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I took one trade today for a profit of $1850.00, which brings my total profit for the week to $11,237.50. the 10k was a goal that I was trying to hit. To have hit it in a week's time, or in so few trades actually surprised me, however. I think going forward, my goal after I pass my evaluation will be to try and hit 10K a week in 2 trades. This will be my personal gold standard for what I consider good trades, and good weeks.
Something new
Yesterday I changed the bar size on the Renko chart to 40 ticks a bar, from 1-point a bar to 10-points. I did this because what I want to do is better identify times and prices where I can expect the price to move at least 10 points. Personally I found the effects of this change both startling and welcome.
This is the last 7 days of price action in this format. Why I think this could be a significant improvement to strategy is how this chart clearly shows relevant levels and ranges, all while reducing noise. You have to keep in mind that I am initially targeting just one of these blocks. I'm hoping this, combined with everything else that I have been working on will continue to improve my trading.
I have to get back to bed here in a minute. There was more I wanted to note, especially about TTO and range expansion (triangles), but it will have to wait for another day. Sleep is more important right now, so I'll have to wrap this is by noting the MASSIVE TTO on the day, Look at those last 2 candles on the hourly chart. Thats a LOT of points, but you knew it was coming if you knew and understood the triangles and could have profited from it- biggly.
I wasn't able to participate in most of it because I was working night shifts, but it was fun to watch. When the ES flipped on Tuesday, it became a sellers market with an abundance of buying opportunities the rest of the week. My three favorites this week were Wednesday's massive TTO 2-2 reversal off the hammer candle from 4309 to 4351, Thursday's TTO 3-1-2 from 4359 to 4406, and Friday's you could have bought anywhere and made money. However, Friday's smart money trade came at 10:00 AM after seller's tested Thursday's 4406 high, and buyer's once again TTO'd all the way to 4465. Here's how it looks on the charts.
Higher Time frames for continuity
1-hour and 10-point charts for entries and projected ranges
My plan going forward remains the same. I'm now timing my entry into the Apex evaluation. The entry price is $165.00 for 30 days. Seeing as I work 4 day shifts next week I don't want to waste those day's, but I do need to be ready to go by Friday too, so I'm thinking that I'll make the switch over Tuesday or Wednesday. This should give me the time to make sure that everything is working correctly. I took the time this week to read the Apex thread here on Futures.io. It was about what I expected it to be. My over-all impression of it is that a lot of people get into these things without first understanding what's going on. I think that this is not exclusive to prop trading firms, but is common in the markets too. I know I am guilty of this too, however, I have now spent a year exploring the opportunities that these markets provide and I'm comfortable with the risks involved. I feel confidant at this point that I understand enough to test my thesis in this format.
For me, that's what this next step is about- testing myself and my strategy in the sandbox that the Apex funded trader evaluation provides. I imagine that there are those who are reading this that are sure that prop firms are a scam and that I'm over-leveraged, but I'm not sure, because I've never tested it for myself. Perhaps my greatest edge in life and trading is my imagination, the willingness to test ideas, to adopt those that are verifiable, and reject those that bear no fruit.
This would have been a banger of a week to trade. Alas, I had to work most of it. I did however take the time I was given and used it to start an Apex funded trader evaluation account. This means that I'm out of simulation-only trading and am officially on the road to eventual live trading. My next series of trades will take place in the new account. I'm pretty excited to test myself in this manner. I still have a little homework to do figuring out exactly how Apex tracks my trades and the live trailing drawdown, but other than that, I'm pretty much ready to go. Here's how I see the week shaping up on my charts.
The higher time frames are telling me that buyers are pushing this market higher long term, but this week it's been a struggle to do so. While Monday did trade relatively flat, Tuesdays up, Wednesdays down, and Thursdays up again. It's the directionality of these moves that I find so appealing and why I think that this week has been so tradable.
I can really this directionality well on my 40-tick Renko chart. Tuesday 60 points up, no red blocks. Wednesday 50 points down, no green blocks, and finally Thursday, 40 points up after a single red block test to the downside.
My long-term goal is to "capture" a couple of these blocks a week, but that's still something that I am working on. Right now, I am more focused on understanding the daily context and executing profitable trades so that I can pass this evaluation, and move on to the next step for me, and the next after that. All journeys and all plans are fulfilled in this manner.
I have no knowledge or experience with Apex, but my observation of other traders and other companies is that it is crucial to know exactly what the loss control rules are and not to run afoul of them. They often are not the same as the trader would use on their own, and it can be a sudden shock to find that you've broken one, when all that was needed was to have an appropriate stop or to otherwise exit. So be very clear about every rule.
Yes, they are. One step at a time.
Progress is good. Glad to see you moving ahead.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Might be worth your time to re-visit your successful trades to determine how, if you were then working within Apex's requirements, would that have effected the results. You may find that the trades you made would comfortably fit within their structure or you may discovers some modifications are necessary so that your past performance, although different, is still impressive. And then there is the other possibility... the back to the drawing board one.
Probably better to get this figured out before you start the evaluation so you can be confident you have realistic and informed expectations.
So I didn't trade it today in the evaluation, instead I went back to SIM to see how I might have performed. I don't know if that's good or bad. On one hand I would have passed the evaluation today, on the other, my first trade would have taken me within $87.00 of hitting the max trailing drawdown. Here's how it might have been.
I pleased with the result, but bummed I didn't take a chance. This is the kind of result that I am used to seeing for the last month or so, with continued improvement. So why wasn't I feeling it? Today the ES opened in a 20 point range around yesterday's high, so for me, the direction just wasn't there, so I SIM'ed instead. What I learned today is that this kind of market condition is tradeable, and what I am looking for is- in which direction is the next 10-point block going to print? However, to trade well takes confidence, and if I'm not confident, then the best answer is not to trade it.
All said and done I'm Ok with my decision not to trade it today. My time will come soon enough. I have the next week off to trade and with a little patience, perseverance and luck my block will print. There's a lot a man can learn in day, and do, but what's once done can't be undone, so patience is a must.
This is a price that I am watching this morning. Why? Because for the past 3 days the ES keeps visiting it. Will it do so again? Will the ES rotate around it again? For me, this chart shows best what I am talking about.
But that's not all. Look here are the 4-hour chart. Look at all the wicking around this level.
This is what is influencing my trading decisions this morning. My plan is always to best understand who is in control, and right now, it seems to me that while sellers have been in control, that right now, both sides seem equally matched. Friday showed me that I can trade this, but that requires knowing who is in control for the moment.
No more SIM for now
Right now, I'm in my evaluation account and will be until I either hit my profit target or bust it. I have all week to make a measly 7-points. I would like to get this done sooner than later, but I'd settle for just getting it done correctly. My fear is rooted in loss and failure, but what is lost, and what is failing? By staying in SIM now, I fail to move ahead and lose the opportunity to make real money in the future. So what do I fear more?
This is most likely all I need to be looking at to make good trading decisions. I missed the opportunity I was looking for today by looking at too many things. A note to myself- stick with 1 timeframe for a lower timeframe "decision-making" chart. I will try to stick with the 30-minute chart.
I took no trades today, but I did resist the temptation to SIM. Truthfully, I was done wore out watching the chart by 11:00 my time this morning, which is too bad, because the ES ripped upwards like a rocket after that. This has me thinking that tomorrow I'm not going to sit in front of my charts as much as I'm going to dip in and out, and if I see something that I like, I'll sit down, but not for too long. I think that in this way I can preserve some focus and clarity.
