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I find this highly entertaining and interesting, and I hope you keep it up.
However, with no context other than the day's activity (are we above or below yesterday's range, for example), and not actually seeing it move, IMHO it's largely random. Real trading isn't looking at a static chart and making a guess. In the same vein, visually "backtesting" by looking at old bars and then guessing at the direction is a useless endeavor.
I used to be very interested in Wyckoff (his ideas are pretty foundational to my trading strategy), and hope that I can renew my interest just a little bit by following here, whether that means learning some new things or confirming why I don't use certain Wyckoffian principles, so, thanks for starting the thread!
Two legs measured move down forming a down trending channel (bearish, could be drawn after the 2-leg pullback on the first move down retracing ~50%). Price pulls back (shallow) to supply line (rising wedge=bearish) with no evidence of any buying. Expecting price to go down for a test of the low, possibly to demand line.
That's what makes a market, no harm in differing opinions! Too often opinions are unchallenged and I think it's important for us to, every now and then, have our beliefs challenged to test them out. That's one reason I'm here on this thread--to question and test some of my own.
Can I ask what time zone your charts are in? That way "high" or "low" volume can be put in context for the time of day, as the opening and closing few bars will almost always be the highest of the day. (the date is important too, as holiday and summer volumes are almost always lower). And as you know, as time regulates the opportunities of a market (since most of them close), volatility and range tend to be higher near the open and close as well. So, the time zone would be good to know.
Edit: actually, I see that your last chart doesn't show volume (but your first one did). For a Wyckoff quiz, shouldn't that be featured prominently?
The time on most charts is GMT and big part of the trades is during the London session. The histogram indicator at the bottom of the chart is a cumulative volume of buying and selling waves which was developed by David Weis.
I would vote for down, as it hit a major axis line at 15860 and showed almost no attempt to break through it, with a minorSOW/ease of downward movement on the last bar.
I have very little to add to the answers by @mwf2220, @58LesPaul and @Mich62. It is a classic breakdown retest trade: high volume breakdown with good ease of movement and low volume retest with volume diminishing as price goes up.
