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In pursuit of a dream


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In pursuit of a dream

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  #1 (permalink)
sheva
Bellevue, WA
 
 
Posts: 9 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 2 given, 10 received

Hello everyone who's bored enough to visit this journal! I'm Alex

This will be my humble attempt to structure my thoughts and my trading as I go along this journey.

I'm somewhat familiar with trading, been trading for a year with almost no result (my broker is happy with my results anyway ). So after some time of analyzing it I've found tons of stupid things and now will do a second attempt to pursue a dream, trying to be thoughtful and making smart decisions.

What's the routine?
  • 6hrs/w of reading all the literature and books I've got purchased/saved for never later
  • 4hrs/w of building strategies, modeling/testing new and present ideas
  • 1hr/d of analyzing current market conditions for set ups

My goals:
  • Following trading plan
  • Eliminating repeating of same mistakes
  • Working through all my technical entry signal by the end of 2021
  • Constant performance review

Things I use:
  • TradeNavigator Platinum for analyze
  • NinjaTrader + CQG for trading itself

Markets I'm looking at:
  • British Pound
  • Euro
  • Yen
  • Gold
  • Crude Oil (Mini)
  • Natural Gas(Mini)
  • Corn
  • Soy
  • Soybean
  • Soybean oil
  • E-mini SP500


As of 04/23/2021:
Account balance: ~16.2k
Risk per trade: 2-4%

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  #2 (permalink)
sheva
Bellevue, WA
 
 
Posts: 9 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 2 given, 10 received

Not sure what will be my posting schedule here, probably will be adding some trades as they go, and weekly analyze and performance review.

Today:
I have LONG MGC since 04/14 and no other open trades.

Looking closely at:
NQG waiting for a little pullback so I can safely go long as I think there's a good potential there
M6E looks pretty strong to me. Same as NQG, waiting for a safe place to enter

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  #3 (permalink)
sheva
Bellevue, WA
 
 
Posts: 9 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 2 given, 10 received


So we've got ourselves Friday's COT report published so we can now take a closer look on what are BIG GUYS are up to.

ES.
Commercials keep increasing their longs, and overall NYSE advancing with a lot more stocks so I'd expect ES to continue a rally.
Can't add any pictures yet, but planning to back my analysis in the future with some.

Bonds.
After a long downtrend we see a bit of positive movement, but considering the amount of shorts in small speculators and net longs in commercials it should've been stronger imho. So atm I'd stay away.

WB.
Looks like we're close to have a pretty nice short coming, so I'd keep an eye. I'd let market go up a day or two and then would look for a nice entry.

WU.
Seems to be strongest currency atm. I'd be looking to enter on a pullback if there's one.

WY.
I'm waiting on some nice buys too. Not atm though.

GC.
I'm just holding my long position with a already profitable trailing.

CL.
Looks like I ain't getting a bonus price to go long, so I'm passing to keep my risk in balance.

NG
I don't like small speculators that keep adding their longs for my long entry, but if there's a entry signal - I'm taking it. Overall market seems to be underappreciated rn considering bull run that we've had in other energy markets

Corn
Although demand is still high I'd say we're pretty close to forming this year's global extremum. I see speculative money coming into the market and managed to steer away from it so... you know.. I wouldn't buy now. But, you never know

BO, S, SM
1. From whole soy group I'd probably not surprise anyone if I say BO is the strongest market, so if there's another pullback I'd consider buying it. If conditions will stay the same
2. S is the second strongest market and SM is the weakest. I'd wait for situation to develop further, and I'd stay out atm.

PS. somehow it did attach the picture, so there's an ES with net commercial for you there.

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  #4 (permalink)
 Blue Eagle 
Legendary Market Wizard
vancouver British Columbia/Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Trading: CL
 
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Posts: 1,080 since Jan 2013
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Just popping in to say good luck. I'm guessing you are swing trading (multi day) if you are watching all those markets. Look forward to seeing how things go. My 2 cents of unsolicited advice?? It can be a long haul...don't try to rush it.

Craig

We all have two lives...the second one starts when we realize...we only have one.
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sheva
Bellevue, WA
 
 
Posts: 9 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 2 given, 10 received


Blue Eagle View Post
Just popping in to say good luck. I'm guessing you are swing trading (multi day) if you are watching all those markets. Look forward to seeing how things go. My 2 cents of unsolicited advice?? It can be a long haul...don't try to rush it.

Craig

Hello Craig! Thanks for checking in Yeah, I'm trading d1 bars, so I'm usually anywhere from 3 to 10 days in the trade. Sometimes 1, but that's usually not good

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  #6 (permalink)
sheva
Bellevue, WA
 
 
Posts: 9 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 2 given, 10 received

So it's been pretty productive week for my trading. I've spent ~20hrs, which is more than I planned, and there's a few things I enjoyed the most:
  • Finished L. Williams's book "Long term secrets to short term trading" that was laying around on my bookshelf for about a year. Why haven't I done it before???
    The book is an absolute gem. as soon as I finished it I just got all of his book and pretty much every one he's mentioned, so I have what to read till the end of 2021
  • I started looking into TradeSense and man I do see a great potential of those algorithmic models. Before I've spent who knows how long to manually generate around
    5000 history trades, but I think a combination of manual/algo is good thing. Still gonna take me some time to program all those ideas and different entry/exit points,
    but I'm in no rush. Btw, here's a first strategy I've built:



Not too bad, for a very first one. It's got a stoploss of 3000$ or a trailing stop, target of 12000$. Enters pretty late when trend is obviously developed,
that's why just a few trades/year. My manual testing usually ends up around 15-30trades/year depending on the entry points.

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  #7 (permalink)
 Tirutrade   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 21 since Sep 2016
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Larry is for sure very useful.

You have not mentioned EUR in your review.
Commercials are quite long and we have just cleared the 50AM daily recently.


PS: Not sure what WB, WU and WY are. You mention those are currencies.

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  #8 (permalink)
sheva
Bellevue, WA
 
 
Posts: 9 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 2 given, 10 received


Tirutrade View Post
Larry is for sure very useful.

You have not mentioned EUR in your review.
Commercials are quite long and we have just cleared the 50AM daily recently.


PS: Not sure what WB, WU and WY are. You mention those are currencies.

Welcome to my blog!

I'm using TradeNavigator's combined contracts (electronic + pit data) for my analysis so I'm just used to their way of naming:
WU/6E/G6E - Euro
WB/6B/G6B - British pound
WY/J7/G6J - Japanese Yen

And, indeed Euro is one of those I just wait an entry point on.

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  #9 (permalink)
sheva
Bellevue, WA
 
 
Posts: 9 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 2 given, 10 received

No added positions today. Just moved my GC trailing a bit higher, we have some high growth expectations from Sentiment Index and a seasonal swing point coming up,
so we might see another deep. GC isn't strong rn. I don't think it'll be a mistake to Stop&Reverse but I don't have extensive stats on this method yet, so I'll be just closing long if it's hit.


Here's to a missed opportunities...
God knows why I canceled my Limit Buy order on CL @61.00 this was a very close entry point I've recently started to test and so far I'm happy with the performance
(around 30-40% win rate, but P/L compensates it well). But this entry isn't fully implemented in my strategy yet, so I'm not too upset about it

Another one I didn't take today : "Oops" signal today on NG, I guess, just wanted a bigger pullback entry.

Nothing to add here, except a little reminder "If you can't follow it, what good is your strategy?"

As to current situation, there's not much changed with my previous analysis for this week. I'm still paying close attention to British Pound (sell), Euro (buy) and Yen (buy).

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  #10 (permalink)
sheva
Bellevue, WA
 
 
Posts: 9 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 2 given, 10 received


No time to add a lot of analysis, just some updates on the result of today:
  • Stopped out with MGC with 294$ profit
  • Opened short British Pound @ 1.3866

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