Many brilliant traders who have made millions have lost it all and then some. At just over 1 month trading the ES, you've done a great job. But as they say, making money in trading is easy, keeping it is what's hard. I think you did exactly what you're supposed to do--you made money, you extracted it, and now it's yours. That's what trading is about. The ability to adapt to a variety of market conditions really defines a trader. As you see more varied market conditions over more months and years, your ability to adapt will be the key determinant of your success. Best to you!
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Since 4195 is right at the boundary of a standard deviation implied by the Friday weeklies it's certainly a possibility. But, we had a good liquidation break yesterday that was as transient as ever, so a catalyst will be all but required to see anything sub 4200 before FOMC next week. The one thing that might do it is a super hot CPI print tomorrow morning. It's one of the biggest data points in recent times, so anything much higher than a half percent like last time is likely to create a stir. Also, ECB presser at the same time, so could be an interesting morning.
Otherwise, until the risk rolls off dealer books next Friday the 18th, the mechanical flows are likely to continue to keep us pinned to a 4200-4250 range.
Of course, remaining flexible and adaptable is always most important. As always with markets, expect the unexpected.
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Nice job! Very well executed so far.
As I understand correctly, you do not use any indicators and rely on merely gut feeling and stay away during big news?
