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Watch Me Win


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Watch Me Win

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  #11 (permalink)
 asyx 
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I trade a lot of NQ100 , be it ETFs or Micros.
A lot of times it is moving higher until New Year, after that , cards a shuffeled new.

But I reduce my position right now, because the developement in December so far seems unusual to me.

If most of the year is very strong, then I would expect a Santa Clause Rally too.

But this time there was a lot of selling pressure in the first halve of December. Only then came the actual pullback.

... and of course there is inflation and looming interest rate hikes...

I don't think we reached the market top already. Because I am most times a little bit to early to buy and to sell.

Therefor keeping a runner makes sense to me. Nevertheless I don't want to be all in.

The reason is that market usually move much fast down than up if there is a correction or a bear market starts.

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  #12 (permalink)
 asyx 
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My wife and her brother are software engineers.

For example, they implemented Artificial Inteligcene algorithms and stuff like that.

They worked for companies like IBM.

Compared to them I look like a stupid sock...and I finished University as one of the best in that year.

As you see, I have mighty forces on my side.

Therefore I suggest you to get rid of simple charts.

If you are a day trader or swing for few days, then orderflow is the best way to go. But you really have to know THE ONE MARKET you trade to "read" what's going on.

If your focus is on a longer timeframe, then liquidity provided by central banks should be your main focus.

Regarding aformentioned liquidity: you could get data for example from EIKON, central banks, YCharts....

Indirectly you could watch a lot of Interest rates - hint: not only the US 10 year...

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  #13 (permalink)
lightsun47
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asyx View Post
As you see, I have mighty forces on my side.

Can I join your mighty side, Master?



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  #14 (permalink)
 asyx 
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I hold the following positions at the moment:

Adva Optical Networking: like other Networking COs ADVA is doing quite well at the moment. EV to Earnings is below 11. EV to Revenues is a mere 0,96. They profit also from other COs reshuffling their supply chain. Moreover ADVA keeps improving its profit margin since end of 2017

CSI300: Chinese Government has done a lot do deflate bubbles. Then there are a lot of issues with Developers like Evergrande. Additionally the crackdowns on Tech-Stock( leaders) and Influencers. Policy making is always good for a bad surprise. Chinese stocks lag other stock markets most since 1998. In my opinion the sentiment is that bad that the market should already be good for a rebound in the coming months. I hope my timing is not off.

Crude Oil: lots of talk about electric vehicles...but I do not see it on the streets. I think as soon as the latest Covid wave dies down we move on to business as usual again. OPEC is supporting higher prices and Shale Oil has to pay back debts. I buy below $ 70 and plan to hold it at least 6-12 month.

NatGas: I hope for a very short-term rebound, initialized by colder days to come and rising LNG exports to Europe. I fear the timing is off because the position went straight against me.

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  #15 (permalink)
 asyx 
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TOKYO, Dec 24 (Reuters) - Japan's cabinet approved on Friday an annual budget of $940 billion that is a record for a tenth straight year, putting priority on the response to battling COVID-19 and the prime minister's aim of growth and wealth distribution.


Source of following charts - YCharts:






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  #16 (permalink)
 asyx 
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I try to remember that for next year - source Bloomberg:


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  #17 (permalink)
 asyx 
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Gold versus Central Banks total assets -source YCharts:




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  #18 (permalink)
 asyx 
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Too often when a position goes fast against from the beginning the whole trade developes not like expected.
Therefore, I reduce the NatGas position a little bit.

I think the reason why this trades do overall not develope like expected is, that the big guys which were able to buy the "local" lows actually have the main impact on how far the reaction runs.
Hence if I am not in sync with them, I probably do not have the same price targets set, like they perhaps have in mind.

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  #19 (permalink)
 asyx 
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In the past I was a big fan of Gold.
At the moment I am more cautious because I think Ray et al. bid this market up to fast.
In my opinion only if several developed countries suffer from inflation rates of at least 6-7 % , for a prolonged time, then another leg upwards makes sense.

As you could see GLD lost 5 % so far this year, but AUM is down more than 20 % YTD - source YCharts:




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  #20 (permalink)
 asyx 
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asyx View Post
Too often when a position goes fast against me already at the beginning the whole trade developes not like expected.
Therefore, I reduce the position.


selling some NatGas

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