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Kylinbyl's Journal

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  #41 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Hi Billy, great job on journaling. I'd like to see you focus more on what corrective steps you are taking to break the cycle.

Use caution with "would have" wording... I have a saying called w/c/s (woulda, coulda, shoulda). It's a waste of time to analyze such things. Focus instead of "how can I..." followed by things like "not make this mistake again", "get a better entry", "get a better exit", "ride this winner longer", "avoid chop", etc etc. Then come up with specific plans of attack (trading IS war), and measure yourself after each battle so you can be better prepared for the next battle and then ultimately win the war.

Mike

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  #42 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

"My name is Billy and I am trading blindly today". "Welcome Billy". I feel like I needed an AA meeting today. I have fought with myself for several weeks about missing trades and getting better entries and a multitude of scenarios. So let me tell you about my day.

Started out with a trade that went right against me and stopped out for -4 ticks. So I thought to myself well then its going up. Next trade - 5 against me. So it is going down. I am not going to miss this one. Got in at the back of my resistance line. Right up -6. Crap I am down -15 already. Very close to my daily limit. News is coming lets get lucky. You have a 50/50 shot. Lucky +9 on that trade. Do you get the picture I am out of control yet. I did. Stepped out of the room and walked around.

Here is what I thought about. You have had consistent days and bad days and BE days. What made that possible? What is your trade that you look for? Do you need all these trades?

My answers were that I trade from an area(Keltner band, mid band, large trigger lines, Supertrend). I use small triggers for support. I like MACDBB's outside of there bands. I like when we break lows or highs. Breaking the supertrend is a positive. So I made a quick list. I wanted one more trade today to prove to myself that trading is about taking high probability setups and not that there is a chance for 4 ticks out there.

Opportunity came.
Check list: Area was 2 bar break of mid band.
MACDBB dots were outside range
SMI in my favor
Supertrend was broke
Lower low
Pullback to trigger. ENTRY. Stop behind triggers.
Profit was 7 ticks which got me even for the day.
Honestly I just wanted BE to reflect on the day.

Stats for today
5 actual trades(-4,-5,-6,+9,+7) = +1-2(commissions) = -1

Notes about today - Finally accepted the question of do you have to be in every trade. Mike I made an intraday correction and you should see that same checklist answered on each trade next week. They don't all have to be in my favor, but using the list will help identify when the majority of items are. I lost track lately because I wanted more trades. But the good trades will get you to where you want to be.

Billy

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  #43 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received


Only one trade today. I don't think one trade a day will make me successful. I got +4 out of it.

Stats for today
1 actual trades(+5) = +5 - 1(commissions) = +4
1 trade no fill
1 missed, no pullback

No Fill 1
We had a move up from the open. I marked off HH, LL on the chart. We broke through with a two bar down. I tried to enter @ 1202.0. Did not make it that far.
Area: Black Resistance dots, and below large trigger.
MACD: outside band
SMI in my favor.

Trade 1
Pretty much same as no fill above. This time price did make it back up to let me in. I was worried about double bottom and didn't give it enough time to break it. Took +5.

Missed last trade as it went up with no pullback.

Notes about today - Limbo. Maybe I should take the indicators off and focus on price.

Billy

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  #44 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

I took two trades today. Well actually the same trade twice. Got stopped out the first time

Stats for today
2 actual trades(-6,+5) = -1 - 1(commissions) = -2

Trade 1
I had support dots and made a higher high. Entered to get into trade. Stop was in good place. Could have been one tick lower behind the HL. Got hit -6
Area was above large triggers.
MACD moved outside.
SMI in my favor.

Trade 2
Got back in after we ticked up to another high. Took +5 as I got resistance dots.

Notes about today - Going to research some things.

Billy

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  #45 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

I haven't posted in a couple of days because I have been watching the TF instrument. I am going to watch it for the next couple of weeks to get familiar with its tendencies. I think it will provide more movement for my system. I will post my chart so I can reference it later. I did take a trade today. Just a normal PA trade off the EMA. So far it seems that price doesn't pull back as often on the TF. But will shall see, that is why you watch and learn.

Stats for today
1 actual trades(+10) = +10 - 1(commissions) = +9

Trade 1
Had a nice "Al Brooks L3" that pulled me in and took +10 ticks.


Notes about today - So far I like the availability of opportunities the TF gives. Also allows single contracts to produce decent money. Volatility is more, but if you slow it down(610 chart), easier to read.

Billy

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  #46 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

Well another day watching the TF. I saw possibilities before existing home sales at 10:00AM. I planned on waiting till after that. Got into one trade but after looking at the area, decided to exit +5 because it could retrace lower. Reversal bar came but it moves very quickly. That is something I have to take into account with this instrument.

Stats for today
1 actual trades(+5) = +5 - 1(commissions) = +4

Trade 1
Broke outside the triggers. My up-down volume indicator was above 50 and stochastics were both pointing up. Entered on pullback bar @ 717.0 then exited @717.5.

No Fill 1
Had order @ 717.9 based on break back up over triggers. Volume and stoch confirmed up. Came back to 718.0. Exactly were the 233 chart had support. Work in progress.

Notes about today - I find the TF interesting. Problem is stops came be large at times because the signal bar is 15+ ticks. But contract management can help this. If it is large, less contracts equal reduced risk. Then scale in to a correct trade. Smaller bars can start off with more contracts, but smaller stops as well. Risk is equal.

Billy

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  #47 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

I again waited till after news to trade. I don't actually have to do this. I can be in and out before then with some setups. I had 1 no fill (my fault totally) and 1 actual trade.

If anybody is wondering why I don't have the MACDBB indicator on my chart is because I don't believe it responds the same on this instrument. I want it on there but from looking back at charts, it doesn't have the same meaning like the ES. So I am starting with stochastics and volume.

Stats for today
1 actual trades(+7) = +7 - 1(commissions) = +6

No Fill 1
Oscillator turned up and volume had previously poked above 50. Looked at 233 for entry. Triggers said 727.3. Changed my mind and wanted 726.9. Would have been filled at 727.3. Listen to the chart. It was still no where near your stop.

Trade 1
Price broke down from triggers on the 610 chart. I shorted at the trigger line (732.8). I exited because I glanced at my 6765 chart and saw that we hadn't even broke through those trigger lines. Was not time to short yet. Still to strong up day. I will attach chart to show you my reasoning. If we had been inside trigger lines, different story.

Notes about today - No notes, liking the TF so far.

Billy

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  #48 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

Wow the TF moved fast today for me. I took one trade for +10. It had 3 times more in it, but you learn those things. I am trying for a consistent 10 on each trade right now. Twice I was ready to put an order in and it move 20-30 ticks in 15 seconds. So obviously no order was placed. You have to be on your toes a lot more than the ES.

Stats for today
1 actual trades(+10) = +10 - 1(commissions) = +9

Trade 1
Price broke up from triggers on the 610 chart. I went long because of the pop through 50 on my volume indy and nice support dots at 726.7. I took my plus 10 but it went up 30 quickly. Down the road I want to get those ticks but right now I an still feeling out the TF. Came within 3 ticks of stop, but that was where my businessman's risk was.

Notes about today - Bars close quick and move right away. Need to analyze the bar close to closing. Not like the ES where you can wait for the close. Foresee what it should and shouldn't do.

Billy

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  #49 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
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Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
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Posts: 50,182 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,680 given, 99,536 received


kylinbyl View Post
Wow the TF moved fast today for me. I took one trade for +10. It had 3 times more in it, but you learn those things. I am trying for a consistent 10 on each trade right now.

Good job on the journal. What is your risk for these 10 tick winner trades?

Mike

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  #50 (permalink)
 kylinbyl 
Rochester
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received


I use the 233 tick chart to set my risk. I start with a 20 tick OCO order. I then move it just beyond the supertrend or trigger line on the 233 tick chart. So sometimes it is 5-8 ticks and yesterday it was 15 because I put it behind the lowest low.

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