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Swinging Stocks in the Dude's Style


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Swinging Stocks in the Dude's Style

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  #1 (permalink)
 SomePsychoDude 
Genova.Italy
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradingView
Broker: roboforex,binance/kucoin
Trading: equity&crypto
 
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Posts: 48 since Mar 2021
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I'm here to post my actual closed trades in order to share my style and for my own accountability.

Brief description:
1. Mostly the system is developed upon the books of Elder, as I found his approach simple as shit and at the same time very powerful.
2. Who read Elder's books know that his approach is mostly against the main trend with his beloved regular divergence. He trades three setups: pullback to value, fading an extreme, false breakout with a divergence. At the stage today as a trader, I trade only pullbacks to value (trend-following).
3. This one setup (pullback to value) has 7 different timing models (which I discovered by myself).
4. The system is very rigid and at the same time very flexible, can be traded during bullish and bearish markets.

My daily routine:
1. Every day once the market is closed, I screen for my setup with different timing models across all available stocks in order to understand if the market is bullish or bearish. Write down in the table number of stocks with the tot. Bullish and bearish setups. That gives me an understanding of whether is the market is prone to diverge from bullish to bearish and vice versa. For example: as the actual date I have 1390 long setups and 294 short setups (82.54% bull/17.46% bear), a clear strong bull market and I take trades only in that direction.
2. Every day before the actual work begins. 1h before the market close I track my psychological state in another table, which gives me an understanding of whether I can open the terminal or not. Once I have a positive value, I open my scanner and tables with the hold/ready lists and I'm ready to begin the actual work.
3. Screening phase is a very boring step. I can trade OTC stocks or super big-cap stocks. But I like to trade only the most popular ones. I began my work at 9 pm (1h before the close) I just flip through the charts that my scanner gives me with different timing models and timeframes 4h+1D and if this it (that is why I like this system, pre-template parameters are rigid but when the time comes to the selection I apply discretion based on how good it looks), I write down this particular stock in hold/ready table (once it's in the ready list, it can be executed).
4. Journaling phase: Once the market is closed, I began the journaling phase and past trades review.
Done.

Risks:
Close position 1 day before earnings
risk per trade=1%
Max open risk in the market = 6 %. (6 deals)
Drawdown 6% from balance top = completely forget about trading for at least 1 week and until you have a clear head/recovered psychologically from the loss.
Max duration of the deal in negative zone = 3 days
Max duration of the deal in positive zone = 30 days

Stops&Takes
The stop is based on at least 1 atr value if trading 4h timeframe, on daily that value can be shrunk.
Takes are 2atr+ value and risk/reward must be 2R+. But for more stable and faster returns and compounding, I think it should always stay in the range of 2-3R.

Winrate:
Maintain ~50% win rate and you will gain your fucking million.


In that style, I work 10 hours per week and that's almost stress-free. Screening and selection 1h and Journaling phase 1h per business day. I don't work on weekends as I did everything during business days.

Fundamentals?
Still working on this part of trading.

The system can be applied to all the markets.

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  #2 (permalink)
 SomePsychoDude 
Genova.Italy
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradingView
Broker: roboforex,binance/kucoin
Trading: equity&crypto
 
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Posts: 48 since Mar 2021
Thanks: 32 given, 30 received

Today have had a nice quick gain. Wish every trade was like this one.
Was executed on 7/28 at the market close. 4h timeframe. Net risk/reward after swap/commissions = 2.35r

in


out

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 SomePsychoDude 
Genova.Italy
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradingView
Broker: roboforex,binance/kucoin
Trading: equity&crypto
 
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Posts: 48 since Mar 2021
Thanks: 32 given, 30 received


This is my example of a short trade (i know that I shouldn't trade bear setups in the bull market, but it's just some practice to remember how to short). Shorted GME a few days ago. Overall it's profitable with 1/1 risk/reward but that's bad. So the rating is B for this one.
Closed another two deals almost at the b/e point, but I won't post on this forum scratch/loss trades. I'll just provide my stats at the end of the year.

in (3D)


in (1D)


out

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 SomePsychoDude 
Genova.Italy
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradingView
Broker: roboforex,binance/kucoin
Trading: equity&crypto
 
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Posts: 48 since Mar 2021
Thanks: 32 given, 30 received

As I mentioned before the system can be traded across all the markets. It's my example of usdcad forex trade entry-example. Everyone is discounting the "king" dollar (inflation), so why I shouldn't make some buck out of it.
I think while equity market can be traded only on technical (short-term). Forex market is more difficult and who's approaching it, must know what's behind those bars that we see on our charts.

But besides that, as days go by I'm more inclined into trading off fundamentals. If you look at the hedge-funds you won't find one that is purely basing it's strategies on technical analysis. So, fundamentals must be like 80-90% of your strategy and 10-20% technical (just for entries/exits)
usdcad

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 SomePsychoDude 
Genova.Italy
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradingView
Broker: roboforex,binance/kucoin
Trading: equity&crypto
 
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Posts: 48 since Mar 2021
Thanks: 32 given, 30 received

Closed usdcad in the partial loss. Closed also every long equity position as I expect a significant correction in the general market at this point. I'll work only on the short side in the next days if won't see any changes.
Opened one short position with SAVE (Spirit Airlines)
usdcad closed


snp500


nas100


Spirit Airlines

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 SomePsychoDude 
Genova.Italy
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradingView
Broker: roboforex,binance/kucoin
Trading: equity&crypto
 
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Posts: 48 since Mar 2021
Thanks: 32 given, 30 received

Shiller PE Ratio


It's absolutely clear that the stock market is overpriced. From another point, we have massive unstoppable QE (like in 2008-2009) and there is very little room for the market to fall. Maybe we are entering the new reality when PE ratio 20-45 will be normal, as I can see from the screen its classic box breakout, pullback, and V-shaped recovery.

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 SomePsychoDude 
Genova.Italy
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradingView
Broker: roboforex,binance/kucoin
Trading: equity&crypto
 
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Posts: 48 since Mar 2021
Thanks: 32 given, 30 received

Took two tests today. I Want to see how these parameters will change after some years of trading.

personality


the big five

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 SomePsychoDude 
Genova.Italy
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradingView
Broker: roboforex,binance/kucoin
Trading: equity&crypto
 
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Posts: 48 since Mar 2021
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In order to not waste an opportunity, bought some of that pyramid scheme. I don't believe in cryptos long-term, but they are better for speculation than penny/otc stocks. Will be holding that trash bin until long-term momentum comes to its end.
DENT

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 SomePsychoDude 
Genova.Italy
 
Experience: Beginner
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Broker: roboforex,binance/kucoin
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With normal leverage1to2, this hot IPO stock can provide ~120% return on the investment with the ride to ATH and possibly beyond.
I'm waiting for proper bars and go.


HOOD

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 SomePsychoDude 
Genova.Italy
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradingView
Broker: roboforex,binance/kucoin
Trading: equity&crypto
 
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Posts: 48 since Mar 2021
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On the currencies side, this one looks pretty good+fundamentally it's setting up for the prolonged upside move, but for the technical side, I need one more confirmation.
usdcny


model

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