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Airgeadllc - Order Flow Financials


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Airgeadllc - Order Flow Financials

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  #11 (permalink)
airgeadllc
Fayetteville, AR
 
 
Posts: 16 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 6 given, 14 received

I have the Basic Course, and I have the Jigsaw videos. I feel I can see some of the patterns John discusses, but as I said because I am a 1 lot trader, I can't really scalp a tick or two. This makes it very interesting. Today, there was that ranging going on and I was timing it badly. I was getting in a couple of ticks later than I should have. It burns but there is no substitute for trading with real money and the experience it generates.

Tomorrow I may jump down and trade just the 10-year instead of the 30-yr, my 5-tick emergency costs only ~$75 if I am wrong.

Glad you are interested in my experiment.

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  #12 (permalink)
airgeadllc
Fayetteville, AR
 
 
Posts: 16 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 6 given, 14 received

May 11th 2021 - ZN Trading

Economic News - 0900 EST - Jolts (Econoday Merits Extra Intention) - see attached
Jolts


Market ZN Ranging into the open 132 16/32 to 132 20/32 and tightening. Only trading the ZN this morning after yesterday's slaughter in the ZB

Two Premarket Screenshots. One showing the trades occurring on the inside, and then after I cleared them to start looking for a trade.


Before Market Open - Trades Reset


Before Market Open


1st Trade - Short ZN (see attached):
Entered @ 132 14/32; SL - 4 ticks; TP - Open
Exited @ 132 15/32


Shorted the ZN based on Buy-Side Orders being pulled and Sell-side hitting into the bid. Took 1 tick of heat before going up 3 ticks in the trade. When there was no push through the 12 1/2, I started to tighten by stop, to 2 ticks before there was a change in direction and buyers started pushing off the low. Stopped out for 2 tick loss. Believe me, I am not sure if I am even interpreting the order flow correctly.


1st Trade Entry


1st Trade Exit - 2 tick lose


2nd Trade - Long ZN (see attached)
Entered @ 132 14/32; SL - 4 ticks; TP - Open
Exit @ 134 14/32


Probably will be my last trade in the futures today, had some external frustrating/upsetting news and so my mind is not really in the game. This occurred after I had placed the trade, so not ideal. I took the trade of the order flow and the previous trade volume around this price, as well as no follow-through from the sellers below this price (132 12.5)
Moving into a high volume zone if we make it to the 132 17/32 areas.

Moved stop-loss to because no follow-through to the upside through 132 165 - probably going to be a ranging day, and I am not good enough yet to time/read those days. Out BE


2nd Trade Entry



2nd Trade Exit


3rd Trade Entry Long ZB
Enter @ 156 31/32; SL @ 4 ticks; TP Open
Exit 156 27/32


Took this last trade after I looked a the ZB reaching the bottom of its trading range. Trying to correctly read my range timing and order flow. Stopped out for 4 ticks


3rd Trade Entry


3rd Trade Exit


Lessons Learned:

<sigh> Ranging days: I need more screen time watching them. Without comms/fees -$169 Day.
Mentally, the last two days have been very frustrating and disheartening.

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  #13 (permalink)
airgeadllc
Fayetteville, AR
 
 
Posts: 16 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 6 given, 14 received


May 12th 2021 - ZB Trading

Econoday News: CPI @ 0830 EST & EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 1030 EST

Pre-Market Look:
ZB O/N Range: 156 26/32 to 157 9/32 - 15 ticks @ 0724 Mid-Range
ZN O/N Range: 132'12.5 to 132'18 - 11 ticks @ 0724 Mid-Range
ZF O/N Range: 124'07 to 124'09.5 - 10 ticks @ 0724 Mid-Range



Pre-Market


1st Trade - ZB Long (see attached):
Entered @ 132 14/32; SL - 4 ticks; TP - Open
Exited @ 132 14/32 - Scratch

Bought near the bottom of the initial reaction to the CPI Data Release as a fade, got up about 3 ticks, and moved my SL to scratch. Price touched back down to my entry and stopped me out before moving long again.

1st Trade - Scratch


2nd Trade - ZB Short (see attached):
Entered @ 156 23/32; SL - 5 ticks; TP - Open
Exited @ 156 28/32 - 5 tick loss


Entered the trade because the 10-yr was pushing lower into its lows and the 30-yr hadn't as yet followed. I took the short and no sooner was I in than I was out with another spike up. It is probable that I read the order flow, the wrong way around, the 30-yr was leading the 10-yr.


2nd Trade - Loser


CPI Numbers

CPI Numbers


3rd Trade - ZB Short (see attached):
Entered @ 156 24/32; SL - 5 ticks (should have been four); TP - Open
Exited @ 156 19/32 - 5 tick win


Sold the ZB because of the activity in the ZN, sellers were in control and hitting into bid. Buyers were refreshing trades but the sellers continued to push towards the low. Trade was an ulcer incubator, I didn't take any heat but waiting for the sellers to push through the ZB low (by one tick) so I could move my SL to BE was a killer. Eventually broke to 156 18/32, moved my SL to 156 19/32 and took 5 ticks profit. So all told after 3 trades I am scratch w/o commissions and fees.
I will wait for equity open before deciding if I will trade again today.


3rd Trade - Entry


3rd Trade Exit - Winner


4th Trade - ZB Short (see attached):
Entered @ 156 14/32; SL - 4 ticks; TP - Open
Exited @ 156 19/32 - 5 tick win


Took this fourth trade off the ZN/ZB both testing lows but the ZB Sellers were consuming everything the buyers could throw at them. Managed to work my SL to 5 ticks. Stopped out on a retrace for 5 ticks. The plan at the point before the stop was to allow the trade more room and not choke it off.

4th Trade - Entry


4th Trade - Intramove - Entry



4th Trade - Intramove - Entry


5th & 6th Trades - ZB Short (see attached):
5th - Entered @ 156 10/32; SL - 4 ticks; TP - Open
6th - Entered @ 156 8/32; SL - 4 ticks; TP - Open
5th - Exited @ 156 12/32 - 2 tick loss
6th - Exited @ 156 12/32 - 4 tick loss


Both trades 5 & 6 were poor reads and decisions on my behave. I should have noticed the market was kind of ranging a few ticks at this point, so instead of stopping at Trade 4 with a small profit, I ended up with -1 tick loss. Chasing the trades, poor decisions, and trade management. Of course, besides the 1 tick loss there will be comms/fees for 6 RT

5th Trade - Entry


5th Trade - Exit - 2 tick loss


6th Trade - Entry


6th Trade - Exit - 4 tick loss

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  #14 (permalink)
airgeadllc
Fayetteville, AR
 
 
Posts: 16 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 6 given, 14 received

May 13th 2021, - ZB/ZN Trading

Econoday News:Jobless Claims @ 0830 EST & PFF-Final Demand @ 0830 EST - EIA Natural Gas Reports @ 1030 EST

Pre-Market Look:
ZB O/N Range: 155 14/32 to 156 02/32 - 20 ticks @ 0715 Mid-Range
ZN O/N Range: 131'27 to 132'03 - 17 ticks @ 0715 Mid-Range
ZF O/N Range: 123'30.2 to 124'2 - 16 ticks @ 0715 Mid-Range

The plan for today is to let the Economic numbers play out, and wait for the market-open for trades.

1st Trade - ZB Long (see attached):
Entered @ 155 23/32; SL - 4 ticks; TP - Open
Exited @ 155 27/32 - 4 tick win

I entered the trade after I saw the buyer halt the initial short move, buyer orders appeared to be refreshing and the seller could not push through. I entered at market, took 1 tick heat before a nice pop-up to 155 30/32, I quickly moved my SL to 155 27/32 where I was stopped out for a 4 tick gain.


20210513 - 1st Trade Entry


20210513 - 1st Trade Exit - Stopped out for 4 tick profit


20210512 - Jobless Claims


20210512 - PPI-Final



2nd Trade - ZB Short (see attached):
Entered @ 155 30/32; SL - 4 ticks; TP - Open
Exited @ 155 29/32 - 1 tick win

As soon as I entered this trade I knew I was wrong. I entered from what I thought in the 10-yr was sellers stopping the buyers at the 10-yr session high. I took the ZB and immediately realized it was a UI Trade. I took up to 3 ticks of heat and a lot of chop until I finally managed to get my SL to BE + 1. The trade did get up to 4/5 ticks in the green but I prefer to move my SL when I have about 4 ticks of wiggle room. Unfortunately, that never came and I was stopped out for 1 tick.

You can see clearly where the volume was keeping the price roughly between 156'00 on the high side and 157'27 on the low.

Running Total Today: + 5 ticks (not including commissions/fees)


20210513 - 2nd Trade Entry


20210513 - 2nd Trade Intra-trade


20210513 - 2nd Trade Exit - Stopped out for 1 tick



3rd Trade - ZB Long (see attached):
Entered @ 155 28/32; SL - 4 ticks; TP - Open
Exited @ 155 27/32 - 1 tick loss

I took this trade of the large volume shelf in both the ZN & ZB, for the ZN that is around the 132'015 and for the ZB 155' 28. I entered the ZB Long with a Buy Limit order at 155'28. Got filled, got up a couple of ticks, and started to choke in my SL as I usually do, the price was testing the highs and my SL only made it to BE -1 tick. I was stopped out at 155'27 for a 1 tick loss. The market is sideways at the moment in my opinion.

You can see clearly where the volume is not trading between 155'028 & 156'01.

Running Total Today: + 4 ticks (not including commissions/fees)





3rd Trade - ZB Long (see attached):
Entered @ 155 28/32; SL - 4 ticks; TP - Open
Exited @ 155 27/32 - 1 tick loss

I took this trade of the large volume shelf in both the ZN & ZB, for the ZN that is around the 132'015 and for the ZB 155' 28. I entered the ZB Long with a Buy Limit order at 155'28. Got filled, got up a couple of ticks, and started to choke in my SL as I usually do, the price was testing the highs and my SL only made it to BE -1 tick. I was stopped out at 155'27 for a 1 tick loss. The market is sideways at the moment in my opinion.

You can see clearly where the volume is not trading between 155'028 & 156'01.

Running Total Today: + 4 ticks (not including commissions/fees)



20210513 - 3rd Trade Entry 155 28


20210513 - 3rd Trade Exit155 27 - 1 tick loss



4th Trade & Final Trade - ZB Long (see attached):
Entered @ 156 '00; SL - 4 ticks; TP - Open
Exited @ 155 30/32 - 2 tick loss

Poor read and I should have exited scratch or with a small 2 tick profit. The trade was entered off the back of the 10-yr leading an assault on its high, the 30-yr was lagging it. I entered and both the 10-yr and the 30-yr poked their noses through setting new highs, 1 tick higher in the ZB's case. I saw the resistance start to mount and if I had gone with my gut got out. I didn't and ended up with a 2 tick loss.

I have decided to call it a day for a small 2 tick gain but after commissions/fees, I may be scratch for the day. It will have to do.

Running Total Today: + 2 ticks (not including commissions/fees)


20210513 - 4th Trade Entry 156'0


20210513 - 4th Trade Exit 155'30 - 2 tick loss


** Addendum**
I pulled out the pin, dropped the grenade on the ground, and then dove in it. For some reason, I opened my trading platform around 1300. I looked at the NQ and thought I saw a trend in it. This was NOT using the order flow, purely candles. I got chopped up in 3 trades and then 1 30-yr trade and I lost $518 without commissions - complete idiot broke my own rules.


** Addendum 2 **
Appears it is worse than I expected, I blew ~ $700, pretty much all of my gains last week. I broke a number of my rules and when I was in that hole, I kept digging.

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  #15 (permalink)
airgeadllc
Fayetteville, AR
 
 
Posts: 16 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 6 given, 14 received

May 14th 2021, - ZB/ZN Trading

Okay, so after yesterday's debacle, I set up again to trade today. I have Snag-It and instead of doing a lot of screenshotting and typing, I thought a VLOG would be a better avenue so I could explain my thinking and reading of the order flow. However, I had issues with the Snag-It and there are no screenshots for today's trading. The only comments are from 3 trades I had one winner and two losers totaling a loss of 8 ticks. Obviously, at this point, I have to do some soul-searching and rethink my strategy.

I do believe order flow is right for me, and as John says it will take a lot of time. I am not someone who can paper trade, it is too easy to blow a big trade and reset. So I am funding a Tradovate Account so I can trade the Small Exchange Micro Financial futures. This will allow me to have money in the game but not destroy my account with a bad day. Tradestation only offers the four indices micros, also they do not support interfacing Jigsaw Daytradr into their platform via API if you have less than 10k in your account.

Tradovate allows seamless interaction with Jigsaw and will allow me to trade off the Jigsaw ladders. So, there may be no trades from me for the next few days, however long the funding process takes.

Until then I hope you all have more productive trading than I have had this week.

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  #16 (permalink)
airgeadllc
Fayetteville, AR
 
 
Posts: 16 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 6 given, 14 received

06/01/2021 - Update:

I managed to get the new brokerage set up to find that the micro-bond is on the small exchange which is not currently available through Jigsaw. So, when I do take trades again, they will be in the full contract.

I have been working through John Grady's course and also the videos from Peter Davies (of Jigsaw). From that material, I have decided to hold off trading until I have completed all of the videos, spent some time in front of the DOM watching the order flow before I start trading again.

I think I will start posting short videos of where I believe there would be trade entries and exits (without actually taking the trades), until I have some confidence in (hopefully) my ability to take trades of high enough probability to profit.

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