Got handed a lesson in stop survival. CL still on steroids. I played on sim at first. My first trade moved to BE+1 and I got 3 ticks of slip on the close! My next 2 sim trades netted me 50 ticks, so I decided to lock and load and play for real.
CL Trade #1
After a massive red candle at 06:05, there was a 50% retrace. Timed a perfect entry off the 1 min chart with my 8 tick stop. Got filled, got a retrace of 9 ticks, then a drop of almost 70 ticks. The signal bar was only 12 ticks high. I needed a 14 tick stop on this to have done it right. -8 ticks.
CL Trade #2
Undaunted, I entered short again off the low of a small, gravestone doji. There was a tiny bit of revenge associated with this trade. This would have been a stop out even with a proper stop size. Got 1 tick of slip for my troubles. -9 ticks.
Traded CL 7 more times in sim for a net of -7 ticks. Don't know how realistic the fills were.
I had been focusing so hard on CL I missed a trade in the Euro for a BE.
6E Trade #1
After pushing higher, 6E dropped below the EMA and made a LL. There was a violent push up past the EMA, but the next bar failed to make any headway. The 08:06 bar failed and I entered short under that bar. Trailed my stop down after each bar's close. +8 ticks.
Camtasia is broken - couldn't even start the recording. I'll play with it later if I have time.
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One mistake in mechanics and one mistake in judgement contributed to my loss today.
CL was still very jittery, so I played on sim for the morning. I was careful to make sure my stop was beyond the signal bar in most cases. Did pretty good, so I decided to play with real money.
CL Trade #1
This was a rule violation by not letting a bar close before I put a trade on. CL made a nice drop through the EMA after failing to make a HH. On my signal bar, I watched the 07:35 bar make a double top with the previous bar, then start down. It made a bottom at 96.94 then moved up slightly and sat there. There was about 3 seconds left on the bar when I put my order in. Price dropped violently, filled my order then pushed higher for a full stop. Very impressive. -12 ticks.
CL Trade #2
The bar that stopped me out didn't break the EMA, and the next bar was a small red inside bar. Went short below that bar, but was stopped out. -10 ticks.
The Euro had been in an uptrend, and the first short pullback entry was right at that 60 minute ascending trend line. I pasted on the trade, but it was a winner.
6E Trade #1
Price didn't make it above the EMA after the previous leg down, and was now below the 60 min trend. Got in on a pullback off an inside doji. Only had 5 MFE so I kept my stop in place. -8 ticks.
I'm OK with my 6E trade, but it wasn't too smart to play in the oil patch today.
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CL Trade #1
CL was finding support at 97.50 but was showing weakness. Put sell stop at 97.49 and got 2 ticks of slip on the entry. Was looking for at least 97.20 but it found support at 97.26. Moved my stop to BE+10 to get something from the trade, but got 1 tick of slip. +9 ticks.
The 60 Min chart on the Euro was had some overlapping bars, but the trend was up.
6E Trade #1
Got a couple of big green bars, then a slight pullback. Entered above the doji. No real follow through. +1 tick.
6E Trade 32
Didn't like the look of the 60 min chart - lots of overlapping bars. However, this setup was correct. After a leg down, got a 3 bars up and just touched the EMA. Stuck with the trade for 2 more bars, but didn't get the follow through I was looking for. The 08:45 and 08:48 bars formed a double top, so I thought it would be safe to move my stop to 1 tick above that. Got stopped out on the next bar. -5 ticks.
Oil was in an uptrend that looked tired. The 07:45 leg up failed to make a HH, then there were some red candles that pushed it under the EMA. The 08:15 bar closed at the EMA. The 1 min chart had been skimming along under the EMA. Entered short and was looking for a test of the 98.09 pivot low, but didn't get it. +2 ticks.
Amazingly frustrating day. Looking back at CL, a baby could have traded that. Baby yes, moron no.
6E Trade #1
The 60 min chart was up big, but this was a valid setup. What I failed to remember at the time is a failed pullback usually means take the opposite trade, especially when your failed pullback was counter-trend and the opposite was with-trend on the higher time frame. -5 ticks.
6E Trade #2
Tried to get back in the trend. Only had 12 MFE before stop out. +1 tick.
I was writing in my journal and totally missed the next pullback signal. Would have been another BE+1, but still. Need to focus more.
6E Trade #3
Price looked tired and I entered short under a doji that just pierced the EMA. I was expecting price to fall after breaking 1.3868 support, but not very much. That was my signal to go to BE+1 but didn't. Wanted to hold out for more. When price came back up to entry, it fluctuated +/- a tick around entry. Moved to BE-2 to get out. -2 ticks.
CL Trade #1
Nice pullback entry off the 1 min chart, but got shaken out. +1 tick.
CL Trade #2
Really a dumb trade. Price fell to 99.61 support, then made a second attempt. I missed the trade and was feeling frustrated. Clearly that second bounce off of support means no short trades, but this was an anger trade. -8 ticks.
Didn't feel like chopping up the video, so no new vids.
What's really frustrating about this is after reviewing the recording, I was aware of some great trades but didn't take them. Like the trapped traders on the 08:05 bar. In sim, I put a long position on at 100.40 and got a great trade. Or several of the other trades I took in sim that worked out too.
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