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Today was some more back and forth, thankfully a little more forth than back. 3.5 points for the day, not great, but it marks the fourth day in a row that I ended in profit. Some highlights from the day- I started off making shit trades and payed the price. Mid session I was 8 points down, mostly because I became attached to a position because my bias was flat wrong. I could have cut it 5 points in profit and got back into the flow. Note to self- the market tells you what to do, not the other way around. Even with all that I was able to rally mid session, score a fat one all the way to 4400, which put me straight at the end. What I lost in profit I came away with in experience. Most notable is the usual- wait, be patient, practice discipline. I have all the right tools at this point, its just a matter of learning how to use them well. Its now just a matter of time before I put it together well enough to start accomplishing the mission, frankly its a lot further than I was last week.
There's some good trades here, there's some shit trades too. It's going to take some time to sort it out. I think the real question is- What kind of trader am I? I'm hoping to have that figured out soon. Towards that end my plan for next week is to really focus on identifying the trades that I want to take, and taking them at the earliest opportunity, and not taking trades when I'm either not sure what's going on, or those times that I outlined in my edge. Remember kids- Stay out of consolidation.
Weekly recap- Working through Fear.
I ended the week in profit. Not bad for a rookie. I was able to meet my minimum requirement of 10 points on the week. This first Trade performance is all 5 days of the week. I've included Monday here to illustrate to myself that yes, I can survive daily drawdown and live. In fact, on three of the 5 days that I traded this week I was in the red for a good portion of the session, but was able to trade through it into a modest profit on 2 of those days. I survived my bad trades this week, so there's nothing to be scared of. With more work I'll make more quality trades and less bad trades. But as of right now I have proof that the effort that I have put forward for the last 6 months is finally starting to show a result.
These are the results that I will be looking for in the future. This is this week minus Monday, which is before I knew how to trade- I'm only half kidding. A lot of pieces came together this week, and it shows in this trade performance. There is SO much room for improvement, but just like the last TP shows I can survive bad trades, this one shows that I can make quality trades on the daily.
Next Week
I work all week so I won't be able to trade because of work, but every chance I get I will be working somehow, some way to improve what I have accomplished so far.
Its what holds us back from most anything really. In regards to me and my trading this week-
Monday I made bad trades because I didn't understand what price was doing, but made trades anyway.
Tuesday and Wednesday I understood what price was doing quickly, and made good trades because of it.
Thursday and Friday, I didn't understand what price was doing at first, but traded anyway, made bad trades, but once I understood what price was doing I was able to make good trades that ended up covering for the bad trades.
The real take away from this week should be that waiting until I understand what price is doing tends to lead to making some pretty good trades, that trading when I don't understand what price is doing tends to lead to making bad trades, and that I can recover from making bad trades.
Its really that simple. I also tend to over complicate my best ideas.
Very good trading here. Next, consistency, which just takes practice.
I believe you're still trading in sim, correct? Sim can be very important to help you practice your game, but everything changes when you are live. I would not wait too long before going live, but not rush it either. There is a balance, and like everything it is different for different people.
These days have been really good, though. Great progress so far.
A very good statement of an "edge." Sometimes traders write in their journals things like, "I don't know if I have an edge," or "I don't know what an edge is", or "I don't think there is an edge." An edge is just something that makes you money. If you're not making money, well, that's what not having an edge is. It's really that simple, although it's not that easy to find one. Mind you, there are many possible edges besides what you have now, and you may end up with something different in time. But having identified one means you have something you can improve.
Other things may include
- Trader detachment ("I enter a trade, my exit is planned, everything that happens after this is OK.")
- Loss control ("Losses never get to grow too large'). This includes on a particular trade or for the day.
These are part of an edge too, in a way.
I'm really liking your progress, and I hope you continue to have success.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Everything that I am journaling about is a result of my first attempt ay trading, which was live, and not very profitable. I think that I've figured out why this happened, and am working through those issues. of which there seems to plenty. I am thinking about going live again as soon as I can verify last weeks live SIM results with either another weeks forward testing or a couple of weeks testing against market replay data. So- maybe in a couple weeks? I am looking forward to all this effort finally proving profitable, not only because my mission in life right now is becoming financially independent, but also to show people who said it cant be done, it could. I can only do that with real money.
I work 12 hour shifts on a 28 day rotation. This week I worked 4 day shifts, Monday thru Thursday. Friday was my only trading day. These where the only trades that I took this week, and I was still able to meet my weekly minimum target of 10 points.
This week showed the value of having a target to aim for, but knowing what your target is, is only valuable if you can hit that target accurately and consistently. This is my second week in a row of hitting my weekly target. What Direction? How far? That's what it boils down to. Get this right more often than not, and you'll be profitable.
Weekly Recap
This is the kind of performance I am working to achieve on a daily basis- which I did, but I envision 2-3 days a week like this, so that is my goal for next week- to rise above my weekly minimum.
I will have plenty of time to trade this week because this is the 7 days off portion of the 28 day rotation. In the last 2 weeks my trading performance has seen a dramatic increase. I want to capitalize on what is working. I'm thinking if this next week is as consistent as the last 2 weeks, I'll move to trading this way live on the MES 1 contract to start.
What is really working?
1. Having daily and weekly targets to hit, and personal quotas to fill. Its funny, but I get the feeling that not a lotta traders actually have these or think that they are important. Its Because I have daily targets and quotas that I force my self to take trades- quotas must be filled. That quota is 10 points for the week, and it must be filled, but the quota is a minimum value. I meet my quota by aiming for my daily target of 10 points a trading day. My goal in this approach is to meet or exceed expectations. 10 points/week will work, but 20 points would be better.
2. Trading in Expansion. My best trades so far happen when a strong, short-term trend is developing, I get into the trade early enough to place my stop loss at the swing high/low, and ride the trade out to a level where I expect price to change. Its possible that I might be able to achieve my trade goals making these kind of trades alone. The Key to finding these trades are to identify levels where price reacts and trading the reaction if its in the expected direction. The DM indicator is useful in confirming the initial bias, gauging the strength of the trend, and showing what kind of cycle price is in, i.e. expanding or contracting.
3. Staying out of Contraction. Just. Don't. OK? Please? No, really. My worse trades are in Contraction. This week my plan is to avoid it all together. Most of the time price is in some form of contraction and I can see that there are times it can be traded, its just that currently, I am shit at doing so, so for now, we will try to avoid it. The challenge is to identify when price is in contraction, i.e. poor structure, low ADX, little ranges, frequent DM crosses, and LOOK FOR AND WAIT FOR a sign that a new cycle is about to begin, because it will, it because it always has.
4. Making a schedule and sticking to it. This week I'm going to try to hit my targets and fill my quotas trading 7-9 AM Monday-Thursday this week. When I'm trading I'm going to try to really focus on the trading, so that when I'm not trading I don't have to think about what I should have done, or could have done.
This is exactly what I said I wasn't going to do. The price for not following my plan was total failure. The flaw in my trading isn't my plan, its my discipline. The sooner I sort that out, the sooner I can go live and make some money. This is what failure looks like.
Had this been the real deal I would be down 17 points in one day, which is unacceptable. The only thing consistent about my trading right now is that I have REALLY bad days followed by more good days that only lately make up for my losses.
I made a great trade today, now I'm only down 1 point on the week. Trading will become easier the more disciplined I become. Had I showed more reserve on Monday, today's performance would have something that I would have been proud of, but because I know that I'm not "there" yet, I will take today's win stoically and continue to grind my way towards profitability. The first 3 trades I made were clumsy, but I did figure it out in time to catch the big move back to 4400. I hit my profit target sooner than expected, or I would have managed this trade to greater profit.
Todays performance looks incredible until you factor in yesterday.
When you factor in yesterday...meh. Its probably still good enough to go live with, but I think there's just one last thing to do before I take that lest step. I think that thing is mainly rooted in discipline, and I think I will both know and feel that thing when I do it. I suspect I did just that today in trades 5-7. If I'm right, I should know more tomorrow.
I have been using the 30 minute time frame as my anchor, but today I switched to the 60 minute after noticing that in reality, the MES has been in a range for 8 days now. I didn't see it until I did. I took this trade here thinking price may hit the bottom of the range one more time.
Up until now I haven't really tried to trade anything other than "New York", but I feel that this is a really good set up. Currently I have my SL at break even, so really, its no risk. I would like for price to just drop real easy like for at least the next 10 points. Lets see what happens.
