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Not really sure if that was legit concerning big picture valid uptrend. The main thought I was aware of was "What if this thing starts to spike now straight without pullback for letting me in, so I rather take this entry to be in for sure".
As the trade was in, it became so painful that I had to put in an alert and go away from the screen. This 8th loss in a row fuckin shattered my soul. Felt like a complete failure after it.
2021-04-28 (11)
2021-04-28 (13)
Loss: -3.0P / -12 Ticks
After I calmed down I looked at my results since I started to stick to my methdology and it astounds me that they actually are pretty good altough it feels to me like I'm close to blowing up.
Since March 31st I've did 33 Trades in the MES
Losing Trades: 21 / Points lost: 71.25
Winning Trades: 12 / Points won: 174.75
So my winning %-age for these trades is 36%, but I still have 59% of my profits. There were 3 really good runners and 4 medium-good runners which basically made the profits.
I still have no idea how much luck and good market conditions there were this month, but even if I could keep just around 30% of my profits in the long run that would be all I could ask for.
If someone who is experienced in trying to catch intraday trends and ride them or trend following in general is reading this, I'd really appreciate some thoughts on these numbers and maybe my trades.
I know 33 Trades is not much, but I think 33 Trades over a month traded with money on the line are telling more than just some backtested trades.
Big picture chart felt way better than the chopped up chart from all the losers. Maybe at least some of such losers will become avoidable with more experience. Now it feels like there was maybe not only "It's my duty to trade every signal", but also some fomo involved. It's still a problem to stay objective all the time and to recognize when objectivity is gone.
However there were also "instant-down-slammers" in this trade which make losing/giving back way worse than if it moves normal. At least I see some light at the end of the tunnel now.
No idea what I'm doing anymore. I'm starting to doubt that my "methodology" isn't just some random construct I've built in my head that just accidentally worked for the past three weeks and now reality is catching up. Horrible week. Thinking of going back and trying the Tailor Trading Technique again or trying to scalp breakouts for just a few ticks. Or was it just one bad week and I should go on as the previous three weeks?! No fuckin clue, but this amount of losses can't be normal anymore...
Big pic
2021-04-30 (8)
2021-04-30 (7)
Loss: -3.75P / -15 Ticks
Edit:
If I look at the chart this way, this trade was NOT LEGIT, because medium-term we were in a non-trend phase. So this should be an avoidable loss.
Not sure if this will help but it has helped me alot.
Two parts.
One) when you get your signal and are ready to enter... don't... pretend you did or put your entry where you don't think it'll go. Like REALLY don't think it will go. You will be surprised how far it will go sometimes.
Its the - “Better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than in the air wishing you were on the ground.” - situation.
Two) scale. If you can enter where you'd like but put another contract on where your stop would be. ***CRITICAL*** your loss if stopped out on both contracts can't be more than on the one contract trade so you have to adjust but in this way you don't need to be SO right in predicting. Which I don't think anyone can do anyway.
Test or not thats cool. Just trying to be helpful.
Cheers.
P.S. I think your really hard on yourself. Your stats are good man. Your ALWAYS going to have losses they just have to be relative to your wins.
I've tried a lot like those tricks you're describing, but I came to another conclusion I'm trying to put into practice.
A trend is more likely to continue than to reverse, but if we look on a chart we tend to only look on the points where it reverses and so we automatically tend to make our trades based on these points, which turns the odds in the long run against the trader.
And we also hate to take losses, so we automatically gravitate (almost unconsciously) towards trying to build our trades/systems avoiding to take losses as good as we can, but this also works as a disadvantage in the long run.
So my conclusion is, that over the long run if I just enter all the time almost mindlessly, into trend direction, no matter how often I lose, and let my winners run, there has to be a positive result. It's just still difficult to determine in which direction the various trends in different time frames are going and hence determining if the trade was a legit loser or more of a direction-perception mistake.
And of course after the tenth loss my brain is telling me: "What the fuck are you doing? Don't you see that you're losing all the time?" and punishes me with feeling like crap.
I'm trying to go on like that at least until Trade #100 and just look what happens. I really don't think that trading is that difficult of a thing to do, we just tend to make it difficult because we can't stand the enormous possibilities of wealth the market is offering and so our brain is blocking on purpose our perception of the "easy opportunities" in the market.
I wish I could say I agree. A trend is only a trend in reverse.
"The trend is your friend till it bends". Sure you just needed to buy pullbacks and cash out at the top. But even if you could... COULD you but at the bottom when it looks like its never coming back? Then COULD you sell at the top holding through all the pullbacks but exiting only at the top one?
Our trades are overlaid onto the market. Hence we trade our trades and our beliefs. The markets gonna do whatever the markets gonna do.
I thought about that the previous days and I realized that I'm way too long biased in this market, probably just because I lost one single short trade when I started trading the MES and long trades were running pretty good. Even though it's in a strong uptrend on the daily, I feel like it's a mistake to not make short trades at all, especially looking on the time frame I'm trading in.
Big picture trend turned into a downtrend and so I tapped my feet into shorting again here.
Big pic
2021-05-04 (3)
2021-05-04 (2)
Loss: -4.25P / -17Ticks
Trade #62
Moved extremely aggressive and fast after the cash-open today and dumped like a stone. Took only 10mins this trade and was very demanding, but executed it without hesitation like planned.
Big pic
2021-05-04 (17)
2021-05-04 (16)
Moved Stop 3 times
Win: +10.00P / +40 Ticks
Trade #62
Especially proud of this one. I hate making a trade into the same direction right after I got stopped out from a winner, but I know that I should do it, so I hammered it in without thinking twice!
2021-05-04 (15)
2021-05-04 (14)
Moved stop 2 times Break even
Trade #64
Maybe I should think of making a rule for such a case here. From a logical basis I think it's not very likely for a trend running down with such steam like this one to reverse that quick and jump back up again.
I know that I had the scenario from Thursday April 29th in mind where it dumped and then snapped back straight up again. But this was more of a quick dump and not so much of a "trend with steam behind" I guess.
Nevertheless big picture had a higher low and a higher high and since "No thinking allowed" I traded it.
2021-05-04 (9)
2021-05-04 (8)
Loss: -3.50P / -14 Ticks
Trade #65
Made another higher low, but likely just low odds trying to go long here. Probably more of a bottom picking. Not good.
2021-05-04 (13)
2021-05-04 (12)
Loss: -3.50P / -14 Ticks
Gotta give myself some props for today. Especially in this aggressive moves just hesitating a second with stopping out could lead to very bad and psychologically damaging situations nobody wants to be in. Navigated that day pretty good even though stress-level was very high.
More of an uptrend in the big picture isn't possible. Classic in at the top out at the bottom, reversing and going in my direction again.
2021-05-05 (4)
2021-05-05 (3)
Loss: -3.75P / -15 Ticks
Trade #67
Re-entered. It's amazing how I've been in this trade for 3 hours and not even made back the loss from the previous trade which took 7 min.
2021-05-05 (8)
2021-05-05 (7)
Moved stop 2 times
Win: +3.25P / +13 Ticks
Trade #68
Faking me out all the time. Wider stop would prevent that in these cases but I gotta stick to my rules. I'm feeling like I'm just mindlessly burning money all the time, but I swear in the very instance I stop and look for another methodology, there will come one 30Point trend after the next.
Definitely will reassess my situation on the weekend.
2021-05-05 (12)
2021-05-05 (11)
Loss: -3.25P / -13 Ticks
Evening
Trade #69
Should NOT have taken this trade! Not a valid uptrend on the big picture, but I thought "This looks so perfect and I have to have luck sometime." That's no t okay and gambling! I have to stay focused and not slip into the attitude that I have already made so much losses and one more or less doesn't matter.
Earlier I saw a short I probably should have taken which dumped like a stone. Felt like I missed out on this and probably tried to make that up with this b.s. trade.
Okay something is happening here I gotta take care of!
Trade #70
2021-05-06 (3)
2021-05-06 (2)
Yes, we are in a downtrend and this trade maybe was legit, but it still feels kinda wrong if I look at it today...
Loss: -3.0P / -12Ticks
Trade #71
I tell myself "I gotta take every signal I get", to not miss a winner when it comes around. I start to feel like these "good intentions" are just fomo in disguise.
2021-05-06 (7)
2021-05-06 (6)
I recall some situation a few days ago, where the chart looked similar and as it broke the lowest low, it dumped instantly like a stone. What I'm doing here is being resentful that I missed this move and the money it could have given me, and now I'm trying to force the market to do it again to give me "my" money. I try to trade the past here.
Loss: -3.50P / -14Ticks
Trade #72
What can I say? If someone tries to force shit on me, I also tell them to fuck off.
2021-05-06 (11)
2021-05-06 (10)
I'm even starting to doubt that I drew that big red arrow to remind myself that we're technically in a downtrend, and not to try and tell the market where it should go
Loss: -3.75P / -15Ticks
Trade #73
What the fuck am I doing?
I have the guy in the webinar in my head saying "If you get faked out once, you also have to take the second signal", but that was talking of reversal bars. I'm pretty confused because of what reason I'm doing what.
2021-05-06 (13)
2021-05-06 (12)
Yes it went south, but only after it had faked me out. At the latest here my rationality was gone, but probably it was gone even earlier.
Loss: -3.75P / -15Ticks
Trade #74
As I recap all this shit trades I start getting disgusted.
2021-05-06 (15)
2021-05-06 (14)
At least I could move my stop once
Loss; -1.75P / -7Ticks
Trade #75
This trade is that beginning of the end type of trade. Everybody thinks "It can't happen to me", until it happens, and if I don't start to take care again I'll navigate myself right into the dumpster.
I ALWAYS put in a S/L with every trade far away just in case my internet should die down at the very instance I put my order in. When I'm in the trade I then pull it at its correct place.
I saw this "golden opportunity of a trade", while I tried somehow to keep track of all the shit trades I did before, thought "Fuck this pullback is perfect, I can't miss this trade" and threw in my short order, not even having time to put in my internet-die-down-security-S/L, and had to do this afterwards in a fully stressed out panic-mode.
