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I am trading the MES micro futures on the Ninjatrader 8 platform - here’s my plan. I call this swing trading because I am holding to for larger targets 4 - 10 points, intraday on a 9000 tick chart. I am holding out for bigger targets and using a higher periodicity because when I trade shorter time-frames I tend to get chopped up.
Trade Area
• Price outside 1 std dev of the weekly vwap
• Price near weekly open, high or low
• Price near prior week high, low or close
• Price near weekly noise levels ( fat tails / lizard indicators)
• Price reaction to daily open, high or low after IB is set
• Price reaction to prior day close, high or low after IB is set
Risk and Reward
• Stop around - 7.5 pts
• Target 2- 4 points on 1st contract 7 - 10 on the second target
• All this is dynamically adjusted by price action in the area
Order Flow
I have studied this topic for years, tried to scalp the Dom. Sometimes I can trade with order flow as a qualifier. The last year has been spotty for me. Sometimes I can see what’s going on there and sometimes I can’t. I have decided to turn my Dom off for this journal.
Daily Money Management
• 1 or 2 micros
• 10 points gain
• 3 full stop-outs max
Big Picture
• I look at the daily every morning and make mental notes of where I think the larger time frame players are going to start getting involved. I consider if we are in a range environment or trending on this time frame. If we are trending up - or trying to trend up on the daily. I tend not to be short. This week didn't seem like a great week to short as it unfolded but you will see in my chart below, I would have done very well to short.
Chart and Indicators
• 9000 tick chart
• Ninjatrader 14 period CCI
• Weekly Range Projections. I am using a paid version from lizard trader.
• Tick Counter called bar status, free from Ninza.co.
• A few alerts that I have written and will post when stable
• Ninjatrader Lifetime License Orderflow Volume Profile set to weekly
• Ninjatrader Lifetime License Orderflow Vwap with the 1st std dev grey. Fat Tails Version:
Version 2.0 August 11, 2017
The Current Week VWAP is the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of a security for the current week. The VWAP gives a fair reflection of the market conditions throughout the trading week and is one of the most popular benchmarks …
Examples
I have been testing this for about a month and live trading the last week. Here are the trades I took last week. As I review the chart it doesn’t really look like swing trading so I might need to call this something else like daily / weekly resistance.
Monday, Oct 4, 2021
No Scheduled Financial Data Releases.
Weekly Up, Daily down but showing signs of heading back up. My Bias is sideways / up.
News: 1.6 million Chinese have signed up for new apartments that have not been built. Thinking Evergrand might not hold so much interest this week.
Sleep: 8 hrs
2 trades today + 10 points
1: BE traded bounce off Globex low. +2 target, -2 pt stop. had +6 pts of profit, was holding for 7 - 8 ish. Not great trade management here.
2: +10 points off of yesterday's low. just 1 contract here because I could see this low being tested again after my entry. Also had prior week low right under this level.
"You need to be aware of your tendency to sabotage yourself Stop blaming your losses on bad luck or on others and take responsibility for the results. Start keeping a diary ..."
Alexander Elder. Trading for a Living 2021-10-04
Tuesday Oct 5, 2021
ISM PMI Data @8:45 AM
Weekly Up, Daily down but showing solid support @ 4270. My Bias is sideways / up.
Evergrand owes 300 billion, Those 1.6 million who have money down on an apartment are sure gonna be unhappy.
Sleep: 8 hrs
Snoozefest of a day, wanted a long entry but didn't happen. Slow grind after 9:00 AM.
2 trades -7.5 pts
1: -7.5 shorted prior week close, steep price action, I was suspicious but took the trade anyway.
2: BE shorted this weeks open.
Wednesday, Oct 6. 2021
7:15 Non-Farm Payroll
Weekly Up, Daily down but showing solid support @ 4270.
Simple day, got in pre-market before the news was + 10 pts and ready to go flat, the news was bullish so I held for the vwap. I thought we had more room to go than just the 10 points because of the revcent volatility.
1 Trade + 22.75 pts
Long in the area of prior lows, got out at pause near VWAP
"Most people cannot accept uncertainty. They have a strong emotional need to be right. They hang onto losing positions, waiting for the market to turn and make them whole. " Alexander Elder. Trading for a Living 2021-10-06_08-52-01
Thursday, Oct 7th, 2021
No Major news today, debt agreement almost reached
Weekly Up, Daily turning up but showing solid resistance @ 4430.
Sleep 7 hours
My only entries would have been short but I didn't like how strong the market was. Seemed like a beach ball underwater. 35 point gap up then slow grind.
No Trades Today
"Winners think, feel, and act differently than losers. You must look within yourself, strip away your illusions, and change your old ways of being, thinking, and acting."
Alexander Elder. Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management (p. 42).
Lowered my expectation because of the choppy environment. Also wanted to take my profits and run on a slow Friday. That will preserve my "Emotional Capital" As well as my trading capital.
"Most people trade for partly rational, partly irrational reasons. Rational reasons include the desire to earn a large return on capital. Irrational reasons include gambling and a search for excitement. Most traders are not aware of their irrational motives."
Alexander Elder. Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management (p. 51).
Monday, October 11th, 2021
Bank Holiday today
Sleep: 8 hrs
Weekly Up, Daily turning up but showing solid resistance @ 4430. Open inside yesterday's range. Not anticipating a lot today because of the holiday, didn't force a trade but I found one of my usual suspects. I shorted the prior day's high.
