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First sim trade in CL was a winner. Decided to go live and lost the next 3 trades, 27 ticks total. Only the last trade was questionable, as I think the setups on the first 2 were fine.
While I was focusing on the tick-by-tick action of CL, I missed some softballs in 6E. Time to eat some humble pie admit I need more skill and a bigger account to trade CL, especially these days. Maybe until after we invade all the oil producing countries and things stabilize.
I'm going to spend the weekend reviewing my journal and past trades, and fine tuning my trading plan. I remember reading someplace that your plan should be precise enough to program a computer with the steps. Mine has too much discretion for a beginning trader.
The Euro was range bound and whippy all morning and I just watched it for 3 hours.
6E Trade #1
Finally started to make some HL's while approaching the top of the trading range. The 08:54 bar formed a triple bottom green candle and I entered a limit order on the close. Missed it, but kept the order in with a stop under the triple bottom. Usually I cancel an order if it isn't filled on the next bar, but this was such a tight stop I decided to keep it. Got filled on the 09:00 bar retrace. +15 ticks.
TF Trade #1
The pullback entry was too pretty not to take - bull candle that just stops at the EMA. Gave myself 8 ticks to the tail and put in a limit order for 792.8 and was filled on the retrace. The 10.33 candle looked like it was forming a pin bar short, so I moved my stop up as much as I could to scratch out of the trade. -6 ticks.
The biggest issue I found after reviewing my journal and trades over the weekend was an improper stop. I've been decent at identifying the trend and picking my entry, however, most times my stop isn't under that last pivot.
I'm going to focus on refining my rules on when/why to get out of a trade and try to avoid all these BE trades that later move in my favor.
Trade #1
Little worried about taking a pre-market trade since the volume was so light, but price was moving. Went in on a retrace of a HL pivot. When price didn't make a new HOD, moved my stop up. +10 ticks
Trade #2
Looking for a leg up retest of the HOD. Entered on retrace of pivot. Got filled, then up 9 ticks before another retrace stopped me out. Entry bar closed up 10 ticks - lots of volatility. +1 tick.
Talked myself out of some winning trades. Seemed like I was looking for reasons not to trade.
Only 1 trade today. Trade #1
After the big morning drop, price traded in a range, then made a push up past the EMA. The leg up failed, but previous support held. Price made a double bottom at 1.4162 then proceeded up strongly, back into a resistance area. It bounced off of resistance to the EMA. The 09:18 bar was a strong green bar. Went long on the close with a stop under the previous bar's swing low. I didn't like the lack of follow strength. Tightened my stop to under the double bottom (triple bottom after the next bar) and was stopped out. -6 ticks.
I think I've isolated my fear of pulling the trigger as being the fear of the unknown. The past several days when I haven't traded I've been mulling this over. Today I was determined to trade and was prepared to accept the consequences, but what I found was an excuse not to trade for each setup.
The 05:03 bar - right at market open. Shouldn't go short.
The 05:27 bar - the last pivot was a HL. Shouldn't go short.
The 05:51 bar - Going to wait for a closer pullback to the EMA. Shouldn't put on a sell stop.
The 06:30 bar - Right at the market open, plus a double bottom was made. Shouldn't go short.
And so on. Each of those trades would have either been a winner or scratch. My hand was on the mouse, but my head was up my ass.
This would really be funny if it weren't happening to me.
