Today was very choppy with no clear, lasting trends. Managed to escape with minor burns.
I didn't take the first short at 05:15 because I just got to the office and noticed it with only a minute or two to make up my mind. Since I don't like being rushed, I passed on that winner.
After a weak push through the EMA, got a bigger bear bar that closed under. Shorted 82.12 and got out BE+1.
After the push up to the HOD, a nice trend back to the EMA formed. Went long at the close of the 07:50 bar and was filled at 82.61. Was expecting a test of the high, but only got another BE+1.
That failed push to the HOD was followed by another, even weaker attempt, and a second lower high was formed at 08:25.
I viewed the 08:45 bar as a failed break out, and a close below the EMA, so I entered a stop sell at 82.56 which was the low of the last bar to close above the EMA. Since the EMA was still rising, I was expecting another attempt to push higher, and was hoping to fade the extreme. I put a tight stop of a few ticks above the failed break out bar, but was stopped out. -7 ticks.
I wonder if anyone else saw that trade the same way I did. (Feel free to chime in...) I was conflicted about taking it because the 08:45 bar was an outside bar that spanned the EMA, but decided to take a chance mainly because of the lower highs being made and a close under the EMA.
Switched to sim.
A little late to the party on this trade, because I wasn't paying attention like I should have been. Entered short at 82.41, 1 bar too late. Trailed my stop to the high of each bar as it closed, and was stopped out with a small monopoly money gain. +6 ticks.
After looking back on this day, I'm not sure if I could have done any better. I'm looking forward to reading other CL journals for tips. I thought about trading off the 1 minute chart or throwing on some Bollinger Bands and trying to fade the extremes, but at this point in my trading career, I'm not nearly that good.
I think you are doing fine. I think today you weren't seeing it clearly maybe?
I found a trade for a quick 9 ticks but the market was ranging at that point. It seemed weak, but ranged for another 2 hours roughly. Now it seems to be dropping.
My advice is to leave your charts alone and keep them simple. I am just sim'ing Al Brooks method (or at least part of it) and doing pretty good. I mostly ignore the EMA and use it rarely and don't put too much weight into the angle or anything like that except for when there is a big move, then I look at a gap close or something.
Your trades today seemed riskier than usual (forced). I don't think it is the market, but something that changed your way of interpreting today.
Good trades @ 9:05 on a breakout short, @ 10:00 long (NEWS...), @ 10:20 long, @ 12:30 short.
Mixed feelings about today. My rules kept me out of the morning chop and news cycle, but they also kept me out of a winning trade.
After the oil report, the 07:40 and 07:45 bars formed LH's and LL's with a close under the EMA, but the overlap was too much for me, so I passed on the short trade. So I watched the price fall 70 ticks and was trying not to get discouraged about it.
Even during the drop, there was still lots of overlapping bars, so I switched to sim.
After a drop of 100 ticks, it looked like it was ready for a retrace. Placed a stop order at 80.85 after the close of the 08:30 bar and was filled. Had a hard target and got it easy. +25 ticks.
After that, I was feeling a little better and switched to real money.
Price topped out and started forming a triangle. The overall trend was down, but the recent trend was still up. I was going to target 15 ticks to the EMA and after the close of the 09:10 bar, put my order in at 81.39 hoping to get another failed push high and a good fill. I was very nervous about taking this trade because everything was so whippy and it was close to the EMA, so I moved my stop to BE+1 after about 4 ticks. I was stopped out, then price ran down to the EMA for the 15 ticks I was hoping for. +1 tick.
This bummed me out, because I had a plan that worked, and didn't stick to it. Same thing happened yesterday. Took a deep breathe and moved on.
Price bumped off the EMA, but without any enthusiasm. The 09:40 bar made a LL and LH, and the next bar was a big bear bar that closed under the EMA. I waited 1 more bar for confirmation, then when the 09:50 bar closed under the EMA, I went short with a market order on the next bar for a full stop. -11 ticks.
Switched back to sim.
Same thing as the last trade. Got LH and LL with a close under the EMA. Went short and was stopped out. -11 ticks.
After reviewing the chart, my only observation is that on trades 3 and 4, the EMA was flat and I was just in a range and didn't see it.
And as for that giant run at the end, I don't have a clue as yet how to play that, other than jump in. Even the 1 min chart barely gave you a pullback entry.
The following 3 users say Thank You to Tiger45 for this post:
A couple of observations if you don't mind. I like it when you give me yours, so I hope you do not mind this.
1. Moving back and forth from sim/live shows a lack of confidence. I think it is better to stick with one and set your loss limit etc.. It should be no different, so it won't matter. I used to do this and it always ended up costing me and I got some good advice from some others that said, "DON'T DO IT!".
2. Reading your terminology I see certain words that are showing me a difference in your mentality than just a week or two ago.
3. I think the first 3 were all reasonable considering what I have read about your method. However, the 4th one doesn't make sense to me? Is that a GAP fill?
I guess if your target is 15 ticks on some and 25 on others that tells me that the 25 seem like better trades. Then, why take the 15? I do the same stuff, daily....
Why take the same risk with a lesser reward? For me it is because I want to trade.... I have to be 'in a trade'.
On the last trade, that is a nice looking doji candle right before you got in. Then, another doji on that nice long run @ 10:40'ish.
You are a great trader and I enjoy reading about your trades.
I made a gift on 2 ticks, and then one 100+ tick move today on CL! All SIM>>>>> I can sim on stuff like this fine, but when I go live, I have an issue...
Very perceptive of you - I did suffer a crisis of faith today. There were several trades I just penciled in that worked, but I don't have any rules for them, so I didn't take them. That was frustrating. Then, after trade #2, I was mad that I didn't follow my plan.
Really? How so? For the better, I hope. I'd like to think I'm making progress.
It was the same as the previous one: Bar closes below EMA, wait 1 bar to see if it climbs above. If not, go short. Perhaps that dragon fly doji should have tipped me off, or the flatness of the EMA. It was a bad trade.
Good point. I'm always uneasy shorting right above the EMA, but all the other signals were there, and there was room.
Don't mind your comments at all. In fact, they've been very helpful.
Trade #4 was perhaps stretching it, seeing how that bar retraced before my entry. However, it did fit my plan (except for the flat EMA).
The following user says Thank You to Tiger45 for this post:
I highlighted what I consider to be challenging words or thoughts to answer your question. This is just an example and not the same words you used. My point is that I hear a different tone from your writing showing that your confidence has gone down some. It may be nothing but something to be conscious of.
Oh, ok, I didn't realize that was a rule. I got it. Sorry.
Lot's of opportunities today, but I only scratched out lunch money. I let the 05:30 news keep me out of a great long trade, and after my first trade I fell asleep at the switch and missed a great short. There were 2 shorts I had limit orders in for that didn't get filled because I was being too cautious. Oh well.
After the run up and double top, price dropped through the EMA and consolidated in a triangle (drew the bottom trend line). Price broke out big and pushed up through the EMA. I thought this would be the 3rd attempt at a high (3rd time's a charm), and I put a buy stop at 82.32 which was the high of the previous bar. Got filled, got 8 ticks, got BE+1.
After the big drop and hammer at 07:50, I was expecting a long trade. Went long at the close of the 07:55 bar. Right idea, just too soon. +1 tick.
I saw the triangle forming and was expecting a breakout to the flat side, but it was so close to the EMA, I didn't want to go long.
After the big run, I was looking for a long trade. The 08:35 bar had HH and LL and I went long at the close. I kept a very tight watch on it because it was a counter trend bar, and as soon as I was able I went to BE+1 where I was stopped out.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Tiger45 for this post:
Feeling pretty good for someone who hit his daily loss limit. I broke some rules and got burned for it - which is a good thing.
Saw price run up, stall, then make a second stab at breaking 81.85. This was the HOD, and I wanted to buy that.
I meant to put a buy stop 2 ticks above the high, but I submitted a market order and was filled at 81.80 and was immediately down 4 ticks. While I was debating with myself whether to go flat or try for a break even, I was stopped out. I've done this to myself countless times on sim while I was learning NT, and one of my rules is to read the $%^ing message before clicking OK. Broke that rule. New rule - if you're unhappy with a trade, just get out. Immediately. -11 ticks.
This is a combo of broken rules. I traded during the 05:30 news, and I rationalized it to myself that I gave up a valid, profitable trade yesterday because I didn't trade during the news. I also shorted this uptrend, right above the EMA. All very stupid, and I'm glad I was stopped out. If you break a rule and it works, you'll be tempted to break it again. To further add to my broken rules/stupidity, I didn't wait for a confirming bar after the close below the EMA. Thank you sir, may I have another? -11 ticks.
The market was making new highs and I wanted to be in on it.
The 05:50 bar broke resistance and closed above that 81.85 level. I targeted a pullback to 1 tick above support and got a great fill at 81.86 which was the low of that bar. At this point I thought I had a tiger by the tail, but the next bar retraced and took me out at the low if its bar. Fitting, I guess. +1 tick.
Not willing to leave it alone, I targeted a pullback to the 05:50 outside bar and trend line support at 81.95 and was filled and stopped out on the trend line break. -11 ticks.
At this point I hit my daily loss limit and debated doing 1 more real trade, since the first trade really was an accident. Decided to go to sim.
Did what I was supposed to do. Waited another bar after a close below the EMA. I opted to cancel my hard target of 25 ticks and manage it manually. +21 ticks
With the 2 hammers offering support, I went long at 81.67. This trade was actually another mistake, since my intent was to place a buy stop 1 tick higher at 81.68. I managed this stop manually. +7 ticks.
Was looking like the up move was done. Shorted 81.66, got 8 ticks and BE+1.
At this point I had some office work to do, so I stopped watching. Looking back, I probably would have been stopped out of the short on the 08:20 bar, and hopefully would have been smart (or lucky) enough to take the next short at the 08:30 bar.
This week I finished down 18 ticks in real trading and up 43 ticks on sim. For the month (only 2 weeks) I'm up 7 ticks real (-6 after commissions) and up 34 on sim.
I cancelled my hard target of 25 ticks in favor of letting the market give me what ever, and managing the stop manually. In hindsight, I would have had 2 sim trades for +50 ticks instead of +28. I don't have enough experience to see if it's better to take multiple 25 tick winners as opposed to getting big runners.
The following 4 users say Thank You to Tiger45 for this post: