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Kylinbyl's Journal
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Kylinbyl's Journal

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Buffalo
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

10-08-10

I am only trading the morning session for Friday. I took one trade, passed on a couple for different reasons.

Stats for today
1 actual trade(+9) = +9 - 1(commissions) = +8 ticks
2 passed on. (no volume)(to close to resistance).

Trade 1
2 bar break with second breaking the mid band. Used mid band as entry. Took profits at 100% extension. For me exactly how a trade should go. Yes it went further, but my exit criteria is 100% fib extension.

Notes about today - Happy with trade and of course mad at missed long run to upside. But remember how many times does it hit resistance and come right back. Need entry for strong moving trend with no retrace. Research time.
*It is hard to take opposite trade when you just had a winner in one direction.*

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  #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
Buffalo
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

10-11-10

I went into today knowing that it could have been light volume. Still took 4 trades, but didn't apply that light volume to exits. I am struggling with "when to hold em, and when to fold em". Not losses that is but profits. I have attached both my 2584 and 610 tick chart with thoughts.

Stats for today
4 actual trade(-2,+4,0,+2) = +4 - 2(commissions) = +2 ticks
Had over 18 ticks possible.

Trade 1
Trade 1 entered at 1162 was stopped out at 1162.50. Moved my stop from 5 to 2 when price moved to 1161.

Trade 2
Trade 2 touched moving average and then up ticked past high. Order was placed at 1163. Price went against but recovered with 2 bars. Price hit 61% ext and I moved stop to 1 tick lower than current low. Stop hit @ 1164.00

Trade 3
Strong move down. Entered at 1161.75. Price moved down but couldn't continue. Moved stop to BE behind moving average. Stop was hit.

Trade 4
Did not have my two bar break on the 2584 tick chart. But when price up ticked, I tried it with my one exception trade I give myself. Stop was only 3 ticks. Price went up but did not make 61%. And to be honest with people, I closed this trade with the close button. Didn't even let it hit the stop. 3rd of 4th time I had a profit that turned back. Frustration caused close.

Notes about today - Need to establish good trade profit management. Hard to do with all in all out concept, but that is what I like. Backtest if price moves so many ticks in your direction what is the average before it turns on 610 chart.

Billy

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Kylinbyl's Journal-10-11-10-2584tick.jpg   Kylinbyl's Journal-10-11-10-610tick.jpg  
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  #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
Buffalo
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

10-12-10


Today I only got into one trade. Attempted others, but did not have the proper entry picked.

Stats for today
1 actual trade(+6) = +6 - 1(commissions) = +5 ticks
1 No fill by 1 tick ( documenting this to help with entries)
1 totally missed till to late. ("your focus needs more focus")
1 was a hunch that didn't meet all the rules(trying to obey rules.)

Trade 1
2 bar break of mid band. Second bar closed in middle. But no real pullback developed, so when 610 chart showed reversal, I placed order at 1155.75. Target was 61% or 1157.25.

No fill 1
Nice move up that broke supertrend indy. Then pullback to small triggers. Reversal was a 3 tick up bar. I tried to get in 2 ticks back. Touched it but didn't fill me. Was worried about a mid band rejection. I wanted 1154.75 to try and get 4 ticks to the mid band. In my mind I was looking at risk to reward. Reward was more of course because it broke mid band. Didn't know that when placing the trade.

*Still OK with it because direction was good, trade was good, just improper execution.*

Notes from today - Made better choices about trend direction. Missed executions but could see trades developing. Feeling good about light bulb clicking. Still a little so at identification. Might need a middle chart to help see 2 bar break develop. Can't focus on three charts yet. Skill set not efficient enough. Really like mid band trades.

Billy

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  #14 (permalink)
Elite Member
Buffalo
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

10-13-10

3 trades today. If I would have logged on in time 4 trades. Missed the first one.

Stats for today
3 actual trade(+2,+4,+5) = +11 - 1(commissions) = +10 ticks

Trade 1
2 bar break with mid band rejection. Retrace came and I entered at 1172.25. I got scared out of extra profits. 61% ext was not hit but several bars passed with it topping out at large trigger. So I moved my stop to BE. Then I moved it to +2. That one got me. I don't like moving my stop past BE till 61%. This is a classic case why.

Trade 2
2 bar down. Entry at 1173.25. Exit at 1172.25. 2 bars tried to go through mid band with no success. 61% was established, so took +4 ticks.

Trade 3
Exception trade. 1 bar break up. The 2584 tick chart showed a large triangle. The one bar up and second bar after broke the highs. I entered after an edge was formed to know where to place my stop. Entry was 1174.00. Now the problem. Double top was formed and bar closed down within triggers. I placed limit order 1 tick below double top. Filled at 1175.25. Price did go down, but immediately went to the upside like I was looking for.

Notes from today - +10 with more potential. Not bad for me at this stage. Good entries again. Trade 2 worked out but could have waited for more conformation. Would have lost one additional tick.

Billy

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  #15 (permalink)
Just starting out...
Oklahoma City
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Mirus/Zen-fire
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 2 since May 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 2 received

I like your entries today they make sense. Like yourself I like entries at S&R levels where they make sense and Fib level pullbacks but at the 50% level or 62% level. Here's my chart.

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  #16 (permalink)
Elite Member
Buffalo
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

Can I ask you a question? At what point did you start moving your stop. That is one area I am trying to decide on what is best. Your chart has no lines besides the bottom trend line. Just wondering what other traders are thinking when a move goes there way? I see a secondary trend line start to form with all the lows after you got filled. Are you one tick behind those?

Billy

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  #17 (permalink)
Just starting out...
Oklahoma City
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja trader
Broker/Data: Mirus/Zen-fire
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 2 since May 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 2 received

Well that entry was at 1173.25 stop @ 71.50 so my risk is 1.75 pts I need 3.5 pts it went my favor exactly +5 pts could have taken the +5. But one thing I'm constantly working on is not to get out of a trade because it makes you feel good, I like for price action dictate to me where to get out. That is important !! That matching low pattern made sense for me to move my stop there and see what happens.

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  #18 (permalink)
Elite Member
Buffalo
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

10-14-10

There were several opportunities for me today but I didn't recognize them until after they started to move. I think I had 5 possible trades. Took 2 actual ones. After the last one I decided to stop. I was looking at the chart saying ok reversal bar here means down. There it is. Now we should start going down. There it goes. You dummy order window is on left monitor. Oh yeah. Already down 6 ticks. Can't jump in now, against rules. There will be more trades tomorrow.

Stats for today

2 actual trades(-4,+5) = +1 - 1(commissions) = BE
2 Missed. Can't call them NF because I didn't put order in.
1 passed on. (mid band got me earlier. So I passed on one. Next trade was below mid band, should have got that one.)

Trade 1
Push up, then flattened out. Entered at possible support for second push. No go. Had a 4 tick stop behind last low on 610. -4

Trade 2
Pushed up again, this time breaking the trend line I drew from the high at 8:30am to 9:45am. Waited for reversal bar. Interesting for me on this one was that I was prepared to get in at 1173. Had limit order in at 1172.75. Queued up market order and watched DOM. was going to take 1173 if depth went down to far for uptick. This shows me I had a lot of confidence in this trade. So now the bad part. After the trade I realized I was willing to take any profit over 4 ticks because the 1st trade of the day was a loser. Can't do that. System will take care of losses. Any of the 3 other possible trades I saw would have erased the -4 or even a second loss before the possible trades came up.


Notes about today - Need to focus more. It is OK to talk to yourself. Wife does not laugh anymore. Plus she only visits the home office once during the trading session. She won't here you say "Just need a reversal bar". Then act upon it.

Billy

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  #19 (permalink)
Elite Member
Buffalo
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

10-15-10

I took 0 trades today. Well that's not true. I did have one no fill. I was one tick off. But I have identified a problem.

The Problem

When price is moving in one direction like it was on Oct 5th and twice today I can't find an entry. Once I miss my initial entry, I don't seem to want to trade the trend. Sounds funny because most people what a trend. I do to but I need it to stop and start a lot.

Why?

I am always looking for a two bar break of the current trend. This doesn't happen in one-way trending until it hits bottom or top usually. If it does you are immediately taken out.

Possibilities

1. Keep looking for two bar break. Once it fails, train mind to look for continuation with trend. Need entry that fits my risk plan. Might not be able to determine reward.

2. Look for additional setups that still give you entries in one-way trending market.

Solution

I will edit this later.

Notes from today - Great move down missed fill. Unlike yesterday I did not have market order queued up. The trade was exactly the same. My favorite one even. Break of mid band, pullback to mid band. Enter. Now that I look happened twice. Once on the down move then on the up move.

*I think I am going to start a writing exercise. After each bar closes, interpret what I see. If I say pulled back to mid band it may click. That is only a sheet of paper a day. With a 2584 tick chart it doesn't happen that fast where it will effect decisions. We shall see.*

Billy

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  #20 (permalink)
Elite Member
Buffalo
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 56 since Jan 2010
Thanks: 11 given, 68 received

Mid Month Analysis


Week 1 ended with -4 ticks, while week 2 ended with +17 ticks. So I am up +13 ticks so far. What I have noticed is from week 1 to week 2 I have added a trigger on the 610 chart. This caused me not to take as many losers. My notes said it was missing a filter. I did not participate in any long trend moves either. I am adding a JMA to my 610 chart to help hold winners longer. I will decide if it helps or hinders at the end of this coming week or at the month end analysis.

Also from my notes I am researching other entry patterns. Especially when the reversal trend fails and the strong trend continues. That means I will need to document what type of trade I took. You will now see 2BB(2 Bar break) and 2BF(2 Bar fail) symbols on my trades.

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