executions and targets. Eventually the same day may look like, 2 YM short @ open. 1 profit taking below Y-L. 1 Scale in @ vWAP. Stop loss at Y-C . Would have been a breakeven or small + day even when stats failed.

I would have even considered reversal long at Y-C as stats are no longer bearish in that scenario.


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  #27 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
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Chart Porn

I use 4 charts (1 Screen only!)

1st is a daily bar chart - To constantly remind me about the higher time frame. This is the only chart with the current price to ensure I look at it frequently

2nd is EMA crossover ribbon with vwap. To remind me of the Trend and the momentum. Delta in the bottom.

3rd is the Equivolume Candle stick 5 mins to see the strength of buyers/sellers

4th is Renko equivolume bars to have a visual view of accumulation/distribution.

I also have a small notepad window to write down my thoughts and feelings live which is very helpful as I record my screen from RTH open to EU close.

That's all.


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  #28 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
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Posts: 1,273 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,485 given, 1,807 received

Running P&L

I found this feature of Tradervue quite helpful.

Last 2 weeks snapshot attached. (From most bullish to least)

I will analyse this and the MFE MAE data to decide on profit taking points and stop loss.


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  #29 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
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Posts: 1,273 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,485 given, 1,807 received

Stats Session - Outside Bullish Reversal day

Contrary to my belief that we often see bullish follow through with price moving higher, stats do not support this view. It's not bearish either.

Just over 230 times we had such occurences in the last 20 years. Approx 5%

Win rate is just over 50% but average losers are bigger than winners. Hence Profit ratio is neutral.

However, if you look at Bear markets only, i.e <200 MA, then it's slightly bullish and in Bull Markets, it's slightly bearish. Not significant enough for me to consider unless other seasonal factors line up.

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  #30 (permalink)
 Narcissus 
Legendary , Always learning
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Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor RT
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Posts: 1,273 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 2,485 given, 1,807 received


May 25 2022 Wednesday - Prep and Strategy

Stats suggest bearish close today if we open gap down between Y-O and Y-C.

My strategy is to short the open 1/2 size.

My 1st scale is likely around 32k or Y-C area & stop above Y-H. Obvious locations and ripe for hunting and hence bit reluctant. Will be guided by Delta and volume.

If we take the ONL, then will feel more confident in scaling @ vwap bounce.

In terms of targets, since RelVol is high Overnight, Trend day expectation has increased for a down move, esp. after 32k bull trap ON. Big fish today? Will see.

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