I believe it is time for me to start my journal. I need to post charts, so I can refine and look back at similar days to grow and learn from them. So I am going to start out by explaining my goal, method, entry, exit, charts, example and exceptions.
1. To evaluate daily, weekly, and monthly P/L for better entries and all around optimization.
2. Review my philosophy on trades to determine my proper risk/reward tolerance.
3. Plot orders that didn't get filled to tweak entry and exit criteria.
4. After time evaluate amount of contracts that will be needed to meet full-time monthly income with my trading style.
Use a two bar break of a support or resistance area, wait for a pull back, then enter long or short. Second bar needs to close above or below first bar, and be in upper or lower half of bar, depending on if it is breaking support or resistance. See example. Looking for 2:1 risk to reward or better. I am looking for 3-4 trades a day. The instrument will be the ES. Keeping it simple, sort of. Now the definitions.
Support/ Resistance: Trigger lines and mid band of Keltner Channel. Pullback: Trying for at least 38% Fib retracement
I will try to get my entry within 5 ticks of the S/R area that was just broken. The plan is to use a risk of 5 ticks and reward of 10 to 12 +. I would prefer to see the pull back to my entry make it 38% because my exit will be based on a Fibonacci extension.
Once in a trade, I will try and hold the trade to a full 100% extension. But once trade makes it to 61%, I will try and protect profits. If stop gets hit, so be it. Start looking for next entry.
Higher Time Frame Chart : 2584 tick chart
High Period Trigger Lines
Low Period Trigger Lines
MACD with Bollinger Band
Lower Time Frame Chart: 610 tick chart
Same as above with additional trigger line.
See attached marked up chart.
1. I am giving myself 1, and only 1 per day "gut feeling" trade that does not meet my criteria. Use it wisely. i.e. feeling a counter-trend or breakout coming.
We will see you on Monday to start my journal.
The following 3 users say Thank You to kylinbyl for this post:
Hi Kylinbyl, glad to see another journal here and you seem to be off to a good start.
Looking forward to more!
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
Need help? 1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first. 2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses. 3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make. 4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance. 5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers. 6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.
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Well for the first day of my trading journal I made 2 ticks profit. As you can see I am a conservative trader. Reasons for this journal are to capture a few things. So I need to document some things about each of the trades to be able to come back and learn from it.
Stats for today
2 actual trades(-4,+7) = +3 - 1(commissions) = +2
1 No fill by 2 ticks ( documenting this to help with entries)
2 passed on. (1 for news, 1 for divergence)(both turned out ok, but will that always be the case)
2 bar break of small and large triggers but not mid band. Next bar was equal close. Was going to take trade at first touch of small trigger(1140) but didn't. Move up couldn't break supertrend first time. Second touch I took. Went 4 ticks in right direction. Moved stop 1 tick up. Could have moved it 2 more because I knew it had to break supertrend to continue.
No fill 1
Had direction right. Needed deeper retracement. Was watching 1210 tick chart and price was at trigger lines but not in trading plan yet, so missed this one.
2 bar break of small triggers coming off of a supertrend rejection. Still didn't break mid band. Took entry at small trigger(1129.75). Watched as price went to mid band. Needed break. Hit 61% extension after breaking mid band. Moved stop to low of bar that broke 61% on 610 chart. Stop was hit. No thrust to 100% extension.
Notes about today - I seem to really like to only look for longs when MACD dot is above mid band on indicator. As well as the opposite for shorts. Would have liked more entries, but didn't lose money today.
The following 2 users say Thank You to kylinbyl for this post:
Market found my Achilles heal. One area I need to work on is one-way trending market. There were several long signals but I kept focusing on short entries. Psychology played a part in my trading today, didn't just trade the signals.
Stats for today
3 actual trades(-3,-5,-4) = -12 - 1(commissions) = -13 ticks
3 passed on. (all for mental bias)(all turned out good)(all were with overall trend).
2 bar break of small triggers down. Entry at 1143.25. Target was Supertrend indy then break of it and beyond. Stop was going to be moved once supertrend was touched to protect profits. Moved stop once price went 4 ticks in my direction. Stop was hit - 3 ticks. Stop was right. Uptrend continued.
After news settled had 2 bar break of small triggers. I entered early at 1146.00, both the 610 and 2584 charts showed a 1146.50 entry. Target was Supertrend again, then possible break of mid band. Because of early entry stop was hit at - 5 ticks. I was trying for 10 ticks therefore my risk could only be 5. 2:1. Better entry would be made profitable trade.
Exception trade. I took my one and only exception to the rules trade. 610 chart showed possible head and shoulders pattern. i tried to sell the right shoulder. Didn't work out. Other factors were third try at making small triggers be resistance. Stopped out at 4 ticks, could have moved it to 3. Didn't follow the trend line on the 610 chart that I drew as stop line.
Notes about today - Had opportunities both directions, but only focused on one side. Would take shorts again if they meet criteria, but also need to take longs if they meet criteria. One long was to close to call, but other two were valid entries. Still have 5 ticks to mess with before daily stop trading signal, but done for the day.
The following 4 users say Thank You to kylinbyl for this post:
Today I ended up with 4 trades. Didn't trade to much in afternoon. Would have had one additional winner and one additional loser. Passed on a trade that I should have, but took a trade earlier that was very similar for a negative. Flat trigger lines or moving averages or whatever are not established trends. I don't like taking full stops.
Stats for today
4 actual trades(-5,-3,+5,+4) = +1 - 2(commissions) = -1 tick
1 passed on. (flat lines)(turned out it would have been wrong).
2 bar break of all lines. Entered early again. With a 5 tick stop you have to be precise. Entry at 1157. Target was 1158.5 then beyond. Made it to target, but I was stopped out at - 5 ticks(exact low).
Was looking for continuation of the current uptrend. Entered on touch of small trigger. Edge was held for a couple of bars. Moved stop because if it came back any farther it would have taken my full stop out. -3 ticks.
Downtrend pushed past large and mid band. Retracement came back to small triggers. I entered at 1156.25. Price moved a touched what I had as a 61% extension. I then moved stop to protect profits. Stop was hit with trade making +5 ticks. Exactly what I try to do. Next trade was poor execution.
Exact same scenario as trade 3. Push down, retrace, enter at small triggers. Problem was I moved the stop to early as rules state "needs to touch 61% before protecting profit". I can minimize a loss, but I don't want to protect profits(anything above B/E) till 61% is touched. I need to improve on holding trades. This was one way to do it. Stop was hit for +4, but there was a lot more potential, especially when intraday low was taken out.
Notes about today - If you hold the R-Multiple will take care of previous losing trades.
Last edited by kylinbyl; October 6th, 2010 at 07:48 PM.
The following 3 users say Thank You to kylinbyl for this post:
I only did one trade today. Basically a fill and quick close. Was not mentally into trading this setup today. I still watched and evaluated the market as it moved throughout the day. So I will post my chart.
Notes for today
1. Time frame may need to be lower. Possibly 1597 tick chart.
2. Missing a filter. (possibly add dynamic S/R for breakout of channel then pullback)
3. No established entry pattern, just touch of trigger line. (reversal bar will eat up 3 -4 ticks of 10 tick profit).
4. MACDBB on this time frame gives good direction. (above/below mid band)
The following user says Thank You to kylinbyl for this post:
Yes I need to watch for the overall price action dots and if we are continuing in a LL, HL pattern then watch for my break to the downside like today. The MACDBB dots were showing a down pattern when they broke though the mid band on that indicator at 10:30AM. Just needed HH to fail, which was at about 11:35AM. That was the key to look for a good short opportunity.