Not much to report. The only valid setup for me in CL today occurred at 04:50. I put the trade on and wasn't filled on the next bar. Volume was so light I took the trade off. It would have been a BE+1 trade.
1 trade on 6E near the low of the early morning. A little nervous about selling near the low, but it was a valid setup. Had 11 MFE and out BE+1.
I played with a couple of different video recorders for most of the morning and really liked it. I found that it made me think about things when I said them aloud. When I played it back it almost sounded like I knew what I was talking about!! Recorded 15 minutes and generated a 200 MB file which compressed down to a 20 MB SWF file. I need to think about the best way to use this tool. Don't think I can let it run for 5 hours. Maybe stop recording while the market isn't doing anything. I like the BSR program as recommended by Slipknot511 because of the editing capabilities. I haven't tried the one Mike recommended yet, but it cost over 3 times more than BSR and from the web sites I can't see too much difference in them.
Maybe I can edit the recordings around my trades and supplement my journal here. Need to research whether or not I can post that file type here.
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You can post .mp4's directly, which is the best output type for video.
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
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Some technical snafu's today and a repeated mistake from a prior day. I recorded over a gig of video of my trading today, only to discover that when I downloaded a more recent version of BSR, it had reset all my check boxes to defaults and I didn't record any sound. Oh well. It was still valuable talking out loud. I spent some time trying to figure out how to record 2 monitors, but haven't been successful in that yet.
Trade entry was perfect, and I was waiting for a test of the 92.57 pivot low, which I got. Moved my stop to BE+1 where I was taken out on a retrace. Only would have had 3 ticks of heat. I think watching a few more 80+ tick moves slip away from me because of <fill in the blank> may help me see the light of leaving my stop alone. +1 tick.
I didn't really see another entry for me as price dropped. Price bounced off of 91.46 which was yesterday's low. I was expecting a retrace to the 92.19 area which was just under a 50% retrace from the high, but I didn't want to do any counter trend trading so I just watched.
Then I switched to the 3 min chart and my heart sank as I saw the beautiful waves CL made on the way down. There were 2 additional nice opportunities that I missed.
CL made a big move up to the 92.19 resistance, then fell back and regrouped for another push. After pushing up past resistance, it made another less convincing leg up at 08:50, then had a big red candle down past previous resistance (now broken support) and closed under the EMA on high volume. The next candle was a small inside bar.
Here's where I over-thunk the situation.
I viewed the 08:55 candle as a trend line break that also broke support. I was waiting for a leg down, and switched to the 3 minute chart and started trailing my stops (see inset). I was filled at 92.14 and stopped out. -10 ticks.
Switched to sim and took another trade, but left my stop in place. Had 6 MFE before being stopped out.
Overall I was reasonably happy with the day. I was patient and took the trades. I didn't see any trades on 6E.
My plan for the remainder of the month is to do my best not to counter trend, and to take only 1 setup - all of them. Then I'll address trade management, which I clearly suck at.
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Not as focussed as I should have been today, but took some nice trades and I'm happy with all of them, even though today was a negative day. Because of my lack of focus, I did miss some trades.
After reviewing past trades, I've found that I hardly ever take more than 8 ticks of heat, so today's goal was to put on the trade, hold the trade until the close of the entry bar, then trail the stop down. I did succeed in that today.
Trade #1 6E
I saw the setup for this as soon as I got in, quickly checked for news then put on the trade. After the entry bar closed, I moved my stop down to 1 tick above and stopped out on the next bar. My original stop was 8 ticks and I tightened it to 5. I would have only taken 7 ticks of heat had I left my stop alone. -5 ticks.
I thought about getting back in to that trade after getting stopped out, but would have liked to see a green bar in there somewhere. There were no other pullbacks until the very end.
The move from 08:00 - 08:15 broke the downtrend line and the latest pivot low, telling me that a new uptrend was coming. I saw the pullback at 08:35, but didn't act on it because the trend was down and going long under the EMA (and that close to it) was hard for me. That would have been a nice trade.
The next pullback opportunity came and I passed on that one too, because it was adjacent to all those parallel bars, indicating to me an area of resistance.
Trade #2 6E
When 6E broke through that resistance area and began another pullback, I went long. I was determined to play this one right. I had an 8 tick stop and trailed my stop up where I was stopped out 3 bars later. I thought the trade might fall apart when the 09:35 bar failed to make it to the top of the trend line. +4 ticks.
I saw that triangle forming, but had to leave the office.
On the CL side, I had a sell order in at 05:10 but canceled it when the doji formed. I don't like taking signals from them.
I got distracted for about an hour after that and missed the signal at 05:40. In hindsight, I see others, but at the time I was looking for specific candle formations.
Trade #1 CL
After the small inside bar at 07:10 I placed a stop sell 1 tick below. I was filled on the lowest tick of the next bar, then stopped out. Unfortunately, I'm not yet nimble enough to see that I should have gotten back in. -8 ticks.
Overall not a bad day. Didn't counter trend trade or move my stop too soon. I'm trying to keep yesterday's lesson in mind.
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My pre-market analysis was spot on, but failed to capitalize on it. I was expecting CL to drop and 6E to rise. On CL, the 60 min chart was showing a very well formed pullback, but on the 5 min chart I didn't see a clear entry. I watched patiently as CL dropped 120 ticks. The one good thing to come out of that was I was able to collect more data on the break out (break down) of the 88.23 level. Only 6 ticks of heat on that.
After the big drop, CL moved sideways. After an hour or so and a test of the LOD, CL broke out of the range and exceeded the 88.23 pivot low, so I was looking for at least 2 legs up. I didn't take the 2nd leg because the pullback bar had too much downward momentum. I was expecting a down move, but it went up again. The 3rd leg up made a HH, but nothing great, so I was now expecting a down move.
The down move from the 3rd push up didn't make a LL and ended with a small hammer straddling the EMA. Went long on the 3rd pullback, acutely aware of the overall down trend and the potential resistance at 88.23 and trailed the stop. Out BE +1.
On the 6E side, I didn't take the first pullback at 05:15 because of the double top that had formed at 1.3572. The two previous bars poked through that level before falling back. That would have been a very nice entry.
The other nice entry that I didn't take was the IB at 06:40 that broke out of yesterday's high.
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Nice day of trading. Turned down some scalp profits to stick with my plan of trailing stops.
The one setup CL offered me today was a pullback entry long on the 09:40 bar, but I didn't take that because price had just bounced off of the overnight high of 86.99. In hindsight, I should have taken this trade for 2 reasons: Price formed a double bottom at 86.63, and this was 3 ticks higher than the 86.60 resistance-turned-support level.
On the 6E side, I didn't really like the looks of the 60 min chart. The trend was up, but the bars were all sideways doji's. The last 60 min bar was an outside bar and my short entry was at the bottom of that bar. The current 60 min bar formed a LL and LH.
Got a giant red bar at 05:10 and then a long-legged doji that closed near the bottom of the range. The 05:20 bar was a strong green candle, but the next bar was a small inside red candle. Didn't like the 60 min chart, but this looked like a good short. Entered sell stop 1 tick under and was taken out by the next outside bar. Moved my stop to 1 tick above the signal bar at entry, but got 1 tick slip. -7 ticks.
The bar that stopped me out rejected the EMA, and the next bar was a strong red candle. I waited for the next bar before entering a limit order to catch the retrace. Got a perfect fill and had 10 MFE. I was tempted to lock in the 7 ticks previously lost, but instead trailed my stop and was taken out on the next bar. +1 tick.
The range was pretty crappy and I mostly just watched. Switched to sim to play.
Sim Trade #3
Had 4 big whippy bars that closed at or above 1.3671. The last 2 bars formed LH's. My plan was to wait for the breakout below that level, then wait some more for the retrace that would probably come, and THEN be the 2nd mouse at the cheese. Price broke, then came back up. Put sell stop in at 1.3671 and was filled. Was tempted to scalp some monopoly money, but instead trailed my stop. +1 tick.
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