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MrMojoRisin's Journal

  #261 (permalink)
 
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 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: YC, YW, YK
Posts: 385 since Apr 2021
Thanks Given: 91
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Monday January 3rd

Did some contemplation about my situation in the recent days and I came to a conclusion.
May 7th , 2022 is my D-day.
If I do not have a solid, on actual facts basing reason to assume that I'll be able to cover my living-costs with trading very soon from then on, I'll get a job again.
And if I'm honest, I think the chance of somehow turning this around until May is at most 30%.

So my goal for now goes more into the direction of preparing everything to be able to still keep in touch with trading and with the market, with about 2 hours of dedication per day.
Fortunately I anyways gravitated towards the longer time-frame in the recent months and so that shouldn't be that big of a problem.

It's a tough decision, but I gotta stay logical and reasonable. I'm still fully convinced that it will finally work out, but I can't say when that will be and since I'm already on full throttle to the metal, doing still more doesn't work and at one point all that forcing starts to become counterproductive as well. In such an endeavor it's clear that one has to sacrifice a lot of other things, but one also must not forget that life is for actual living!


_______________________________________________________________________________

Finished all the current books and started to do a bit of research on Peter Brandt. He mainly trades futures, but his approach resonates to me. He's on the longer time frame and he's a pure chart-pattern trader. What is interesting is, that his focus is on horizontal indications of the patterns as opposed to, for example diagonal trendlines, which resonates with me as well. In essence he is trading breakouts looking on daily and even weekly charts. He refers to Schabacker's book about Technical Analysis, so next step is looking into that.

"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
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  #262 (permalink)
 
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 bobwest 
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MrMojoRisin View Post
Monday January 3rd

[I]Did some contemplation about my situation in the recent days and I came to a conclusion.
May 7th , 2022 is my D-day.
If I do not have a solid, on actual facts basing reason to assume that I'll be able to cover my living-costs with trading very soon from then on, I'll get a job again.
And if I'm honest, I think the chance of somehow turning this around until May is at most 30%.

...

It's a tough decision, but I gotta stay logical and reasonable.

For whatever my opinion may be worth, I think this is probably a wise decision.

At this point, I do think that you will be able to get there. You are dedicated and methodical, you attend to detail and you have a long-term perspective on the task. All this is good.

Long ago I had to face the same situation, and decided to go back to work. There is really nothing that can beat having a steady income. It really changes everything.

Your thought in this journal has been unique and interesting to follow. I am sure that if you attend to the practicalities of securing an income -- assuming you need to do it in the next few months -- that you will be able to carry on in perfecting your trading.

Determination is not the only thing, but it is essential. After that, taking care of the practicalities of life, so you can carry out your determination, is important too.

Good luck to you.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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  #263 (permalink)
 
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 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: YC, YW, YK
Posts: 385 since Apr 2021
Thanks Given: 91
Thanks Received: 244



bobwest View Post
For whatever my opinion may be worth, I think this is probably a wise decision.

At this point, I do think that you will be able to get there. You are dedicated and methodical, you attend to detail and you have a long-term perspective on the task. All this is good.

Long ago I had to face the same situation, and decided to go back to work. There is really nothing that can beat having a steady income. It really changes everything.

Your thought in this journal has been unique and interesting to follow. I am sure that if you attend to the practicalities of securing an income -- assuming you need to do it in the next few months -- that you will be able to carry on in perfecting your trading.

Determination is not the only thing, but it is essential. After that, taking care of the practicalities of life, so you can carry out your determination, is important too.

Good luck to you.

Bob.

Thanks for these words, Bob. I really appreciate them!

"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
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  #264 (permalink)
 
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 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: YC, YW, YK
Posts: 385 since Apr 2021
Thanks Given: 91
Thanks Received: 244

Tuesday January 4th

Started reading "Macro-Economics for Dummies". One reason is for getting a bit of an understanding about the nature of the economic cycles and the other, for getting a better grasp on the workings of inflation, debt, central banks and so on.

Then finally got an entry in HPQ after some 2 weeks of waiting.

Stock-Operation #4 Entry
































"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
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  #265 (permalink)
 
MrMojoRisin's Avatar
 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: YC, YW, YK
Posts: 385 since Apr 2021
Thanks Given: 91
Thanks Received: 244

Wednesday January 5th

Macro-Economics about economic-growth, types of unemployment and in which way economists work together with politics.
An interesting question to think about is: Is supply creating demand, or is demand creating supply?

Decided to supplement the stocks under close watch with an additional manual bar-chart. I think I have neglected the importance of volume too much until now, and in this way I'm trying to get that also into the equation.
But the focus here is really not on drawing the prices to the cent exact, but to just get into the general volume - price flow.


HPQ



DHI

"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
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  #266 (permalink)
 
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 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: YC, YW, YK
Posts: 385 since Apr 2021
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Thursday January 6th

First deviation from my plan on HPQ. I don't move the stop to breakeven today on day 3, because I planned that by looking on other examples, where it didn't touch this level on day 3 anymore. But since it fell below it today and has now rebounded only a bit back above it again, I fear that I could get faked out unnecessarily by the opening-candle tomorrow.
So I wait how tomorrow plays out, and if it has a strong day and holds above the level, will put the stop to b/e tomorrow.

Removed AMX from observation, because it already ran too far above the Pivotal Point, so that the entire picture isn't quite right anymore.
Also DHI starts to look worse every day. But added MU.

One thing I'm trying to figure out is, how I should judge the importance of each part of the entire pattern. I suspect that the way it runs up towards the breakoutlevel and the way it forms the handle, could be more important than the "roundness" of the cup and the "rapidity" the Pivotal Point spike and drop afterwards occurs.

MU

"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
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  #267 (permalink)
 
MrMojoRisin's Avatar
 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: YC, YW, YK
Posts: 385 since Apr 2021
Thanks Given: 91
Thanks Received: 244

Friday January 7th

Deleted DHI from observation. Pattern without a doubt not valid anymore. Added CHRW for observation.
HPQ still around entry-level. Plan for now is to have it one full day being above this level and then moving the stop to b/e.

Started "Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits" by Richard Schabacker. This is said to be the first comprehensive book that has ever been written about technical analysis, even though strictly speaken was first a course that has been sent to subscribers piece by piece on a monthly basis I think.
Schabacker puts special emphasis on volume, which is exactly what I'm looking for. I also don't intend to adopt his entire approach, but try to look more for clues for better understanding the type of breakouts I'm currently focusing on.
A lucky coincidence is that the type of charts the book uses are exact the same high-low price charts with volume I started drawing already by myself the other day.

"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
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  #268 (permalink)
 
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 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
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Trading: YC, YW, YK
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Thanks Given: 91
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Monday January 10th

Through with the reversal-patterns in Schabacker's TA book. Up next are the continuation-patterns. When describing the patterns he refers very often to also look at the volume on specific parts which I think is pretty important. I really disliked taking volume into consideration, but slowly it starts coming through.
He also describes things in terms of pools and large operators and there are a lot of similarities to the DeVilliers & Taylor descriptions in their book about the P&F method. Actually both books have almost been kinda lost over the years and then got saved and revived by the same man, Donald Mack, who has specialized in all sorts of books about the market.


Took PGR under observation and made a checklist for what involves an observation. I might not do all the parts right at the beginning, but before opening a position, all parts have to be present and been examined, no matter what!


Checklist

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  #269 (permalink)
 
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 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: YC, YW, YK
Posts: 385 since Apr 2021
Thanks Given: 91
Thanks Received: 244

Tuesday January 11th

Technical Analysis finished the major continuation-patterns and started the more uncommon, miscellaneous patterns.

In HPQ first full day above the Handle-High-Point and so moved the stop up to almost b/e. This is day 6. Interesting is, that since I entered, pretty much all surrounding gauges, sector, market etc. dropped, but HPQ held very stable. So I think this reflects an inherent strength which got primary hindered to develop because of everything else dragging it down/holding it back.
Nevertheless, if it doesn't start to rise soon, I rather be out of it for breakeven, trying to put the "dimension of time" into that decision.
But if the general market should decide to climb steady towards its high in the following days, maybe it can get some steam.

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 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: YC, YW, YK
Posts: 385 since Apr 2021
Thanks Given: 91
Thanks Received: 244


Wednesday January 12th

TA about types of Gaps. Schabacker classifies them into 4 groups:
-Common gap
-Break-Away gap
-Continuation gap
-Exhaustion gap
What I like about the book is, that it's not so much about Technical Analysis how I think of it, but more about Chart-reading.
___________________________________________________________

Started an observation of KR and decided to declare CHRW as not to trade.
Drew the 10year relative strength chart today and didn't like what I see.

CHRW

That looks to me more like it is weakening in the long term and just in a correction currently.


Industrial-sector

If I then look on the Industrial-sector as a whole, it's also not in the best position currently.
Those two combined seem to be too far off for not slipping into the gamble-category.

My train of thought is, that if I enter the trade, but the entire market is not really going upwards and more chopping around, like it does currently, CHRW is less likely to withstand one or two down-days in the chopiness and could shake me unnecessarily out.
But I still keep it on the watch if that theory really has somethig to it.

"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
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