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Watch Me Win


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Watch Me Win

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  #41 (permalink)
 asyx 
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Crude is earning me money - thank you.


asyx View Post
Soon I buy some back....


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  #42 (permalink)
 asyx 
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NQ:

Someone defending 16.300 in a big way. Hence, that was my day.


asyx View Post
NQ:

I would not be surprised if 16.300 is taken out today.

16.350 is good for a scalp after we retest 16.400 and then get momentum on the way down again. Otherwise not so much.


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  #43 (permalink)
 asyx 
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Money is flowing into the QQQ and the SPY, but the SPY is much better at absorbing the sellers (source: YCharts).

Nonetheless the S&P 500 better should make some healthy progress today and tomorrow.

If it can't achieve that, then the probability is quite high that the market searches for the next support at least 150-200 points lower.


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  #44 (permalink)
 asyx 
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Crude Oil:

Rebalancing of some commiodity indices ahead.

Therefore I reduce the position.


asyx View Post
Crude is earning me money - thank you.


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  #45 (permalink)
 asyx 
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NQ & Cryptos:

Looks like short-term NQ waterfall is coming.

Will drag Cryptos down with is.

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  #46 (permalink)
 asyx 
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After the dust has settled I buy some back, just in case there is some rebound.

But overall my stats make me believe, that the next few day are more red than green.



asyx View Post
NQ & Cryptos:

Looks like short-term NQ waterfall is coming.

Will drag Cryptos down with is.


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  #47 (permalink)
 asyx 
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Crude Oil:






asyx View Post
Crude Oil:

It moved faster up than expected.

I take some of the table in hope to buy it back later, for example after a retest of the break-out.

This actually is a multi-month-position. If it provides 20-30 % that would be fantastic.
Remember average annual performance of stock indices is 8-9 % (?)


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  #48 (permalink)
 asyx 
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Bitcoin:

Together with some money of my brother:





asyx View Post
NQ & Cryptos:

Looks like short-term NQ waterfall is coming.

Will drag Cryptos down with is.


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  #49 (permalink)
 asyx 
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VIX:





asyx View Post
The NQ is sold quite good at the moment.

But if the ES is not following the way down, then the VIX is not going to kick in. In such a case I have to close my VIX position - probably with a loss.


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  #50 (permalink)
 asyx 
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Liquidity - source Bloomberg:

"...Why such angst? There’s a lot in the minutes, with much useful information for students of the economy and monetary policy. You can find the full version here. For those less interested in such studies, the passage of three sentences that accounted for more or less all of the market reaction read as follows:

it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated. Some participants also noted that it could be appropriate to begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate. Some participants judged that a less accommodative future stance of policy would likely be warranted and that the Committee should convey a strong

This commits the central bank to nothing, but the notion that there were hawks on the committee who thought that the Fed should reduce the size of its balance sheet (in other words, start to sell off its huge bond holdings in a move that, all else being equal, should raise yields) came as an unpleasant surprise. Those words are there for a reason. The Fed thought it a good idea to plant a reminder of hawkish intent just as markets were ramping up again after the New Year break, and it seems to have worked..."


asyx View Post
It is not possible to forecast which level Gold reaches in the next 12 month or the S&P 500 or any other stock or market. All the institutions do it...but that's just for fun.

It is different with inflation-rates. It is proved that forecasting or estimating inflation is much easier. And it is also proved that (almost) no one is better at it as the FED.

The FED has 400 people and some to dig through the data. And one of few aims of the FED is to understand inflation.

The FED is setting interest rates and pumping money into and out of markets. Therefore, listening to the FED and following its actions very closely makes a lot of sense.

This is not only important for long-term positioning but also for day-trading. For example the days before an FOMC announcement and/or on that day and/or the days after there is usually a lot of volatility and extended moves. Personnally I do best under such and similar circumstances.


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