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62 wins
33 losses
95 total trades
$165945 gross win
$19035 gross loss
$118960 profit less fees/commission
47% win rate
8.7 profit factor
$1747 average win
$200 average loss
$1252 average trade
76 wins
39 losses
115 total trades
$186660 gross win
$23480 gross loss
$134300 profit less fees/commission
49% win rate
7.9 profit factor
$1614 average win
$204 average loss
$1167 average trade
90 wins
47 losses
137 total trades
$206960 gross win
$28270 gross loss
$146730 profit less fees/commission
48% win rate
7.3 profit factor
$1510 average win
$206 average loss
$1071 average trade
As of Monday, I started trading my Apex account again, this time I'm trading MNQ. Last week's forward test convinced me that I should proceed forward. So far, I've been faithful to test my strategy, but yesterday was challenging, and showed potential flaws in the strategy itself as well as my back testing. To the extent that these flaws will impact my endeavor remains to be seen. Yesterday we got this nice pop off the bottom to the upside on the one-hour chart.
The potential flaw is because the signal from the 1-hour chart printed before the 4-hour, I could not take this trade and per my strategy.
How this will affect things going forward remains to be seen. I'm not too worried by this, as the goal for me has been to create a strategy that is semi-automatic and discretionary. From this point forward I will be trading the strategy as is to the point that it either succeeds or fails so that I can either validate it or not.
That was the flaw I experienced when I had great manual backtests, but awful real time results, that I described earlier. That caused me to swear off manual backtesting forever.
It seems to me that when price breaks the high or low of the day in either a trend following directional move, a 2-2 continuation, or reverses, either 1-2, 3-2 or 2-2 on the daily chart, that these might be good trading opportunities, whereas when price stays inside the range of the previous day, not so much. So I have to ask myself, which side of yesterday is the NQ most likely to break today?
On the 15-minute we see this move starts with a 2-2 reversal that leads into a strong 2-2 continuation. I think that these are the trades that I am looking for. MY stop loss will be set ridiculously low (40 ticks) and then ride it out as long as can, possibly adding to each time we get a strong continuation from candle to candle- 2-2, very little wick.
So yesterday I speculated that we are likely to see a move as we the break high or low of the day. Yesterday we went 2-up- today we went 2-down, both were solid moves. I am now thinking that this will be my focus- the context that that I use to plan my trades from here on out. Here's what it looks like on the left monitor. I don't have time to fully explain it now. It's enough that I see it and understand it at this point.
The question then becomes how to trade the context. Risk has to be the first priority, I can't just yolo it all on these trades and expect to be consistent. I think I now have the answer. Here is my right monitor right now. This is Tick Hunter and Zombie Pack 9 running a 1000 tick chart. These are the trades that I should have made today, and plan on making in the near future. On the 1-hour chart we have confirmation of direction, which is reflected in the MA's on the tick chart. As I approach the LOD, anticipating the break, I turn on the auto pilot to filter zombies, and then sit back and just let it happen.
At this point the only thing I should be doing is looking to add to winners, and then get out of the market as soon as I've had a good day, or too bad of one. I'm not sure what that looks like right now, but I'm thinking that it will be centered around the Apex funded challenge.
Still working on finding out who I really am in regard to trading. Even when I am constantly switching methods and strategies the numbers are telling me that I can do this.
