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MrMojoRisin's Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES
 
MrMojoRisin's Avatar
 
Posts: 239 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 54 given, 125 received

Welcome to my journal fellow trader!


What are my convictions about the market?

The market is more likely to keep going in its current direction than to reverse and the larger the time-frame, the more reliable this becomes.
Also do I think that we project our beliefs about the market and life in general onto the chart, which skews our perception into whatever we want to see, which then determines our trading decisions or how we develop our systems/methodologies.
For myself the fear of losing is probably the biggest problem.

How do I define my methodology?

For my big picture, which gives me the direction Iím looking for to make a trade, I use a 1000 Trades chart. Ideally the trend is there in a pullback, but has not necessarily to. I then look for a trend reversal on the small picture, which is a 100 Trades chart, or just an ordinary pullback, and open a position into the next breakout above the current high, with my stop at the previous low.
I then follow with my stop, always putting it below the next low as soon as it breaks above its current high.

Especially defining the direction of the trend on the big picture is a difficulty for me and in a lot of situations pretty subjective, but thatís also intended because with more experience I think I can develop my own individual edge exactly there.

In the past I used to focus on shorting penny stocks, making tons of excel-sheets and dozens of rules when exactly to do what, but despite it hardly showing useful results, there always occurred some situation that would require some new rule and it was overall just a pain in the ass.
Now I realize that what I did, I did in the intention of creating that holy grail 99% winning strategy, because of my fear of losing.
Iím through with that and thatís why I like the subjective part in my methodology. It gives me more freedom and allows me to understand the market and its behaviour from a more unbiased perspective, not trying to force my rules on it.

Why do I think my methodology should work?

Because
a) In buying only breakouts, I automatically can not pick bottoms and tops and in only exiting when I get stopped out, I accomplish the same when Iím in a winning trade. I always sacrifice a part of my paper gain for a potential bigger gain. So with that I automatically prevent myself from being greedy.
b) In taking a lot of small losses and ending most days red, I keep my ego in check and slowly ingrain into my head that my worth as a human being depends NOT on the outcome of the previous trade, which I think will over time let me see the market clearer and more relaxed.
This releases me from my fear of losing.



I wasnít really aware of that when I started what I thought about more of just an experiment, but in the long run Iím doing the opposite of what the average beginner is likely to do. Taking a lot of small gains, not sticking to stops and being lucky that it comes back most of the time (which is in my case often seeing a 3-5 point winner, which later ends up being a loss), but every now and then being completely rolled over by a large loss, which in my case is the trend Iím waiting for and gives me a large gain.


What are my goals?
  • Seeing if it can work out, and if yes also starting to add to my winners. Update on June 5th: Adding to winners got replaced by increasing size steadily. Not irresponsibly, but trying to be on the upper edge of where I'm comfortable.
  • Getting a better feeling for when the market is going sideways and I should stay out, and when it is more trending. But since I tend to undertrade, this is especially difficult and if in doubt, Iíll still rather take a trade too much.
  • Not avoiding shorting and getting a better feel for that. Update on June 5th: With my current understanding, I think shorting in the MES with the goal of catching a trend is not a sustainable idea. Because of Tick-size and the average range it produces and the degree of how much a underlying trend gets influenced by its bigger brothers, I feel that even my Tick-based trends get too much influenced by the daily-chart-uptrend
  • And in the future branching out to a second, uncorrelated market to hopefully be able to make the excessive drawdowns a bit smoother. Update on June 5th: Not planning to branch out anymore, since I think that's just an attempt to not trying to accept the reality of how markets just are. Drawdowns got already way smoother since the last three weeks, just by keeping myself better in check and having gained a bit more experience

The road I'm trying to go down is to not increase the amount of points I make, but to increase the amount of size I make them with.

It was definitely luck that my experiment started with a very good winning streak and Iím especially grateful for that, because it showed me that winners run way further than my mind was capable of grasping. If I started in week four, Iím pretty sure this would have ended the same way as countless other tests of methods before, with thinking ďThis shit isnít workingĒ.


Results at the end of August 21st, 2021 (only MES Trades, without M2K and former CFD junk-trades)
I'll start a new count in the future, but will still leave those results here for comparison

# of Trades: 92
Wins: 30
Losses: 61
B/E: 1

Points won: 341.00
Points Lost: 208.75
Winning %-age: 33%
Gave back from my wins: 61%


Week 1-3
# of Trades: 25
Wins: 12
Losses: 13
Endresult: +132.00 P


Week 4
# of Trades: 10
Wins: 1
Losses: 9
Endresult: -31.75 P


Week 5
# of Trades: 18
Wins: 3
Losses: 14
B/E: 1
Endresult: -24.00 P


Week 6
# of Trades: 6
Wins: 3
Losses: 3
Endresult: +1.50 P


Week 7

MES

# of Trades: 6
Wins: 4
Losses: 2
Endresult: +33.75 P

Prom Queens

# of Entries: 8
# of Exits: 4
Wins: 0
Losses: 4
Endresult: -4.8R


Week 8

MES

# of Trades: 5
Wins: 2
Losses: 3
Endresult: + 11.75P

Prom Queens

# of Entries: 5
# of Exits: 2
Wins: 1
Losses: 1
Endresult: -0.16R


Week 9

MES

# of Trades: 7
Wins: 3
Losses: 4
Endresult: + 19.75P

Prom Queens

# of Entries: 0 (stopped experiment)
# of Exits: 2
Wins: 0
Losses: 2
Endresult: -2.05R


Week 10

MES

# of Trades: 5
Wins: 1
Losses: 4
Endresult: + 3.25P

Prom Queens

# of Entries: 0
# of Exits: 0
Wins: 0
Losses: 0
Endresult: - (5 trades are still running at the moment)

Week 11

MES

# of Trades: 7
Wins: 0
Losses: 7
Endresult: -25.25P

Prom Queens

# of Entries: 0
# of Exits: 5
Wins: 4
Losses: 1
Endresult: +10.2R


Week 12

2 losing trades which were to a degree just playing around. More a time of self-reflection and thinking about my life


Week 13
(Not very focused week)

MES

# of Trades: 1
Wins: 1
Losses: 0
Endresult: +19.00P(only 1 contract)

Prom Queens

# of Entries: 5
# of Exits: 1
Wins: 0
Losses: 1
Endresult: -1.0R


Week 14
(Semi-focused week)

MES

# of Trades: 2 (one actually in MYM)
Wins: 0
Losses: 2
Endresult: - 7.00P

Prom Queens

# of Entries: 8
# of Exits: 5
Wins: 0
Losses: 5
Endresult: -5.0R (-1.13P Net)


Week 15

MES

Abandoned the MES and try to focus solely on the Prom-Queens.

Prom Queens

# of Entries: 8
# of Exits: 9
Wins: 2 (more of B/E though)
Losses: 7
Endresult: -1.47P (Net result, also subtracted commission cost already)

Week 16

Prom Queens

# of Entries: 16
# of Exits: 10
Wins: 1
Losses: 9
Endresult: -1.54P (Net result)

Week 17

Prom Queens

# of Entries:
# of Exits:
Wins:
Losses:
Endresult: - (Net result)
No way to catch a clear thought. Gotta do this another time

Week 18

Prom Queens

Roughly skimmed over 1 month / about 43 trades and it's just BS. Already so many losses, that the remaining 7 open trades maybe, if I'm lucky make up for them, but it's overall just BS.
Contemplating going back again to the MES, but trade it in a different style than I used to do and look if that could work.

Week 19

Prom Queens

Very little concentration week. More focus on watching webinars

Week 20

Concentration and motivation on the rise again.
Focus on webinars and reading.
If I'm honest, I'm not even interested in my Prom-Queens anymore, but really look
forward to dive into the MES again.

Week 21

Distracted week.
Watched webinars and started to put my strategy into writing.


Week 22

Started the first testphase for my new strategy on Friday.
Still distracted week, but it's going upwards again.

MES

# of Trades: 4
Wins: 1
Losses: 3
Endresult: -7.75P

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  #2 (permalink)
 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES
 
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Posts: 239 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 54 given, 125 received

Monday evening

Was away for a while, which probably saved me from a losing trade. Maybe over time even the missed wins and losses compensate themselves.

Trade #31
MES Standard 100Tr Trend Long
Was the break from the last downtrend high and a fresh P2 at the same time. I consider the trend as reversed at this point, which worked out here.

Big Picture 1000Tr



Executed on 100Tr



Win: +2.25points / 9 Ticks

Overall nice trade and flawless executed. They can't all go to the moon. But nevertheless still that "would have preferred more" feeling... Also pretty nervous throughout the trade, way more than in the morning.

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  #3 (permalink)
 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES
 
MrMojoRisin's Avatar
 
Posts: 239 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 54 given, 125 received


April 8th Thursday Evening till Friday Morning

Was mentally already in a very bad state and tired when I opened that one. Also started to doubt my methodology again and thought of "trying maybe other setups on the side". Left the computer for about an hour because I just couldn't watch it. Finally became so tired that I had to go to sleep. I wrote down that I'm exiting immediately when I wake up if I would have been stopped out already. Broke that rule to "give it a bit more room" and finally got out in a downward 1-2-3 for about 2 points less.
Totally wrecked me and had to shut down the charts.

Trade #29
MES Standard 100Tr Trend Long

Break of a small and a bit larger P2. Got some clear movement right at the break


Win: +6.75points / 27 Ticks


April 8th morning

Switched on the computer and saw that the B/O I waited for happened overnight. Felt bad. Looked at MNQ saw a "supergood" trend there which made me feel even worse and wasn't sure if I dropped into a low rational fomo-state or if I'm still able to think clear.
Entered into a dip into the open signal and put my stop where it would have been if I entered correctly. Got executed into a for my taste to steep dump and hit my stop without much hesitation. Also initial risk on higher side. Not really sure if that trade was legit or to avoid


Trade #28
MES "Special Case" Entry into dip via Limit order

Loss: -4.25 points / 17 Ticks

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  #4 (permalink)
 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES
 
MrMojoRisin's Avatar
 
Posts: 239 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 54 given, 125 received

Tuesday April 13th

Trade #32
MES Standard 100Tr Trend Long

Entry without hesitation, even though the dump and spike before the entry appeared to be a bit too quick.
Moved Stop once. Exit was tough. Aggression and feeling like a fuckin loser. Probably harder feelings, because it made a really nice spike to the ATH and in my mind I saw that thing already running way further.
If I get a signal I'll re-enter, despite the voice in the back of my head saying: "It likely won't go higher, it has too run out of steam soon"

Loss: -3.25P / -13 Ticks
2021-04-13 (3)


2021-04-13 (4)


Edit: This thing is dumping severly now. Likely no long today anymore


Trade #33
M2K Short

Aviodable DUMB loss. Looked on the calender in the morning and saw that there are Inflation numbers today and totally forgot about it. Executed me with tons of slippage and a moment later stopped me out.
Rationality on a critical point by now.
The positive thing though is to say, that these things today ran way further after stopping me out. That makes the losses a bit more bearable.


Loss: -3.2P / -32 Ticks

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 Sandpaddict 
Langley
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: IB
Trading: Futures
 
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Posts: 643 since Mar 2020

Im not sure how comforting it is but I really appreciate your commentary.

There is no question. You cannot trade without emotion. You can have confidence in yourself and your system. You can OVERIDE the decisions that your emotions signal but you cant get rid of them.

The funny thing is the more consistent I get the less those feeling drive me to do stupid things.

Are they there?... abso-friggin-lutely! But they are far more muted as I try not to let any one loss upset me. And why is that helpful? Cause I won't panic and sell/buy at the exact wrong time.

Look back at all your losses. Look forward and see how many times you could have at the very least broke even on that trade had you held?

This doesn't mean changing or not taking stops it just means you'll see you/me/all of us have trades where emotionals got the best of us and patience and a clear head normally would have gotten us out at alot better financially and EMOTIONALLY place.

This just happened to me as im writing this. The MES dropped way down passed my entry. Way! I use to panic and get out there. Or worse. Reverse. I have a stupid wide stop for emergencies but dont let that get hit. It is now in my direction almost two points. If I'd panicked Id be down DOUBLE!

This trade might not workout. But Im working on becoming a better emotional trader over everything else.

Keep it up and good luck!

(P.S. just hit my 12 tick target)

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  #6 (permalink)
 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES
 
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Posts: 239 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 54 given, 125 received

Still Tuesday April 13th

Trade #34

M2K Standard Trend Short

Theory "Is still in a downtrend on the Big Picture" appeared to be correct here.
Very glad I took this trade and important for gaining trust.
Was already in a pretty insecure state and another loss would have quite sure (unfortunately) ruined my day.
Executed nicely, but tended a bit to think about following to closely with my stop and had one a bit unclear stop-situation.


Big Picture
2021-04-13 (13)


Execution

2021-04-13 (11)


2021-04-13 (12)


Moved stop 5 times
Win: +22.2P / +222Ticks

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 Sandpaddict 
Langley
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: IB
Trading: Futures
 
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Posts: 643 since Mar 2020

Beautiful trade!
MrMojoRisin View Post
Still Tuesday April 13th

Trade #34

M2K Standard Trend Short

Theory "Is still in a downtrend on the Big Picture" appeared to be correct here.
Very glad I took this trade and important for gaining trust.
Was already in a pretty insecure state and another loss would have quite sure (unfortunately) ruined my day.
Executed nicely, but tended a bit to think about following to closely with my stop and had one a bit unclear stop-situation.


Big Picture
2021-04-13 (13)


Execution

2021-04-13 (11)


2021-04-13 (12)


Moved stop 5 times
Win: +22.2P / +222Ticks

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  #8 (permalink)
 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES
 
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Posts: 239 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 54 given, 125 received


Sandpaddict View Post
Im not sure how comforting it is but I really appreciate your commentary.

There is no question. You cannot trade without emotion. You can have confidence in yourself and your system. You can OVERIDE the decisions that your emotions signal but you cant get rid of them.

The funny thing is the more consistent I get the less those feeling drive me to do stupid things.

Are they there?... abso-friggin-lutely! But they are far more muted as I try not to let any one loss upset me. And why is that helpful? Cause I won't panic and sell/buy at the exact wrong time.

Look back at all your losses. Look forward and see how many times you could have at the very least broke even on that trade had you held?

This doesn't mean changing or not taking stops it just means you'll see you/me/all of us have trades where emotionals got the best of us and patience and a clear head normally would have gotten us out at alot better financially and EMOTIONALLY place.

This just happened to me as im writing this. The MES dropped way down passed my entry. Way! I use to panic and get out there. Or worse. Reverse. I have a stupid wide stop for emergencies but dont let that get hit. It is now in my direction almost two points. If I'd panicked Id be down DOUBLE!

This trade might not workout. But Im working on becoming a better emotional trader over everything else.

Keep it up and good luck!

(P.S. just hit my 12 tick target)

Sent using the futures.io mobile app


My biggest problem is not so much breaking my rules when in a trade or revenge trading, but after a few losses being scared of taking the next trade, and also trusting my perception of the chart in which direction the trend is going.
Depends on my overall mental state on the day, sometimes I really don't care about a loss, and sometimes I feel like the last POS after just a small loss, even if I know on a logical basis that it's likely just a normal losing trade and the bigger mistake even is trying to avoid those losses.
So by trying to be aware of my emotions and kinda tracking them, I hope to finally come more at peace with them.

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 Sandpaddict 
Langley
 
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MrMojoRisin View Post
My biggest problem is not so much breaking my rules when in a trade or revenge trading, but after a few losses being scared of taking the next trade, and also trusting my perception of the chart in which direction the trend is going.
Depends on my overall mental state on the day, sometimes I really don't care about a loss, and sometimes I feel like the last POS after just a small loss, even if I know on a logical basis that it's likely just a normal losing trade and the bigger mistake even is trying to avoid those losses.
So by trying to be aware of my emotions and kinda tracking them, I hope to finally come more at peace with them.

Ya kinda goes to what I was saying. Its a mental game. You could pick the trend right at the moment and with good momentum or buy in a perfect pullback pocket in an uptrend and a certain amount will still fail. Its just probabilities.

At that point you must go OK. That sucked but thats the game. Going in I knew there was ALWAYS a possiblity of a loss. Next.

Now I seem to a have no affinity to money as in the past I'd drop $2500 lose in a week. Wait a week or two put $1000. Blow it. Wait a week or two put $1500 in. Blow it.

But it WAS NEVER the money that upset me as much as my INABILITY TO GET IT! To realize what I didn't know. The thing that successful traders all seem to have even though all there strategies were different that I was missing.

Well no system or strategy worked until I realized I WAS THE SYSTEM. I WAS THE STRATEGY!

Give a hundred people a system and over time you'll have 100 different results.

Also nows a good time to study poition sizing as if theres any real secret to this game. Thats it!

I'm a breakeven trader after 6 years. (I don't have to add to my account anymore but I can't pull chunks of money out yet) tried too much before settling on futures exclusively. So take what I say as just some guy on a forum but the mental side is the ONLY side thats all im really saying.

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  #10 (permalink)
 MrMojoRisin 
Graz/Austria
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: MES
 
MrMojoRisin's Avatar
 
Posts: 239 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 54 given, 125 received


Wednesday April 14th

Trade #35

MES Standard Long

Switched on computer in the morning and had planned to first go over the previous day's trades. I recall yesterday in the evening seeing the MES making a good move, but I was already mentally very drained and could not stand it giving back again from my M2K gain. I thought "Tomorrow is another day". So I turned on the computer and saw that opportunity, which I'm not quite sure if it was that good or if it was more of a hurry/regret of missing yesterday's move action.
The 1-2-3 on the big picture consists only out of three bars, which could be a sign speaking against the trade. --> Trade #32 was also similar in that regard, which was also a loss
2021-04-14


2021-04-14 (2)


Loss: -3.25P / -13 Ticks



Trade #36

MES Standard Long

It sucks, but it's just a fuckin trade! Again doubt is rising if I should take the next trade since this bitch is always making 1 or 2 Tick new highs and then craps away. Also qustion is, if my stop is too tight for consitions today.

Loss: -3.0P / -12 Ticks

Trade #37

MES Standard Long

Already in a scared state. Big picture Uptrend was broken shortly but then build up again and to what I consider intact. Entered into small trend and speculated for a P2 break also in the bigger trend. The third loser in a row, which hurts, but I think this was nevertheless the right decision to take this trade and refusing to would be an error.

Thought on the side: The more it gets extended on the daily chart without pullback, there has to come a period where long trades likely have to turn out mostly losers, this is when the intermediate trend starts to turn until it is a downtrend and then likely shorts will start to have a period where they work well until the pullback on the daily is finished and my big picture trend starts to turn upward again and the cycle starts from new on.

Loss: -2.75P / -11 Ticks

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