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MES & MNQ using volume profile and orderflow


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MES & MNQ using volume profile and orderflow

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  #11 (permalink)
sloth
Denver, CO
 
 
Posts: 23 since May 2021
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Lilgregy View Post
Thursday, November 4th Recap:

Here again I am questionning my process, contrary to other bad days I've had, I was not totally careless. The trades were made at decent locations (RTH VWAP and FS VWAP), but it was probably due to the fact I could not read the market and the context.
ES 04.11

I think you're hitting on the crux of the issue for a lot of traders. What type of day is it? There's a fairly well known educator, who I won't name, who's written thousands of pages in a number of books who describes how to trade trends, how the trade ranges, how to trade reversals, etc... The part that cracks me up is that I don't think he ever really does an adequate job of explaining (if at all) to his readers how to tell what type of day it is quickly.

In your case - on what day types is VWAP a good location for entry? On what day types will price sliced through it? How do you know when you're wrong?

This is a good journal. Your honest self evaluation and reflection will serve you well. Tomorrow is a new day.

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  #12 (permalink)
 Lilgregy 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: EdgeClear
Trading: ES / MES
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2020
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sloth View Post
In your case - on what day types is VWAP a good location for entry? On what day types will price sliced through it? How do you know when you're wrong?

This is a good journal. Your honest self evaluation and reflection will serve you well. Tomorrow is a new day.

Thank you sloth.

Obvisouly VWAP and mid are great locations on trend days, what I thought the day was shaping up to be. Seems obvious in hindsight but during the day we could say I had tunnel vision and struggled to see the market for what it was. After the facts I can find some clues that the trend might not continue, the first one would be price holding below the IBH and failing to break it and then the fact that no reversal happened at both VWAPs.

However, I could have still taken the 3 first trades knowing that as each time there was still some reaction on these locations.

If there is anything I am missing I'd be glad to hear your views on this.

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  #13 (permalink)
 Lilgregy 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: EdgeClear
Trading: ES / MES
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 14 given, 23 received


Friday, November 5th Recap:

After the bad day I had on Thursday, I thought I'd focus more on MNQ now as it was the market I was initially trading and prefer its movement. I recently traded more MES as I got into learning orderflow.

I did not plan well and was in a bad mindset as I often am after a bad day. As mentionned at the start of my journal I often think that after a big loss I'll start again "fresh", let's say on Monday. When I think like that I can easily get to a point where I am absolutely careless and do not care anymore as I say to myself I'll have a fresh start monday.

Well this is exactly what happened, after a first trade that was decent on MNQ I started taking too many trades on inexistant setups. Saying I overtraded would be an understatement. It got to a point where I removed my daily loss limit on Sierra (about 5% of my account) and I got to a loss of about $270, just below the daily loss limit I set with my broker at 10%. This was obviously a good idea to have this one at 10% as I can't remove it as easily and if I break it I can't trade for the day. So I stopped there and left to do other stuff for a while, I came back and started trading again. I probably was a few dollars away from hitting the 10% limit but miraculously managed to go back to a positive PnL of about $70 on the drop that happened. I should have stopped there, that's also what I told myself but I kept trading and ended up the day negative $180...



What a roller coaster day, I really need to stop having days like that.

My focus will now be on improving my C game. I'm currently reading "The Mental Game of Trading"' by Jared Tendler. He talks about a concept that resonated with me called the inchworm concept.

From the book : "The Inchworm Concept is literally based on the inchworm, a caterpillar that moves in a distinct way. If you’ve never seen the way an inchworm moves, it starts by stretching its body straight, anchoring the front “feet,” and then lifting up from the backend. It then bends at the middle to bring the two ends closer together, anchors the back feet, and then
stretches its body straight again to take another step forward"

His point is that most traders focus on improving their A game, while most of them would need to improve their C game in order to progress. As the inchworm, we need to bring are backend forward in order to move forward, reducing the gap between our A and C game. What's the point of having a number of good days if one bad day can erase them all?

So, as of now, I'll try to improve my C game in order to progress as a trader as I think it is what holds me back.

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  #14 (permalink)
sloth
Denver, CO
 
 
Posts: 23 since May 2021
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Lilgregy View Post
Thank you sloth.

Obvisouly VWAP and mid are great locations on trend days, what I thought the day was shaping up to be. Seems obvious in hindsight but during the day we could say I had tunnel vision and struggled to see the market for what it was. After the facts I can find some clues that the trend might not continue, the first one would be price holding below the IBH and failing to break it and then the fact that no reversal happened at both VWAPs.

However, I could have still taken the 3 first trades knowing that as each time there was still some reaction on these locations.

If there is anything I am missing I'd be glad to hear your views on this.

I'm not going to pick apart your trades with the benefit of hindsight. That's not productive. As you say - things are obvious in hindsight. I will mention a couple things though. True trend days don't occur that frequently. Less than 15% of the time? That number jumps around based upon HTF conditions but it's pretty low. Of all day types, normal variation days occur most frequently. So, if you have an open type that jibes with the potential for trend or normal variation - assuming that it'll end up retracing a good portion of the AM's range is most probable. IN THE ABSENCE of other indications of a true trend day.

The other thing that might be helpful - if you take a valid setup at good location with a reasonable sized stop and you get stopped out. The odds go way up that your assessment of the day type is off. So, there's no need to give it a second try or third try. The market is giving you feedback. Listen to it.

Just a couple of thoughts. My intention is to provide helpful feedback for you to ponder and accept or reject as you see fit. Carry on.

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  #15 (permalink)
 Lilgregy 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: EdgeClear
Trading: ES / MES
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 14 given, 23 received


sloth View Post
Just a couple of thoughts. My intention is to provide helpful feedback for you to ponder and accept or reject as you see fit. Carry on.

Thank you, there are some really good advice in your answer.

After the first trades I should have been more patient to see how the day would be shaping up, even if it means missing out on a trade, but I really struggle with patience and was probably a bit stubborn after the first losses. I find it really hard sometimes to stay objective and keep in mind the context, but I'll hopefully get there at some point.

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  #16 (permalink)
sloth
Denver, CO
 
 
Posts: 23 since May 2021
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Lilgregy View Post
Thank you, there are some really good advice in your answer.

After the first trades I should have been more patient to see how the day would be shaping up, even if it means missing out on a trade, but I really struggle with patience and was probably a bit stubborn after the first losses. I find it really hard sometimes to stay objective and keep in mind the context, but I'll hopefully get there at some point.

La patience, ce n'est pas facile! Journaling, done on a sight like this or in private is definitely one of the best ways to identify if there are issues with the actual trading process or the emotional control / discipline. The two do seem to go hand in hand. Sometimes the analysis is done to justify the behavior.

Keeping records and journaling has helped me get clearer on my trading plan and more specific - especially when things get off track.

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  #17 (permalink)
 Lilgregy 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: EdgeClear
Trading: ES / MES
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 14 given, 23 received

I am back after quite some time. The way I trade is mainly the same with some minor adjustments.

I now use a fixed trade management with target and stop based on rotations. I figured this is the best way, at least for me, as it greatly reduces emotions while in a trade, you just let the trade be until it hits your stop or target. I get less tilted that way as I can't blame myself for poor trade management, or trades turning agaisnt me as long as I respect the process.

I am continuing this journal as I start the trader career path from E2T that starts at 50K for this month.

I will trade ES only with a max size of 1 contract.

I took 2 trades today and reached the daily target of $900. I considered today as a trend day as we gapped up and were unable to pullback at the open. Buyers were very strong so I waited for a signal to enter long, I entered as we broke the ONH and quickly retested it.

I entered the 2nd trade as we retested a small range that had seen a good amount of sellers absorbtion. Ultimately, my target for the day was around 3775 as it was the POC of the previous balance we built last week. If I had 2 contracts, I would probably have held a runner from the 1st trade to this level as I thought it was a trend day. However, with 1 contract I prefer to stick to my original target.

2022-06-21

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  #18 (permalink)
 Lilgregy 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: EdgeClear
Trading: ES / MES
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 14 given, 23 received

22/06/2022 Recap

I end the day up $500 which adds up to $1400 out of the $3000 needed to finish the evaluation.

Today was tougher, my first trade was a good setup but I was stopped because of poor execution and a late entry. Usually when I enter a trade I have a max stop and I only enter if that stop is below the swing high/low, in this case as I entered late my stop was in the middle so I got stopped out of what was a valid setup.

I overtraded later in the day, and did not always respect my trade management rules. I will have to improve on that and learn to walk out earlier as I tend to lose focus and be more impulsive as time goes by.


2022-06-22

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  #19 (permalink)
Babushkaboi
Arlington, Virginia, USA
 
 
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Thanks for the post!!

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  #20 (permalink)
 Lilgregy 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: EdgeClear
Trading: ES / MES
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2020
Thanks: 14 given, 23 received


23/06/2022

Had a pretty bad day, started pretty well but got worse as I overtraded in a choppy market. Broke the Daily Loss Limit allowed and therefore failed the evaluation. I set my own daily loss limit at 3 full stops so around $600 and have a rule to stop trading after 3 losers in a row, I respected neither of these rules. I still struggle to stomach losing days especially in evaluations like this as my profit is also capped. Because of the consistency rule my maximum daily profit is $900 for a DLL of $600. While these rules are not bad, it puts more focus on the PnL than I like to have in my own account, something I had to detach myself of off in the first place. I will have to deal with it until I can pass the evaulation nas the consistency rules disappears afterwards.

I don't have the fills as the account is closed.

24/06/2022

I started another evaluation today.

Strong gap up premarket, breaking away from previous balance. In this context, I'm leaning long for the day, as we were not able to have a pullback at the open, I'm expecting a gap and go type of day, strong trend up.

I took 4 trades and reached the daily target of $900.

First trade was a loser as it was too agressive and I did not wait for a significant enough pullback, I think it was a rather poor trade, not respecting my trend pullback setup. -3.75P

2nd trade was much better, deeper pullback retesting prior high, agressive sellers unable to push it down and absorbed. I managed it as a runner as I'm expecting a trend day : +16.5P

3rd trade was terrible, entered just after my trailing stop was hit, no reason behind the trade besides wanting to hit my daily target as the previous trade was stopped before doing so. -3.75P

4th trade was decent, trend pullback setup like the 2nd one but with a fixed target. +9P

2022-06-24

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