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Journey aboard the Heart of Gold


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Journey aboard the Heart of Gold

  #51 (permalink)
 
MNSTrading's Avatar
 MNSTrading 
Grand Rapids, Michigan
 
Experience: None
Trading: Commodities and Russell
Posts: 158 since Nov 2015
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Ok, scratch the last plan, after scalping for a few days, I realized what I really need to do is just continue trend trading but get out of winning low value trades when the opportunity is murky. Today for example, I had a good start on a Russell short from yesterday but it touched the moving average on the daily chart and bounced, that puts it back to neutral in my book.

Tried to get a long on the yen, didnt work out so trying again today. I think it will stay in the downward cycle, but go up at least for a day or two. Completely missed the gold sell off as i was doing 15 things at once this week.

Mother in law comes tonight for 4 days, wish me luck.


cat horrified

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  #52 (permalink)
 
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 Daytrader999 
Ilsede, Germany
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MNSTrading View Post
Mother in law comes tonight for 4 days, wish me luck.

Be assured, you have my full compassion!

"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
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  #53 (permalink)
 
MNSTrading's Avatar
 MNSTrading 
Grand Rapids, Michigan
 
Experience: None
Trading: Commodities and Russell
Posts: 158 since Nov 2015
Thanks Given: 59
Thanks Received: 336


A very good day today. Once the Russell dropped below the moving average it was a straight ride down. It now sits at 2.4% down for the day and I'm out for the weekend. I do have a small position in VXX the volatility ETF. I don't understand the math of volatility. I know it has something to do with averaging prices of out of the money calls and the formula is beyond my math skills but ideally it should spike sharply in both downward and upward movements as long as its not a gradual movement?

In any case when it spikes it can reach ridiculous values. The ETF sits at $34 per share right now but went up to $300 when covid happened. Good on those who started selling at the top! So I have traded the VIX off and on but am by no means a volatility expert. I can say that volatility seems to beget more of it. I will keep that position into next week and see where we go. Today was a 10% rise at the top.

I'm still annoyed at the miss in gold, but those kinds of days, where you barely have time to look at the market, they happen, for me anyway.

Have a great weekend!


bignbong

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  #54 (permalink)
 
MNSTrading's Avatar
 MNSTrading 
Grand Rapids, Michigan
 
Experience: None
Trading: Commodities and Russell
Posts: 158 since Nov 2015
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The correlations

Somewhere, on this great webiverse, there is a website that will tell you what markets have been historically correlated over x time period. I looked at it a long time ago before I realized that information beyond a certain date does nothing for you. It is like the old newspapers my dad would collect, with more recent piles scattered through the dining room and den. and then the archive, the treasure trove of arbitrary papers from random dates that he hoped to read at some future points.

But something I understood very strongly from the "Remembrances of a Stock Operator" is that you have to see the information as it comes out, without all the bias. They didn't have much in the way of technical bias at the time, "chartists" were ridiculed by other traders, so the bias was based on both fundamental information or the character deficiencies in the trader, the central theme of the book.

As I understood it from the book, there were two main points to accomplish, point one; learn to read a tape. I think the author was probably 12 or 14 when he started so he had plenty of opportunity to learn in the bucket shop. The modern day bucket shop is options, you pay your ticket and it goes to the moon or expires worthless. A really excellent invention, takes care of stops.

The second point is build a position. In those days you could actually corner a market, the volume was low enough, then you just name your price.

"Hey Bill $10 for that bucket of corn, only price in town"
"The deuce you say Reginald! I'll just eat beans."

I don't think you can corner a market anymore. If you would like to try, have at it, post how it goes. but the second part is the hard part, build a position because of the drawdown, which becomes massive as the position grows. What do you do when the drawdown comes? Get out? no. you scoped out this position and if it seems at all viable you'll try and do it. Those are the game shows we love to watch right? where the contestant goes for the big prize? So that is where I find myself today. The drawdown hurts, but the position is still viable, either way I planned my trade and traded my plan. They say to do that right?

So lets find out how the rebound on the Russell resolves, so far decent strength, but nowhere near to where I would strongly consider an upside reversal yet. Let's see what the afternoon session brings.

Coming, they can't be denied. Going, they can't be detained.
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  #55 (permalink)
 
MNSTrading's Avatar
 MNSTrading 
Grand Rapids, Michigan
 
Experience: None
Trading: Commodities and Russell
Posts: 158 since Nov 2015
Thanks Given: 59
Thanks Received: 336

so now we see who comes to the american market lunch counter in the afternoon.

Could it be Abe Froman, The Sausage King of Chicago?


giphy

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  #56 (permalink)
 
MNSTrading's Avatar
 MNSTrading 
Grand Rapids, Michigan
 
Experience: None
Trading: Commodities and Russell
Posts: 158 since Nov 2015
Thanks Given: 59
Thanks Received: 336

Signals.


200



Signals are great. The little rush of dopamine you get when you see your signal flash? It's like your favorite song suddenly on the radio, or getting a like as soon as you post a thing. So the question becomes how many signals do you want to take? Sure you get that rush but at what cost?

A chessmaster consumes 5-6,ooo calories in a high stakes match so that is the caloric cost of a volutile day but also the dopamine crash. In Beau Lotto's book, "Deviate" he talks about his infant son who was in a swing looking at plushy toys floating in space. Cool right? How do they even float like that, he wonders" but after a long while of joy and awe, he starts crying, so dad starts the toys moving again. Kid cries even harder. Dad realized (his background is in neuroscience) that his son was crying because he COULD NOT LOOK AWAY from the toys. He tried but it pulled him back. He had lost agency and it hurt.

So the phone in your hand each day, is it any different than the toys? Doing 200 trades in a day? You try to look away but you cant.

Too many signals is not good I think. You enter on a signal, you add on a signal, otherwise the trade goes on your direction until stopped out. Hopefully its a good long ride and not some around the block bullshit.

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