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Working on strategies and trying to get a feel of what's great and realistic expectations. I realize there are other metrics to look at too. Focusing on this one for now.
Trading ES futures.
1. What would be the maximum profit factor you have achieved over a period of a month?
2. Was it by automated trading or manual?
3. What time frames did you trade on to achieve that profit factor?
4. How many trades (ballpark) in that stellar month?
Thanks for your help.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I achieved just over a 10 profit factor tr as ding ES on a 5 minute chart for the month of December,.
It was discretionary scalping. Scaling into value areas of the overall long-term trend. For the month I traded roughly around 300 trades. However my 6 month profit factor is much more down to earth at around 2.4. Hope that helps.
Not sure what your objective here is, high profit factors over a one month period are not that elusive. And not that meaningful. I think @SomePsychoDude 's comment is spot on.
Last year I had a 5 minute automated ES strategy with a PF one month of 53. Only 5 trades though. And the same strategy had 4 other months with an infinite profit factor, but only 1 trade. Same strategy also had 3 losing months though.
For the whole year of 2021, the profit factor was 2.2.
Over the last 8 years, the profit factor was 1.59.
Yes it helps a lot. Good job. 2.2 is great. 53 is even better :-) net profit is all that matters. My question comes more from refining 3 min strategy and getting realistic limits.
I think the number of trades in a month are key with relation to profit factor. to refine strategy For example, over 100 trades a month in small time period aiming for over 2 PF would put a startegy to intense test due to different scenarios.
The results I showed were live real time hypothetical results.
I would be VERY careful about "refining" your strategy. It is so easy to create a better backtest, but 90% of the time such efforts are actually counter productive.
Well I'm still working on it. Using market replay not backtesting. So far attached is the result. A few large losing trades to fix. It's a 3 min strategy with 1 contract just over a month. will run it over 3-6 months once i refine it a bit more.
Good Luck, I hope it works out for you. But just keep in mind that it is dangerous to say "a few large losing trades to fix." It is a slippery slope to curvefitting and real time failure.
