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Kylinbyl's Journal

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  #51 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

I am disappointed in myself. Took 1 trade for +5, but let me step you through my morning session.

I watched the market till after 10:00am consumer news. We then had a breakdown below my trigger lines. Filter is met that we start looking for shorts. Criteria is then met when stoch and volume go south. Enter for me is trigger lines if possible. Entered @ 723.1. Chart was flashing support dots from Ehlers Sine wave. That just lets me know we have possible support here. I look at the chart and see we are in a HH, HL pattern right now. So being conservative I exit the trade +5.

Six bars go by and if my thinking is right, we should break up above the trigger lines. We do and now several traders are trapped short. Stoch turns up and volume is above 50. Trigger lines say 723.4 - 723.7 is a good entry. Stop will be 722.7 or so. Price is there ok where am I going to enter. I want the best price, so I don't lose that much if I am wrong. (RIGHT THERE IS YOUR MISTAKE). Price jumps up 7 ticks. Entry is gone.

Removing the emotion from a trade is the hardest thing to do as a beginner trader. I need to take corrective steps to accomplish this. I think this is the hardest step to take. I think my analytical skills have grown. My setup has proven to me is will work. I have spent screen time watching the bars to understand what they should and shouldn't do. But I still miss trades because I am scared to lose still. Got to get over the hump.

Stats for today
1 actual trades(+5) = +5 - 1(commissions) = +4

Notes about today - Take on Nike motto - "Just Do It!"

Billy

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  #52 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

November was an interesting month. My account says I had a positive month. Not by much but still positive. My journal shows good days and bad days. I switched instruments, but that I believe is for the better. More movement offers bigger risks as well as reward.

My notes still show I need to hold for bigger gains. As well as take the emotion out of the trade. So how to do that.......

1. I can do the all or nothing approach. Stop placed, target placed. Which ever is hit first is the winner.
2. I can do a bar by bar talk. Bars move fast, would need to think a little ahead.
3. What I have back tested shows me usually 15 ticks is the profit. Sometimes less sometimes more. Hardcode it.

I am going to go with number 2, but start asking "what gets me out of this trade?" Not "I am up 5 ticks, what keeps me in this trade?". Going to be tough to reinforce for me, but can be done.

Everyone says psychology is what you have to master to be a good trader. They are right. The trade is actually the easy part now. Karma will probably slap me for writing that, but I do think my technical skills have grown from all this screen time.

Week1

11 trades (45% winners/55%Losers) for +12 ticks total.

Week2
12 trades (33% winners/67%Losers) for -10 ticks total.

Week3
11 trades (45% winners/55%Losers) for -5 ticks total.
I missed writing to my journal for 3 days and I don't remember why.
I had -5 , -12, +10 days. Nothing out of the ordinary. Thanksgiving was the busy week, but I missed them.

Week4
3 trades (100% winners/0%Losers) for +19 TF ticks total.

Week5
2 trades (100% winners/0%Losers) for +13 TF ticks total.

Billy

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  #53 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Great job on the journal, keep at it - you are making progress!

Mike

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  #54 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

I have noticed the first of the month is a very bullish day or very bearish. Today opened with an overnight spike up. I hate when it does that because I can't tell which direction the day will be. I like when there is no gap. I think it is easier for me to see possible breakouts because we are already in a range.

Stats for today
4 actual trades(+1,-11,-15,-16) = -41 - 2(commissions) = -43

Notes about today - I tried to take every signal today but when I was in a trade and got the opposite signal, I wouldn't get out. Moved my stop on two trades to my maximum 15 ticks, BAD. If you are counter-trend trading, the tighter stop I had was the right choice. Once the trend resumes it goes. If it is a reversal, it won't give the opposite side hope. It will get close but not beyond.

I had a bad day but I am not going to change anything. Usually I start looking for better indicators or change my style. This was an up morning with no change in trend. I struggle with these and always have. They don't happen enough for me to recognize them.

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  #55 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

OK I don't think I should have these days anymore. So I had to mark up my 233 chart and post it to prove it was poor execution and not the technical portion. I am struggling with the psych part and need to do this for reinforcement. IT IS OK TO LOSE AND TAKE THE NEXT TRADE. Had to tell myself that. Do what you see and not what you feel.

If you follow the chart and still have a losing day. Well then it was meant to be. But I think there will be very few of those days.

There now I feel better.
Billy

Looking forward to tomorrow.

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  #56 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Correct me if I am wrong, but you got about 9 signals mostly opposite/rotating in an hour or two within a 2 point range. To me, this is chop.

For CL, I often call it a "50 tick chop" because CL moves quite a bit, but when it is range bound in a 50-tick box you have to sell the tops and buy the bottoms, opposite of what you would do in a trending market. For your market I would say 2 points is about equivalent to this chop box.

Mike

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  #57 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

You are right, I usually get up to 4 entries in the first hour. There was an exorbitant amount today. I will have to recognize this in days to come. For the past couple of weeks the TF has been moving up and down pretty descent, so it never even crossed my mind. Once you set back and look at the chart you can see the range. Now during the trading session I was watching the HH HL, then LL pattern. But it was only by a tick or so, then they would bring it right back into the range.

Sucks being a beginner and not seeing those things yet.

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  #58 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

I took 6 trades today. There were no real breakouts to hold more than 6 -10 ticks. I was on the wrong side of news but I think I managed my trades ok. Not great but well enough.

Stats for today
6 actual trades(+6,-12,+6,+4,-2,+1) = +3 - 3(commissions) = BE

Trade 1 was a long with a target at the supertrend indicator. It did make it there but I took profits at the resistance dots.
Trade 2 shorted the down move, but news and upward strength denied it.
Trade 3 & 4 I shorted for to the large trigger line.
Trade 5 I shorted since we were through the large triggers. I was going to hold this for bigger gains so I didn't take the 6 ticks. Once the support dots started to draw and the direction changed, I exited at the best possible location. For me support seemed to be 747.3. So I took a 2 tick lose. Proud of myself that I didn't try to get break even. Would not have got there.
Trade 6 got a short signal but 233 said wait. Exited +1.

Notes about today - Didn't make anything, didn't lose anything. Look at RvR. I am probably risking to much for my targets.

Billy

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  #59 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

I decided last night to try something today. I was going to take my normal setups on a 233 tick chart. Well no trades today. I can't execute fast enough with the 233. I was thinking if I go with a smaller time I can use smaller stops and feel more comfortable with the trade. I could risk less then 10 ticks and get 6-8 ticks profit. Problem for me is by the time I want to place the order, price has moved away from me.

After watching the market today I know inside that the problem isn't execution is patience. I believe the 610 chart will work. I just need to stop seeing +7 ticks, TAKE IT,TAKE IT, TAKE IT. If I am going to risk 10-12 ticks, I need to start getting 15 - 20+ ticks.

So this weekend I am going to focus on exit strategy. I need a good exit plan. I am going to look at several charts and try and figure out what turns the tide showing an exit. This is the next step I need to understand.

Billy

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  #60 (permalink)
 incometrade 
Rochester Hills, Michigan
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Trading: Currency Futures
 
Posts: 200 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 856 given, 143 received


Kylinbyl, have you tried other time frames, and also I would like to go over something this week with you on a technique similar to yours that i have used. Breakout, range... you can reach me on skype or just on here.

Incometrade
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Last Updated on December 8, 2010


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