Debated on posting an entry today. For most of the day, I was a like a dear in the headlights. There were several trades I tried to put on, but the entry was so conservative none of them were filled. There were several very nice entries, especially in 6E that I simply didn't take. I seemed to be looking for reasons not to trade.
The first pullback entry in 6E had huge orders sitting on the offer, so I convinced myself that there would be too much resistance for a long. It wasn't.
The second opportunity 6E made a triple top/triple bottom right near the EMA with small bars. This was obviously a bull flag, but I saw it as weakening demand and didn't take it.
The 3rd opportunity 6E formed a small, inside bar after 3 legs up, and 08:33 3min candle showed some selling pressure. I hesitated on this, then put the order in but too late. Price shot up. Another leg up.
There were 2 others (one would have been a stop out).
I'm just mad now.
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Traded brains for guts today. Was determined to trade the signals. A lesson learned is to trade ALL the signals and not cherry pick. After 2 losers in 6E, I passed on a winning trade. Then traded another loser.
6E Trade #1
Saw this pullback just after booting up. Hadn't done any pre-game stuff, but it looked like a valid signal. After entering the trade, I looked at the 60 min chart and this was buying right at the top of a range. -6 ticks.
Waited a couple of hours for all the news to die down.
6E Trade #2
The peaks in 6E were getting weaker, then it dropped below the EMA and made a LL by 1 tick. Figured this was the first leg of a down move, but it wasn't. -6 ticks.
The next pullback opportunity had a doji close over the EMA followed by a red candle closing below. I chose not to take this winner.
6E Trade #3
Thought there might be one more leg up on this. There wasn't. -8 ticks.
CL almost bored me to tears this morning. It was doing a slow, painful climb with nothing but overlapping bars. The bars finally started to show some direction and character around 07:50. I had been watching that 85.29 pivot high for a break out, and it finally came. However the move was short lived. For the next 2 hours CL marched painfully up.
CL Trade #1
The first breakout bar occurred at 09:53. I didn't like the small doji that followed, and I didn't really know what to make of the next bar. Double bottom with the doji and 5 ticks higher. I was waiting for a pullback that didn't come. Eventually I entered the run on the 4th pullback. Got 19 MFE and moved my stop to BE+2 because I was worried about slippage. Stopped out BE+2.
The need for acting decisively on these surges made itself evident as I watched price move without me while I pondered the setup. After reviewing the recording of this move, it's obvious I'm spending too much time thinking and not enough time reacting.
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Tiger45, I'm glad you posted, even on a bad day. That is exactly what you need to do. It doesn't do you any good if you don't post and talk about the trades, and learn from it.
Regarding your screen shot and the markup --- let me ask a few questions:
1) If you look at a bigger picture chart, where you could see more 'to the left', the area where you saw a bunch of sell orders on the DOM may have been a previous consolidation area or a previous swing area.
2) Is it in your plan to analyze the DOM in such a way like you did for the missed long entry? Was it your plan to take this long entry?
3) Step back and forget the DOM and chart patterns. Rewind your chart so that the right edge is the 'long entry' you missed. What does it look like? What signals has the market given you that it is about to head higher?
4) Even if you missed this first entry, why did you miss the second one? It seems you were married to the idea of some sort of retracement or short setup, when the chart in front of you was saying bullish.
Just my thoughts. Don't beat yourself up over missed trades. If your plan calls for taking the trades then try to determine exactly why you didn't, and use the exact same information you had available at the time of entry (or missed entry) -- don't use a chart that shows prints after the fact. You need to learn to evaluate with the true data available at the time of making a decision.
Good job, keep up the hard work, and it will pay off.
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The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
The market had been trending down, then made a pivot low on1.3496 at 04:36 PST before making another run at that EMA. The place where I saw the large sell orders corresponded roughly to the center of that pivot low candle.
No, it's not. I've been reading some books that talked about reading the tape, so I was paying more attention than usual to the DOM. I've since learned that futures don't really have a tape like stocks do, and it's not worthwhile to put too much into what's on the DOM.
The strongest signal is perhaps the double bottom the 08:15 candle made with the first bull candle of that leg up. It did that on relatively high volume, meaning the bears couldn't cause a sell off. The next 2 candles made a triple top with that failed bear candle - interestingly, stopping to the tick of the last time price poked above the EMA before crashing down. Those bars also formed an internal double bottom - basically a small range - right at the point price crashed previously. Since price had been trending up and hadn't even touched the EMA for almost an hour, it was reasonable to assume the trend would continue.
I stood on the sidelines under the 'it can't go any higher' theory. Price made 4 strong legs up and was now approaching the pre-market congestion area.
Thanks for the input and good advice. It's always helpful to get more eyes on the issues. I hadn't noticed until now that price was forming that triple top at a previous swing high. A pretty clear sign a break out was possible.
With the holiday today and the craziness in the CL market, today is a good day to go back through my Passed Trades log and do exactly that - scroll to the edge and see why I didn't take the trades.
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Looking to get in on the run up. Watching for an entry on the 1 min chart. Was waiting for the bars to consolidate. When long on the second push and was expecting price to break the 07:23 pivot high. When it did on the 07:27 bar but failed to follow through, that was my signal to exit at BE but didn't. Held the trade. -8 ticks.
Had to leave the office. Got back at 09:30 and saw price weakening.
Price closed below the EMA after skimming along for a 6 bars. The next bar failed to resume the uptrend or even break the EMA. Started trailing a stop under that bar. The 09:40 bar was a small inside doji. Don't usually like taking trades of doji's, but price really looked weak. Got filled on the next bar. Trailed my stop from the 1 min chart and stopped out +15 ticks.
Had to make some ugly phone calls and emails, so I minimized the screens to concentrate. When I came back, I saw I missed a textbook pullback entry that dropped for over 140 ticks!! Not that I would have captured most of that, but it was exciting to see an entry I would have (or at least should have) taken work so well.
Finished slightly positive. Decent ending to a crappy day.
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CL lost its mind today. The T&S and DOM were going crazy. Played on paper for awhile and watched. Nearly every trade I would have taken would have been a full stop or BE. The chart was well behaved, but a much bigger stop was required to trade my setups.
Things quieted down a little. I watched 2 nice trades that were survivable. Reached down the front of my pants to make sure they were still there, then...
CL Trade #1
There was a massive sell off that started to weaken. The 1 min chart gave a textbook pullback entry at 94.90. Was targeting the double bottom at 94.53/94.54 but didn't trust it. Moved to BE+10 after 17 MFE at the end of the entry bar. +10 ticks.
The Euro traded in a narrow, whippy range most of the day. Around 08:00 it looked tired.
6E Trade #1
Took the first clean entry with a survivable stop. Took 6 ticks of heat and waited through 2 more bars before price dropped. +16 ticks.
Was patient and didn't get anxious when I saw good trades pass me by.
Still unwilling to accept a binary outcome (target or full stop).
Not prepared on 6E trade. Took a couple of seconds to find my DOM and I could have missed the trade.
BTW, if anyone is interested, I've posted a couple of videos (two from today and an old one as a test)