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The CLQ/LWR (Cut Losses Quick-Let Winners Run) system
After almost two weeks, we have a red Heiken Ashi bar on the daily chart
Yesterday’s regular session profile overlapped with the previous day’s indicating a pause in the uptrend
Steep price drop in the overnight session almost like the beginning of a downtrend after pause
As of 7:30 am there is a gap between yesterdays RTH Lo and current price
My short term outlook has now changed to short.
If price breaks below the Hi of week before last, my long term outlook will also change to short
Price is currently (@8:00) hovering inside an 18 point range
ON activity is 100% net short. If price goes above LVN 4300, there might be a short covering rally followed by market turning back down at yesterday’s regular Lo, 4320
Price levels to watch
RTH Lo – 4320.25
LVN – 4300 ONL – 4379.25
Will try and take mostly shorts today.
If price rapidly breaks above 4300 and yesterday’s Lo in the first 30 mins, with strong positive order flow, I will start stalking the longs
Expected scenarios:
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
_My short term market state analysis was flawed. This led to all the losses initially, because I was basically entering against market direction
_I need to watch the ladder very very closely without missing even the smallest details. At times when I look away from ladder to see a chart my potential for opportunity reduces and losses increase
_If there is even a slightest sign of trade failing, exit without thinking too much.
Another red Heiken Ashi bar on the daily chart
Overlapping profiles for the last five days indicate market is currently in a long term range
Profile distribution yesterday was very thick. Participants seem to be undecided over a big range.
There was an uptrend in the second half of the ON session
If market comes back into yesterday’s regular hours range, it is likely to hover inside the range.
The only major news release at 9:00 CST is wholesale inventories. This normally is not expected to cause a big impact but will be worthwhile to notice.
I’m expecting the ON to liquidate around regular open causing to price to fall down.
My short term market outlook today is undecided.
Price levels to watch ATH – 4353.25 RTH Hi – 4322.75
RTH Lo – 4280
I will wait for the market to make its move this morning before taking any trades.
Will mostly try doing range extreme fades
If price moves swiftly above ATH with no signs of weakness or getting back in, I will start considering longs
If price moves swiftly below yesterday’s regular Lo, my outlook will change to short.
_Got completely run over today by continuously taking positions against market direction
_In the pre-market prep, I am setting a bias which psychologically fixes my mindset.
_This psychological fix is acting against my interests.
_It led me to completely ignore market internals which were screaming "GO LONG"
_On 7/8, I was biased short while the market moved in a range
_On 7/9, I was biased range, while the market was trending up.
_Many opportunities were missed
_What I'm trying to do is set a directional bias in the pre-market prep. In my view, this should absolutely not be done
_I decided, I will forego doing pre-market prep for a little while and see if that helps.
I think this is wise. Every time I have created a directional bias, especially in pre-market prep but actually at any time, it has killed me. (The prep may not be bad, if you're doing things like looking at possible important levels and so on. The bias, which is a pre-formed idea of how the market "will" go, has never worked well for me.)
It leads to valuing my bias more than the market, a very bad idea.
Good luck with going bias-less.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Futures monk " It led me to completely ignore market internals which were screaming "GO LONG""
Indeed there was no set up but longs. 2021-07-11_10-58-30 Friday Internals
My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
_Once again, attempted to go against uptrend
_In the second trade, averaging down did not help. On the contrary, potential for a huge loss was very high.
I got very lucky there.
