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This is yesterday New York cash session. These trades didn't follow the rules of the strategy, but did use the logic and made complete sense in when I was looking at the higher time frame chart. I'm not including them in the stats.
This is how we were looking on the m60 for the day.
I think I could have avoided it, but the task here is to just get the raw, real data so I can really understand just how good or bad the strategy really works. here is how its looking yesterday cash session and last night on the ES. I don't have time today for the NQ.
There's a lot of good happening on this chart. The second trade of the day is in the cash session and just has so much confluence. It will be interesting to see if I am able to trade this in real time. Might be able to find out tomorrow. Now that I am tracking the strategy I am able to see that its possible to automate some or all of this. I have been down this road before and kind of thought it to be a dead end for me, but now I'm not so sure. I might be able to throw a little something together this week, might be able to test it some.
Trade it like you test it. If its not long term profitable, I'm not interested.
None of these trades followed the rule of the strategy
But they're all good trades. They're good because they follow the logic behind the strategy- just not the rules. Here on the ES I see this beautiful head and shoulders form as price rejects off the bottom of the 50 before quickly dropping. The problem strategy wise is that RSI doesn't rise high enough to initiate the trade.
Its the same here on the NQ. In each of these trades that make sense by the same logic employed by the strategy, they fail to follow the rules. The first 2 are too low on the ADX, the second 2 are on the wrong side of 50 SMA .
I don't know why we just put in these big bear bars. My guess is that it's news related. Knowing how the news is affecting the market is something that I have to work on.
Right now I wouldn't take any of these trades, but its good to know they're there and why. Right now I'm only interested in how this strategy is is performing and figuring out a way to use it- which is probably going to be automated. I have the time this week. I know how I might be able to get it done in the strategy builder, so that's the plan right now.
Fun fact- the OLHC on the m60 IS the last candle on the daily chart. I learned that last night and do not wish to forget.
I took a small break from my trading endeavor last week, not only from trading, but from most things non essential. It was good, but I'm back at it this week. The goal here as always is freedom, financial and otherwise. How I go about that is all me and therefore unique. I don't think that there are a lot of people that will "get" how I go about this, and that's OK. This too is something that I don't wish to forget.
What I was doing before the break was taking one last look at NinjaTrader's strategy builder. My final verdict here is that it's too limited to accomplish what I want it to do. If I want the functionality that I'm looking for I'm going to have to use something like Shark Indicators Bloodhound and Blackbird.
The reason I've moved this direction is I wish to remove as much subjectivity from my trading as possible, and I want to be able to rigorously test strategy. Speaking of strategy, I've been really looking for one. Last night I stumbled on something that I'm excited to look farther into. I think it's fun and quirky that found it on Halloween.
This is what I am now working on- trying to better understand what's really happening. This new understanding has lead me to think something like- it's a new month AND a new week, therefore it's no wonder why today did what it did, which is why neither buyers or sellers "won". October ended up being really good for buyer's. I'm now sure there is a reason for this that financial types know all about and seasoned traders who know were able to take advantage of it, No worries, I'll get there. It makes sense that last week was also good for Bulls- it was a bull week in a bull month. As I continue to drill down further I am now able to apply the range from the daily. I am just now beginning to understand how this is useful and in turn the more I use it, the more it might proves to be useful. Finally I arrive at the 5 minute chart with a better understanding of how we got here. The real question for me now is, knowing all this, can I make better trades?
I think so, but I'm just getting started, so we'll see. I can now see that by just using price action alone I can see who's been aggressive, buyers or sellers. By looking at multiple time frames I can gauge not only how aggressive they were by the ranges, but for how long. All this seems like it might be incredibly useful stuff to know, but like I said, I'm just scratching the surface here.
I feel like I'm on the right track with this, but for me its not what I feel trading, or even what I think, but only what I can prove, so that's what I plan to do. This week I'm working nights all week, so it's not like I can trade, but even if I could, not sure I would. A lot of this new stuff is the result of looking into strategies. Last night I stumbled on #thestrat and after watching 8 hours of YouTube on it decided it might be something to look into. So far I like what I see, but like I said, it's about what I can prove.
This is why I need Bloodhound. I would buy it and Blackbird today, right now, but Christmas is coming up and I can't fully justify spending $1995.00 right now- but I really want it. I need it.
Maybe in the future I will go back through this journal and this will be the post that I identify as when it all came together for me. Maybe this is just another dead end, but my gut is telling me this is good. For the past couple of days I've been looking into Rob Smith's strategy. I'm looking forward to testing it out.
Just got home from night shift, I'm tired, like really tired. I spent all night thinking about what to do next. I need a plan, short term and longer. I'm now sure that I want to start using Bloodhound and Blackbird. The good thing is that Shark Indicators is having a Black Friday sale- $1495.00 saves me $500. So the plan right now is to get rolling on the free demo. I think I can put something together that will impress Barb enough to ok the purchase before the end of the month. I can probably get this part done today. I have a lot of good pieces to work with. I'm not sure how they all fit together, but I'm sure I'll figure it out. This is how the chart looks today. I'm starting to really appreciate "higher time-frame continuity" because for the first time in my trading I'm starting to be able to truly gauge which direction price is moving.
