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I've seen people make terrible accidents with their car so cars are not very useful? It's how one uses the model. I agree though to be open minded and not apply models too strictly.
I can see no accumulation nor distribution pattern. We've made a ~100 points swing to the upside and ended (undecided) mid-range. Therefor there is no way to tell what the market is going to do next. The Weis Wave shows a lot of volume on the down waves with little effect. Because of this and because the last impulse was up I think we might test the high of the day and breakout or, when rejected, back to the low of the day. I would not trade this sideways action, maybe only the extremes of the range (swing high).
@Mich62 I know that my opinion is not very popular. I've also noticed that you trade mostly based on schematics so your reaction is expectable. My point is Wyckoff provides enough tools to judge the market without referring to some artificial model.
This is key, always have a plan in place whether the market goes up or down, then you are ready. If there is resistance overhead, have a plan ready if price looks to be reversing and a plan if it breaks through that resistance.
I agree with Mitch, I don't see anything that gives me a direction up or down. I'm not sure I would label the high volume and sharp advance at 0700 to be a buying climax per the Wyckoff schematic. Sometimes these charts seem easy to read and other times not. If I had to guess I would say up.
I'd go with up. Reasons being the rejection of lower prices on the last bar, and the general amount of effort - and lack of result - that went into moving the price down towards the spring at 18:00 and right before the close.
I have sheet music on my desk to 5 songs I have to learn for the 23rd so I must say I haven't devoted my full attention to this chart. But there are a lot of "tails" at 1800 which is the low since the big up move. Notice price hasn't come back down to that area since. there is also a 2 bar bottom reversal 3 and 4 bars back from the right edge which looks promising for an up move.
The answer as many of you correctly noted is up. The chart indicates unwillingness to go lower on a test of a breakdown which is typical for absorption. The market makes higher highs and higher lows. The most obvious clue is struggle to go lower at the retest point despite very high Weis Wave volume. The shakeout that happens at the right hand side of the chart and ends with a spring provides a nice low risk entry.
I think the thread could be more productive and rewarding if an instrument like the ES/NQ/YM/RTY/DAX would be used on say a 15 min interval and post your narrative as the market develops. It is not necessary to post on a bar per bar basis but when something significant happens. After all, who trades 24h/day. The examples posted so far assume the trader can pull the trigger on a timely basis which no one can do unless you trade the daily interval but i assume most here trade intraday so a 15 min interval would be a good choice.
That would be beneficial but copying a chart and marking it up and posting here while trying to stay zeroed in and focused on the live chart could be costly.
