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Tiger's Price Action Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
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Greetings everyone,

I'd like briefly introduce myself and then get down to business. First, a little history:

I've been 'hobbying' in trading for several years, having gone from swing trading momentum stocks, to day trading momentum stocks, to trading options, and finally, around last summer, I started trading futures. The end of 2009 wasn't the best of times as I kept bouncing from instrument to instrument and indicator to indicator. Needless to say, I lost money, but nothing really bad.

At the beginning of 2010 I came to realize that I should just focus on a single market and try to learn that. I played around with YM, TF, GC, ZS, and CL. For some reason, CL really appeals to me, and I've been focusing on that instrument exclusively since April. Of course, I lost money January - April. During the first quarter of 2010, I experimented with various indicators and time frames, trading 1 minute and tick charts. I was afraid to trade any higher time frame because I didn't want the risk exposure. Around May, things finally started to click, and for the next several months I was consistently profitable and made back all my losses from the year, plus some.

Around July, things slowed down considerably, and I found myself taking fewer and fewer trades. My indicator that had served me so well for the preceding several months was now giving me many false signals, but more disturbingly, NOT giving me signals when I could clearly see the market moving.

So at the end of August, while I still had a modest profit on the year, I decided to rip up my trading plan and start over. I've been studying charts, reading books, and doing lots of simulated trading. I still haven't been able to get my arms around this, and have yet to write down a single rule.

Since I'm still using a 20 period moving average and volume, I supposed I'm not purely price action yet. My main setup is trading pullbacks to the 20 ema.

Here's what I did today. I'm trading 1 contract on the 5 minute chart.

Trade #1:
Oil had been coming down all night and bottomed around 02:00 before beginning a climb up. At 04:50 it made its 3rd failed push to go higher and I thought about going short. However, I'm loathe to short an uptrend, no matter how brief, so I waited for confirmation. The 05:15 down bar looked good, and I put a stop order 1 tick below and entered short at 81.33 on the next bar. Still being nervous about shorting this uptrend, I moved my stop to BE +1 after 5 ticks to the good and was taken out BE +1.

Trade #2
After oil failed to drop, I expected it to bounce of the ema. The 05:35 bar was a strong up bar and I went long at the open of the next bar for +25 ticks.

The pullback at 05:55 was the only pullback for almost an hour and I just watched it go up. Still not good enough of a trader to get into a leg like that, so I was going to wait for a pullback.

Trade #3
The big drop at 06:55 was more than I was expecting. I thought that bar had a lot of downward momentum, and since it closed near its extreme, I went short on the open of the next bar at 81.89. This is a great example of violating a rule, since there was news coming out at 07:00 and I totally forgot about it. Stopped out with 2 ticks of slip. -13 ticks.

Trade #4
I know I'm not supposed to get angry, but after I got stopped out, oil dropped 25 ticks. I saw the 07:10 bar as a failed attempt to return to the uptrend, so I went short on the 07:15 bar at 81.79 and was stopped out on the next bar. -11 ticks.

Trade #5
The 07:20 strong up bar convinced me that the trend was returning, and when the 07:25 bar retraced to the ema, I went long at the close and was stopped out on the next bar. -11 ticks.

Trade #6
It was obvious to me that I was over trading and getting a little emotional, so I sat back for awhile to watch and see what the market was going to do. After whipsawing around the ema for 3 bars, the 08:15 formed a doji right at the top of the 3 previous bars and failed to close below the ema. I went long on the next bar, but it retraced on me on the 08:25 bar and I got out BE +1.

Six trades was enough, so I called it a day. Down 8 ticks on 6 trades.

Tomorrow is another day.

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 Big Mike 
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Hi Tiger, thanks for your detailed post. Good to see your journal here, I look forward to learning more about your method and how you execute on it in the coming days.

Mike

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 PandaWarrior 
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Tiger45 View Post
Greetings everyone,

I'd like briefly introduce myself and then get down to business. First, a little history:

I've been 'hobbying' in trading for several years, having gone from swing trading momentum stocks, to day trading momentum stocks, to trading options, and finally, around last summer, I started trading futures. The end of 2009 wasn't the best of times as I kept bouncing from instrument to instrument and indicator to indicator. Needless to say, I lost money, but nothing really bad.

At the beginning of 2010 I came to realize that I should just focus on a single market and try to learn that. I played around with YM, TF, GC, ZS, and CL. For some reason, CL really appeals to me, and I've been focusing on that instrument exclusively since April. Of course, I lost money January - April. During the first quarter of 2010, I experimented with various indicators and time frames, trading 1 minute and tick charts. I was afraid to trade any higher time frame because I didn't want the risk exposure. Around May, things finally started to click, and for the next several months I was consistently profitable and made back all my losses from the year, plus some.

Around July, things slowed down considerably, and I found myself taking fewer and fewer trades. My indicator that had served me so well for the preceding several months was now giving me many false signals, but more disturbingly, NOT giving me signals when I could clearly see the market moving.

So at the end of August, while I still had a modest profit on the year, I decided to rip up my trading plan and start over. I've been studying charts, reading books, and doing lots of simulated trading. I still haven't been able to get my arms around this, and have yet to write down a single rule.

Since I'm still using a 20 period moving average and volume, I supposed I'm not purely price action yet. My main setup is trading pullbacks to the 20 ema.

Here's what I did today. I'm trading 1 contract on the 5 minute chart.

Trade #1:
Oil had been coming down all night and bottomed around 02:00 before beginning a climb up. At 04:50 it made its 3rd failed push to go higher and I thought about going short. However, I'm loathe to short an uptrend, no matter how brief, so I waited for confirmation. The 05:15 down bar looked good, and I put a stop order 1 tick below and entered short at 81.33 on the next bar. Still being nervous about shorting this uptrend, I moved my stop to BE +1 after 5 ticks to the good and was taken out BE +1.

Trade #2
After oil failed to drop, I expected it to bounce of the ema. The 05:35 bar was a strong up bar and I went long at the open of the next bar for +25 ticks.

The pullback at 05:55 was the only pullback for almost an hour and I just watched it go up. Still not good enough of a trader to get into a leg like that, so I was going to wait for a pullback.

Trade #3
The big drop at 06:55 was more than I was expecting. I thought that bar had a lot of downward momentum, and since it closed near its extreme, I went short on the open of the next bar at 81.89. This is a great example of violating a rule, since there was news coming out at 07:00 and I totally forgot about it. Stopped out with 2 ticks of slip. -13 ticks.

Trade #4
I know I'm not supposed to get angry, but after I got stopped out, oil dropped 25 ticks. I saw the 07:10 bar as a failed attempt to return to the uptrend, so I went short on the 07:15 bar at 81.79 and was stopped out on the next bar. -11 ticks.

Trade #5
The 07:20 strong up bar convinced me that the trend was returning, and when the 07:25 bar retraced to the ema, I went long at the close and was stopped out on the next bar. -11 ticks.

Trade #6
It was obvious to me that I was over trading and getting a little emotional, so I sat back for awhile to watch and see what the market was going to do. After whipsawing around the ema for 3 bars, the 08:15 formed a doji right at the top of the 3 previous bars and failed to close below the ema. I went long on the next bar, but it retraced on me on the 08:25 bar and I got out BE +1.

Six trades was enough, so I called it a day. Down 8 ticks on 6 trades.

Tomorrow is another day.

A lot of CL traders like range bars including me...I am NOT an expert but here is what the same price action looked like using the same 20 EMA but using a 6 range bar and a 10 tick profit target.

TechSmith | Screencast.com, online video sharing, 2010-10-04_2006

the 5 minute chart is messy but the range bar is pretty clear....imho anyway....and I am an admitted novice on time based charts.

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 cory 
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Tiger45 View Post
Greetings everyone,

...
Trade #6
It was obvious to me that I was over trading and getting a little emotional, so I sat back for awhile to watch and see what the market was going to do. After whipsawing around the ema for 3 bars, the 08:15 formed a doji right at the top of the 3 previous bars and failed to close below the ema. I went long on the next bar, but it retraced on me on the 08:25 bar and I got out BE +1.

Six trades was enough, so I called it a day. Down 8 ticks on 6 trades.

Tomorrow is another day.

nice, I watched a zig zag forming then I saw a hammer doji that made me look for long then it broke the down t/l and I jumped in. -sim trade.

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  #6 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
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aztrader9 View Post
A lot of CL traders like range bars including me...I am NOT an expert but here is what the same price action looked like using the same 20 EMA but using a 6 range bar and a 10 tick profit target.

TechSmith | Screencast.com, online video sharing, 2010-10-04_2006

the 5 minute chart is messy but the range bar is pretty clear....imho anyway....and I am an admitted novice on time based charts.

Thanks for that. It looks interesting. I know the Woodie's people are big range bar fans. Right now I'm trying to focus on 1 chart, but I'll give that a look on the weekend. I'm still new to NT and don't know much of what it's capable of.

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  #7 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
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cory View Post
nice, I watched a zig zag forming then I saw a hammer doji that made me look for long then it broke the down t/l and I jumped in. -sim trade.

Glad that worked for you. On a few of my trades, I had the right idea, but there wasn't enough follow through on the market for me to get a good trade in. I may experiment with 2 contracts and see how that works. I could have gotten 10 ticks on this trade on the first contract.

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 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
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Up 18 ticks today, but I think a better trader would have done a lot better. With my 20/20 hind sight, I see great opportunity.

I started off the morning by missing an entry that I like to take (see circle). The market was in an uptrend, then a big down bar, followed by a small inside bar with trend. It's always nicer when the next bar is a small, with trend bar, but I should have went long right above the close of the doji at 05:05. Next time.

Trade #1
After the long legged doji at 05:30, I drew the triangle and watched it paint. From what I've read, symmetric triangles are consolidation patterns for a with trend entry. When the big bar blasted out at 05:45, I put in a stop order at 87.12 (about midway back down that surge bar) and was filled on the retrace and got 15 ticks.

I've got a trailing stop on my 1 contract, so someday I hope to catch bigger moves like this. Anyway, I watched the market move up and was looking for a pullback entry. I saw the down doji at 06:25 and thought it might be a short entry (it was), but I was too nervous about shorting this market. Had that candle been at the top of the run, I would have done it. After the 06:30 candle painted, I drew the channel lines. I was eagerly waiting for a bounce off the EMA to go long again. When the 06:50 bar painted, I wanted to wait 1 more bar for confirmation of the long trend resumption. The next bar was a doji right at the EMA (hate those), so I figured anything could happen now.

Trade #2
This is the same rule I violated yesterday. I traded on news. I'm never going to do this again. Really. When the news came out at 07:00, oil started dropping, then began a retracement. There was a double bottom that formed right against the trend line 2 bars earlier, and I thought they would serve as resistance now. Wrong. I went short with a market order right at price crossed 82.11 with a few seconds left on the bar. Price kept right on retraceing and took me out, THEN decided to move in my direction. Fortunately, I only risked 9 ticks.

Back to the hunt for a long entry. When the 07:25 bar printed, I drew the trend line and put in an order to go long at 81.18 that wasn't filled.

After that big surge bar at 07:40, price started to consolidate. At 08:00 I drew that triangle. I was expecting this to break out to the upside, but after the 08:00 bar failed to go higher I put in a short order at 82.71 that was not filled.

Trade #3
When the 10:00 bar failed, I went short at 82.76 on the 10:05 bar, about midway back up the signal bar. Still nervous about shorting this, I moved my stop to BE + 1 first opportunity and was taken out.

I watched price return to the EMA at 10:30 and close above. The next 2 bars were doji's and I really don't like them when they are at the EMA. Even though they both closed above the line and the second one had a higher low, I didn't go long. Dang.

Trade #4
The 10:45 bar looked like a big climax bar, and when the next 2 bars failed to go higher, I put in a stop sell at 82.95 and was filled. Got out with only +11 ticks because of that trailing stop thing. Might need to rethink that strategy. It would be nice to know what other people do trading only 1 contract.

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 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
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Up 10 ticks today on 5 trades. My two losers were just plain stupid trades. Always easy to see that in hind sight.

Trade #1
Saw the big surge bar at 06:05, followed by an opposite inside bar, then a small bar back in the same direction. Went long at 82.69 and got 7 ticks before I was stopped out from the retrace. I meant to enter a stop at 82.70, but screwed up the order. Need to remember to hold the control key down, then press the mouse wheel. +7 ticks.

I watched that triangle form and was expecting a break to the down side. It gave a false break out, then drifted sideways for a few bars. Too close to the news to play.

Trade #2
This was a stupid trade. After price reversed from the news, it spiked up on on the 07:50 bar. It made 2 more attempts to pierce that level, and I was planning on shorting the 4th attempt. I put my sell stop order in at 83.16 (right around the top of those 3 pushes), hoping price would make 1 more push up before heading down. Well, it made a push up alright. There really needs to be more rounding and signs of exhaustion before taking these kinds of trades. -11 ticks.

Trade #3
Right after that big surge bar took me out, a shooting star formed on the next bar. I went short at the close of that bar at 83.37. Price went up and took me out before dropping 10 ticks. What I was seeing as a shooting star top was actually just the first bar in the pullback. -11 ticks.

After the real shooting star at 08:40, price drifted sideways for a for 30 minutes or so. I saw the tops of the 09:00 - 09:10 bars topping out, and I was very tempted to go short on the 4th bar at 83.87 but didn't because I just wasn't sure if this was a sideways consolidation before more upside, or was it really a trend change.

Decided to watch. No trade is a trade, right?

Trade #4
While price was moving sideways, I noticed the support level at 83.68. After the 09:25 bar closed below that, I put in an order short at 83.68 and got + 10 ticks.

Trade #5
Price bounced off the EMA for 2 bars, then headed down. I viewed those 2 bars as a pullback on a new down trend, so I was going to wait until the trend confirmed. The 09:50 bar was a Lower Low, and when the 09:55 bear doji formed under the EMA, I went short at the open of the next bar at 83.50 and got +15 ticks.

I really need to learn how to play these pullbacks better. The first step is just to SEE them.

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  #10 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
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Down 21 ticks on 4 trades today. It's frustrating when you lose money on a strongly trending day, where you could have gone short practically anywhere, and made money. My second trade was my gift to better traders. You're welcome.

Trade #1
After the 60 tick drop from the morning's high, I interpreted the down/up candle pair at 07:00 - 07:05 as a two bar reversal and went long at 83.02. I moved my stop to BE + 1, but was taken out with 1 tick of slip. ) ticks on the trade.

Trade #2
Not willing to believe that this was a false breakout, I got back in on the same bar (should be a rule about this) at 83.05 and was stopped out. -11 ticks.

I was waiting for price to move closer to the EMA for a pullback entry. The action around 07:30 - 07:40 was too choppy for me to want to risk an entry. So I watched as price continued to fall. I drew that trend line after I noticed the 08:20 bar spike up.

Trade #3
When the 08:30 bar failed to break out of the trend line, I went short at 82.60 on the open of the next bar and was stopped out. An excellent example of being right and wrong at the same time, since after getting stopped out, price dropped. -11 ticks.

Trade #4
I figured that price wasn't going back to the EMA anytime soon, so I shorted the 2nd lower low. Got a few ticks in my favor, then taken out on the reversal. +1 tick.

I gave back all of my last two day's earnings.

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 Big Mike 
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Tiger45 View Post
Down 21 ticks on 4 trades today. It's frustrating when you lose money on a strongly trending day.

...

I gave back all of my last two day's earnings.

Good job for posting even after a bad day. What you need to honestly ask yourself is why this happened. It could be that your method is not designed to work well during a strong trending day. If that is the case, and you've executed the method well, and you've got a lot of data showing the method works over a large sample size (forward testing), then don't worry about it. Not every day is a winning day.

However, your last statement of "gave back all of my last two days earnings" is a much bigger cause for concern. This indicates a major problem with either the method or the execution of the method. You'll need to solve this. To solve it, you must first identify the problem. Then you must come up with a very specific finely tuned set of rules to help you not make the same problem again. Then you must measure yourself on following those rules on a daily basis.

Mike

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 Tiger45 
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Big Mike View Post
However, your last statement of "gave back all of my last two days earnings" is a much bigger cause for concern. This indicates a major problem with either the method or the execution of the method. You'll need to solve this. To solve it, you must first identify the problem. Then you must come up with a very specific finely tuned set of rules to help you not make the same problem again. Then you must measure yourself on following those rules on a daily basis.

Mike

Still working on my rules. Every day I go over the chart bar by bar to see what I missed and collect stats.

Right now my forehead is still sore from pounding it on my desk. The 06:15 bar is a big surge down followed by an inside bar in the opposite direction, followed by another small bar in the direction of the surge bar. I take this trade whenever is see it - except today I didn't see it.

One of the problems I've identified with my trading is to view the action bar by bar and try not to get into the mindset of waiting for my expectations to unfold. It's OK to see patterns develop and prepare to act after the signal is confirmed, but it's NOT OK to be blind to other possibilities while watching. I coulda shoulda woulda been short this morning at 83.88 had I been paying attention.

Try to be the chart ... ooooohhhhmmmmm ....

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 vegasfoster 
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Seems like you're getting hammered on your counter trades. Granted, I've only been trading CL since April and I am not an expert yet, but on a strong move, I don't consider them until at least the third push and then I like a strong reversal bar indicator. Aggressive entry for me would be at the close of the bar and a conservative entry would be at the break below the higher low after a lower high for a short or vice versa for long. I am more aggressive on a weak move where it fails to form a higher high/lower low or it is an extremely weak higher high/lower low. The strength or weakness of the move governs how quickly I am to dump it if I am wrong.

Trading from 6-9 pst, my monday armchair quarterbacking would only take two counter trades on a 5-minute chart yesterday and today. Both of which would have been winners, of course.

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  #14 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
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vegasfoster View Post
Seems like you're getting hammered on your counter trades.

Trading from 6-9 pst, my monday armchair quarterbacking would only take two counter trades on a 5-minute chart yesterday and today. Both of which would have been winners, of course.

Thanks Vegas. Believe it or not, only my first (and ill attempted retry of my first) trades were counter trend. I thought that after a huge drop that down/up pair of candles would be a reversal.

My 3rd trade was an attempt to rejoin the trend. I only have an 11 tick stop, so I was taken out on that trade 2 bars before the bottom fell out. A little more patience on my part and a better fill would have kept me alive.

My 4th trade was another attempt at rejoining the down trend, but it was too late in the move. I got out BE +1.

Yesterday I did get killed on counter trend trades, but made up for it after the trend reversed and I got with the program. It only took CL 150 ticks to change trend!

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Tiger45 View Post
Greetings everyone,

I'd like briefly introduce myself and then get down to business. First, a little history:

I've been 'hobbying' in trading for several years, having gone from swing trading momentum stocks, to day trading momentum stocks, to trading options, and finally, around last summer, I started trading futures. The end of 2009 wasn't the best of times as I kept bouncing from instrument to instrument and indicator to indicator. Needless to say, I lost money, but nothing really bad.

At the beginning of 2010 I came to realize that I should just focus on a single market and try to learn that. I played around with YM, TF, GC, ZS, and CL. For some reason, CL really appeals to me, and I've been focusing on that instrument exclusively since April. Of course, I lost money January - April. During the first quarter of 2010, I experimented with various indicators and time frames, trading 1 minute and tick charts. I was afraid to trade any higher time frame because I didn't want the risk exposure. Around May, things finally started to click, and for the next several months I was consistently profitable and made back all my losses from the year, plus some.

Around July, things slowed down considerably, and I found myself taking fewer and fewer trades. My indicator that had served me so well for the preceding several months was now giving me many false signals, but more disturbingly, NOT giving me signals when I could clearly see the market moving.

So at the end of August, while I still had a modest profit on the year, I decided to rip up my trading plan and start over. I've been studying charts, reading books, and doing lots of simulated trading. I still haven't been able to get my arms around this, and have yet to write down a single rule.

Since I'm still using a 20 period moving average and volume, I supposed I'm not purely price action yet. My main setup is trading pullbacks to the 20 ema.

Here's what I did today. I'm trading 1 contract on the 5 minute chart.

Trade #1:
Oil had been coming down all night and bottomed around 02:00 before beginning a climb up. At 04:50 it made its 3rd failed push to go higher and I thought about going short. However, I'm loathe to short an uptrend, no matter how brief, so I waited for confirmation. The 05:15 down bar looked good, and I put a stop order 1 tick below and entered short at 81.33 on the next bar. Still being nervous about shorting this uptrend, I moved my stop to BE +1 after 5 ticks to the good and was taken out BE +1.

Trade #2
After oil failed to drop, I expected it to bounce of the ema. The 05:35 bar was a strong up bar and I went long at the open of the next bar for +25 ticks.

The pullback at 05:55 was the only pullback for almost an hour and I just watched it go up. Still not good enough of a trader to get into a leg like that, so I was going to wait for a pullback.

Trade #3
The big drop at 06:55 was more than I was expecting. I thought that bar had a lot of downward momentum, and since it closed near its extreme, I went short on the open of the next bar at 81.89. This is a great example of violating a rule, since there was news coming out at 07:00 and I totally forgot about it. Stopped out with 2 ticks of slip. -13 ticks.

Trade #4
I know I'm not supposed to get angry, but after I got stopped out, oil dropped 25 ticks. I saw the 07:10 bar as a failed attempt to return to the uptrend, so I went short on the 07:15 bar at 81.79 and was stopped out on the next bar. -11 ticks.

Trade #5
The 07:20 strong up bar convinced me that the trend was returning, and when the 07:25 bar retraced to the ema, I went long at the close and was stopped out on the next bar. -11 ticks.

Trade #6
It was obvious to me that I was over trading and getting a little emotional, so I sat back for awhile to watch and see what the market was going to do. After whipsawing around the ema for 3 bars, the 08:15 formed a doji right at the top of the 3 previous bars and failed to close below the ema. I went long on the next bar, but it retraced on me on the 08:25 bar and I got out BE +1.

Six trades was enough, so I called it a day. Down 8 ticks on 6 trades.

Tomorrow is another day.

Tiger, hi im slow to learn I trade crude oil as well . I use price action and supply and demand. Im a scalper and use range bars to help me find the supply and demand areas.

You know tiger that out of all instruments to trade crude is one of the hardest because the best of the best market makers (smart money) trade crude. You are trading agianst the best institutional traders in the world.

So if you are profitable trading crude you rock! Remember crude oil runs the world!

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 Tiger45 
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slow to learn View Post
Tiger, hi im slow to learn I trade crude oil as well . I use price action and supply and demand. Im a scalper and use range bars to help me find the supply and demand areas.

You know tiger that out of all instruments to trade crude is one of the hardest because the best of the best market makers (smart money) trade crude. You are trading agianst the best institutional traders in the world.

So if you are profitable trading crude you rock! Remember crude oil runs the world!

Thanks STL! Any pionters on trading price action would be appreciated.

I thought ES was the hardest to trade - at least that's what I've heard.

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 Tiger45 
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Missed the major moves today. Clearly this is an area that needs work. However, I did make 19 ticks on 3 trades, so it wasn't all bad.

Lots of news today, so I was on guard. Still researching a way to play that game.

The 05:30 news caused CL to do its typical spaz dance. Being new to NT, I'm wondering if I can use an ATM strategy to skim some ticks off of those crazy gyrations.

Two bars after the news, CL starts a steady, steep dive for the low of the day. The high volume hammer at 06:00 was the bottom, but my preference is to go with green hammers as bottom signals. I drew the trend line and was looking for some reversal pattern to trade, but instead just watched it go up. Drew another trend line.

At the top of that run, CL hit 81.94 a few times, but because there wasn't a decisive trend line break, I didn't short it. After 2 bars down, it resumed its move up.

The 07:20 bar was a nice thrust out of the trend, forming a lower high with the previous bar. I place an order to go short at 82.12 - about midway back up the surge bar. Canceled the order when I wasn't filled on the next bar. When oil bounced off the EMA at 07:30, then pulled away at 07:35, I placed an order to go long at 81.90, just below the close of the 07:35 bar. Unfortunately, there was no retracement and oil moved up another 100 ticks!

Trade #1
I thought the 08:05 and 08:10 bars were showing some weakness forming lower highs. The 08:15 bar down signaled to me a move down, and I went short at 82.84 on the next bar. Price had one last gasp and I got taken out +3 ticks.

Trade #2
I watched the failed down move and subsequent bounce off the EMA and went long at 82.66 on the 09:05 bar. Got out +1 tick.

Trade #3
The failed long and the 3 attempts to go past 82.78 made me think the market was now going lower. The 09:15 bar had a lower high, and I wanted to catch the 4th attempt at breaking 82.78 so I placed a stop sell at 82.74 and was filled on the 09:20 bar. Thought I had a tiger by the tail, but only got +15 ticks.

I think my biggest need for improvement is to trade trends, which you'd think would be the easiest thing to do. Another area for improvement is learning where to place the stop orders. Since I'm using an 11 tick stop, I'm cautious about retraces on these 20 tick candles. Placing orders at bar opens at 07:25 and 07:40 would have given me a couple more winners. Back to the classroom.

Have a nice weekend everyone.

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 Tiger45 
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Took the day off today. Back tomorrow.

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Tiger45 View Post
Took the day off today. Back tomorrow.

Wise decision

Mike

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 Tiger45 
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Up 11 ticks on 3 trades. Managed to avoid most of the whip and come out in 1 piece.

I saw the 70 tick premarket rise when I booted up this morning, so I was predisposed for long, with-trend trades. The consolidation after that big rise almost got me. I was waiting for a breakout long, but the 05:30 bar was a surprise to me, so I just watched. There was a bounce off the EMA, then 4 bars of trend back up. The slope was steep, so had there been a decisive break from that trend, I would have tried to go short.

Trade #1
Price bounced off the EMA 3 times. On the first bull candle, I put in an order long at 82.04 and was filled on the retrace of the next bar. I didn't like the way price was reacting (should have gone higher faster), so I moved my stop up to BE-2 and was taken out. I had the chance to get out BE+1, but spent too much time thinking about it. -2 ticks.

The next several bars were big bear bars. The 06:50 and 06:55 bars had the same low, so I was waiting for a reversal candle.

Trade #2
After the bull 07:00 bar, I entered an order long at 81.37, just a few ticks below the close. I'm still trying to figure out a good entry for these things. I was filled on the retrace of the next bar. This is another good example of how trading 2 contracts would be better (but I'm not there yet). Got out +12 ticks, then price moved up another 40 ticks! +12 ticks.

I watched price bounce off the EMA and wanted to go short, but it was moving too fast. Put an order in short at 81.62 after the 07:25 bar closed, but wasn't filled.

The 07:35 and 07:40 bars formed a double bottom, but I don't like it when the bear candle's tail is longer than the bull candle, so I passed on it. Got lucky, because I probably would have been stopped out on the next bar.

Price started getting whippy around the EMA, so I just watched.

Trade #3
After the big surge up through the EMA by the 08:10 bar, I was looking for another opportunity to go long. The next bar was a small, bear bar that did form a HH and HL, so figuring the trend was resuming, I went long 81.80 on the close of that bar and was filled on the 08:20 bar. After 8 ticks I moved my stop to BE+1 and was taken out on the next bar. +1 ticks.

Decided to call it quits for the day.

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 Tiger45 
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A very whippy day. Slightly biased at the open for long trades because of the overnight action. When the 05:25 bar hit the high of the 04:50 bar and formed a double top, I was thinking short. The next bar formed a LL, but it bounced of the EMA and price was so close to the EMA and in an up trend, I decided to pass on the trade.

The next 90 minutes or so price whipped around the EMA with big tails, so no trades.

The 07:05 bar was a huge surge, and I thought the up trend was going to resume, but while waiting for a pullback entry, price kept dropping to below the EMA.

Trade #1
Even though the 07:25 bar was green, it did form a LL and LH, so I shorted 3 ticks above the close with a tight stop. I got a few ticks to the good and immediately moved my stop to BE + 1 where I was taken out. +1 tick.

Price continued to climb after that. and after the 07:50 bar I drew a trend line. I was looking for price to challenge the 07:05 bar high, and it did go right past that.

Trade #2
The 08:00 and 08:05 bars showed there were now buyers, and both bars hit the trend line I drew earlier. I went long 83.10 at the close of the 08:05 bar. +20 ticks.

I didn't see the price hitting 83.38 three times in a row until after my review. In all honesty, even if I had noticed that, I should have also noticed the sloppy right triangle price was forming and then expect a break out long.What I was looking for was a strong break of the trend line down,or another push up.

Trade #3
The 08:45 bar was a strong break down, but it didn't go past the EMA. I was expecting it to test the high on the next bar before continuing down, and place an order short at 83.26. In hindsight, this wasn't very smart. It just worked out because the day was so volatile. +10 ticks.

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ymoca
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Hi,

Just want to say that I've been following your Journal since you started it.

I am also trading CL (or should I say trying to) using a 5min chart. I find it interesting to read your thought process for why you took your trades. Very informative. You seem to have a really good handle on the price action.

Some days I really struggle to get a read on things in real time. (especially days like today) I guess I need a lot more screen time.

Keep up the good trading!

Cheers

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 Tiger45 
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ymoca View Post
Hi,

Just want to say that I've been following your Journal since you started it.

I am also trading CL (or should I say trying to) using a 5min chart. I find it interesting to read your thought process for why you took your trades. Very informative. You seem to have a really good handle on the price action.

Some days I really struggle to get a read on things in real time. (especially days like today) I guess I need a lot more screen time.

Keep up the good trading!

Cheers

Thanks for the kind words. I'm just trying to understand this stuff myself!!

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 Tiger45 
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Today was a wash with 3 trades. I'm going to rededicate myself to finding a good entry to join a run away trend.

Since the over night session was slightly down, I was looking for short trades. The first hour or so was flat and nothing interesting happened until the 20 tick bear bar at 06:05. That bar closed under the EMA, but stopped right at the pivot lows from the 05:05 and 05:35 bars, so I wanted to wait for additional confirmation. The 06:10 bar pushed up to the EMA, penetrated the low of the previous bar, but stopped right at its low. This caused me to wait 1 more bar, and the next bar formed a higher low and stopped right at the EMA.

I wanted to wait another bar to see if price would go up past the EMA, or continue down, but there was no entry as the 06:20 bar dropped hard. Having missed a 70 tick drop, I waited for a pullback to rejoin the trend, but I didn't see the pattern I liked so I didn't make a trade.

Price ran up like crazy before the news, and I just watched. After the news, there was the usual spastic gyrations. I noticed the triangle price was forming and was waiting for a breakout in some direction.

Trade #1
The 08:20 bar broke out from the triangle, but stopped just above the EMA, I waited 1 more bar, and when the 08:25 bar closed under the EMA, I entered a short at 83.42, a tick above the close. I was filled on the next bar and stopped out on the retrace by 1 tick. -11 ticks.

Price continued to drop without a pullback until the little bull spinner at 08:50.

The 08:55 bar gave a strong break to the bear trend line, and I entered a stop order long at 83.01, figuring there would be some retracement. I was looking for a quick 15 tick scalp, but I wasn't filled.

Trade #2
The 09:35 and 09:40 bars formed a double bottom that was almost to the tick of the low of the day at 06:30. After the 09:45 bar closed green, I entered long at 82.81 hoping for a 15 tick scalp, but only got to 13 ticks before stopping me out. +1 tick.

Trade #3
When price finally broke above the EMA, I went long at 82.81 and was looking for a full target (25 ticks), figuring it just couldn't go down anymore. Got out on the next bar with my trailing stop. +10 ticks.

I know there was a better way to handle today's action. I remember reading in Brook's book that if the trend is really strong, just get in anywhere. Psychologically, I'm nowhere near being able to do that.

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 Tiger45 
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Today I tried to do 2 new things at once: Test out a new trade entry strategy and play with NinjaTrader's chart trading. I placed many trades today, and at one point was down over 100 ticks, but ended up the day +43 ticks. This was entirely due to dumb luck when at the last trade of the day, I tried to take a 26 tick profit on a short and ended up selling another contract right before the big drop.

In real life, I would have quit trading after the 3rd stop out on Trade #4. I omitted the other 20 trades I made because I was just rolling around in barbed wire and goofing. The 7 trades here are ones I was trying on, and I threw in the last short just for fun.

I didn't see any trades in the morning, and with lots of news coming, I just watched.

Trade #1
Against my better judgement (trading close to news), I saw the 05:40 and 05:45 bars form a 2 bar reversal, and I went long at the close of the second bar. -11 ticks.

Trade #2
I saw price topping out and when the 05:55 bar came down and then back up, I drew the trend line and put OCO stop sell orders in at 83.05 and 82.85. When price dropped on 06:00 bar, I was filled and my auto trail moved me to BE+1 after 8 ticks where I was taken out right before the drop. This all happened very fast. I was in and out within a second or two. Maybe I should either drop the auto trail or put my stop sell a little higher. I put it 1 tick below the lows of the two previous bars, but maybe I should have done it at the end of the body. +1 tick.

When the 06:05 bar retraced up from the bottom, I was ready to put a stop sell under the close, but either NT froze, or CL stopped trading for awhile. There's a gap between 06:05 and 06:10.

Trade #3
I was waiting for the pullback to the EMA and when the 06:20 bar touched it and came back, I put a stop sell under the close. I was filled on the next bar, got a couple of ticks, then was stopped out. -11 ticks.

Trade #4
I drew the trend line after that stop out and saw the 06:35 bar touch it nicely. Expecting the trend to continue, I went long on the close of the bar and was stopped out. -11 ticks.

Trade #5
Price came down on 2 strong bars and closed well below the EMA. I waited for the open of the next bar, and when it started back up to the EMA, I placed a stop sell under the 06:45 bar. The 06:50 bar came back down and filled my order, then stopped me out on the high of the next bar. -11 ticks.

I made about 15 trades during the next 30 minutes, just experimenting. Almost all of them were losers.

Around 07:25 it looked like the barbed wire was over, and I waited for the pullback to the EMA.

Trade #6
Went short on the 07:40 bar and moved my stop up after getting some ticks to the good. Price didn't follow through. +2 ticks.

Trade #7
The 08:35 and 08:40 bars made a failed attempt to go higher, and after the weak 08:45 bar I placed a stop sell under that and was filled on the next bar. The 09:00 bar stopped right at the LOD. I had my stop set on the top of the 09:00 bar and watched price come almost all the way back up, then retreat. At the close of the bar I moved what I thought was my stop to the close, but it wasn't a stop. It was some default strategy that got loaded when I place my trade. Before I knew it, I was short another contract and then the bottom fell out. Total accident. I should have only gotten 26 ticks, but ended up riding it all the way down. If only life was really like that!

Still need to work on some things.

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 Tiger45 
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I don't think I played very well today. My timing seemed to be off, plus after my first 3 trades, I noticed that the trade prices didn't match up with the chart. Mirus tech support got me on the right track, but I think I was a little rattled by it. This was my first contract rollover with NT, and there was a setting that was wrong.

Trade #1
I was just looking for a quick 15 tick scalp here. In hindsight, this was too close to the EMA. +1 tick.

After trade #1, price failed to go below the rising EMA. The trend was up and I was looking to join it.

Trade #2
The 05:50 bar bounced off the previous pivot high, but the next bar closed above it. The 06:05 bar pushed higher still, then retraced (too much maybe?). I waited for the downward momentum to carry price below the 06:05 close, then put a stop order in 2 ticks above the close. The 06:10 bar then came back and filled me before stopping me out. -11 ticks.

The trend was still up, but what I see now that I wished I saw then was the overlapping of the bars. This was barbed wire and I shouldn't have been trading. However...

Trade #3
I viewed the EMA as still holding up the line, and the previous bars being part of a pullback to the EMA. This trade went exactly like the last trade. I waited for some room to place a long stop order, except this time I place the order at the high of the 06:30 bar instead of giving it some room. The 06:35 bar came back to exactly my stop, filled and killed me. The only positive is I tightened up my stop. -9 ticks.

Down 19 ticks. At this point I switched to sim.

Trade #4
Still looking to get back in the trend. The 07:00 and 07:05 bars were part of the pullback, and I put a stop order in at 1 tick above the higher of the recent swing highs. Got filled on the 07:10 bar, got about 10 ticks and moved my stop to BE +1 where I was taken out. +1 tick.

When the 07:40 bar topped out at the previous high, I drew the trend line.

Trade #5
The 07:45 bar stopped exactly at 83.20 where the previous 2 candles stopped, then started to head down. I looked nice and snug in that triangle and before waiting for that bar to close, I put a stop order in 5 ticks above the high at 83.25 and the bar turned around, and hit my stop order. It was the high of the bar, then dropped back and stopped me out. -9 ticks.

I really played this triangle wrong. I'm not upset about being stopped out of Trade #5 although I did place the order too soon, but the next trade was pure revenge.

Trade #6
No real excuse for this trade. After 07:45 bar failed to break out, I put a sell stop 1 tick under its low. The 07:50 bar dropped out of the triangle long enough to fill me at the bar low. The next bar was the upside breakout I was initially expecting from a triangle on a trending day. -9 ticks.

After the perfect down leg off the HOD, and getting 3 bars failing to push higher, I was looking for the short. The 08:35 bar made a lower low. Entered a stop 3 ticks below the low. The next bar filled me, then the trend resumed.

Trade #8
The trend was still up, and with a nice bounce off the EMA, AND a push past that 3 bar pivot at 83.29, I was looking for the long entry. The 08:50 closed above that 3 bar top, and I entered long on the next bar at 83.36. +15 ticks.

What I think I did right:
  • Over all showed a little patience. Didn't jump it at bar closes.
  • Mostly traded with-trend.

What I think I did wrong:
  1. Trade #1 - trying to counter trend trade too close to the EMA
  2. Trade #2 - The wick was longer than the body. Perhaps too much downward momentum for a long trade.
  3. Trade #5 - should have been expecting a phone break out. Too anxious to get in early.
  4. Trade # 6. Just stupid.
  5. Trade # 7 - See Trade #1

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 Tiger45 
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Forgot the chart.

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 Tiger45 
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At my age, forgetting what happened yesterday is the norm. Today, however, I remembered getting whipsawed out of trades yesterday and was a bit fearful going into this morning. The first few premarket trades had lots of overlap, so I was going to wait for cleaner bars. Suppose I still haven't taken the statistical nature of trading to heart yet.

After the double bottom at 04:45 and 04:55, price tested the low 1 more time at 05:20 before moving up and sideways. The bars between 05:30 and 05:45 had no clear top or bottom and lots of overlap. The big bear bar at 05:50 caught me by surprise, and while I was waiting for that retracement back to the EMA, the bottom fell out.

Price dropped over 100 ticks without me. After reassuring the people in the office next to me that the screaming and cussing was now under control, I took a deep breath and focused on future trades.

Trade #1
Long after the big bar at 06:40. Got out BE+1 without enough time to take that short signal. +1 tick.

There was a two bar reversal at 06:55 - 07:00 that I didn't take. With an 11 tick stop, it would have stopped me out. Price did follow through and continue to rise.

Trade #2
After a poke above the EMA and that huge sell off, price was looking like it wanted to go up for awhile. Went long on the 07:70 bar after it dipped below the previous bar's close. Price came up, filled me, and continued up for a few ticks. I thought when that bar closed above the EMA I had a winner. Next bar closed below the EMA. +1 tick.

Trade #3
Went short after the failed breakout and a close below the EMA. Price reversed, got 1 ticks of slip. 0 ticks.

Trade #4
Not real proud of this trade because I did see that nasty shooting star forming, but I remember Brooks saying something about when a failed failure fails, it's usually a good trade. Went long after a substantial retrace of that bar at 81.94. +1 tick.

Got a lot of sideways price action, then 2 drops, ending below the EMA. Placed a stop sell below the low of the bar that closed under the EMA, waiting for more downward momentum to carry me down. Got filled on the way down, but price reversed and stopped me out. +1 tick.

I was feeling a little burned out, so I left to run some errands. Missed another 100 tick move. Swam with the sharks today. Didn't get bit, but didn't get dinner, either.

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 bluemele 
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Hi,

Have you ever done a study on what your BE+1's are costing you?

Just curious, how often does moving your BE affect a profitable trade, or are you almost always saving your -11 tk stop from being hit?

I know for me, I get stopped out so often on great moves only to see it net some real profit. Usually my stop (5 ticks) would be just fine.

I am also curious if you have played with different levels or how you came up with 11 ticks? Is that 1%, 2% of your account etc. or a feasible distance as CL moves so much.

Thanks in advance.

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 Tiger45 
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Hi,

Have you ever done a study on what your BE+1's are costing you?

Just curious, how often does moving your BE affect a profitable trade, or are you almost always saving your -11 tk stop from being hit?

I know for me, I get stopped out so often on great moves only to see it net some real profit. Usually my stop (5 ticks) would be just fine.

I am also curious if you have played with different levels or how you came up with 11 ticks? Is that 1%, 2% of your account etc. or a feasible distance as CL moves so much.

Thanks in advance.

You must have been reading my mind. I'm reassessing the 11 tick stop thing. I just picked that number because it's about .5% of my account, and I'm willing to get stopped out 3 times in a day before I call it quits.

There have definitely been trades that stopped me out before going on to run. Perhaps with such a small account, I'll need to expose myself to more risk initially. The 2 bar reversal I mentioned is a great example. Had I taken that trade, I would have been stopped out, but it went on to run 30 ticks.

The BE+1 comes mainly from my auto trail. I move to BE+1 when I get 8 ticks in my favor. I suppose what I'm looking for is to get swept away in the momentum on a nicely timed trade, and at least for now, I'm willing to have more scratches than I need.

BTW, I did get your email and will respond.

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 bluemele 
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You must have been reading my mind. I'm reassessing the 11 tick stop thing. I just picked that number because it's about .5% of my account, and I'm willing to get stopped out 3 times in a day before I call it quits.

There have definitely been trades that stopped me out before going on to run. Perhaps with such a small account, I'll need to expose myself to more risk initially. The 2 bar reversal I mentioned is a great example. Had I taken that trade, I would have been stopped out, but it went on to run 30 ticks.

The BE+1 comes mainly from my auto trail. I move to BE+1 when I get 8 ticks in my favor. I suppose what I'm looking for is to get swept away in the momentum on a nicely timed trade, and at least for now, I'm willing to have more scratches than I need.

BTW, I did get your email and will respond.

On the BE+1, I agree, I do that a lot as well. You trade with less indicators than I do, so I wait for my indi's to say 'bail' before I just let it run. The good run will come!

I don't trade on % of account etc.. I just use more of a base ATR, so if market is moving slow, I use 8 ticks on CL and tighten quickly, or if fast 11 ticks (that is why I wondered how you came up with that). Or, most times I just find the top and if my indi's say down, then I will just put it at the top + 1 or 2 ticks and see if it knocks me out.

CL is nice. I am just DEMO on CL and today picked up about +26 ticks or so. My NT simulator doesn't quite function properly on NT7 (what a surprise haha..), but CL is pretty easy to scalp compared to ES or others.

I responded as well. Thanks.

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 Tiger45 
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On the BE+1, I agree, I do that a lot as well. You trade with less indicators than I do, so I wait for my indi's to say 'bail' before I just let it run. The good run will come!

I don't trade on % of account etc.. I just use more of a base ATR, so if market is moving slow, I use 8 ticks on CL and tighten quickly, or if fast 11 ticks (that is why I wondered how you came up with that). Or, most times I just find the top and if my indi's say down, then I will just put it at the top + 1 or 2 ticks and see if it knocks me out.

CL is nice. I am just DEMO on CL and today picked up about +26 ticks or so. My NT simulator doesn't quite function properly on NT7 (what a surprise haha..), but CL is pretty easy to scalp compared to ES or others.

I responded as well. Thanks.

I was thinking about scalping too. Yesterday I walked away with 4 ticks out of 5 trades. Instead of moving to BE+1 at 8 ticks, I could have just taken the 8 and been up 40 ticks on the day.

Had real bad internet issues this morning. Took 1 trade for 20 ticks, then moved to sim and got another 16. Then my connection got so bad I just gave up even watching.

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 Tiger45 
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Not much to report today. I was having some bad internet issues early this morning. I run NT and TOS side by side, and both were crapping out on me so I knew the problem was somewhere in my office.

Trade #1

Price moving sideways under the EMA with the recent morning trend down. This was the same trade I was afraid of yesterday, so instead of trying to catch it on the downside, I placed a stop at 80.95 after the lower high at 05:45 which was 2 ticks below the open of that bar. Got filled at 05:50 then lost my internet connection. It came back a minute later and I was stopped out with a gain. +20 ticks.

Being in the market without an internet connection spooked me, so I switched to sim.

Trade #2
Entered a short stop order 2 ticks below the 06:15 bar, was filled and caught most of that bar down. +16 ticks.

After this, my connection became so unstable that I gave up. I had rebooted everything that ran on electricity in my office, but no luck. I think I missed the whole 07:40 bar. It was around 10am PST when it looked like I was back up, but I just watched after that.

My first trade today made me realize that I don't really understand my trailing stop strategy. What I think it should be doing is moving me to BE +1 when I get 8 ticks (which it does), then move me to +10 ticks when I have +15 (which it does), and to +15 when I have +20 ticks (which it does). What I don't understand is how I ended up with a 20 tick trade when my target was set to 25 ticks. In order to get my stop moved to 20, it had to hit 25, and I should have been filled and out at 25 ticks.

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 Tiger45 
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Tried something a little different today. I modified my auto trailing stop to just go to +10 when I have 20 ticks, then the goal was to manage the stop bar by bar. I also changed my target from 25 ticks to 35 ticks, and monitored the 1 minute chart.

Premarket was up, so was looking to rejoin the trend. Got a sell signal at 04:50, but it was against the trend and too close to the EMA for me, so I just watched. Missed another sell signal after the close below the EMA. The big outside doji was a stop sign for me, and the next 4 bars were barbed wire.

A double bottom formed at 06:10, then price started a climb up.

Trade #1
After the close above the EMA, I used the 1 minute chart to time an entry. After 20 ticks, the auto trail kicked in and then I was stopped out. +10 ticks.

Price got very whippy after that, and it wasn't until the lower highs started forming after 07:15 bar that I was looking to get back in.

Trade #2
Still lots of overlapping bars, but except for the outside bear bar at 07:30, each bar formed a LL and LH. Again I used the 1 minute chart to time an entry. Got 20 ticks, then stopped out as the auto trail kicked in. +10 ticks.

The next 3 bars were overlapping, and I decided to take the rest of the day off from trading.

After looking at how the day progressed, and the fact that I was stopped out on 07:50 by 3 ticks right before a 200 tick move was kind of exciting. Obviously I need to work more on the mental part of this, because even if I held on to that short at 82.15, I'm sure I would have gotten out on the 08:00 bar retrace and not rode it all the way down, so it really wouldn't have mattered.

I hope all you better traders out there raked it in!

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 bluemele 
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This is good stuff. I stayed out of the CL today because it seemed 'choppy' like the TF, but your charts seem so less choppy! haha..

One thing that you can do is instead of the 1 timeframe if you want more points, like you did with the 1M for entry, then maybe have a 3rd chart up with say 30M or 15M or even 1HR?

I think the key for long rides is you have to be willing to give up 200 ticks to make 200 ticks. There are also some really good ways to decide on your exit and not think about money or ticks. Like an ATR break (SuperTrend for example) or a trendline break, or an MA break (like the one you have on your chart, or a BB middle band touch or whatever.

If you just took a short on your trade and exited when it touched the EMA, then man, you would have had a very nice run.

I realize you have thought of these, but sharing some ideas that I have used in the past. The challenge with trading is most people (beginners) think it is all about the entry. In my opinion, it is mostly about the exit! So, I believe my entries are plenty good most times when market trends, however, my exits suck. haha...

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 Tiger45 
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This is good stuff. I stayed out of the CL today because it seemed 'choppy' like the TF, but your charts seem so less choppy! haha..

One thing that you can do is instead of the 1 timeframe if you want more points, like you did with the 1M for entry, then maybe have a 3rd chart up with say 30M or 15M or even 1HR?

I think the key for long rides is you have to be willing to give up 200 ticks to make 200 ticks. There are also some really good ways to decide on your exit and not think about money or ticks. Like an ATR break (SuperTrend for example) or a trendline break, or an MA break (like the one you have on your chart, or a BB middle band touch or whatever.

If you just took a short on your trade and exited when it touched the EMA, then man, you would have had a very nice run.

I realize you have thought of these, but sharing some ideas that I have used in the past. The challenge with trading is most people (beginners) think it is all about the entry. In my opinion, it is mostly about the exit! So, I believe my entries are plenty good most times when market trends, however, my exits suck. haha...

The exits are REALLY hard. It's tough to watch profits evaporate. My long term thought has always been to trade 2 contracts, take the quick 10 - 15 ticks with the first, move the 2nd to BE +1 and let it ride. Easier said than done.

I am definitely focusing more energy now on understanding S/R levels and trying to have a clue as to where to exit.

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 bluemele 
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The exits are REALLY hard. It's tough to watch profits evaporate. My long term thought has always been to trade 2 contracts, take the quick 10 - 15 ticks with the first, move the 2nd to BE +1 and let it ride. Easier said than done.

I am definitely focusing more energy now on understanding S/R levels and trying to have a clue as to where to exit.

Yes, you can see that with your eyes. Or a simple MP type indicator, but not sure on the value. For me, it flies through those areas about 50% of the time, so I don't see the point.

I debate on 2 contracts as my mentor taught me to do what you did.

contract #1 scale out at a certain criteria, MA cross, trendline etc.. (not just ticks)
contract #2 exit when you would take the opposite direction trade

I was jumpy today. I figured the market was heading short, but seems like it hasn't been going till later when I am done trading.

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 Tiger45 
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Yes, you can see that with your eyes. Or a simple MP type indicator, but not sure on the value. For me, it flies through those areas about 50% of the time, so I don't see the point.

I debate on 2 contracts as my mentor taught me to do what you did.

contract #1 scale out at a certain criteria, MA cross, trendline etc.. (not just ticks)
contract #2 exit when you would take the opposite direction trade

I was jumpy today. I figured the market was heading short, but seems like it hasn't been going till later when I am done trading.

I took a quick look at some of my past trades, and there were at least 3 100+ tick moves that I was in a position for if I had not exited until a cross of the EMA. Interesting...

I'm taking today off - no trading for me. Not even sim. Have a good weekend.

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 bluemele 
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I took a quick look at some of my past trades, and there were at least 3 100+ tick moves that I was in a position for if I had not exited until a cross of the EMA. Interesting...

I'm taking today off - no trading for me. Not even sim. Have a good weekend.

Thanks! Yes, I think the key is understanding maybe something that is telling you that it could be a big run. Hitting pivots is never easy, but due to the way CL moves, it doesn't take a whole lot to get lucky! haha..

I created an automated strategy in NT about 8 months ago that used SuperTrend. If the plane was broken, I went short, if it came back, exit then long etc..

It was very profitable when the CL trended and through backtesting it was unprofitable as the CL ranged during certain periods of time for extended periods. I am somewhat new to CL (10 months), so I don't know the landscape on why/when, but anyways, you are right! You can get some huge runs!

I am part of a group of traders and I see those guys clearing 120, 140 ticks a day off the same trades that I take. They have been doing it a couple years longer and they tell me it just takes time. I think I also have a different personality type, but you seem like a patient enough guy to make it happen.

Have a great weekend and maybe we will finally get some nice sun!

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 Tiger45 
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Made a couple of non-fatal mistakes today. Otherwise, a decent day. I decided to drop the auto trail stop, but kept the BE +1 move after 8 ticks. I changed my target back to 25 ticks.

The overnight session was starting to give back some of its gains, so I wasn't sure which way things were going. The big outside bull bar at 04:50 started a run back up to the EMA with a close above the EMA. The recent trend was still down, so I wasn't too eager to go long at this point.

The next 8 bars just chopped around the EMA as it started to flatten and turn up.

Trade #1
After the big bull bar at 05:55, I looked at the 60 min chart, which was still up and had just come off its EMA. Then I looked at the 1 min chart for an entry and went long at 82.50. Resisted the urge to lock in 10 ticks (yay). +25 ticks.

After the run, price moved in a 35 tick channel for over an hour. I saw the triangle forming and knew these things usually break to the flat side, but it was too close to the EMA for me. Turns out this did break to the flat side after all.

In hindsight, I see the double top price made at the HOD, and the first bar of that triangle I drew was a lower high. That, along with the price topping out at 83.19 was a sell signal that I should have obeyed.

There was another short signal at 07:55, after the failed attempt to recross the EMA. This was just above the open of the day, and for some reason I was ascribing mystic support properties to it, so I passed on another winning trade.

I hunkered down to wait for a pullback to enter the trend.

Trade #2
After the failed attempt to cross the EMA, followed by a trend bar, I entered an order near the pullback trend line and got a great fill. After 8 ticks, I went to BE+1 where I was taken out right before the move down. +1 tick.

I wasn't paying enough attention to see the other, better opportunity to short that leg on the very next bar after I was stopped out.

Overall I played on the conservative side. Right now I'm still more afraid of losing a trade than I am eager for a winner. Hopefully this frame of mind will relax over time. I remember reading somewhere that small, consistent wins builds confidence.

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 Tiger45 
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Today was very choppy with no clear, lasting trends. Managed to escape with minor burns.

I didn't take the first short at 05:15 because I just got to the office and noticed it with only a minute or two to make up my mind. Since I don't like being rushed, I passed on that winner.

Trade #1
After a weak push through the EMA, got a bigger bear bar that closed under. Shorted 82.12 and got out BE+1.

Trade #2
After the push up to the HOD, a nice trend back to the EMA formed. Went long at the close of the 07:50 bar and was filled at 82.61. Was expecting a test of the high, but only got another BE+1.

That failed push to the HOD was followed by another, even weaker attempt, and a second lower high was formed at 08:25.

Trade #3
I viewed the 08:45 bar as a failed break out, and a close below the EMA, so I entered a stop sell at 82.56 which was the low of the last bar to close above the EMA. Since the EMA was still rising, I was expecting another attempt to push higher, and was hoping to fade the extreme. I put a tight stop of a few ticks above the failed break out bar, but was stopped out. -7 ticks.

I wonder if anyone else saw that trade the same way I did. (Feel free to chime in...) I was conflicted about taking it because the 08:45 bar was an outside bar that spanned the EMA, but decided to take a chance mainly because of the lower highs being made and a close under the EMA.

Switched to sim.

Trade #4
A little late to the party on this trade, because I wasn't paying attention like I should have been. Entered short at 82.41, 1 bar too late. Trailed my stop to the high of each bar as it closed, and was stopped out with a small monopoly money gain. +6 ticks.

After looking back on this day, I'm not sure if I could have done any better. I'm looking forward to reading other CL journals for tips. I thought about trading off the 1 minute chart or throwing on some Bollinger Bands and trying to fade the extremes, but at this point in my trading career, I'm not nearly that good.

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 bluemele 
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Today was very choppy with no clear, lasting trends. Managed to escape with minor burns.

I didn't take the first short at 05:15 because I just got to the office and noticed it with only a minute or two to make up my mind. Since I don't like being rushed, I passed on that winner.

Trade #1
After a weak push through the EMA, got a bigger bear bar that closed under. Shorted 82.12 and got out BE+1.

Trade #2
After the push up to the HOD, a nice trend back to the EMA formed. Went long at the close of the 07:50 bar and was filled at 82.61. Was expecting a test of the high, but only got another BE+1.

That failed push to the HOD was followed by another, even weaker attempt, and a second lower high was formed at 08:25.

Trade #3
I viewed the 08:45 bar as a failed break out, and a close below the EMA, so I entered a stop sell at 82.56 which was the low of the last bar to close above the EMA. Since the EMA was still rising, I was expecting another attempt to push higher, and was hoping to fade the extreme. I put a tight stop of a few ticks above the failed break out bar, but was stopped out. -7 ticks.

I wonder if anyone else saw that trade the same way I did. (Feel free to chime in...) I was conflicted about taking it because the 08:45 bar was an outside bar that spanned the EMA, but decided to take a chance mainly because of the lower highs being made and a close under the EMA.

Switched to sim.

Trade #4
A little late to the party on this trade, because I wasn't paying attention like I should have been. Entered short at 82.41, 1 bar too late. Trailed my stop to the high of each bar as it closed, and was stopped out with a small monopoly money gain. +6 ticks.

After looking back on this day, I'm not sure if I could have done any better. I'm looking forward to reading other CL journals for tips. I thought about trading off the 1 minute chart or throwing on some Bollinger Bands and trying to fade the extremes, but at this point in my trading career, I'm not nearly that good.

I think you are doing fine. I think today you weren't seeing it clearly maybe?

I found a trade for a quick 9 ticks but the market was ranging at that point. It seemed weak, but ranged for another 2 hours roughly. Now it seems to be dropping.

My advice is to leave your charts alone and keep them simple. I am just sim'ing Al Brooks method (or at least part of it) and doing pretty good. I mostly ignore the EMA and use it rarely and don't put too much weight into the angle or anything like that except for when there is a big move, then I look at a gap close or something.

Your trades today seemed riskier than usual (forced). I don't think it is the market, but something that changed your way of interpreting today.

(eastern time)
Good trades @ 9:05 on a breakout short, @ 10:00 long (NEWS...), @ 10:20 long, @ 12:30 short.

Of course, I didn't take those! haha...

You are way ahead of the pack!

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 Tiger45 
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Mixed feelings about today. My rules kept me out of the morning chop and news cycle, but they also kept me out of a winning trade.

After the oil report, the 07:40 and 07:45 bars formed LH's and LL's with a close under the EMA, but the overlap was too much for me, so I passed on the short trade. So I watched the price fall 70 ticks and was trying not to get discouraged about it.

Even during the drop, there was still lots of overlapping bars, so I switched to sim.

Trade #1
After a drop of 100 ticks, it looked like it was ready for a retrace. Placed a stop order at 80.85 after the close of the 08:30 bar and was filled. Had a hard target and got it easy. +25 ticks.

After that, I was feeling a little better and switched to real money.

Trade #2
Price topped out and started forming a triangle. The overall trend was down, but the recent trend was still up. I was going to target 15 ticks to the EMA and after the close of the 09:10 bar, put my order in at 81.39 hoping to get another failed push high and a good fill. I was very nervous about taking this trade because everything was so whippy and it was close to the EMA, so I moved my stop to BE+1 after about 4 ticks. I was stopped out, then price ran down to the EMA for the 15 ticks I was hoping for. +1 tick.

This bummed me out, because I had a plan that worked, and didn't stick to it. Same thing happened yesterday. Took a deep breathe and moved on.

Trade #3
Price bumped off the EMA, but without any enthusiasm. The 09:40 bar made a LL and LH, and the next bar was a big bear bar that closed under the EMA. I waited 1 more bar for confirmation, then when the 09:50 bar closed under the EMA, I went short with a market order on the next bar for a full stop. -11 ticks.

Switched back to sim.

Trade #4
Same thing as the last trade. Got LH and LL with a close under the EMA. Went short and was stopped out. -11 ticks.

After reviewing the chart, my only observation is that on trades 3 and 4, the EMA was flat and I was just in a range and didn't see it.

And as for that giant run at the end, I don't have a clue as yet how to play that, other than jump in. Even the 1 min chart barely gave you a pullback entry.

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  #44 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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A couple of observations if you don't mind. I like it when you give me yours, so I hope you do not mind this.

1. Moving back and forth from sim/live shows a lack of confidence. I think it is better to stick with one and set your loss limit etc.. It should be no different, so it won't matter. I used to do this and it always ended up costing me and I got some good advice from some others that said, "DON'T DO IT!".

2. Reading your terminology I see certain words that are showing me a difference in your mentality than just a week or two ago.

3. I think the first 3 were all reasonable considering what I have read about your method. However, the 4th one doesn't make sense to me? Is that a GAP fill?

I guess if your target is 15 ticks on some and 25 on others that tells me that the 25 seem like better trades. Then, why take the 15? I do the same stuff, daily....

Why take the same risk with a lesser reward? For me it is because I want to trade.... I have to be 'in a trade'.

On the last trade, that is a nice looking doji candle right before you got in. Then, another doji on that nice long run @ 10:40'ish.

You are a great trader and I enjoy reading about your trades.

I made a gift on 2 ticks, and then one 100+ tick move today on CL! All SIM>>>>> I can sim on stuff like this fine, but when I go live, I have an issue...

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 Tiger45 
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bluemele View Post
A couple of observations if you don't mind. I like it when you give me yours, so I hope you do not mind this.

1. Moving back and forth from sim/live shows a lack of confidence. I think it is better to stick with one and set your loss limit etc.. It should be no different, so it won't matter. I used to do this and it always ended up costing me and I got some good advice from some others that said, "DON'T DO IT!".

Very perceptive of you - I did suffer a crisis of faith today. There were several trades I just penciled in that worked, but I don't have any rules for them, so I didn't take them. That was frustrating. Then, after trade #2, I was mad that I didn't follow my plan.


bluemele View Post
2. Reading your terminology I see certain words that are showing me a difference in your mentality than just a week or two ago.

Really? How so? For the better, I hope. I'd like to think I'm making progress.


bluemele View Post
3. I think the first 3 were all reasonable considering what I have read about your method. However, the 4th one doesn't make sense to me? Is that a GAP fill?

It was the same as the previous one: Bar closes below EMA, wait 1 bar to see if it climbs above. If not, go short. Perhaps that dragon fly doji should have tipped me off, or the flatness of the EMA. It was a bad trade.


bluemele View Post
I guess if your target is 15 ticks on some and 25 on others that tells me that the 25 seem like better trades. Then, why take the 15? I do the same stuff, daily....

Why take the same risk with a lesser reward? For me it is because I want to trade.... I have to be 'in a trade'.

Good point. I'm always uneasy shorting right above the EMA, but all the other signals were there, and there was room.


Don't mind your comments at all. In fact, they've been very helpful.

Trade #4 was perhaps stretching it, seeing how that bar retraced before my entry. However, it did fit my plan (except for the flat EMA).

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 bluemele 
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Very perceptive of you - I did suffer a crisis of faith today. There were several trades I just penciled in that worked, but I don't have any rules for them, so I didn't take them. That was frustrating. Then, after trade #2, I was mad that I didn't follow my plan.

I highlighted what I consider to be challenging words or thoughts to answer your question. This is just an example and not the same words you used. My point is that I hear a different tone from your writing showing that your confidence has gone down some. It may be nothing but something to be conscious of.


Tiger45 View Post
It was the same as the previous one: Bar closes below EMA, wait 1 bar to see if it climbs above. If not, go short. Perhaps that dragon fly doji should have tipped me off, or the flatness of the EMA. It was a bad trade.

Oh, ok, I didn't realize that was a rule. I got it. Sorry.

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 Tiger45 
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Lot's of opportunities today, but I only scratched out lunch money. I let the 05:30 news keep me out of a great long trade, and after my first trade I fell asleep at the switch and missed a great short. There were 2 shorts I had limit orders in for that didn't get filled because I was being too cautious. Oh well.

Trade #1
After the run up and double top, price dropped through the EMA and consolidated in a triangle (drew the bottom trend line). Price broke out big and pushed up through the EMA. I thought this would be the 3rd attempt at a high (3rd time's a charm), and I put a buy stop at 82.32 which was the high of the previous bar. Got filled, got 8 ticks, got BE+1.


Trade #2
After the big drop and hammer at 07:50, I was expecting a long trade. Went long at the close of the 07:55 bar. Right idea, just too soon. +1 tick.

I saw the triangle forming and was expecting a breakout to the flat side, but it was so close to the EMA, I didn't want to go long.

Trade #3
After the big run, I was looking for a long trade. The 08:35 bar had HH and LL and I went long at the close. I kept a very tight watch on it because it was a counter trend bar, and as soon as I was able I went to BE+1 where I was stopped out.

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 bluemele 
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Lot's of opportunities today, but I only scratched out lunch money. I let the 05:30 news keep me out of a great long trade, and after my first trade I fell asleep at the switch and missed a great short. There were 2 shorts I had limit orders in for that didn't get filled because I was being too cautious. Oh well.

Trade #1
After the run up and double top, price dropped through the EMA and consolidated in a triangle (drew the bottom trend line). Price broke out big and pushed up through the EMA. I thought this would be the 3rd attempt at a high (3rd time's a charm), and I put a buy stop at 82.32 which was the high of the previous bar. Got filled, got 8 ticks, got BE+1.


Trade #2
After the big drop and hammer at 07:50, I was expecting a long trade. Went long at the close of the 07:55 bar. Right idea, just too soon. +1 tick.

I saw the triangle forming and was expecting a breakout to the flat side, but it was so close to the EMA, I didn't want to go long.

Trade #3
After the big run, I was looking for a long trade. The 08:35 bar had HH and LL and I went long at the close. I kept a very tight watch on it because it was a counter trend bar, and as soon as I was able I went to BE+1 where I was stopped out.

$15.00 is better than any day of sim in my opinion.

I had a couple losses where your trade #2 was. On to tomorrow.

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 Tiger45 
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Feeling pretty good for someone who hit his daily loss limit. I broke some rules and got burned for it - which is a good thing.

Saw price run up, stall, then make a second stab at breaking 81.85. This was the HOD, and I wanted to buy that.

Trade #1
I meant to put a buy stop 2 ticks above the high, but I submitted a market order and was filled at 81.80 and was immediately down 4 ticks. While I was debating with myself whether to go flat or try for a break even, I was stopped out. I've done this to myself countless times on sim while I was learning NT, and one of my rules is to read the $%^ing message before clicking OK. Broke that rule. New rule - if you're unhappy with a trade, just get out. Immediately. -11 ticks.

Trade #2
This is a combo of broken rules. I traded during the 05:30 news, and I rationalized it to myself that I gave up a valid, profitable trade yesterday because I didn't trade during the news. I also shorted this uptrend, right above the EMA. All very stupid, and I'm glad I was stopped out. If you break a rule and it works, you'll be tempted to break it again. To further add to my broken rules/stupidity, I didn't wait for a confirming bar after the close below the EMA. Thank you sir, may I have another? -11 ticks.

The market was making new highs and I wanted to be in on it.

Trade #3
The 05:50 bar broke resistance and closed above that 81.85 level. I targeted a pullback to 1 tick above support and got a great fill at 81.86 which was the low of that bar. At this point I thought I had a tiger by the tail, but the next bar retraced and took me out at the low if its bar. Fitting, I guess. +1 tick.

Trade #4
Not willing to leave it alone, I targeted a pullback to the 05:50 outside bar and trend line support at 81.95 and was filled and stopped out on the trend line break. -11 ticks.

At this point I hit my daily loss limit and debated doing 1 more real trade, since the first trade really was an accident. Decided to go to sim.

Trade #5
Did what I was supposed to do. Waited another bar after a close below the EMA. I opted to cancel my hard target of 25 ticks and manage it manually. +21 ticks

Trade #6
With the 2 hammers offering support, I went long at 81.67. This trade was actually another mistake, since my intent was to place a buy stop 1 tick higher at 81.68. I managed this stop manually. +7 ticks.

Trade #7
Was looking like the up move was done. Shorted 81.66, got 8 ticks and BE+1.

At this point I had some office work to do, so I stopped watching. Looking back, I probably would have been stopped out of the short on the 08:20 bar, and hopefully would have been smart (or lucky) enough to take the next short at the 08:30 bar.

This week I finished down 18 ticks in real trading and up 43 ticks on sim. For the month (only 2 weeks) I'm up 7 ticks real (-6 after commissions) and up 34 on sim.

I cancelled my hard target of 25 ticks in favor of letting the market give me what ever, and managing the stop manually. In hindsight, I would have had 2 sim trades for +50 ticks instead of +28. I don't have enough experience to see if it's better to take multiple 25 tick winners as opposed to getting big runners.

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 bluemele 
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I cancelled my hard target of 25 ticks in favor of letting the market give me what ever, and managing the stop manually. In hindsight, I would have had 2 sim trades for +50 ticks instead of +28. I don't have enough experience to see if it's better to take multiple 25 tick winners as opposed to getting big runners.

VERY INFORMATIVE.

A good question to me is, why sim is so good?

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 Tiger45 
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A good question to me is, why sim is so good?

Easy - less stress. Read the book Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card. Besides being an astounding book, it hits the nail on the head on why sim is easier than real.

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 Tiger45 
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Price was flat to up, but the most recent attempt to go higher failed.

Trade #1
Thought I'd start the morning and new month off with a stupid trade. Went short at 82.05 even though there was all kinds of support at 81.94. Got what I deserved. -11 ticks.

Price went nuts and I switched to the 1 minute chart for an entry. Saw entry after entry go by as price kept rising. After every minute I kept thinking it couldn't go any higher.

Trade #2
Saw an entry at the 1 min chart and took it with shaking hands. +25 ticks.

After the big run, I was waiting for a violent break of that trend line, but didn't get it. Instead price went sideways, making lower highs.

Trade #3
After the 06:45 bar's failed attempt to go higher, placed a sell stop at 83.71 and was filled on the next bar. Took 10 ticks of heat on my 11 tick stop, but eventually came out OK. +25 ticks.

The 08:05 bar doesn't meet the strict requirements for a hammer, but it looked like one, closed at the EMA, and the previous attempt to push lower failed. I was looking for a long trade. The next bar was a HH/LL and so was the next, even though it was a little bear spinner. Ready to go long.

Trade #4
After that second bar closed below the pseudo-hammer's tail, I started becoming a believer and went short at 83.06. The bottom didn't drop out like I was looking for, and the T&S was twitching like crazy. I was worried about slippage, so I moved my stop to BE+3 and was stopped out with 1 tick of slip. +2 ticks.

Switched to sim.

Trade #5
Price ran up 40 ticks, then settled back to the EMA. Went long at 83.36 and when it failed to break out over 83.42, moved my stop to BE+1 where I was stopped out.

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 Tiger45 
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Today was a scalping day in CL, which I was not doing. I was going for 25 tick targets, which were few and far between. I only made 1 bad mistake today, which is good.

I watched the 05:25 run with an eye to getting in on the 1 minute chart, but lacked the courage. Decided to wait for a setup I was comfortable with.

Trade #1
I didn't take the short opportunity as price stalled after the run-up because it was too close to an up-trending EMA. When price closed down past the EMA, I waited for a confirming bar before entering my short at 83.72. I thought about a tighter stop, because my entry price was so aggressive. Meaning that if I get filled, the retrace is substantial, and maybe it's not a retrace but an up leg. Decided against that and was stopped out. -11 ticks.

And so begins 3 hours of chop.

Trade #2
Still an uptrend and was looking for a long entry. That long legged doji was ugly, but it did make HH and HL. Entered long at 83.79 at support. Was filled, got some good ticks, then out BE+1.

Trade #3
Just like Trade #1. Out BE+1

After the hanging man closed above the EMA at 09:05 and the next bar made HH and HL, I was looking to go long. There were 2 limit orders that I placed that didn't get filled. Frustrating, but I'm reluctant to play the break out game.

Trade #4
After the HOD was taken out, I got in at support on a nice fill, but didn't go anywhere. Another BE+1.

I saw the triangle forming and was ready for a break out .

Trade #5
Here's my bad mistake. I left my game plan behind and decided to play the break out game. I placed a buy stop 5 ticks over the high, figuring that was high enough to avoid a false break out. Price went up 6 ticks, filled me, then dropped. -11 ticks.

So now I've made 5 trades. Great winning percentage, but I'm down 19 ticks. Switched to sim.

Trade #6
After the shooting star and big bear bar, went short. Got 8 ticks, then BE+1

Trade #7
Starting to get mad now. I know this #$^$ wants to die. Short 84.11 and BE+1.

Trade #8
Had a close under the EMA. Short at 81.01. Kept a tight stop because of the big wick on the prior bar. Same story. BE+1.

Overall I'm happy with the day. I only wish I hadn't tried to catch that break out.

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 Tiger45 
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Got stopped out of my first 3 trades, and even though I didn't hit my daily stop limit, that's telling me to hit the showers.

Today I tried to manage my stops better, rather than pick a fixed number. That saved me some bucks. I've been mulling over that idea for awhile, and I'm going to spend the next few days experimenting with that. I'll be in sim the rest of the week.

Trade #1
Even though the market was trending up, this short trade fit my rules, so I took it. I figured 4 ticks would prove I was wrong, and I was. Saved myself 7 ticks. -4 ticks.

Trade #2
The hammer of 05:40 closed below the EMA, but the next 3 bars all made HH and HL. Went long on the next bar and figured 5 ticks would prove me wrong. Wrong again. -5 ticks.

Normally, an outside bar is a stop sign to me, and ignoring this one was costly.

Trade #3
The 06:05 bar was an outside bar that tested the lows, but it finished strong near the top and with-trend. Went long and was stopped out. -11 ticks.

At this point I switched to sim and made many, many trades testing different ideas, time frames, etc. Far too many to recap. Still have 7 hours before dinner. Back to replay.

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 bluemele 
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No image?


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 Tiger45 
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bluemele View Post
No image?


Ooops.

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 Tiger45 
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Tried some tactics today that have been on my mind. Mostly I did OK. Too bad it wasn't real money.

Trade #1
Got a great fill off a shorter time frame and it hit my hard target of 25 ticks. The next thing on the agenda is how to manage my exits. This trade and another trade later would have netted me 70 ticks with better trade management.

Trade #2
After the big run, price started to drop down, making some bars with long wicks. The 06:15 - 06:25 bars failed to breach 86.48 and when the next bar closed below the real body of the previous bar, I went short at 86.34 but didn't get much follow through. +2 ticks.

Trade #3
Big bearish engulfing pattern with another bar that closed under the EMA. Short at 86.21 but stopped out. -7 ticks.

Trade #4
Looked like it was finally starting to drop. Shorted 86.06 and trailed my stop after the bar closed. +7 ticks.

Trade #5
Really messed up my stop trail. Used a shorted time period to move it, but got anxious and was stopped out with BE+1. This was really dumb because my risk on the trade was only 6 ticks.

Trade #6
This trade was very stupid. I saw the huge support at 86.19-ish, but shorted anyway. My rational was the last break of that support and the failure to move higher.

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 Tiger45 
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Nothin' today. Just reading, studying, and playing with NT.

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  #59 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
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Over traded today, but came out OK. This was all sim since I'm still working on some things. Had this been real, I probably would have stopped after the last loser and missed the biggest trade of the day.

Saw the huge support at 86.05 from 4 touches. The 08:05 bar broke support, then got a bull candle and a week inverted hammer that touched the EMA before retracing.

Trade #1
Shorted the open of the 08:20 candle with a tight stop. -5 ticks.

Trade #2
Took this trade off a shorter time frame after it became apparent that support was going to hold. Got 32 ticks MFE, but was trailing my stop with a hard target of 40 ticks. +17 ticks.

Got whip sawed on my next 2 trades

Trade #3
Long 86.67 when it looked like it was going to break the 08:50 pivot and keep on going. -4 ticks

Trade #4
Since we weren't getting any upside follow through, was looking for another test of the lows. Short 86.64 and moved to BE +1 quickly. +1 tick.

Trade #5
Went short on the close of the 09:35 candle after it formed a double top. Had a fat-finger accident when I tried to trail my stop down. The mouse cursor jumped to the left just as I clicked and submitted a market order instead of moving my stop. Didn't make much difference. +8 ticks.

The next 3 trades I was like a dog chasing his tail.

Trade #6
Short 86.81 after the double top and a couple of good bear bars. -10 ticks.

Trade #7
No excuse for this. Should have waited for confirmation that the double top was going to break. Long 87.02 stopped out -8 ticks.

Trade #8
Right idea, just too tight a stop. The market made 1 last attempt to break that double top and failed. Short 86.94 with a very tight stop. -6 ticks.

Trade #9
Showed a little more patience and went short 86.89 at the open of the 10:30 bar and got a nice ride. +40 ticks.

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 Big Mike 
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Tiger45 View Post
Over traded today, but came out OK. This was all sim since I'm still working on some things. Had this been real, I probably would have stopped after the last loser and missed the biggest trade of the day.

Sim should be as real as possible, or it isn't worth a great deal unless you are still learning how to use the platform.

If you won't trade cash the way you are trading sim, then trading sim is not going to help you trade cash.

Mike

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 Tiger45 
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Big Mike View Post
Sim should be as real as possible, or it isn't worth a great deal unless you are still learning how to use the platform.

If you won't trade cash the way you are trading sim, then trading sim is not going to help you trade cash.

Mike

It is as real as possible. Had I started off with real money, I would have switched to sim.

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 Tiger45 
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Little out of step with the market today. Looking back on my 4 trades, 3 were long. There was so much support for each leg, I was unable to see the forest for the trees. It's really hard to short above support, and I haven't had much luck putting sell stops in place and letting the wave take me down (or up, either).

Early market was up, but it started to flatten out by the time I got in. There was huge support at 82.27 so I was very reluctant to take any shorts.

Trade #1
The failure to go higher on the 07:15 - 07:30 bars had me looking for a short trade. Price dropped unconvincingly before popping back up above the EMA and making a lower high. The 87.07 had 2 hammer tails stop there, so I was waiting for a break of that. Went short 87.06 but no follow through. +1

Trade #2
After the failed short, price closed above the EMA and I went long with a tight stop. -5 ticks.

Trade #3
Same song. Lots of support at 86.92, and price was making HH's and HL's. No follow through again. Out BE +1.

I was watching price make that ascending triangle, figuring these things usually break out to the flat side. However, I didn't want to get caught in a false break out, so I kept my distance. I was still convinced that support was going to hold, so I wasn't looking for a short. When price broke out to the downside, I wanted to wait and see if support held before going short.

Trade #4
Support held, and price made a couple of HH's, I placed a buy stop above the triangle and was filled 87.21 but there was no follow through. I was so caught up in cheering my long position on, then staring slack jawed as I was stopped out, that I didn't see the double top form after I was stopped out BE+1 on the 10:25 bar.

That was the short trade of the day and I missed it.

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 Tiger45 
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Just kept plugging away today, trying to learn as much as I can. I had some good entries, but got whipsawed out on one of them, and the other I didn't manage very well. That's OK, because right now I'm mainly focusing on entries. It's part of my 3 step rehab program: Identify the entry. Take the entry. Manage the trade.

Trade #1
Price was rising before the 05:30 news, then after the news, had a pullback. Entered long 87.06 and moved my stop to BE+1 when it was going my way. The next bar took me out with 1 tick slip. 0 ticks.

After the run up, price made 2 shooting stars. I placed a stop sell at 87.41 and waited patiently for the 3rd push higher that never came. Instead I watched and chose to ignore the low risk short entry at the close of the 06:20 bar. There's a lesson here, I think.

Trade #2
Price was showing some weakness making LL and LH, but had doji's overlapping the EMA. I decided not to let that spook me and let price be my guide. Went short 87.03 when that baby hammer looked more bearish. Kept a tight reign on my stop and moved to BE+1, but got slipped again. 0 ticks.

Trade #4
The 06:45 bar formed a baby hammer on high volume and closed over the EMA. Decided to play the catch a wave game and picked an entry at the high of the hammer with a stop 1 tick below the hammer's open and let it run. Didn't move to BE+1 when I had the chance. I really suck at this game. Stopped out -4 ticks.

Took a break to watch the oil report madness.

Trade #4
Things settled down and started to move higher. I waited for the overlapping bars to spread out a bit and went long at 87.09 based on a shorter time frame. At this point, I was fixated on the shorter time frame and didn't even look at the 5 min chart. I trailed my stop up after each bar close, but had I done that on the 5 min chart, I would have had a stellar trade. Instead... +16 ticks.

I watched that run up on all different time frames and didn't have the guts to jump in. Anywhere would have worked.

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 Tiger45 
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Forgot the chart...

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 Tiger45 
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Happy Veterans Day!

Morning was down, so I was looking for shorts. Missed a nice one at 05:30 because I slept in.

Trade #1
After I missed that first leg down, I waited for a second entry. Price moved above the EMA and stalled. I placed a stop sell at 88.05 after the 06:20 bar, but wasn't filled. The next 2 bars dropped below the EMA. I got filled short at 87.88 on a retrace of the 06:35 bar, then after 15 ticks MFE, it came back and took me out BE +1.

The next hour was overlapping insanity. I watched the bear flag build and briefly thought about shorting the breakdown, but the past hour's barbed wire kept me out.

Trade #2
The inverted hammer at 07:50 was inline with previous support, and a better trader would have gone long on the close with a tight stop. That's not me at the moment. Instead, I waited for the bars to spread out a bit. After a close above the EMA and another confirmation bar, I entered a buy stop at 87.94 and THIS time I was going to manage it from the 5 min chart. I got 21 ticks MFE and price started coming back down. On the next bar, the T&S was going crazy and there was no follow through, so I moved my stop to BE + 10 and was taken out.

I watched for a little while longer, then decided to do some studying.

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 Tiger45 
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The morning session was down, so I was looking for short trades.

Trade #1
After the double top and the big down bar at 06:10, I was waiting for a breakdown. The 06:25 bar closed at the EMA, just below the lows of the 2 previous bars. Looked to the shorted time frame for an entry. Went short at 86.32 with a tight stop, but was taken out. -5 ticks.

After the 07:20 shooting star, I seriously thought about putting a sell stop 2 ticks below, but given my success rate with that trade, I decided against it. Would have worked this time.

Interesting that the big down bar stopped right at the double bottom made on 05:20/05:25. It looked like price was trying to break above that. The ascending triangle formed and gave a false breakout, then price crashed again.

Trade #2
This was a counter trend trade based on a shorted time frame. Looked like some support at 85.32. When long 85.37 with a tight stop. Out BE+1

Trade #3
Frustrating. Got a nice entry, then after 9 ticks moved my stop to BE +1. The next bar the bottom fell out. Would have only taken 7 ticks of heat. +1

Trade #4
After another big leg down, price started creeping back up, making HH's and HL's. I didn't know if price would bump off the EMA or go right through. Took the long signal with a tight stop. -2 ticks.

Trade #5
Price backed off the EMA, then had 2 strong up bars, the the second bar closing above. I didn't wait for the second, confirming bar (broken rule) and it cost me 11 ticks.

Just keep swinging...

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Hard 8
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This is another excellent journal.

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 Tiger45 
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This is another excellent journal.

Thanks, but it would be better if I were making money.

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 Tiger45 
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The recent overnight trend was up, so I was looking for long trades. However, the long wicks on the candles didn't inspire confidence in me.

Trade #1

After the 2 news events, it looked like the new trend was down. I did get a long signal and took the trade, but kept a tight watch on it. After the entry bar failed to push higher, I moved my stop to BE+2 where I was taken out.


I watched the triangle form and was ready for a southbound break out. I'm still too uncertain about break out plays, but I did watch that 1 min chart to see if a stop sell at 85.26 would have been a winner or hit my 11 ticks stop. It would have been a winner.

Trade #2
After the drop, waited for confirmation, then entered short at 85.20 from a shorter time frame entry. Got my 9 ticks, moved to BE+1 where I was stopped out before price dropped 20 ticks.

Just watched for the rest of the morning.

On my first trade, I had a tight stop of 7 ticks that would have been hit. On my second trade, I had a 9 tick stop that would NOT have been hit. My hard target on both trades was 30 ticks. If I had let the trades run their course, I would have lost 7 ticks on the first trade and made 30 ticks on the second. Managing the trade is the next stop on my rehab program.

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 Tiger45 
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Surprising how oil can trend so strongly and all of my trades that were with-trend were losers. It was the whippy-ness and tight stops that mostly did me in. I alternated between real and sim. On review, there were two signals that I spaced on that were winners.

Trade #1
Price briefly poked above the EMA before heading down. Went short 83.77 with a BE+1 exit. My best trade of the day.

The next hour had lots of overlapping bars, so I switched to sim. Had a push down at 05:45 and more sideways crap. Price made 3 unsuccessful attempts to break 83.54.

Trade #2
Placed sell stop at 83.51 with a 4 tick stop and waited for another attempt to break 83.54. Got filled, then instead of getting out BE+1, I let the trade run. -4 ticks.

Switched back to real.

Trade #3
Tried to get in on the trend. Short 82.72 and stopped out. -9 ticks.

Switched to sim

Trade #4
Right idea, poor execution. Wanted to put a sell stop just under the inverted hammer. Entered the trade too soon and too high. Had I waited for the bar to close, it would have been a nice trade. -9 ticks.

Switched to real.

Trade #5
Another attempt to rejoin the trend, which was pretty much played out by now. Short 82.43 and stopped out -6 ticks.

Switched to sim.

Trade #6
Tried to get back in to the trend. Too little too late. -7 ticks.

Not very happy about missing 2 signals, but other than that, I did take the trades as my plan called for. Need to find solace in small victories.

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  #71 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Sorry you had a bad day, but you already know why -- your stops were not placed correctly.

How many times do you pick the direction correctly, but get stopped because your stop is wrong? You need to be evaluating this.

Mike

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 Tiger45 
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Tried to focus on entries today. There were a lot of mismanaged exits, but I'll worry about that another day.

Trade #1
Price pushed up through the EMA, then pulled back. Entered on the pull back long at 82.23, but no follow through. Out BE+1.

Trade #2
Price did a reversal and dropped back down. Waited for confirmation, then went short 81.80 and price turned around for a brief pop up. Out BE +1.

Switched to sim because I wanted to try some stuff.

Trade #3
After skimming along under the EMA for awhile, I went short after the 06:40 bar. Out BE+1.

Trade #4
After the news, price hugged a trend line, weakening as it went up. Place a sell stop under the last green candle and was filled. Held my breathe waiting for the big retrace to stop me out, but it never happened. When price bounced off the EMA, I moved my stop. +15 ticks.

Trade #5
Took the signal short from a shorter time frame, and managed the trade from there as well. I think if I'm up on a trade, it's best to manage it from the higher time frame. This was a nice runner. +20 ticks.

I took 7 more trades in sim, all focused on the shorted time frame. Made 95 sim ticks and 2 real ticks. Yipee.

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 Tiger45 
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Just a quick update on what I've been doing.

I have been programming NT from my laptop at home, and I had left it connected over night. Went to work on Last Thursday as normal, and goofed around with different time frames and strategies. Made 37 trades, most losers, all in sim (or so I thought).

At 07:32 on Thursday, I was booted off NT by the broker because a second login was detected. I didn't put 2 and 2 together at that point, but tried to log back in unsuccessfully twice. On the third attempt, it let me back in and I went on my merry way playing around.

On Friday I looked at my statement and it was down a little over $400 on a half dozen trades. The log file on my laptop at home showed a connection at 07:32. After pouring through the log files, I saw what happened and pieced together this story (that's what I did most of Friday). It showed all sim trades until 07:32, then a broker disconnect. After logging back in, it showed the account was live. I am absolutely 100% positive I was trading in sim from my office computer, but the second login somehow screwed things up. I'm sending the log and trace files to NT for analysis, but I don't think anyone besides me really cares (I know Mirus didn't).

I'm just happy it was only a few hundred dollars. It could have been a disaster.

Moral of the story, do NOT leave NT up and running on any computer you are not sitting in front of!!

I was out of town on Monday, and yesterday I had to deal with a plumbing problem.

Today has been spent doing sim on the days I missed. My plan for the holiday break is to get methodical with my trading plan. I'm seeing a lack of focus and follow through in some areas, maybe trying to trade too many setups because I'm impatient.

Right now I'm feeling what I'm sure a lot of people feel - so close yet so far. Plowing through this alone is difficult, but maybe that's the best way.

I would appreciate any comments, suggestions, tips, etc. from traders who have made it over the hump. Not looking for anyone to hold my hand, but a flashlight would be nice.

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 bluemele 
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Tiger45 View Post
Just a quick update on what I've been doing.


Moral of the story, do NOT leave NT up and running on any computer you are not sitting in front of!!

Wow! Glad I never did that. Oh, wait I have. haha... Cost me about the same!

I did that on MT4 a few weeks ago and made 1500.00!

As far as getting better, I believe like you said, you have to be methodical. Go through and really FOCUS on what is good/bad and just stay the course. At some point you will be profitable, but it just may take 3-4 years.

I have noticed out of all the people in my trading group, the only really successful ones are the people who have been doing it 2.5+ years. I mean doing it by the 'same system'.

I am now 14 months with my current system and I am trading worse than month 2. But, I also believe that we all go through waves of "improvement" and you get worse before you get better.

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 Tiger45 
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I have noticed out of all the people in my trading group, the only really successful ones are the people who have been doing it 2.5+ years. I mean doing it by the 'same system'.

January will mark 1 year trading full time for me. Since then I've changed platforms, time frames, indicators, you name it. Because I wasn't consistent with anything, I'm not sure that my past experience counts for much. I've settled on this price action method and am determined to make it work.

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 bluemele 
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Tiger45 View Post
January will mark 1 year trading full time for me. Since then I've changed platforms, time frames, indicators, you name it. Because I wasn't consistent with anything, I'm not sure that my past experience counts for much. I've settled on this price action method and am determined to make it work.

Is there any other groups or people you can feed off of? Determination is good!

I know you can make a go of this, but for me it takes the confidence of other people having done it. I guess because I hear nothing but negativity all over the internet about scammers etc.. Maybe I should stop reading the boards.

Oh, read the market wizards book you recommended. Quite inspiring.

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 Tiger45 
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Got a little chopped up today. Overall I came out +4 ticks, but I didn't start making money until I switched to sim, so I lost where it counted.

My goal for the day was to pay attention to higher time frame S/R lines, and not get caught making trades within a range. The 30 min chart was in a trading range between approx 84.60 and 84.15 when I got to work.

The 06:40 bar broke support, then came back up. Support now became resistance. A short of the 06:50 bar close was the right trade, but I wanted to wait for more confirmation. Well, I waited too long.

Trade #1
Short 83.69 but too bars too late. Got out BE+1.

The market rose back up into that range, with the 07:35 bar hitting the top. The next bar had a failed breakout over the range.

Trade #2
Shorted the close of the 07:40 bar, figuring this was the top of the previous range. I was looking for a trend back to the bottom, around 84.15 and only looking for 15 ticks on the trade. Shorted 84.60 with a tight stop. -4 ticks.

Price made a triangle at the upper part of the range.

Trade #3
The 08:05 bar broke down through the triangle, and the next bar kept going. Put in a sell limit at 84.51, figuring price would test the bottom of the triangle which would now be resistance. Dead wrong. -11 ticks.

The 08:15 bar broke up through the range and I started watching the 1 min chart for an entry

Trade #4
I waited too long on this - until the second 1 min bar closed, then went long at 84.80 which was about the worst time. This long trade sure looks dumb on a solid red candle. Managed the stop aggressively, but still came up short. -7 ticks.

After 3 losses, I switched to sim.

Trade #5
When price failed to continue up and the 08:20 bar trended down, I waited for a trace back to the higher level where I went short at 84.72. Ended up with 1 tick of slip for a BE exit.

Trade #6
The 08:30 bar broke out of the range, switched to the 1 min chart and put a buy stop 1 tick above the 1st surge bar. Was filled and take up for a hard target. +25 ticks.

Trade #7
Entered at the close of the 08:35 bar and was stopped out on retrace. -11 ticks.

Trade #8
Entered a sell stop at the bottom of the 08:40 bar when it made LH and LL, thinking this might be a trend line break. Managed stop agressively. +6 ticks.

Trade #9
Entered sell stop under doji. Was filled but price help support at 08:30 swing high. +4 ticks.

Trade #10
After a few failures to break 85.38 I shorted 85.37 with a tight stop. After the 10:10 bar failed to do anything, I moved my stop to BE+1 and was taken out.

If there's a lesson here, it's S/R lines are fuzzy areas, and don't be too ready to jump in until price starts to move.

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 Tiger45 
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Today I brought in to work the strategies I had been working on at home for some further study and refinement. When I ran them on my work computer, I got RADICALLY different results, like not even the same planet. Also, when I tried running from 1/1/10 - 11/28/10, only the past 3 months were visible. If I ran it against the earlier contract, I not only got different months, but the overlapping months had different results.

After a few go-rounds with NT support, I decided to wipe the office computer and start fresh. My laptop was brand new with a single installation of NT, but my work computer had a couple of upgrades to both 6.5 and 7.0. Then when I was cleaning house, I decided to defrag the computer. I kicked that job off at 8am, and now at 6pm it's still running!

Looking forward to tomorrow!

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  #79 (permalink)
 cory 
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Tiger45 View Post
J..... I am absolutely 100% positive I was trading in sim from my office computer, but the second login somehow screwed things up. I'm sending the log and trace files to NT for analysis, but I don't think anyone besides me really cares (I know Mirus didn't.

...

I would appreciate any comments, suggestions, tips, etc. from traders who have made it over the hump. Not looking for anyone to hold my hand, but a flashlight would be nice.

I have 2 ninja licenses, one start with @SIM and one start with @DOR. So I actually use diff license just to be sure.
Consistency performance with identical live trade environment so there is virtual no change when you switch to live is what you aim for.

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  #80 (permalink)
 rassi 
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Thanks, but it would be better if I were making money.

Why do you think your not?

This is not a critisisam but after having looked through your excellent detailing of your trades I really cant understand how your reading price action...please can you post a blank chart next to one you have marked up next time?

Also have you considered using 2 timeframes, there appears to be little context to your trading?

Whats your expected R:R on each trade? Do you have any idea what % hit rate you have?

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 Tiger45 
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rassi View Post
Why do you think your not?

This is not a critisisam but after having looked through your excellent detailing of your trades I really cant understand how your reading price action...please can you post a blank chart next to one you have marked up next time?

Also have you considered using 2 timeframes, there appears to be little context to your trading?

Whats your expected R:R on each trade? Do you have any idea what % hit rate you have?

Don't worry about offending me or hurting my feelings. I have very thick skin. In fact, I welcome comments from more experienced traders.

The reason I think I'm not making money is fear. I haven't yet been able to let go. I know this because I am making money in sim. If you separate out my real trades from my sim trades, I'm doing OK. When I'm sim trading, I'll take marginal trades (with the Al Brooks - close is close enough - advice), but with real money, I'm more fearful.

Today I reloaded NT and sim traded. I made 6 trades: 4 winners and 2 losers for 52 ticks. My two biggest winners came from trades I'm too afraid to take in real life: Breakouts from swing highs. It seems that when I take one of those trades with real money, price fills me, then retraces and stops me out. I know I'm supposed to take ALL the trades the plan calls for, but I still find myself cherry picking setups. Part of my brain calls it 'discretionary trading', but the other half calls it fear.

The most probable reason you can't understand my interpretation of price action is I'm not doing it right.

As for my statistics, I'm not focusing on that right now. My simplified, 3 step process to trading is
  1. Identify the setup
  2. Take the trade
  3. Manage the trade

The programming I'm doing is going to help me with the first item, which I'm doing in concert with the second item.
I'll post my journal a little later today.

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  #82 (permalink)
 itrade2win 
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The reason I think I'm not making money is fear. I haven't yet been able to let go. I know this because I am making money in sim. If you separate out my real trades from my sim trades, I'm doing OK. When I'm sim trading, I'll take marginal trades (with the Al Brooks - close is close enough - advice), but with real money, I'm more fearful.

Tiger,

My best advise is to identify your setups as "A" "B" "C" with "A" having the highest winning % to "C" having the lowest winning % and start out only taking your "A" setup trades and build equity and more importantly confidence. As your equity and confidence grows, then start trading your other setups. If you find yourself in a slump go back to the "A" setup trades and keep going at it until you find yourself building on this method. You will need to have patience to let some signals pass that you have identified as not an "A" setup. More importantly, money management is vital and if you're not trading well then stop for the day.

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 cory 
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itrade2win View Post
Tiger,

... and start out only taking your "A" setup trades and build equity and more importantly confidence. As your equity and confidence grows, then start trading your other setups. ...

this is more of men problem i think. if a man can do a string of small wins then he thinks he can go for the moon. But if you can build enough equity and use that equity as the 'house' money then it could reduce your performance anxiety. I suffer the same problem so this is more from somebody else's experience.

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  #84 (permalink)
 itrade2win 
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cory View Post
this is more of men problem i think. if a man can do a string of small wins then he thinks he can go for the moon. But if you can build enough equity and use that equity as the 'house' money then it could reduce your performance anxiety. I suffer the same problem so this is more from somebody else's experience.


I'm sorry, but I don't look at it this way. To me fear = lack of confidence either in oneself or in his system. So, if he has a setup which produces a high winning % then if he can build his confidence on taking these trades. They don't have to be small wins and they of course will not always win. If fear is the psychological issue here then he needs to build confidence with a setup that he is most comfortable taking and not having fear to bail out of a trade because he takes some heat from it. I had noticed that he takes a lot of +1 tick trades. So maybe his target is way out of reach, but an 8 to 10 tick target is not hard to take in the CL market.

Tiger, would you elaborate on your strategies and why to take so many +1 tick trade results?

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  #85 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
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Tiger,

My best advise is to identify your setups as "A" "B" "C" with "A" having the highest winning % to "C" having the lowest winning % and start out only taking your "A" setup trades and build equity and more importantly confidence. As your equity and confidence grows, then start trading your other setups. If you find yourself in a slump go back to the "A" setup trades and keep going at it until you find yourself building on this method. You will need to have patience to let some signals pass that you have identified as not an "A" setup. More importantly, money management is vital and if you're not trading well then stop for the day.

I totally agree that it's a confidence issue. That's why I've been programming the strategies. I found a setup that had a ~40% win rate, and I wanted study each trade to get the context of the setup. My recent computer whoa's have stalled that for a day or two.

My biggest strength is money management. Fear does that to you! I've been trading full time for about a year, and my account is pretty much where it started - including commissions. I have daily stop limits, weekly limits, and consecutive loss limits. I ALWAYS have a stop in when I put on a trade.


cory View Post
this is more of men problem i think.

Hey Mike, can I change my handle to 'Pussy Cat'?

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 Tiger45 
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6 CL trades today and net positive (sim), but if you lift up the hood, there's room for improvement.

Trade #1
This was just plain stupid and I'm going to let it go at that. I saw the congestion and took the trade anyway. I rationalized it with LL, LH, spinner doji nonsense, but the truth is I shorted in the middle of a range. -6 ticks.

Trade #2
Price closed below the EMA after making a LL. The previous bar also tested the upper end of the range. Another dumb trade, because I traded in the middle of a range. -11 ticks.

Trade #3
The only reason I took this trade was because it was sim. I placed a buy stop 1 tick above the range after the prior strong bar. Had a hard stop in. +25 ticks.

Trade #4
After moving higher, price returned and tested the prior range. Figuring prior resistance now became support, I went long 1 tick above the prior bar. I didn't do the math on this, because I should have had my stop below the low of the prior bar, but instead kept it at 11 ticks. It was good that I got out BE +1 because I would have been stopped out at the very bottom of the next bar. HOWEVER, price didn't go below the prior bar, which was the logical stop.

Trade #5
This is another trade I wouldn't have taken in real life because it was so close to the oil report. The 07:10 bearish engulfing bar and the next two bars indicated a failure to go higher. As the 07:25 bar fell, I placed a limit order at 85.64. I took 10 ticks of heat, then the oil report came out. Got 3 ticks of slip in my favor. How real is that? +28 ticks.

Trade #6
The market had been ranging all morning, and the big 08:45 bar pushed right up to the upper limit. I had been looking for a 15 tick scalp trade and had the DOM set on 15 ticks and forgot to change it back to 25 ticks. Place another buy stop above the big green bar that initially set the range at 06:10. Got filled and hit the target for +15 ticks.

The second chart is a clean version of the first chart, uploaded by request.

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 itrade2win 
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Tiger45 View Post
6 CL trades today and net positive (sim), but if you lift up the hood, there's room for improvement.


Trade #3
The only reason I took this trade was because it was sim. I placed a buy stop 1 tick above the range after the prior strong bar. Had a hard stop in. +25 ticks.

Trade #5
This is another trade I wouldn't have taken in real life because it was so close to the oil report. The 07:10 bearish engulfing bar and the next two bars indicated a failure to go higher. As the 07:25 bar fell, I placed a limit order at 85.64. I took 10 ticks of heat, then the oil report came out. Got 3 ticks of slip in my favor. How real is that? +28 ticks.

Tiger,

You are creating conflicting habits here. If you wouldn't take the trade with a live cash acct then don't take it with sim. You must treat your sim trading like you would your live acct otherwise your bad habits will follow your live trading and you don't want to do that.

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 Tiger45 
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Tiger, would you elaborate on your strategies and why to take so many +1 tick trade results?

This comes from my aversion to loss. If I get ~8 ticks to the good, I move my stop to BE +1. More often than not, the trade comes back and takes me out. My theory is that if I time it right, price will continue in my favor. My minimum target is 15 ticks for a scalp, and I usually shoot for 25 ticks. My post game analysis often shows me that if I just practice basic trade management, like trailing my stop under/over the preceding bar, I would come out better. Again, I'm not worried about trade management at this point. My goal at this stage is to perfect the entry. Which leads to ...


itrade2win View Post
Tiger,

You are creating conflicting habits here. If you wouldn't take the trade with a live cash acct then don't take it with sim. You must treat your sim trading like you would your live acct otherwise your bad habits will follow your live trading and you don't want to do that.

There is something to be said for this, but on the flip side, if I discover that most of my marginal/fearful trades are actually profitable (I keep notes on these in a paper journal), this may embolden me to try them for real. When I'm trading in sim, I'm as focused and serious as I am with real money. This difference is in those marginal (untested) trades.

Really what all this comes down to for me is confidence in a setup - and experience.

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 itrade2win 
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This comes from my aversion to loss. If I get ~8 ticks to the good, I move my stop to BE +1. More often than not, the trade comes back and takes me out. My theory is that if I time it right, price will continue in my favor. My minimum target is 15 ticks for a scalp, and I usually shoot for 25 ticks. My post game analysis often shows me that if I just practice basic trade management, like trailing my stop under/over the preceding bar, I would come out better. Again, I'm not worried about trade management at this point. My goal at this stage is to perfect the entry. Which leads to ...


My guess is that you are trading with only (1) contract and if that is the case then I would suggest that you look for setups that would give you the better opportunity to hit your minimum target and that should be based on PA = Price Action. My stop is set at 25 ticks and I hardly ever move it. I trade with a (2) targets set at +10 +25, but at times again based on the setup I may move the targets to +8 +15. If price comes back at me I just close the trade and I go by feeling by watching how price moves on the Dom if it is not going to continue and hit my 2nd target I simply just close the trade. But there has been times that I am confident that price will continue and let the price come back against me a few ticks and let the trade move back in my direction.




Quoting 
There is something to be said for this, but on the flip side, if I discover that most of my marginal/fearful trades are actually profitable (I keep notes on these in a paper journal), this may embolden me to try them for real. When I'm trading in sim, I'm as focused and serious as I am with real money. This difference is in those marginal (untested) trades.

Really what all this comes down to for me is confidence in a setup - and experience.

I know myself, and if I'm going to create a habit trading with sim, then I know I will carry this habit "good or bad" over to my live cash acct trading and I just don't personally like it.

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 Big Mike 
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Tiger45 View Post
This comes from my aversion to loss. If I get ~8 ticks to the good, I move my stop to BE +1. More often than not, the trade comes back and takes me out. My theory is that if I time it right, price will continue in my favor. My minimum target is 15 ticks for a scalp, and I usually shoot for 25 ticks. My post game analysis often shows me that if I just practice basic trade management, like trailing my stop under/over the preceding bar, I would come out better. Again, I'm not worried about trade management at this point. My goal at this stage is to perfect the entry.

Speaking from experience - when I used to move my stop to BE +1 I thought it sounded like a good idea. I was wrong. The market doesn't give a damn about what you are doing as an individual trader. Why is your long or short trade suddenly invalid and a mistake or wrong just because price comes back to your BE +1 level?

If you are scalping, then scalp. That means take everything off before you get to the 8 ticks. If you are trading for bigger profits, then you will have to accept that you must set stops where the market dictates, and where they align with your risk management. This very often means a trade may go in your favor the first few seconds, then retrace some, and then go again in your favor for a big move. Such is the nature of markets. You could wait for the second entry but then you will find reason to mull over all the first entries that blasted off without you.

Psychology has a huge role here. All those BE +1 stop outs are affecting you mentally. If you are picking the direction correctly, then why not focus less on the entry, and more on the exit. The exit is what dictates profit.

Mike

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  #91 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
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My guess is that you are trading with only (1) contract and if that is the case then I would suggest that you look for setups that would give you the better opportunity to hit your minimum target and that should be based on PA = Price Action. My stop is set at 25 ticks and I hardly ever move it. I trade with a (2) targets set at +10 +25, but at times again based on the setup I may move the targets to +8 +15. If price comes back at me I just close the trade and I go by feeling by watching how price moves on the Dom if it is not going to continue and hit my 2nd target I simply just close the trade. But there has been times that I am confident that price will continue and let the price come back against me a few ticks and let the trade move back in my direction.

Yes, only 1 contract. I used to trade with 2 where the first target was 5 ticks, and I almost always got my first target. However, I suffered from 'movingmystopitis' really bad, and I found that I had a lot of very small wins and it only took 1 full 2 contact stop out to undo it all.

I think confidence IS the key, and Mike reiterates that point on his reply. I remember reading a post by cbratin (I think) where he mentioned the exact same thing: trust your trade and put the stop where the market tells you that you're wrong. A lot of people feel this way.

Tomorrow I will give it a try.

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  #92 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
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Today I abandoned moving my stop to BE+1 on most trades and just let the trade go. The result was poor, meaning had I continued moving my stop quickly, I would have done better. As it was, I came out +7 ticks on 7 trades.

Obviously my stop out trades weren't great, but I still can't help feeling that moving to BE quickly isn't a bad idea. But 1 day doesn't tell the whole story, and as I get better at this, perhaps things will change.

There was a slight downward trend to the early morning session, so I was leaning short. However, there did appear to be some strong support around 86.50 from the 2 hammers around 01:00 and a higher low at 04:00

Trade #1
Price had been rolling over and descended below the EMA. When the 05:30 bar hit bottom and started it ascent, I put a buy stop above and was carried upward. The next bar continued upward and I had +9 ticks and was sorely tempted to move my stop, but left it at -11. The bar reversed and I was stopped out. -11 ticks.

Trade #2
The bar that stopped me out was a strong down bar, and I went short at the bar close. This trade wasn't too smart, since I was aware of the strong support at the 86.50 area, which is why I went long on the first trade. Right idea, poor timing and decision. Never had a chance to move my stop. Full stop -11 ticks.

Trade #3
Price failed to move higher and started back down. The 05:55 hammer failed to move price higher, and got a close under the EMA. Placed a sell stop 1 tick below the open of the big green bar and got caught in a downward tidal wave. I had 22 ticks MFE in the trade with a hard stop of 25 ticks, and left everything alone rather than lock in something. Really poor trade management. -11 ticks.

Trade #4
Still trying to impose my will on the market. -11 ticks.

Trade #5
As price started to climb back in to the early morning range, I decided against putting in a buy stop at the most recent pivot high at 86.91, but instead place a buy stop just over the morning congestion. Was filled on the next bar for a nice trade. +25 ticks.

Trade #6
After the big run, the 07:20 bar formed an inside doji (rare!), then another doji making LH and LL. Placed a sell stop at the bottom and was filled for a nice trade. +25 ticks.

Trade #7
As price resumed its uptrend, I again decided against putting a buy stop at the most recent pivot high, but instead waited for price to push through that, then placed the buy limit order at 87.37 and was filled. Once again, poor trade management caused me to sit on my hands as MFE approached 21 ticks. This time I decided to outsmart myself and move my stop to BE+1 where I was taken out, right before price resumed its climb. Had I just did what I had been doing all morning, it would have been +25 tick trade.

So doing the arithmetic, if I would have been consistent in my trade management, I would have come out +32 ticks by capturing the full 25 ticks on the last trade.

Had I moved to BE+1 like I usually do, trades 1 and 2 would have been +2 instead of -22, trade #3 was just stupidity for not taking something away (would have BE+1 at a min), and trade 4 would have been a full stop anyway. That leaves me +43 ticks. A slightly better result.

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 itrade2win 
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Tiger,

Good job, holding onto your trades without moving your stops. I bet that may have been hard for you to change from your old habit.

You would have done better if you had taken Longs today. If you look at a RTH 5 or 15 min chart you can see that the market was in a bullish channel from the PD and continued the whole day right from the open.

Good luck tomorrow!

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 Tiger45 
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Tiger,

Good job, holding onto your trades without moving your stops. I bet that may have been hard for you to change from your old habit.

You would have done better if you had taken Longs today. If you look at a RTH 5 or 15 min chart you can see that the market was in a bullish channel from the PD and continued the whole day right from the open.

Good luck tomorrow!

Well .... I'm not a true believer at this point, but my mind is open to the idea.

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 rassi 
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6 CL trades today and net positive (sim), but if you lift up the hood, there's room for improvement.

Trade #1
This was just plain stupid and I'm going to let it go at that. I saw the congestion and took the trade anyway. I rationalized it with LL, LH, spinner doji nonsense, but the truth is I shorted in the middle of a range. -6 ticks.

Trade #2
Price closed below the EMA after making a LL. The previous bar also tested the upper end of the range. Another dumb trade, because I traded in the middle of a range. -11 ticks.

Trade #3
The only reason I took this trade was because it was sim. I placed a buy stop 1 tick above the range after the prior strong bar. Had a hard stop in. +25 ticks.

Trade #4
After moving higher, price returned and tested the prior range. Figuring prior resistance now became support, I went long 1 tick above the prior bar. I didn't do the math on this, because I should have had my stop below the low of the prior bar, but instead kept it at 11 ticks. It was good that I got out BE +1 because I would have been stopped out at the very bottom of the next bar. HOWEVER, price didn't go below the prior bar, which was the logical stop.

Trade #5
This is another trade I wouldn't have taken in real life because it was so close to the oil report. The 07:10 bearish engulfing bar and the next two bars indicated a failure to go higher. As the 07:25 bar fell, I placed a limit order at 85.64. I took 10 ticks of heat, then the oil report came out. Got 3 ticks of slip in my favor. How real is that? +28 ticks.

Trade #6
The market had been ranging all morning, and the big 08:45 bar pushed right up to the upper limit. I had been looking for a 15 tick scalp trade and had the DOM set on 15 ticks and forgot to change it back to 25 ticks. Place another buy stop above the big green bar that initially set the range at 06:10. Got filled and hit the target for +15 ticks.

The second chart is a clean version of the first chart, uploaded by request.

chart attached from the other day

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 Tiger45 
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chart attached from the other day

Geez - I feel like a moron. When you said the chart was from the other day, I thought you meant that I posted the wrong chart. I didn't realize that you uploaded a chart with commentary on it to help me. Sorry it took so long for me to get it.

Thanks for this.

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 Tiger45 
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No CL trades today, but I did take 1 6E trade for 26 ticks (pips?).

I put the two instruments up on separate monitors, and I'm embarrassed to admit that I had never noticed how correlated the two instruments are.

That begs the question - why put up with the craziness of CL when 6E gives the same signals? Does anyone trade both?

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 Big Mike 
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Tiger45 View Post
That begs the question - why put up with the craziness of CL when 6E gives the same signals? Does anyone trade both?

Sure, many trade CL and the EUR/USD. @FulcrumTrader is one, his primary arsenal afaik is CL+6E.

Mike

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 Tiger45 
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Didn't see the forest for the trees. Today I was focused on trading with the trend. CL was up big, so I thought, great, up trend. I marked up my charts with S/R lines (actually, only support since there weren't any recent resistance lines to be had) and off the races I went.

Trade #1
After topping out, CL started down. This drop slowed right where I had a support line, so I went long at 90.13. I kept my stop at 10 ticks where I was stopped out. -10 ticks.

I tried to catch a short trade on the 06:45 bar with a limit sell at 89.85 but wasn't filled. Price continued to drop and stopped at a 5 min support line.

Trade #2
Went long at 89.45 and planned on riding it back to the EMA. On the 07:05 bar, after about 8 ticks to the good, I moved my stop to the bottom of the 06:50 hammer, thinking that might offer support. I was stopped out on the 06:55 bar. +4 ticks.

I had drawn a 60 min support line that was just a hair under the previous 5 min line. As price moved into that, I'm still thinking retrace to the EMA.

Trade #3
When long 89.27 on the 06:55 bar, but this time moved my stop to BE+2 after the 07:25 bar started showing me some love. Short relationship. +2 ticks.

So now I'm looking at the amazing down trending day and trying to figure out why I was so fixated on long trades. Here's what I came up with.

The first trade was almost forgivable, since the trend was up and price had come down to a 5 minute support level, and was still close to the EMA.

I did try to short the 06:45 bar, missed entry, and didn't chase it. I was still under the illusion that there was support nearby.

Both the second and third trades were right at what I believed was support. By the time price broke through the 60 min support at 07:30, the move was over.

On a brighter note, I took 3 trades on 6E and made 20 ticks.

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 Big Mike 
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Thanks for posting.

In my experience, when traders try to go long from an extreme (like your first long) it generally has something to do with wanting to get a "big win", so you are trying to get in "early". You might ask yourself if that fits.

Your next trades, all longs after price was clearly moving down, were likely because you were in the mindset of "longs". You were determined to make the long work, and again you wanted to catch it as early as possible in the new up trend that was about to develop so you could maximize the profit gains ("big winner").

I make this type of mistake too every now and then. Luckily I usually catch it right away. It happened just a few days ago, where I was trading the wrong side of the market and then as I was telling my trading buddy I realized "duh, I am making a big mistake" and then I corrected myself.

Some might call it the "catch a falling knife" syndrome.

Anyway, keep at it! A trading master is just someone who has made all the mistakes and survived. Important thing is to keep measuring yourself consistently and keep moving forward, just work on two things at any given time in a two week period, and measure yourself every single day on how well you accomplished those two things (net profit aside).

Mike

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