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Going Toe to Toe with the MNQ...


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Going Toe to Toe with the MNQ...

  #51 (permalink)
 Cutloss 
Midway florida
 
Posts: 243 since May 2021

I am not a predictor but I do anticipate and i am far from greedy. I have learned the hard way that if they give it to me i take it and if it jumps 10 or 20 points without me then so be it. it used to bug the crap out of me because i always feel like when i click exit on a long.. it just screams higher on my 1 lot sell and it is possible. that the entity that took the other side of my trade.. said well this guy is usually
one of the last ones out.. so buyem hard now.. you never know but i do know this.. due to how quickly the hft can clear your trade they actually know you are filled before you do and they counteract your trade.

not kidding that is truth and that actually is FRONT running of sorts. let me look at your entry

but before i do that you must have very solid reasons to hold and hold and not fold. personally i think you are and were on the wrong side of the NQ. this is not the market to short right now and shorting i much harder in my opinion. it is easier once it starts working because the mkt falls faster but it takes so much for that sell off to finally happen if you are early.

due to option expiration we could get an end of day sell off and a 3 day weekend but it is very risky to hold onto those lots into the close. especially after yesterdays close mayhem .

im checking your entry now. tell ya what i think and what i think is not right for you or anyone else ok.. it is just what i think for me.

i could give you my system and you wouldnt be able to see what i see or do what i do and i do not mean that in a negative way lke you cant handle it i just mean
with trading so much of it can be subjective even if a somewhat mechanical system.


i will tell you this again if you keep struggling daily and you are not changin anything up then you need to stop trading and just watch the mkt like a movie. no stress. just relax and enjoy it and watch how it moves all day no demo just enjoy what it does. that will bring you closer to understanding in than anything else in my opinion.

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  #52 (permalink)
 Cutloss 
Midway florida
 
Posts: 243 since May 2021

i see a couple times that the nq hit your 13704 did you trade it and sell early like 9.34 or 9.50 or 10.27 NY? those were the times so i wonder..
if you had a chance or a couple of them to exit your bad trade once it came almost to your price or beyon your price with a small profit.

those micros are no joke and you must treat them like the minis or the bigs because if you disrespect what they are to you in the future then you will form very bad habits.

hindsight bias makes telling you what i would have done not very relevant because i can see clearly what happened but what i can tell you is that based on the close yesterday and a
long weekend and optiosn out the kazoo and AMC running like crazy that there is a speculative FOMO right out of the gate and if not successful in the afternoon then do not trade the first 20 minutes where big loses will accrue and your entire day will be shot due to your on tilt. the pros love this!! they want you like that all day everyday.

i dont think you meant to hold this short. that was not your plan. i thin kyou need more pre game prep. entry exit etc.


more self talk like am i following basic strategy.. am in over my head. am i telling myself i dont want to lose. am i tellign myelf i will be proved right?

take the loss now. just exit the loss now and see how great your friday and long weekend will be. just chill and dont take on the mightiest of the indexes. stick with the dow micro
the dow micro is way more forgiving than the nasdaq. i am not saying the mkt cant sell off or wont for you but learn from it.

make changes. have a great weekend.

if i was stuggling i would never trade the 1st half hour or the nasdaq. just my 2 cents and you need a very very good reason to hold all day. you must be somewhat on the correct side to hold all day.. and this mkt is still bullish no one said it was bear. sure there is bubble talk for good reason but until that happens.. RISK IS ON!!

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  #53 (permalink)
 Cutloss 
Midway florida
 
Posts: 243 since May 2021


draw a trendline onthis sell off right nwo in the nq and if it gets broke take your loss

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  #54 (permalink)
 
Sandpaddict's Avatar
 Sandpaddict 
Vancouver, Canada
 
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Cutloss View Post
i see a couple times that the nq hit your 13704 did you trade it and sell early like 9.34 or 9.50 or 10.27 NY? those were the times so i wonder..
if you had a chance or a couple of them to exit your bad trade once it came almost to your price or beyon your price with a small profit.

those micros are no joke and you must treat them like the minis or the bigs because if you disrespect what they are to you in the future then you will form very bad habits.

hindsight bias makes telling you what i would have done not very relevant because i can see clearly what happened but what i can tell you is that based on the close yesterday and a
long weekend and optiosn out the kazoo and AMC running like crazy that there is a speculative FOMO right out of the gate and if not successful in the afternoon then do not trade the first 20 minutes where big loses will accrue and your entire day will be shot due to your on tilt. the pros love this!! they want you like that all day everyday.

i dont think you meant to hold this short. that was not your plan. i thin kyou need more pre game prep. entry exit etc.


more self talk like am i following basic strategy.. am in over my head. am i telling myself i dont want to lose. am i tellign myelf i will be proved right?

take the loss now. just exit the loss now and see how great your friday and long weekend will be. just chill and dont take on the mightiest of the indexes. stick with the dow micro
the dow micro is way more forgiving than the nasdaq. i am not saying the mkt cant sell off or wont for you but learn from it.

make changes. have a great weekend.

if i was stuggling i would never trade the 1st half hour or the nasdaq. just my 2 cents and you need a very very good reason to hold all day. you must be somewhat on the correct side to hold all day.. and this mkt is still bullish no one said it was bear. sure there is bubble talk for good reason but until that happens.. RISK IS ON!!

I agree with you mostly but there are definitely things we see differently.

The main difference I see is no trade, day, or week of trades means anything. I don't think you can EVER learn from trades. You ONLY learn and I mean ONLY learn from your reactions and your discipline to trade your plan.

You are definitely right I need to get in the right head space or don't trade. And yes with only 4 contracts and scaling only one position at a time I lost $1800 in ONE DAY on the MNQ. Pretty fuckin impressive if you ask me!?!!

But I like it and am going to focus on it. If I can loose $1800 a day with only 4 contracts there is money to be made!

I don't think well EVER "figure" this out sort of speak but we have to know our boundaries and I've found one of mine for sure.

To me defining where to take stops is the worst thing in the world... Worse than I think I know what a "good entry" is.

Did I mention I think stops are the reason most people loose and hence fail. Yes they slow the bleeding but they also GIVE FALSE CONFIDENCE.

I'm my mind I WISH I COULD... enter where I want to stop out.

Here's what I mean...

What do I do at... "Right now"?

Exit? Add? Lighten up position? Beat myself up for not exiting the clearly huge bull move?

See what I mean?

There IS NO RIGHT MOVE HERE!!!! NONE! WHY? Because we don't know the future... is my decision NOW right or wrong only base on the future results? That's asinine? Oh course NOT!?!!

So what's the answer? To me it's DISCRETION. It's ADAPTABILITY. It's discipline to NOT stop out at the top... if that's even the top?

More questions than answers @Cutloss. Loving the discussion. Absolutely loving it!

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  #55 (permalink)
 Cutloss 
Midway florida
 
Posts: 243 since May 2021

that chart you posted is exactly what i have done so many times and if people on this site are honest with themselves they have too!
you dont know the future all you can control is your entry and your exit and teh exit can be a loss or a profit.

why did i forego an 8 dollar net profit after waiting an hour in the es micro today? beacause i was going to be rigth or i just dont care and guess what i ended up caring because they got me they took over 4 % o fmy gains!! aword of advice... dont just scale for no reason have parameters!

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  #56 (permalink)
 
Sandpaddict's Avatar
 Sandpaddict 
Vancouver, Canada
 
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Cutloss View Post
that chart you posted is exactly what i have done so many times and if people on this site are honest with themselves they have too!
you dont know the future all you can control is your entry and your exit and teh exit can be a loss or a profit.

why did i forego an 8 dollar net profit after waiting an hour in the es micro today? beacause i was going to be rigth or i just dont care and guess what i ended up caring because they got me they took over 4 % o fmy gains!! aword of advice... dont just scale for no reason have parameters!

I do my... "my parameters" are MAX contract size.

That gives me totally flexibly within my framework to trade but limits my exposure.

Thank you.

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  #57 (permalink)
 
Sandpaddict's Avatar
 Sandpaddict 
Vancouver, Canada
 
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(I wrote this to some else but really it's basically what I was going to post here)

I'm serious considering calling it quits. I cannot see myself making this work.

I am drawn to bouts of thinking only people like Mike Reed (RIP) and Lance Beggs and inversely Al Books styles work yet my mind believes you cannot predict, yet... my incredible losses SHOW ME WITH ABSOLUTE CLARITY that I'm the problem and making/loosing is two side of the same coin.

I studied my LOSES and that's how I formulated my strategy BUT I do not have the patience, discipline and clarity anymore, probably never did. That's obvious now. I have to face the facts sooner or later.

I lost $1800 in one day trading one contract at a time with a max of 4 on the MNQ. That is impressive!!! VERY VERY impressive.

Turn those around and even with commissions and that would have been a record breaking day for me.

So why cant it be? ME. That's why. I'm not ready to do that. That's clear because if I was I'd be doing it.

I need to go back to drawing board and have a better plan if I'm going to keep going.

Entries are related to exits. Profits are related to losses. So it's ALL RELATIVE... so until I can hold for huge runners or CONSTANTLY larger profits then losses there is no point playing this game.

So yesterday WORKED in my favor and it's what I ment about NOT panicking out yet even though this ended up being a profitable move was it a good one? By a sharpe/SQN standard? OMG NO. Lol.

Really not sure anymore. I would like to say yes, but was it really? Stopping out at top would NOT have been good either?

I'm proud of myself here but should I be?

Back to the research stage! (-X-%100!-X-) With ONE micro.

(-X-NO live trading.-X-) Not going to do that lol.

What I AM going to to is the SMALLEST POSSIBLE POSITION size. I know by experience sim doesn't have the same decision crippling effects. So trade the "don't care size" according to Brooks might be a better bet.

I need more structure. As in more precise rules to limit losses in RELATION to wins.

Study MFE and MAE.

Seems I'm a master at the MAE sometimes! Study those!

As well, my issue is as much, if not MORE is where to take profits vs stops.

Stops are usually stationary I usually end up taking profits as the markets retracing. That in itself is counterproductive.

These are the kind of things I'm going to look at and test.

(-X-NO live trading until CONSISTENTLY profitable on SIM.-X-)

ONE RULE: ABSOLUTELY NO MORE than ONE micro contract till profitable with one.

Simple. And only ONE GOAL...

Consistently profitable using ONE micro contract (-X-simming USING the strategy you will go live with.-X-) only then adding!Netted around + $44 on this short trade... but was it the right thing to do?
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  #58 (permalink)
 
rahulgopi's Avatar
 rahulgopi 
milpitas, ca, usa
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I deleted my post earlier thinking it might confuse you more. It is true that we cannot predict the future, we are not in control of the outcome of our actions. Bhagavat Gita talks about Selfless Action, act without getting attached to the result. Yet mind wont agree to any of these, ego (idea of an individual identity, the I thought ) thinks that it is in control, life becomes a struggle to manipulate the next moment in its favor, while completely missing this moment, NOW, which is all we have.

Yet we trade, is it pure gambling (random) like playing a slot machine ? or is there some structure to the underlying collective human tendencies that make up the market ?. Human mind is bound by habit and tendencies, even thou you could do any random action given a situation, your reaction will be almost predictable or there is a higher probability that you might act in a certain way. Civilization is a very thin veneer on top of the animal, survival instincts kick in and override rational thinking when threatened. As we consciously evolve, the influence of this override can be managed as shown by many great human beings.

You may not be able to make a prediction whether it is going to rain today but as you notice clouds forming and wind picking up, you could predict the PROBABILITY of the event happening. If the probability is more than 50%, you carry an umbrella when you go out.

There are different ways to organize enormous market data, so that we can put some structure around it, organize it and make sense out of it. Most popular ones being Volume , Price and Time. Some form of context and structure is required so that we can interact with the data. There is no right or wrong way to look at it, you build your model and gain confidence by backtesting and using it.

I will leave you with an NQ chart from Friday just as an e.g. and how I look at it . why high volume showed up when price broke out at 1 ? , again at 2 and why price stopped at 3 ? Is this completely random or is there enough probability to sell market at 3 ?. Is there additional context to increase or decrease the probability of that trade ?. If you did enter, what should be the profit targets ?. which point you consider trade failed and exit ?. The context and structure I use should be able to answer all the above questions.


NQ

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  #59 (permalink)
 
MrMojoRisin's Avatar
 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
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Sandpaddict View Post
(I wrote this to some else but really it's basically what I was going to post here)

I'm serious considering calling it quits. I cannot see myself making this work.

I am drawn to bouts of thinking only people like Mike Reed (RIP) and Lance Beggs and inversely Al Books styles work yet my mind believes you cannot predict, yet... my incredible losses SHOW ME WITH ABSOLUTE CLARITY that I'm the problem and making/loosing is two side of the same coin.

I studied my LOSES and that's how I formulated my strategy BUT I do not have the patience, discipline and clarity anymore, probably never did. That's obvious now. I have to face the facts sooner or later.

I lost $1800 in one day trading one contract at a time with a max of 4 on the MNQ. That is impressive!!! VERY VERY impressive.

Turn those around and even with commissions and that would have been a record breaking day for me.

So why cant it be? ME. That's why. I'm not ready to do that. That's clear because if I was I'd be doing it.

I need to go back to drawing board and have a better plan if I'm going to keep going.

Entries are related to exits. Profits are related to losses. So it's ALL RELATIVE... so until I can hold for huge runners or CONSTANTLY larger profits then losses there is no point playing this game.

So yesterday WORKED in my favor and it's what I ment about NOT panicking out yet even though this ended up being a profitable move was it a good one? By a sharpe/SQN standard? OMG NO. Lol.

Really not sure anymore. I would like to say yes, but was it really? Stopping out at top would NOT have been good either?

I'm proud of myself here but should I be?

Back to the research stage! %100!

NO live trading.

Need more structure. As in more precise rules to limit losses in RELATION to wins.

Study MFE and MAE.

Seems I'm a master at the MAE sometimes! Study those!

As well, my issue is as much, if not MORE is where to take profits vs stops.

Stops are usually stationary I usually end up taking profits as the markets retracing. That in itself is counterproductive.

These are the kind of things I'm going to look at and test.

One RULE... NO live trading until CONSISTENTLY profitable on SIM.

Simple. And only ONE GOAL...

Consistently profitable simming USING the strategy you will go live with.Attachment 313389Netted around + $44 on this short trade... but was it the right thing to do?
Sent using the NexusFi mobile app


I can't help myself, but I think you're sabotaging yourself for some reason you have to find out and resolve!
Look at the people that you surround yourself the most with and try to do that in an unbiased, objective way.
I've heard of people that divorced their wife or moved in other states to get away from their family, for trading. I've actually also cut contact nearly to zero to most of my family-members a few week ago and am really thinking about how to go on with that.
There are people that don't want you to succeed. They may not say it, but they act in a way towards you, that you just can't get into the right mindset for trading.

There's a good story about that:

Think of a cage full of monkeys that are screaming and running around like crazy all the time. Then one day, one monkey stops and looks up in the air and sees that the cage is actually open to the upside.
He goes to the railings of the cage and starts to climb up. The other monkeys, instead of asking him what he's doing, are grabbing his feet and pulling him back down again. Then they are continuing running around shrieking and screaming like they always did.

People that see you climbing up start the craziest manipulative tactics and they are very hard to identify at times. They tryin' to make you feel guilty, make you feel bad about yourself and blackmail you emotionally.
I think as long as one hasn't come clean with all that stuff, and got rid of those type of people, it's almost impossible to get consistently profitable.


There are those stories of people who became successful and "forgot their family and old friends". If they hadn't "forgotten" them, they could have never become successful in the first place.

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  #60 (permalink)
 
Sandpaddict's Avatar
 Sandpaddict 
Vancouver, Canada
 
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rahulgopi View Post
It is true that we cannot predict the future, we are not in control of the outcome of our actions. Bhagavat Gita talks about Selfless Action, act without getting attached to the result. Yet mind wont agree to any of these, ego (idea of an individual identity, the I thought ) thinks that it is in control, life becomes a struggle to manipulate the next moment in its favor, while completely missing this moment, NOW, which is all we have.

True on so many levels. The more we try to force things the more it repels in this case.

This reminds me of FLOW.

"FLOW" as defined by the book by the same name is "being completely*involved in an acitivty for its own sake.*The ego falls away. Every action, movement, and thought follows inevitably from the previous one, like playing jazz. Your whole being is involved, and you’re using your skills to the utmost."

Trading fits the bill TO THE TEE for an activity that checks all the boxes to have access to one the MOST PLEASURE EXPERIENCES KNOWN TO MAN!

Here are SOME characteristics of FLOW...

A challenge that makes you use all your skills.*If the challenge demands the highest level of your skills, it’s very likely you’ll start to flow. (As long ad your level of skill is matched to the task)

Focus and concentration.*In a flow state, your focus is so centered that the world and your ego completely DISAPPEAR. Your whole being focuses on one thing, and you enter an extreme state of*concentration.

Clearly defined goals.*Csikszentmihaly, the author, found that we get more enjoyment out of things when we have clear goals. If they’re vague or unclear, your attention will fade.

Direct, immediate feedback.*People need to get short-term feedback to reinforce their behavior. Feeling like you’re on the right track adds intensity to your experience and the feedback let's you know if your still on trackmot not.

Exclusion of other information.*In a state of flow, there’s no room for information unrelated to the activity at hand. Focus is all encompassing.

A feeling of control.*When you’re flowing, you feel very in control of what’s happening. One thing leads nicely to the next and you have a feeling of confidence in your abilities.

You lose your sense of self-awareness.*In these kinds of states, it’s almost like your sense of self has completely disappeared. No ego. No self. Just focused concentration. Like a watching a world class performer "in the zone".

There is a shift in your perception of time.*Experiencing this state gives you the feeling that time has compressed. Three hours will feel like 30 seconds in a state of flow.

Ect...

I've been OUT OF FLOW for a bit now!
rahulgopi View Post
Yet we trade, is it pure gambling (random) like playing a slot machine ? or is there some structure to the underlying collective human tendencies that make up the market ?. Human mind is bound by habit and tendencies, even thou you could do any random action given a situation, your reaction will be almost predictable or there is a higher probability that you might act in a certain way. Civilization is a very thin veneer on top of the animal, survival instincts kick in and override rational thinking when threatened. As we consciously evolve, the influence of this override can be managed as shown by many great human beings.

Ah man this is GOLD!

Yeup agree %100!

To me the market is the aggregation of all trades and traders... that is the structure. It actually HAPPENED. But there is absolutely no way to know what everyone or almost anyone for that mater is doing but yes I agree we take ques from the charts and try to place bets.
rahulgopi View Post
You may not be able to make a prediction whether it is going to rain today but as you notice clouds forming and wind picking up, you could predict the PROBABILITY of the event happening. If the probability is more than 50%, you carry an umbrella when you go out.

This is PROBABLY the best analogy to trading probability I've ever heard!
rahulgopi View Post
There are different ways to organize enormous market data, so that we can put some structure around it, organize it and make sense out of it. Most popular ones being Volume , Price and Time. Some form of context and structure is required so that we can interact with the data. There is no right or wrong way to look at it, you build your model and gain confidence by backtesting and using it.

Once again I can't agree with you more. One big isssue for me is I'm a discretionary trader so backtesting in the traditional sense only goes so far. I do forward test on sim using a sample of data then test on different data samples but even that only goes so far.

Unfortunately I'm not even trading the way I should for the most part right now. I have to fix that.
rahulgopi View Post
I will leave you with an NQ chart from Friday just as an e.g. and how I look at it . why high volume showed up when price broke out at 1 ? , again at 2 and why price stopped at 3 ? Is this completely random or is there enough probability to sell market at 3 ?. Is there additional context to increase or decrease the probability of that trade ?. If you did enter, what should be the profit targets ?. which point you consider trade failed and exit ?. The context and structure I use should be able to answer all the above questions.

Here I agree to a point. It can stop out at the worst time too.

Thank you for all your input @rahulgopi. It's great stuff!!!
rahulgopi View Post
NQ

Your charts line up with mine and you can see what I did.

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