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Now in the evening almost a legit uptrend again. Maybe I have luck tomorrow for a trade.
This waiting sucks and I feel like I'm losing touch with the market.
Somehow this all is still not how I want my trading to be. I'm wondering if I have slipped from hammering out too many stupid trades, to trading too less with the intention of trying to avoid losing, again.
Also thinking of searching for the pattern that seems to work in the MES in stocks as well. But if I start getting caught up too much in stocks again, I'll maybe miss some good MES moves.
I can't tell how often I thought that the grass is greener on the other side since I've started and in the end it was never the case. Different markets, different methodologies have different difficulties. This "Final solution" just doesn't exist.
This "unperfection" is just a part of trading and I have to find a spot where I can accept this in the best way possible and then stay there!
I feel like there's some major error in my thinking about what trading actually is. Somehow I think that I'm looking for solution of the problem in the wrong spot.
Trend has turned upwards, but the "coming from below"-type of chart didn't develop that well. I get more and more dissatisfied with just trading the MES. I have a pretty clear idea what I want the chart to look like, but at times those opportunities are so rare in just that one market, that I have to take mediocre trades. Overall just not what I like my trading to be....
Trade #78
2021-05-14 (3)
2021-05-14 (2)
Not ideal, but I have to take a trade somewhen.
Moved stop once
Win: +1.25P / +5 Ticks
Trade #79
Followup-trade, a little bit of "coming from below"-character.
2021-05-14 (7)
2021-05-14 (6)
Got stopped out by some quick Retail-Sales MoM volatility
Loss: -4.25P / -17 Ticks
Trade #80
Again Followup-trade. My criteria are given, so I take it.
2021-05-14 (11)
2021-05-14 (10)
Loss: -3.75P / -15 Ticks
Trade #81
Technically I broke my only 3 trades per day-rule here, but you gotta know when to stick to your rules and when to break them.
I recognized the price-action behaviour that was very similar to how it was before some of the big runners, so not taking follow-up trades would be stupid and in this case a mistake.
2021-05-14 (15)
2021-05-14 (14)
Moved stop twice
Win: +2.25P / +9 Ticks
Trade #81
Behavior was still legit, and Trade #80 felt like one of those out-shakers and again not taking the followup-trade would be the bigger mistake here.
Emotions were still in check. Just a short 10sec tweak of pain in the head after the second loss, but still at least 80% rational.
2021-05-14 (18)
2021-05-14 (19)
There was a unusual quick dump during the trade, like it was changing its behaviour from "calm and rational" back to "wild and unpredictable" for a while and then back.
Moved stop 4 times
Win: +10.00P / +40 Ticks
After that it still rises further, but it made a lower low, so I took no followup trade. Would have been more of a gamble at this point.
Tried to bring another attitude towards the market this week. Felt way better than the previous 2 weeks, but just sitting on my ass and waiting for 3 days without a trade is not what I want my trading to be.
Question is if I should put my energy into trying to understand the MES better and stick with it, or if I should focus just on my setup and look for it in different markets as well?!
The experiment will take place in stocks, I hope that's no problem for this site.
Theoretically I think it would be even better in the Futures-Market, but it's just not possible with my account size and the amount of money I am comfortable to risk for each trade, but it is anyways completely technical.
I have one specific chart-setup in mind I'm looking for, that I think has a positive expectancy. Since I think I'm pretty stable in regards to trade execution, meaning pulling the trigger in entering when I have to, taking a loss when I have to and re-entering if necessary, I feel like I have to put my focus more on "Where do I make a trade".
I want to only dance with the prom-queen and leave the hick girls alone!
That's what the prom queen looks like:
setup
The very exact picture will vary, but I want the chart as close to this as possible.
The big picture trend will be on 60min and the trend I'm trading on the 10min.
The advantages
If I get stopped out, I have more time until a possibly necessary re-entry, so emotional mistakes get more unlikely
I have thousands of charts, so I can be very specific and really try to pick only the best ones without getting fomo
I can always keep myself busy by scanning through charts, which prevents forcing mediocre trades and still gives me the feeling of doing something productive and making progress
I'm likely all the time in at least one trade, so I again not have to force mediocre shit just for the sake of "being in the market and having a chance of hitting the jackpot"
The disadvantages
I tie up a lot of buying power, even with my low amount of money I'm risking for each trade
I try to stick to the more liquid ones, but there's still a higher likelyhood of getting slippage, especially if my position gets executed at the open
I have the risk of getting stopped out with a gap-down and lose in bad cases probably double of what I intended to lose
I have the general overnight risk of some shit happening in the world which dumps the overall market to the ground
First goal is to trade 10 different names, re-enter as aften as necessary, let the winners run with my stop-technique as I did in the MES and just look what happens.
First trade if I get executed would be this beautiful, charming lady
Nothing today, just chopping around sideways. No continuation of the Friday trend.
Project "Prom Queen"
Entry Trade #1
Big picture
Appears a little "sidewaysy". Try to be picky, but not too much, since gathering experience and figuring out what worrks and what not, is the primary focus for now
10min
Entry Trade #2
Big picture
10min
This is the name from above. After the open there was a quick dump, which altered the picture a bit, but I still consider the trend intact, so I entered
Until now I like it. Only scanned through about 200 charts and found almost more possible setups than I can handle. That there was nothing going on in the MES today also didn't bother me at all.
Again nothing. Looked like it could form a long opportunity in the morning, had some orders in at some points, but got never executed.
Project "Prom Queen"
Entry Trade #3
Big picture
Very clean chart. Couldn't be much better!
10min Entry
Also very clean. Intuitively is this the overall best chart until now, so I'm especially curious how this one turns out
Entry & Exit Trade #4
Big picture
10min Entry & Exit
Also very clean chart, but not the first upward 1-2-3, but on the otherhand the first 1-2-3 wasn't that significant. Anyways, I'd consider this a totally legit loss.
Will still keep an eye on it, and re-enter if it starts to climb again and still appears to be legit trendwise
Loss: -1.15R
Entry Trade #5
Big picture
10min Entry
Not the very best looking on this chart
Entry Trade #6
Big picture
If I look at it now, one could also argue that the trend above the one I'm trading is in a downtrend and the next bigger is in an uptrend. Maybe this could be one to avoid if I'm trying to be extra picky
10min Entry
Also here the P2 is basically the high of a gap-up open candle which disturbs the cleanliness and maybe a reason to avoid this trade
Positions adding up pretty fast, but I like it so far. Stresslevel is basically zero. Feels like more of a "managing" than trading.
Trade #1 a bit at a critical point at the moment if I should already put my stop to the next low, but seems like just a little bit too little significant, so I let it on the long leash for now.
Basically a fomo-chase. Would have preferred an earlier entry looking on the large trend, but got no pullback on the small trend until well above the large P2. So I took the secondhand trade.
Big picture
Loss: -4.75P / -19 Ticks
Trade #84
Follow-up-trade. One could argue that it made a lower low here, but I've been fooled by that before and don't like getting fooled twice, so I hammerd the next trade in. Maybe it was intuition, maybe just luck.
Who knows?! I know that nobody knows anything and those who claim to know know even less.
Big picture
Moved stop 4 times
Win: +10.75P / +43 Ticks
Trade #85
Also got fooled by such a situation the other day, so I smacked the next trade into the market. Trading is the dirtiest business you can be in without getting real dirt onto your hands. No place for perfection, just dirty trades that just never work out like one would want them to.
Big picture
Had a very short "This fuckin piece of market"- moment, but recovered quickly.
Loss: -3.00P / -12 Ticks
Trade #86
Next follow-up-trade "The big picture is a project you have to work off with a series of trades"
Can't deny that I was pissed after this trade. So much dirtywork for this few points. Where are those easy 30P trends?
Shut down the charts after this one. No mental ability to make another re-entry and I definitely couldn't stand seeing this thing run further without me.
Win: +4.50P / +18 Ticks
This "I got fooled by this and that in the past" reminds me a bit of my regret-trading of missed moves 2 weeks ago.
Gotta try to stay aware of that and differentiate between what is more of learning experience and what is emotionally fuelled regret-trading.
The ladies went into the dumpster today. Seems I've stepped once too often onto their toes.
Overall market gapped down quite a bit today and so did my trades, but I don't think there's necesserily something wrong with the concept. Just bad luck that this happens right at the beginning of my experiment, but I'll need more like 100 examples to see if that can work. Ideally I should also try to have a few short positions running, which could likely benefit from such a day.
Pretty much the same thing happened when I've tried something similar when the funds got squeezed by GME, but this time I won't get intimitated by just one bad day.
Exit Trade #2
Got gapped out right at the open for a slightly larger loss than planned
Loss: -1.35R
Exit Trade #3
Stopped out with the open candle, but didn't gap below my stop.
This was the most perfect appearing chart. It's setting up already pretty good for a re-entry and I'll definitely give it a 2nd shot
Loss: -1.2R
Exit Trade #1
Loss: -1.1R
There are 2 trades remaining which found support right at the previous low, so my stops are were in the right place in these cases. Interesting is, that the the chart I didn't like that well, because the P2 was the top of a gapping up open candle, recovered the best
Very weird trade!
Already had a huge spike right before cash-open. I waited for a nice pullback to "come from below" with my entry. No pullback but I felt like it behaved as if it would just spike further, so I entered.
Also fomo involved and the thought "Better make a loss and re-enter, than missing the move". I can't tell if that's good or bad.
I do try to observe the market in a non-judgemental way and listen to what it is telling me. Especially on the #of trades based chart at times it makes large candles that smash unperdictable up and down like telling me "Fuck off, I don't give you money today". And at other times it moves more in a tight slow fashion, not in so wide spans, but very calm like telling me "Today I'm in a good mood, let's go for a ride".
However then it spiked, but without giving me a chance to move my stop and did a huge pullback. Never had such a situation, so I behaved like I would have did a fresh entry and started to move my stop that way. Appeared like it can climb back up again and then out of nowhere dumped and stopped me out exact at the bottom. Technically I must have re-entered after that, but I was caught by surprise, confused and also pissed. Had to shut down the charts again after that to prevent total confusion and getting frustrated. Yesterday it was a good thing, saved me from a loss, but closing the charts early all the time also isn't a sustainable solution. I gotta get more specific when I re-enter a trade and when not!
Big picture
Moved stop 5 times
Win: +12.50P
Prom Queens
Entry Trade #7
Forgot to place my order in this one yesterday in the heat of trading the MES, so I placed a Limit order for the open today where I would have entered and luckily got filled.
Big picture
One could also argue here that it's in a downtrend, but by just looking at it "I think it favors the long side anyways", so I take it. Time will tell how to exact handle these cases.
10 min
This started spiking from the get-go and appears to be pretty strong. Had the best start from all for now.
Entry Trade #8
Big picture
10min
Not the sexiest trend here. This huge outside bar sucks, but I consider it good enough and trend enough for an entry
____________________________
Moved stop in Ticker #6 today, but just for 2 cents "to be correct"
Having a few tickers on the watch and trades on the line are a pretty good cure for the hallucination causing illness of tick-mirco-analyzing
Very nice entry. That's what I'm aiming for, but rarely get this nice. Only higher lows built up and 3 highs to break above. Again was stopped out at the very exact bottom, but handled it well emotionwise, waited for a re-entry, didn't get one and then it tanked anyways.
Big picture
Moved stop 7 times
Win: +13.75P / +55 Ticks
Queens behaved smooth today. #8 was very close to my stop at one point, but recovered a bit by now. Had 2 entry-orders in other tickers, but none of them were reached.
