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Trailer Park Capitol


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Trailer Park Capitol

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  #231 (permalink)
 michaelroth 
Gillette Wyoming
 
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
Michael,

I love your first long on that timeframe and the higher (look left!).

What caused you to close the long and enter the short where you did?

The short... was price approaching resistance? Or did you short it because you thought it would continue lower, or that it would "break" lower? Or was it a reverse because "man... my long isn't working and it sure looks like its about to break lower"?

Longs at support, shorts at resistance.

Good trading IS patience and waiting for the right spots.. why play with 72o when you could wait for a good hand?

Hey-

The truth is I was whip-sawed off this position and the cause was simply poor trading. My initial assessment of the trade was correct, if anything, I was in the trade early. I only took the second trade on the premise that if we weren't going up, we must be headed lower. By the time I cut the first and took the second, I was already disillusioned, I was "trapped". Perhaps a good policy for me would be to make my trades and turn off the screen until they have run their course.

There was a lot to remember just in these 2 losers. Its good stuff to work with for sure.

Day trading, so easy a caveman could do it.
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  #232 (permalink)
 TheTradeSlinger 
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michaelroth View Post
Hey-

The truth is I was whip-sawed off this position and the cause was simply poor trading. My initial assessment of the trade was correct, if anything, I was in the trade early. I only took the second trade on the premise that if we weren't going up, we must be headed lower. By the time I cut the first and took the second, I was already disillusioned, I was "trapped". Perhaps a good policy for me would be to make my trades and turn off the screen until they have run their course.

There was a lot to remember just in these 2 losers. Its good stuff to work with for sure.

Michael,

"Disillusioned, trapped"... we have all been there and you will continue to feel that even when you start making money at this, I am not sure if it ever goes away!

"Perhaps a good policy for me would be to make my trades and turn off the screen until they have run their course."

I struggled for the longest time with the issue of holding winning trades. I know exactly what you mean by turning off the monitors to force yourself to hold the trades longer.

Michael, let me offer this idea to help with that issue:

The next trade you take, set a target, have your stop in.. then, FORCE yourself to sit there and watch the price action all the way through, up or down, stop or limit. Force yourself to accept that you have no control at all over the market's movements, absolutely none. The only way to get better at this is to JUST DO IT (excuse me Nike!). There is no magical formula, no indicator, no pattern... it is simply training our animal brains to ACCEPT the movements of the markets.

I documented week after week of taking one or two tick profits due to this fear of holding trades... until the day I said no more and forced myself to get comfortable with holding trades simply by... HOLDING THE TRADE. The markets aren't out to get us, it exists only to facilitate trades, the markets and its movements cannot hurt us. When you place a trade.. let it ride.

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  #233 (permalink)
 glennts 
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This may help you stay in for more than a few ticks.

This 24Hr, 60 Min chart displays a modified version of anaIntradayRangesV12

Added to the original plot of the average range of X periods, the colored bars, are white bars showing the actual range and a black hash which marks half of the average range. Text shows the values of the average and the actual in ticks/cash. You will notice that although the actual range sometimes is less or more than the average... not surprising... but in every instance the half the average mark was reached and exceeded. If you can conclude that there is a > 98% probability that the price range withing a 60 min period will hit the hash you then can have a reasonable expectation of the potential move and incorporate that insight in your trade management. I use this on 180 min bars with good effect.

The caveat is this shows range but not direction so you need a method of determining when the Low or High of the time period you are applying this against has been put in place.


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  #234 (permalink)
 glennts 
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Here is an example from today of using the 180 min bar average range to manage a series of trades and to use the yet unfilled projection to justify getting long at 13:10 in expectation of the full range being reached.


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  #235 (permalink)
 glennts 
Corpus Christi, TX / Westcliffe, CO
 
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Ok, last post on this subject.

Left chart shows 180 Min bars with notation explaining the indicator parts.

I am using Global Variables to plot the indicator values on this and other charts.

Notice that as mentioned earlier, price reaching Half of the Average Range is as close to certain as one could ask... what isn't certain is the direction of price movement. Price can push up to hit the projected range or it can push down to hit the range. So you need to lean on whatever methods you use to identify trend to take advantage of this indicator.

Right chart shows 5 Min bars with the Global Variables displaying the Average Range projections. 8:30 and the start of the NY Session ( Chicago time) is the Open of the this 180 Min Bar period. After the Open pushes up into area of the Half Range projection... no surprise there. However above the projection there is a band of selling putting in Wicks on the 5 min bars. Notice on the right the Magenta MP and the location of the 60 Min POC just below the projection and the location of the 5 Min Bar POC ( Cyan box) on the 60 Min POC and that bar itself being rejected lower.

The second chart below shows what then followed.






The tricky aspect of using this indicator is recognizing what it is and what it is not telling you. It is information that has value only when used in conjunction with other methods to identify Trend, S/R and turning points. In practical terms, the certainty of the Half Range being hit gives you a place that might work well as an initial target on a multi contract trade... circling back to one of the themes of the thread.... how to stay in a trade for more than a few ticks.

If you want to play around with this PM me and I'll send the code modification ( NT7 ) for the excellent anaIntradayRanges.

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  #236 (permalink)
 michaelroth 
Gillette Wyoming
 
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3 days. 3 trades.

Today's trade hit for 10 points in less than 10 minutes, from the 15 minute chart. The rational for the trade was exhaustion exhibited at this level drawn in blue. Not sure who drew the line, but its been super active and long lived.



I'm still determining what makes a good entry, Today's trade was a prime example of what I'm looking to trade. The defining quality here was primarily momentum derived from the open of the new session. Just before the open I threw out my 1:1 10-point bracket and had it.

As usual I have a lot more to say about this and the 2 previous trades but most likely won't have the time to do so. All of this is a work in progress. This week, despite spending less time engaged with the market, I feel like I'm still moving forward. More later.

Day trading, so easy a caveman could do it.
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  #237 (permalink)
 michaelroth 
Gillette Wyoming
 
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2 T-ball trades in a row

Today's trade was taken from the 15-minute chart, the rationale was previous support at the daily open. When price came back to the level and selling pressure waned, I bought it right before the NY open and used the momentum to capture these profits.



Once again I was in just a little too early, but this one worked out. I don't imagine this momentum trick at the open works all the time, but for the past 2 days it did great. What all this is highlighting for me is more about the levels. More and more I am becoming convinced that price does in fact respect levels. Just today you see that respect exhibited several times. I took today's trade based on this, but levels are just one part of the puzzle. The real trick is putting everything together and becoming profitable.

Day trading, so easy a caveman could do it.
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  #238 (permalink)
 TheTradeSlinger 
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michaelroth View Post
What all this is highlighting for me is more about the levels. More and more I am becoming convinced that price does in fact respect levels. Just today you see that respect exhibited several times. I took today's trade based on this, but levels are just one part of the puzzle. The real trick is putting everything together and becoming profitable.



YES! Keep fighting Michael, you are starting to really see the levels.

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