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Tiger's Price Action Journal

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  #21 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: CL, ES
 
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Posts: 309 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 203 given, 422 received

A very whippy day. Slightly biased at the open for long trades because of the overnight action. When the 05:25 bar hit the high of the 04:50 bar and formed a double top, I was thinking short. The next bar formed a LL, but it bounced of the EMA and price was so close to the EMA and in an up trend, I decided to pass on the trade.

The next 90 minutes or so price whipped around the EMA with big tails, so no trades.

The 07:05 bar was a huge surge, and I thought the up trend was going to resume, but while waiting for a pullback entry, price kept dropping to below the EMA.

Trade #1
Even though the 07:25 bar was green, it did form a LL and LH, so I shorted 3 ticks above the close with a tight stop. I got a few ticks to the good and immediately moved my stop to BE + 1 where I was taken out. +1 tick.

Price continued to climb after that. and after the 07:50 bar I drew a trend line. I was looking for price to challenge the 07:05 bar high, and it did go right past that.

Trade #2
The 08:00 and 08:05 bars showed there were now buyers, and both bars hit the trend line I drew earlier. I went long 83.10 at the close of the 08:05 bar. +20 ticks.

I didn't see the price hitting 83.38 three times in a row until after my review. In all honesty, even if I had noticed that, I should have also noticed the sloppy right triangle price was forming and then expect a break out long.What I was looking for was a strong break of the trend line down,or another push up.

Trade #3
The 08:45 bar was a strong break down, but it didn't go past the EMA. I was expecting it to test the high on the next bar before continuing down, and place an order short at 83.26. In hindsight, this wasn't very smart. It just worked out because the day was so volatile. +10 ticks.

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  #22 (permalink)
ymoca
Calgary, AB
 
 
Posts: 5 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

Hi,

Just want to say that I've been following your Journal since you started it.

I am also trading CL (or should I say trying to) using a 5min chart. I find it interesting to read your thought process for why you took your trades. Very informative. You seem to have a really good handle on the price action.

Some days I really struggle to get a read on things in real time. (especially days like today) I guess I need a lot more screen time.

Keep up the good trading!

Cheers

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  #23 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: CL, ES
 
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Posts: 309 since Sep 2010
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ymoca View Post
Hi,

Just want to say that I've been following your Journal since you started it.

I am also trading CL (or should I say trying to) using a 5min chart. I find it interesting to read your thought process for why you took your trades. Very informative. You seem to have a really good handle on the price action.

Some days I really struggle to get a read on things in real time. (especially days like today) I guess I need a lot more screen time.

Keep up the good trading!

Cheers

Thanks for the kind words. I'm just trying to understand this stuff myself!!

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  #24 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: CL, ES
 
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Posts: 309 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 203 given, 422 received

Today was a wash with 3 trades. I'm going to rededicate myself to finding a good entry to join a run away trend.

Since the over night session was slightly down, I was looking for short trades. The first hour or so was flat and nothing interesting happened until the 20 tick bear bar at 06:05. That bar closed under the EMA, but stopped right at the pivot lows from the 05:05 and 05:35 bars, so I wanted to wait for additional confirmation. The 06:10 bar pushed up to the EMA, penetrated the low of the previous bar, but stopped right at its low. This caused me to wait 1 more bar, and the next bar formed a higher low and stopped right at the EMA.

I wanted to wait another bar to see if price would go up past the EMA, or continue down, but there was no entry as the 06:20 bar dropped hard. Having missed a 70 tick drop, I waited for a pullback to rejoin the trend, but I didn't see the pattern I liked so I didn't make a trade.

Price ran up like crazy before the news, and I just watched. After the news, there was the usual spastic gyrations. I noticed the triangle price was forming and was waiting for a breakout in some direction.

Trade #1
The 08:20 bar broke out from the triangle, but stopped just above the EMA, I waited 1 more bar, and when the 08:25 bar closed under the EMA, I entered a short at 83.42, a tick above the close. I was filled on the next bar and stopped out on the retrace by 1 tick. -11 ticks.

Price continued to drop without a pullback until the little bull spinner at 08:50.

The 08:55 bar gave a strong break to the bear trend line, and I entered a stop order long at 83.01, figuring there would be some retracement. I was looking for a quick 15 tick scalp, but I wasn't filled.

Trade #2
The 09:35 and 09:40 bars formed a double bottom that was almost to the tick of the low of the day at 06:30. After the 09:45 bar closed green, I entered long at 82.81 hoping for a 15 tick scalp, but only got to 13 ticks before stopping me out. +1 tick.

Trade #3
When price finally broke above the EMA, I went long at 82.81 and was looking for a full target (25 ticks), figuring it just couldn't go down anymore. Got out on the next bar with my trailing stop. +10 ticks.

I know there was a better way to handle today's action. I remember reading in Brook's book that if the trend is really strong, just get in anywhere. Psychologically, I'm nowhere near being able to do that.

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  #25 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: CL, ES
 
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Posts: 309 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 203 given, 422 received

Today I tried to do 2 new things at once: Test out a new trade entry strategy and play with NinjaTrader's chart trading. I placed many trades today, and at one point was down over 100 ticks, but ended up the day +43 ticks. This was entirely due to dumb luck when at the last trade of the day, I tried to take a 26 tick profit on a short and ended up selling another contract right before the big drop.

In real life, I would have quit trading after the 3rd stop out on Trade #4. I omitted the other 20 trades I made because I was just rolling around in barbed wire and goofing. The 7 trades here are ones I was trying on, and I threw in the last short just for fun.

I didn't see any trades in the morning, and with lots of news coming, I just watched.

Trade #1
Against my better judgement (trading close to news), I saw the 05:40 and 05:45 bars form a 2 bar reversal, and I went long at the close of the second bar. -11 ticks.

Trade #2
I saw price topping out and when the 05:55 bar came down and then back up, I drew the trend line and put OCO stop sell orders in at 83.05 and 82.85. When price dropped on 06:00 bar, I was filled and my auto trail moved me to BE+1 after 8 ticks where I was taken out right before the drop. This all happened very fast. I was in and out within a second or two. Maybe I should either drop the auto trail or put my stop sell a little higher. I put it 1 tick below the lows of the two previous bars, but maybe I should have done it at the end of the body. +1 tick.

When the 06:05 bar retraced up from the bottom, I was ready to put a stop sell under the close, but either NT froze, or CL stopped trading for awhile. There's a gap between 06:05 and 06:10.

Trade #3
I was waiting for the pullback to the EMA and when the 06:20 bar touched it and came back, I put a stop sell under the close. I was filled on the next bar, got a couple of ticks, then was stopped out. -11 ticks.

Trade #4
I drew the trend line after that stop out and saw the 06:35 bar touch it nicely. Expecting the trend to continue, I went long on the close of the bar and was stopped out. -11 ticks.

Trade #5
Price came down on 2 strong bars and closed well below the EMA. I waited for the open of the next bar, and when it started back up to the EMA, I placed a stop sell under the 06:45 bar. The 06:50 bar came back down and filled my order, then stopped me out on the high of the next bar. -11 ticks.

I made about 15 trades during the next 30 minutes, just experimenting. Almost all of them were losers.

Around 07:25 it looked like the barbed wire was over, and I waited for the pullback to the EMA.

Trade #6
Went short on the 07:40 bar and moved my stop up after getting some ticks to the good. Price didn't follow through. +2 ticks.

Trade #7
The 08:35 and 08:40 bars made a failed attempt to go higher, and after the weak 08:45 bar I placed a stop sell under that and was filled on the next bar. The 09:00 bar stopped right at the LOD. I had my stop set on the top of the 09:00 bar and watched price come almost all the way back up, then retreat. At the close of the bar I moved what I thought was my stop to the close, but it wasn't a stop. It was some default strategy that got loaded when I place my trade. Before I knew it, I was short another contract and then the bottom fell out. Total accident. I should have only gotten 26 ticks, but ended up riding it all the way down. If only life was really like that!

Still need to work on some things.

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  #26 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: CL, ES
 
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Posts: 309 since Sep 2010
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I don't think I played very well today. My timing seemed to be off, plus after my first 3 trades, I noticed that the trade prices didn't match up with the chart. Mirus tech support got me on the right track, but I think I was a little rattled by it. This was my first contract rollover with NT, and there was a setting that was wrong.

Trade #1
I was just looking for a quick 15 tick scalp here. In hindsight, this was too close to the EMA. +1 tick.

After trade #1, price failed to go below the rising EMA. The trend was up and I was looking to join it.

Trade #2
The 05:50 bar bounced off the previous pivot high, but the next bar closed above it. The 06:05 bar pushed higher still, then retraced (too much maybe?). I waited for the downward momentum to carry price below the 06:05 close, then put a stop order in 2 ticks above the close. The 06:10 bar then came back and filled me before stopping me out. -11 ticks.

The trend was still up, but what I see now that I wished I saw then was the overlapping of the bars. This was barbed wire and I shouldn't have been trading. However...

Trade #3
I viewed the EMA as still holding up the line, and the previous bars being part of a pullback to the EMA. This trade went exactly like the last trade. I waited for some room to place a long stop order, except this time I place the order at the high of the 06:30 bar instead of giving it some room. The 06:35 bar came back to exactly my stop, filled and killed me. The only positive is I tightened up my stop. -9 ticks.

Down 19 ticks. At this point I switched to sim.

Trade #4
Still looking to get back in the trend. The 07:00 and 07:05 bars were part of the pullback, and I put a stop order in at 1 tick above the higher of the recent swing highs. Got filled on the 07:10 bar, got about 10 ticks and moved my stop to BE +1 where I was taken out. +1 tick.

When the 07:40 bar topped out at the previous high, I drew the trend line.

Trade #5
The 07:45 bar stopped exactly at 83.20 where the previous 2 candles stopped, then started to head down. I looked nice and snug in that triangle and before waiting for that bar to close, I put a stop order in 5 ticks above the high at 83.25 and the bar turned around, and hit my stop order. It was the high of the bar, then dropped back and stopped me out. -9 ticks.

I really played this triangle wrong. I'm not upset about being stopped out of Trade #5 although I did place the order too soon, but the next trade was pure revenge.

Trade #6
No real excuse for this trade. After 07:45 bar failed to break out, I put a sell stop 1 tick under its low. The 07:50 bar dropped out of the triangle long enough to fill me at the bar low. The next bar was the upside breakout I was initially expecting from a triangle on a trending day. -9 ticks.

After the perfect down leg off the HOD, and getting 3 bars failing to push higher, I was looking for the short. The 08:35 bar made a lower low. Entered a stop 3 ticks below the low. The next bar filled me, then the trend resumed.

Trade #8
The trend was still up, and with a nice bounce off the EMA, AND a push past that 3 bar pivot at 83.29, I was looking for the long entry. The 08:50 closed above that 3 bar top, and I entered long on the next bar at 83.36. +15 ticks.

What I think I did right:
  • Over all showed a little patience. Didn't jump it at bar closes.
  • Mostly traded with-trend.

What I think I did wrong:
  1. Trade #1 - trying to counter trend trade too close to the EMA
  2. Trade #2 - The wick was longer than the body. Perhaps too much downward momentum for a long trade.
  3. Trade #5 - should have been expecting a phone break out. Too anxious to get in early.
  4. Trade # 6. Just stupid.
  5. Trade # 7 - See Trade #1

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  #27 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: CL, ES
 
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Posts: 309 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 203 given, 422 received

Forgot the chart.

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  #28 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: CL, ES
 
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Posts: 309 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 203 given, 422 received

At my age, forgetting what happened yesterday is the norm. Today, however, I remembered getting whipsawed out of trades yesterday and was a bit fearful going into this morning. The first few premarket trades had lots of overlap, so I was going to wait for cleaner bars. Suppose I still haven't taken the statistical nature of trading to heart yet.

After the double bottom at 04:45 and 04:55, price tested the low 1 more time at 05:20 before moving up and sideways. The bars between 05:30 and 05:45 had no clear top or bottom and lots of overlap. The big bear bar at 05:50 caught me by surprise, and while I was waiting for that retracement back to the EMA, the bottom fell out.

Price dropped over 100 ticks without me. After reassuring the people in the office next to me that the screaming and cussing was now under control, I took a deep breath and focused on future trades.

Trade #1
Long after the big bar at 06:40. Got out BE+1 without enough time to take that short signal. +1 tick.

There was a two bar reversal at 06:55 - 07:00 that I didn't take. With an 11 tick stop, it would have stopped me out. Price did follow through and continue to rise.

Trade #2
After a poke above the EMA and that huge sell off, price was looking like it wanted to go up for awhile. Went long on the 07:70 bar after it dipped below the previous bar's close. Price came up, filled me, and continued up for a few ticks. I thought when that bar closed above the EMA I had a winner. Next bar closed below the EMA. +1 tick.

Trade #3
Went short after the failed breakout and a close below the EMA. Price reversed, got 1 ticks of slip. 0 ticks.

Trade #4
Not real proud of this trade because I did see that nasty shooting star forming, but I remember Brooks saying something about when a failed failure fails, it's usually a good trade. Went long after a substantial retrace of that bar at 81.94. +1 tick.

Got a lot of sideways price action, then 2 drops, ending below the EMA. Placed a stop sell below the low of the bar that closed under the EMA, waiting for more downward momentum to carry me down. Got filled on the way down, but price reversed and stopped me out. +1 tick.

I was feeling a little burned out, so I left to run some errands. Missed another 100 tick move. Swam with the sharks today. Didn't get bit, but didn't get dinner, either.

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  #29 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: ATC/TT, AMP/Zen-Fire, AMP/CQG
Trading: TF
 
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Posts: 2,547 since Jun 2010
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Hi,

Have you ever done a study on what your BE+1's are costing you?

Just curious, how often does moving your BE affect a profitable trade, or are you almost always saving your -11 tk stop from being hit?

I know for me, I get stopped out so often on great moves only to see it net some real profit. Usually my stop (5 ticks) would be just fine.

I am also curious if you have played with different levels or how you came up with 11 ticks? Is that 1%, 2% of your account etc. or a feasible distance as CL moves so much.

Thanks in advance.

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  #30 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: CL, ES
 
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Posts: 309 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 203 given, 422 received



bluemele View Post
Hi,

Have you ever done a study on what your BE+1's are costing you?

Just curious, how often does moving your BE affect a profitable trade, or are you almost always saving your -11 tk stop from being hit?

I know for me, I get stopped out so often on great moves only to see it net some real profit. Usually my stop (5 ticks) would be just fine.

I am also curious if you have played with different levels or how you came up with 11 ticks? Is that 1%, 2% of your account etc. or a feasible distance as CL moves so much.

Thanks in advance.

You must have been reading my mind. I'm reassessing the 11 tick stop thing. I just picked that number because it's about .5% of my account, and I'm willing to get stopped out 3 times in a day before I call it quits.

There have definitely been trades that stopped me out before going on to run. Perhaps with such a small account, I'll need to expose myself to more risk initially. The 2 bar reversal I mentioned is a great example. Had I taken that trade, I would have been stopped out, but it went on to run 30 ticks.

The BE+1 comes mainly from my auto trail. I move to BE+1 when I get 8 ticks in my favor. I suppose what I'm looking for is to get swept away in the momentum on a nicely timed trade, and at least for now, I'm willing to have more scratches than I need.

BTW, I did get your email and will respond.

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