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Tiger's Price Action Journal


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Tiger's Price Action Journal

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  #11 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Tiger45 View Post
Down 21 ticks on 4 trades today. It's frustrating when you lose money on a strongly trending day.

...

I gave back all of my last two day's earnings.

Good job for posting even after a bad day. What you need to honestly ask yourself is why this happened. It could be that your method is not designed to work well during a strong trending day. If that is the case, and you've executed the method well, and you've got a lot of data showing the method works over a large sample size (forward testing), then don't worry about it. Not every day is a winning day.

However, your last statement of "gave back all of my last two days earnings" is a much bigger cause for concern. This indicates a major problem with either the method or the execution of the method. You'll need to solve this. To solve it, you must first identify the problem. Then you must come up with a very specific finely tuned set of rules to help you not make the same problem again. Then you must measure yourself on following those rules on a daily basis.

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  #12 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
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Big Mike View Post
However, your last statement of "gave back all of my last two days earnings" is a much bigger cause for concern. This indicates a major problem with either the method or the execution of the method. You'll need to solve this. To solve it, you must first identify the problem. Then you must come up with a very specific finely tuned set of rules to help you not make the same problem again. Then you must measure yourself on following those rules on a daily basis.

Mike

Still working on my rules. Every day I go over the chart bar by bar to see what I missed and collect stats.

Right now my forehead is still sore from pounding it on my desk. The 06:15 bar is a big surge down followed by an inside bar in the opposite direction, followed by another small bar in the direction of the surge bar. I take this trade whenever is see it - except today I didn't see it.

One of the problems I've identified with my trading is to view the action bar by bar and try not to get into the mindset of waiting for my expectations to unfold. It's OK to see patterns develop and prepare to act after the signal is confirmed, but it's NOT OK to be blind to other possibilities while watching. I coulda shoulda woulda been short this morning at 83.88 had I been paying attention.

Try to be the chart ... ooooohhhhmmmmm ....

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  #13 (permalink)
 vegasfoster 
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Seems like you're getting hammered on your counter trades. Granted, I've only been trading CL since April and I am not an expert yet, but on a strong move, I don't consider them until at least the third push and then I like a strong reversal bar indicator. Aggressive entry for me would be at the close of the bar and a conservative entry would be at the break below the higher low after a lower high for a short or vice versa for long. I am more aggressive on a weak move where it fails to form a higher high/lower low or it is an extremely weak higher high/lower low. The strength or weakness of the move governs how quickly I am to dump it if I am wrong.

Trading from 6-9 pst, my monday armchair quarterbacking would only take two counter trades on a 5-minute chart yesterday and today. Both of which would have been winners, of course.

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  #14 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
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vegasfoster View Post
Seems like you're getting hammered on your counter trades.

Trading from 6-9 pst, my monday armchair quarterbacking would only take two counter trades on a 5-minute chart yesterday and today. Both of which would have been winners, of course.

Thanks Vegas. Believe it or not, only my first (and ill attempted retry of my first) trades were counter trend. I thought that after a huge drop that down/up pair of candles would be a reversal.

My 3rd trade was an attempt to rejoin the trend. I only have an 11 tick stop, so I was taken out on that trade 2 bars before the bottom fell out. A little more patience on my part and a better fill would have kept me alive.

My 4th trade was another attempt at rejoining the down trend, but it was too late in the move. I got out BE +1.

Yesterday I did get killed on counter trend trades, but made up for it after the trend reversed and I got with the program. It only took CL 150 ticks to change trend!

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  #15 (permalink)
slow to learn
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Tiger45 View Post
Greetings everyone,

I'd like briefly introduce myself and then get down to business. First, a little history:

I've been 'hobbying' in trading for several years, having gone from swing trading momentum stocks, to day trading momentum stocks, to trading options, and finally, around last summer, I started trading futures. The end of 2009 wasn't the best of times as I kept bouncing from instrument to instrument and indicator to indicator. Needless to say, I lost money, but nothing really bad.

At the beginning of 2010 I came to realize that I should just focus on a single market and try to learn that. I played around with YM, TF, GC, ZS, and CL. For some reason, CL really appeals to me, and I've been focusing on that instrument exclusively since April. Of course, I lost money January - April. During the first quarter of 2010, I experimented with various indicators and time frames, trading 1 minute and tick charts. I was afraid to trade any higher time frame because I didn't want the risk exposure. Around May, things finally started to click, and for the next several months I was consistently profitable and made back all my losses from the year, plus some.

Around July, things slowed down considerably, and I found myself taking fewer and fewer trades. My indicator that had served me so well for the preceding several months was now giving me many false signals, but more disturbingly, NOT giving me signals when I could clearly see the market moving.

So at the end of August, while I still had a modest profit on the year, I decided to rip up my trading plan and start over. I've been studying charts, reading books, and doing lots of simulated trading. I still haven't been able to get my arms around this, and have yet to write down a single rule.

Since I'm still using a 20 period moving average and volume, I supposed I'm not purely price action yet. My main setup is trading pullbacks to the 20 ema.

Here's what I did today. I'm trading 1 contract on the 5 minute chart.

Trade #1:
Oil had been coming down all night and bottomed around 02:00 before beginning a climb up. At 04:50 it made its 3rd failed push to go higher and I thought about going short. However, I'm loathe to short an uptrend, no matter how brief, so I waited for confirmation. The 05:15 down bar looked good, and I put a stop order 1 tick below and entered short at 81.33 on the next bar. Still being nervous about shorting this uptrend, I moved my stop to BE +1 after 5 ticks to the good and was taken out BE +1.

Trade #2
After oil failed to drop, I expected it to bounce of the ema. The 05:35 bar was a strong up bar and I went long at the open of the next bar for +25 ticks.

The pullback at 05:55 was the only pullback for almost an hour and I just watched it go up. Still not good enough of a trader to get into a leg like that, so I was going to wait for a pullback.

Trade #3
The big drop at 06:55 was more than I was expecting. I thought that bar had a lot of downward momentum, and since it closed near its extreme, I went short on the open of the next bar at 81.89. This is a great example of violating a rule, since there was news coming out at 07:00 and I totally forgot about it. Stopped out with 2 ticks of slip. -13 ticks.

Trade #4
I know I'm not supposed to get angry, but after I got stopped out, oil dropped 25 ticks. I saw the 07:10 bar as a failed attempt to return to the uptrend, so I went short on the 07:15 bar at 81.79 and was stopped out on the next bar. -11 ticks.

Trade #5
The 07:20 strong up bar convinced me that the trend was returning, and when the 07:25 bar retraced to the ema, I went long at the close and was stopped out on the next bar. -11 ticks.

Trade #6
It was obvious to me that I was over trading and getting a little emotional, so I sat back for awhile to watch and see what the market was going to do. After whipsawing around the ema for 3 bars, the 08:15 formed a doji right at the top of the 3 previous bars and failed to close below the ema. I went long on the next bar, but it retraced on me on the 08:25 bar and I got out BE +1.

Six trades was enough, so I called it a day. Down 8 ticks on 6 trades.

Tomorrow is another day.

Tiger, hi im slow to learn I trade crude oil as well . I use price action and supply and demand. Im a scalper and use range bars to help me find the supply and demand areas.

You know tiger that out of all instruments to trade crude is one of the hardest because the best of the best market makers (smart money) trade crude. You are trading agianst the best institutional traders in the world.

So if you are profitable trading crude you rock! Remember crude oil runs the world!

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  #16 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
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slow to learn View Post
Tiger, hi im slow to learn I trade crude oil as well . I use price action and supply and demand. Im a scalper and use range bars to help me find the supply and demand areas.

You know tiger that out of all instruments to trade crude is one of the hardest because the best of the best market makers (smart money) trade crude. You are trading agianst the best institutional traders in the world.

So if you are profitable trading crude you rock! Remember crude oil runs the world!

Thanks STL! Any pionters on trading price action would be appreciated.

I thought ES was the hardest to trade - at least that's what I've heard.

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  #17 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
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Missed the major moves today. Clearly this is an area that needs work. However, I did make 19 ticks on 3 trades, so it wasn't all bad.

Lots of news today, so I was on guard. Still researching a way to play that game.

The 05:30 news caused CL to do its typical spaz dance. Being new to NT, I'm wondering if I can use an ATM strategy to skim some ticks off of those crazy gyrations.

Two bars after the news, CL starts a steady, steep dive for the low of the day. The high volume hammer at 06:00 was the bottom, but my preference is to go with green hammers as bottom signals. I drew the trend line and was looking for some reversal pattern to trade, but instead just watched it go up. Drew another trend line.

At the top of that run, CL hit 81.94 a few times, but because there wasn't a decisive trend line break, I didn't short it. After 2 bars down, it resumed its move up.

The 07:20 bar was a nice thrust out of the trend, forming a lower high with the previous bar. I place an order to go short at 82.12 - about midway back up the surge bar. Canceled the order when I wasn't filled on the next bar. When oil bounced off the EMA at 07:30, then pulled away at 07:35, I placed an order to go long at 81.90, just below the close of the 07:35 bar. Unfortunately, there was no retracement and oil moved up another 100 ticks!

Trade #1
I thought the 08:05 and 08:10 bars were showing some weakness forming lower highs. The 08:15 bar down signaled to me a move down, and I went short at 82.84 on the next bar. Price had one last gasp and I got taken out +3 ticks.

Trade #2
I watched the failed down move and subsequent bounce off the EMA and went long at 82.66 on the 09:05 bar. Got out +1 tick.

Trade #3
The failed long and the 3 attempts to go past 82.78 made me think the market was now going lower. The 09:15 bar had a lower high, and I wanted to catch the 4th attempt at breaking 82.78 so I placed a stop sell at 82.74 and was filled on the 09:20 bar. Thought I had a tiger by the tail, but only got +15 ticks.

I think my biggest need for improvement is to trade trends, which you'd think would be the easiest thing to do. Another area for improvement is learning where to place the stop orders. Since I'm using an 11 tick stop, I'm cautious about retraces on these 20 tick candles. Placing orders at bar opens at 07:25 and 07:40 would have given me a couple more winners. Back to the classroom.

Have a nice weekend everyone.

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  #18 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
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Took the day off today. Back tomorrow.

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  #19 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Tiger45 View Post
Took the day off today. Back tomorrow.

Wise decision

Mike

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  #20 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
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Up 11 ticks on 3 trades. Managed to avoid most of the whip and come out in 1 piece.

I saw the 70 tick premarket rise when I booted up this morning, so I was predisposed for long, with-trend trades. The consolidation after that big rise almost got me. I was waiting for a breakout long, but the 05:30 bar was a surprise to me, so I just watched. There was a bounce off the EMA, then 4 bars of trend back up. The slope was steep, so had there been a decisive break from that trend, I would have tried to go short.

Trade #1
Price bounced off the EMA 3 times. On the first bull candle, I put in an order long at 82.04 and was filled on the retrace of the next bar. I didn't like the way price was reacting (should have gone higher faster), so I moved my stop up to BE-2 and was taken out. I had the chance to get out BE+1, but spent too much time thinking about it. -2 ticks.

The next several bars were big bear bars. The 06:50 and 06:55 bars had the same low, so I was waiting for a reversal candle.

Trade #2
After the bull 07:00 bar, I entered an order long at 81.37, just a few ticks below the close. I'm still trying to figure out a good entry for these things. I was filled on the retrace of the next bar. This is another good example of how trading 2 contracts would be better (but I'm not there yet). Got out +12 ticks, then price moved up another 40 ticks! +12 ticks.

I watched price bounce off the EMA and wanted to go short, but it was moving too fast. Put an order in short at 81.62 after the 07:25 bar closed, but wasn't filled.

The 07:35 and 07:40 bars formed a double bottom, but I don't like it when the bear candle's tail is longer than the bull candle, so I passed on it. Got lucky, because I probably would have been stopped out on the next bar.

Price started getting whippy around the EMA, so I just watched.

Trade #3
After the big surge up through the EMA by the 08:10 bar, I was looking for another opportunity to go long. The next bar was a small, bear bar that did form a HH and HL, so figuring the trend was resuming, I went long 81.80 on the close of that bar and was filled on the 08:20 bar. After 8 ticks I moved my stop to BE+1 and was taken out on the next bar. +1 ticks.

Decided to call it quits for the day.

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