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MrMojoRisin's Journal


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MrMojoRisin's Journal

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received

Welcome to my journal fellow trader!


What are my convictions about the market?

The market is more likely to keep going in its current direction than to reverse and the larger the time-frame, the more reliable this becomes.
Also do I think that we project our beliefs about the market and life in general onto the chart, which skews our perception into whatever we want to see, which then determines our trading decisions or how we develop our systems/methodologies.
For myself the fear of losing is probably the biggest problem.

How do I define my methodology?

For my big picture, which gives me the direction Iím looking for to make a trade, I use a 1000 Trades chart. Ideally the trend is there in a pullback, but has not necessarily to. I then look for a trend reversal on the small picture, which is a 100 Trades chart, or just an ordinary pullback, and open a position into the next breakout above the current high, with my stop at the previous low.
I then follow with my stop, always putting it below the next low as soon as it breaks above its current high.

Especially defining the direction of the trend on the big picture is a difficulty for me and in a lot of situations pretty subjective, but thatís also intended because with more experience I think I can develop my own individual edge exactly there.

In the past I used to focus on shorting penny stocks, making tons of excel-sheets and dozens of rules when exactly to do what, but despite it hardly showing useful results, there always occurred some situation that would require some new rule and it was overall just a pain in the ass.
Now I realize that what I did, I did in the intention of creating that holy grail 99% winning strategy, because of my fear of losing.
Iím through with that and thatís why I like the subjective part in my methodology. It gives me more freedom and allows me to understand the market and its behaviour from a more unbiased perspective, not trying to force my rules on it.

Why do I think my methodology should work?

Because
a) In buying only breakouts, I automatically can not pick bottoms and tops and in only exiting when I get stopped out, I accomplish the same when Iím in a winning trade. I always sacrifice a part of my paper gain for a potential bigger gain. So with that I automatically prevent myself from being greedy.
b) In taking a lot of small losses and ending most days red, I keep my ego in check and slowly ingrain into my head that my worth as a human being depends NOT on the outcome of the previous trade, which I think will over time let me see the market clearer and more relaxed.
This releases me from my fear of losing.



I wasnít really aware of that when I started what I thought about more of just an experiment, but in the long run Iím doing the opposite of what the average beginner is likely to do. Taking a lot of small gains, not sticking to stops and being lucky that it comes back most of the time (which is in my case often seeing a 3-5 point winner, which later ends up being a loss), but every now and then being completely rolled over by a large loss, which in my case is the trend Iím waiting for and gives me a large gain.


What are my goals?
  • Seeing if it can work out, and if yes also starting to add to my winners.
  • Getting a better feeling for when the market is going sideways and I should stay out, and when it is more trending. But since I tend to undertrade, this is especially difficult and if in doubt, Iíll still rather take a trade too much.
  • Not avoiding shorting and getting a better feel for that.
  • And in the future branching out to a second, uncorrelated market to hopefully be able to make the excessive drawdowns a bit smoother.



It was definitely luck that my experiment started with a very good winning streak and Iím especially grateful for that, because it showed me that winners run way further than my mind was capable of grasping. If I started in week four, Iím pretty sure this would have ended the same way as countless other tests of methods before, with thinking ďThis shit isnít workingĒ.

If it werenít for this graph, Iíd think I must be insane trading the way I do, but I think thereís a good chance that in the long run it can really work.

*Picture to come soon*

The mistake Iíve made, was sizing up way too fast because I thought ďI got itĒ. So the spike was 1 and 2 contract trades and the decline 3 contracts. So Iíll stay at 3 contracts now for a while and hopefully will catch a few nice trends in the near future.

Results at the end of May 5th, 2021 (only MES Trades, without M2K and former CFD junk-trades)

# of Trades: 46
Wins: 15
Losses: 31
B/E: 1

Points won: 189.50
Points Lost: 104.25

Winning %-age: 33%
Gave back from my wins: 55%












_______________________________________________________________________

Monday morning

Took Friday off and forbid myself to look at the charts on the weekend. MES looked like there would have been a legit trade for me on Friday. Felt some regret about that.
Also feel some hurry to trade because I have to get away from the computer later today.

Trade #30
MES Reversal Bar Long on M10 into open signal
First trade branching out to trade reversal bars on the M10 as well. Saw the bar late but still open to trade it legit, so I put in my order.

Big Picture 60min



10min



Win: +1.25point / 5 Ticks

Somehow I don't like the trade. Maybe it's unfamiliarity and I feel also the initial risk for those reversal bars is a bit too high. Uncomfortable with them.... Also I feel like "they have a low chance of running for a longer period of time". However.... Pretty confused for a Monday morning

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received

Monday evening

Was away for a while, which probably saved me from a losing trade. Maybe over time even the missed wins and losses compensate themselves.

Trade #31
MES Standard 100Tr Trend Long
Was the break from the last downtrend high and a fresh P2 at the same time. I consider the trend as reversed at this point, which worked out here.

Big Picture 1000Tr



Executed on 100Tr



Win: +2.25points / 9 Ticks

Overall nice trade and flawless executed. They can't all go to the moon. But nevertheless still that "would have preferred more" feeling... Also pretty nervous throughout the trade, way more than in the morning.

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received


April 8th Thursday Evening till Friday Morning

Was mentally already in a very bad state and tired when I opened that one. Also started to doubt my methodology again and thought of "trying maybe other setups on the side". Left the computer for about an hour because I just couldn't watch it. Finally became so tired that I had to go to sleep. I wrote down that I'm exiting immediately when I wake up if I would have been stopped out already. Broke that rule to "give it a bit more room" and finally got out in a downward 1-2-3 for about 2 points less.
Totally wrecked me and had to shut down the charts.

Trade #29
MES Standard 100Tr Trend Long

Break of a small and a bit larger P2. Got some clear movement right at the break


Win: +6.75points / 27 Ticks


April 8th morning

Switched on the computer and saw that the B/O I waited for happened overnight. Felt bad. Looked at MNQ saw a "supergood" trend there which made me feel even worse and wasn't sure if I dropped into a low rational fomo-state or if I'm still able to think clear.
Entered into a dip into the open signal and put my stop where it would have been if I entered correctly. Got executed into a for my taste to steep dump and hit my stop without much hesitation. Also initial risk on higher side. Not really sure if that trade was legit or to avoid


Trade #28
MES "Special Case" Entry into dip via Limit order

Loss: -4.25 points / 17 Ticks

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received

Tuesday April 13th

Trade #32
MES Standard 100Tr Trend Long

Entry without hesitation, even though the dump and spike before the entry appeared to be a bit too quick.
Moved Stop once. Exit was tough. Aggression and feeling like a fuckin loser. Probably harder feelings, because it made a really nice spike to the ATH and in my mind I saw that thing already running way further.
If I get a signal I'll re-enter, despite the voice in the back of my head saying: "It likely won't go higher, it has too run out of steam soon"

Loss: -3.25P / -13 Ticks
2021-04-13 (3)


2021-04-13 (4)


Edit: This thing is dumping severly now. Likely no long today anymore


Trade #33
M2K Short

Aviodable DUMB loss. Looked on the calender in the morning and saw that there are Inflation numbers today and totally forgot about it. Executed me with tons of slippage and a moment later stopped me out.
Rationality on a critical point by now.
The positive thing though is to say, that these things today ran way further after stopping me out. That makes the losses a bit more bearable.


Loss: -3.2P / -32 Ticks

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 Sandpaddict 
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Im not sure how comforting it is but I really appreciate your commentary.

There is no question. You cannot trade without emotion. You can have confidence in yourself and your system. You can OVERIDE the decisions that your emotions signal but you cant get rid of them.

The funny thing is the more consistent I get the less those feeling drive me to do stupid things.

Are they there?... abso-friggin-lutely! But they are far more muted as I try not to let any one loss upset me. And why is that helpful? Cause I won't panic and sell/buy at the exact wrong time.

Look back at all your losses. Look forward and see how many times you could have at the very least broke even on that trade had you held?

This doesn't mean changing or not taking stops it just means you'll see you/me/all of us have trades where emotionals got the best of us and patience and a clear head normally would have gotten us out at alot better financially and EMOTIONALLY place.

This just happened to me as im writing this. The MES dropped way down passed my entry. Way! I use to panic and get out there. Or worse. Reverse. I have a stupid wide stop for emergencies but dont let that get hit. It is now in my direction almost two points. If I'd panicked Id be down DOUBLE!

This trade might not workout. But Im working on becoming a better emotional trader over everything else.

Keep it up and good luck!

(P.S. just hit my 12 tick target)

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received

Still Tuesday April 13th

Trade #34

M2K Standard Trend Short

Theory "Is still in a downtrend on the Big Picture" appeared to be correct here.
Very glad I took this trade and important for gaining trust.
Was already in a pretty insecure state and another loss would have quite sure (unfortunately) ruined my day.
Executed nicely, but tended a bit to think about following to closely with my stop and had one a bit unclear stop-situation.


Big Picture
2021-04-13 (13)


Execution

2021-04-13 (11)


2021-04-13 (12)


Moved stop 5 times
Win: +22.2P / +222Ticks

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Beautiful trade!
MrMojoRisin View Post
Still Tuesday April 13th

Trade #34

M2K Standard Trend Short

Theory "Is still in a downtrend on the Big Picture" appeared to be correct here.
Very glad I took this trade and important for gaining trust.
Was already in a pretty insecure state and another loss would have quite sure (unfortunately) ruined my day.
Executed nicely, but tended a bit to think about following to closely with my stop and had one a bit unclear stop-situation.


Big Picture
2021-04-13 (13)


Execution

2021-04-13 (11)


2021-04-13 (12)


Moved stop 5 times
Win: +22.2P / +222Ticks

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received


Sandpaddict View Post
Im not sure how comforting it is but I really appreciate your commentary.

There is no question. You cannot trade without emotion. You can have confidence in yourself and your system. You can OVERIDE the decisions that your emotions signal but you cant get rid of them.

The funny thing is the more consistent I get the less those feeling drive me to do stupid things.

Are they there?... abso-friggin-lutely! But they are far more muted as I try not to let any one loss upset me. And why is that helpful? Cause I won't panic and sell/buy at the exact wrong time.

Look back at all your losses. Look forward and see how many times you could have at the very least broke even on that trade had you held?

This doesn't mean changing or not taking stops it just means you'll see you/me/all of us have trades where emotionals got the best of us and patience and a clear head normally would have gotten us out at alot better financially and EMOTIONALLY place.

This just happened to me as im writing this. The MES dropped way down passed my entry. Way! I use to panic and get out there. Or worse. Reverse. I have a stupid wide stop for emergencies but dont let that get hit. It is now in my direction almost two points. If I'd panicked Id be down DOUBLE!

This trade might not workout. But Im working on becoming a better emotional trader over everything else.

Keep it up and good luck!

(P.S. just hit my 12 tick target)

Sent using the futures.io mobile app


My biggest problem is not so much breaking my rules when in a trade or revenge trading, but after a few losses being scared of taking the next trade, and also trusting my perception of the chart in which direction the trend is going.
Depends on my overall mental state on the day, sometimes I really don't care about a loss, and sometimes I feel like the last POS after just a small loss, even if I know on a logical basis that it's likely just a normal losing trade and the bigger mistake even is trying to avoid those losses.
So by trying to be aware of my emotions and kinda tracking them, I hope to finally come more at peace with them.

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MrMojoRisin View Post
My biggest problem is not so much breaking my rules when in a trade or revenge trading, but after a few losses being scared of taking the next trade, and also trusting my perception of the chart in which direction the trend is going.
Depends on my overall mental state on the day, sometimes I really don't care about a loss, and sometimes I feel like the last POS after just a small loss, even if I know on a logical basis that it's likely just a normal losing trade and the bigger mistake even is trying to avoid those losses.
So by trying to be aware of my emotions and kinda tracking them, I hope to finally come more at peace with them.

Ya kinda goes to what I was saying. Its a mental game. You could pick the trend right at the moment and with good momentum or buy in a perfect pullback pocket in an uptrend and a certain amount will still fail. Its just probabilities.

At that point you must go OK. That sucked but thats the game. Going in I knew there was ALWAYS a possiblity of a loss. Next.

Now I seem to a have no affinity to money as in the past I'd drop $2500 lose in a week. Wait a week or two put $1000. Blow it. Wait a week or two put $1500 in. Blow it.

But it WAS NEVER the money that upset me as much as my INABILITY TO GET IT! To realize what I didn't know. The thing that successful traders all seem to have even though all there strategies were different that I was missing.

Well no system or strategy worked until I realized I WAS THE SYSTEM. I WAS THE STRATEGY!

Give a hundred people a system and over time you'll have 100 different results.

Also nows a good time to study poition sizing as if theres any real secret to this game. Thats it!

I'm a breakeven trader after 6 years. (I don't have to add to my account anymore but I can't pull chunks of money out yet) tried too much before settling on futures exclusively. So take what I say as just some guy on a forum but the mental side is the ONLY side thats all im really saying.

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received


Wednesday April 14th

Trade #35

MES Standard Long

Switched on computer in the morning and had planned to first go over the previous day's trades. I recall yesterday in the evening seeing the MES making a good move, but I was already mentally very drained and could not stand it giving back again from my M2K gain. I thought "Tomorrow is another day". So I turned on the computer and saw that opportunity, which I'm not quite sure if it was that good or if it was more of a hurry/regret of missing yesterday's move action.
The 1-2-3 on the big picture consists only out of three bars, which could be a sign speaking against the trade. --> Trade #32 was also similar in that regard, which was also a loss
2021-04-14


2021-04-14 (2)


Loss: -3.25P / -13 Ticks



Trade #36

MES Standard Long

It sucks, but it's just a fuckin trade! Again doubt is rising if I should take the next trade since this bitch is always making 1 or 2 Tick new highs and then craps away. Also qustion is, if my stop is too tight for consitions today.

Loss: -3.0P / -12 Ticks

Trade #37

MES Standard Long

Already in a scared state. Big picture Uptrend was broken shortly but then build up again and to what I consider intact. Entered into small trend and speculated for a P2 break also in the bigger trend. The third loser in a row, which hurts, but I think this was nevertheless the right decision to take this trade and refusing to would be an error.

Thought on the side: The more it gets extended on the daily chart without pullback, there has to come a period where long trades likely have to turn out mostly losers, this is when the intermediate trend starts to turn until it is a downtrend and then likely shorts will start to have a period where they work well until the pullback on the daily is finished and my big picture trend starts to turn upward again and the cycle starts from new on.

Loss: -2.75P / -11 Ticks

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received

Thursday April 15th

Trade #38

MES Standard Long

Was on the big picture pretty much what I like to see. Trend had already reversed back up and it came nicely from below. No problem with the "It can't go higher"-illusion here.
No rules broken, but thought of exiting into a downward 1-2-3 if need be, because from 2nd to 3rd stop was just too much room at that time.

Big picture
2021-04-15 (6)



2021-04-15 (7)


Moved stop 4 times
Win: +13.75 points / +55 Ticks

Trade #39

M2K Standard Long

Wanted to get in into a pullback into the first spike, but it gave me no opportunity. Entered after it broke above the consolidation. Wasn't really what I had intended, but kinda "forgot" about what I intended and entered anyways. Not entirely wrong I think, but maybe a trade more to avoid.
Also had concerns about correlation to the MES with that, since the chart was pretty much the same. But didn't move with it.

Big picture
2021-04-15 (5)




2021-04-15 (4)


Loss: -3.50 points / -35 Ticks

Trade #40

M2K Standard Long

This was bullshit. Almost impossible to trade that sucker after the cash-opening. Idea was also to wait for it to reverse on the small picture as long as the uptrend on the big picture is intact. That bitch moved so fast that I hardly was able to put my order in at the exact price. Was on the top of my stresslevel and stopped me out way too fast timewise. Mentally not bearable such quick losses and I wouldn't even be able to enter a second time if I had to. Moves way too aggressive for me. Gotta stop this Russel for a while.
I'm also wondering if I'm victim of another illusion here. Those "tiny-tick-movers" appear to give me tons of opportunity and build a lot of small trends, whereas the MES seems slow and not moving much distance wise. But I kinda think that in the long run I'd be better of with that.


Big picture
2021-04-15 (9)




2021-04-15 (8)


Loss: -4.60 points / -46 Ticks

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
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Friday April 16th

Trade #41

MES Long

Very satisfied with this one. Entry into smallest trend, quickly broke P2 of medium trend and finally also to a new ATH on the largest trend.
Built up fine without the stop being to far away at any point in the trade. Also pretty calm throughout the entire trade. Love it! Thanks market for this one!

Big picture
2021-04-16 (2)


2021-04-16 (3)


Moved stop 6 times
Win: +13.25 points / +53 Ticks


Trade #42

MES long

Don't wanted to take this trade, but I forced myself to do, just because my gut said no. No idea if it was the right thing to do or not. Fuckin painful loss. Only gave back 1/4 from the previous trade, but I could fuckin freak out. This loss upsets me more than the 3 losses in a row the other day. Also the fast movement after the cash opening made it even worse.
It's just a fuckin trade!!! Done for this week!

Big pic




Loss: -3P / -12 Ticks

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received

Monday April 19th

Trade #43

MES Long

The largest uptrend was already cracked, but the medium and short term trend gave me a nice "coming from below" scenario, I figured I should give a try. But probably the odds were lower than if the large trend had not cracked below its last low. On the other hand, since it bounced pretty strong back up from that low, one could also have interpreted this as successfully tested the low.
However, not a bad trade.

Big picture
2021-04-19 (4)


2021-04-19 (2)


Loss: -3.25P / -13 Ticks

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MrMojoRisin
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Wednesday April 21st

Yesterday no trade. Had in one long order which wasn't reached and later on 2 short orders. One wasn't reached and one had the risklevel too far away that I cancelled it. Also had an "imaginary short order" in, which would have led into the huge downtrend, which led to me feeling betrayed and missing out of "my profits", which mentally crushed me. I am so long-biased in this market, that I have huge problems shorting and I always think "That's going to be a loser for sure". Also on the weekend I spent too much time with calculating the last two weeks results into the future, which also puts more pressure and not wanting to lose on me, which makes me fearful and alters my perception.
Difficult state I'm in this week.

Trade #44

MES Standard Long

Largest trend has already turned, altough with just very minor higher lows. Was a bit hesitant, but entered and worked out nice, even though I still have that big short move from yesterday in my mind and "would have liked to have a big move on the long side today".
Those fuckin would have should have thoughts start to suck immensely!!!

Big picture
2021-04-21 (3)


2021-04-21 (2)


Stop moved 3 times
Win: +3.75P / +15 Ticks

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
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Still Wednesday April 21st

Trade #45

MES Long

On Tuesday I was pretty down and started to doubt everything again. On Wednesday morning I thought of trying different setups again and maybe to open some long-term positions in stocks, because there will likely "never come a good trade in the MES again" and also doubted my ability to recognize the trend-direction again.
Entered this trade shortly after the cash open and was nervous as hell and frickin scared of having a loss.

Big picture

2021-04-21 (13)



2021-04-21 (8)


2021-04-21 (9)


2021-04-21 (11)


2021-04-21 (12)


NEVER underestimate how far this thing can run and don't be scared of entering even after a big looking spike because of beeing resentful of missing the first leg up. The trend is more likely to continue than to reverse. That should tell me everything I need to know!
Let the stop at one point on purpose "on the long leash", which saved me from getting stopped out already earlier in the move.

Stop moved 11 times (6.5 hours in it)
Win: +39.5P / +158 Ticks

Thank you, you pretty, sexy market for this present!

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
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Thursday April 22nd

Trade #46

As soon as I opened the chart in the morning I immediately saw an opportunity, but I didn't want to jump in right away, so I waited and took the next entry. Unfortunately loss, but doesn't bother me at all today.

Big pic
2021-04-22 (4)


2021-04-22 (2)


Loss: -3.0P / -12 Ticks

Trade #47

Got stopped out with the cash-open. Large P3 also cracked, so luckily the market made the decision for me and I don't have to bother with another entry. Was a bit painful this 2nd loss for the day, but nothing compared to other times.


Big pic





Loss: -3.75P / -15 Ticks

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  #17 (permalink)
MrMojoRisin
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Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
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Friday April 23rd

Trade #48

Unreal. Almost exactly like Trade #45. Entered around the same time @ cash-open, big picture very similar, and before it made its first leg up after my entry, it chopped around in the same "dangerous appearing" manner, where it made a lower low before it starts the first severe move up.
I remember losing one trade on Monday and making no trade on Tuesday because I decided not to short until I feel more in the flow for that. On Tuesday evening I felt like shit. Is it over now? Will there ever come a trade for me again? But a small part of me said: "What's wrong with you? There are still 3 days left for the week! Chill down dude and don't be such an emotional puss*"
Turned out to be the best week since I started to stick to my methodology as strict as I can.
Some part of me still thinks: "What if you're just lucky and it's just a very favorable market phase?", but on the other hand if I only trade in trend-direction, always cut my losses and let my profits run, I think at the worst I'll chop around break-even, but I won't lose any severe money as long as I stick to my rules. So stay humble, be grateful and stick to your fuckin rules ALL THE TIME, WITHOUT A SINGLE EXCEPTION!

Big picture


2021-04-23 (3)


Detail view


2021-04-23 (4)


2021-04-23 (5)


2021-04-23 (6)


Moved stop 10times

Win: +37.75P / +151 Ticks

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  #18 (permalink)
MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received

Monday April 26th

Trade #49

Likely a non-trend phase on the big picture / medium term trend. A bit difficult to say because the largest and medium trend and also kinda the smallest seem to be not that clearly separated today. But because of my "better a trade too much"-rule I took it anyhow. I can only start to understand those situations better with money on the line. Also was it a bit of a case of "don't be afraid to enter even after a large looking spike".
I can't really tell by now if it is a situation better to avoid a trade, or if there was actually a good enough probability for the trade working out.
Emotional no problem at all taking this loss.

Big pic

2021-04-26 (3)



2021-04-26 (2)


Loss: -3.75P / -15 Ticks


Trade #50

The kind of situation I like to see. Made a pullback in the medium-term trend and a pullback in the small trend and also close to the Largest trend high which is also the ATH. So possibility of three P2's to break.
No regrets about this one. Also no problem entering it after the first loss.
Took another loss, but just minimal bad feelings. If I think about it, I could lose 20 trades in a row and would have just lost the previous week's gains. So there's really no reason at all to complain about two losing trades. Not even about 4 or 5.

Big pic


2021-04-26 (7)


2021-04-26 (6)


Loss: -3.25P / -13 Ticks

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  #19 (permalink)
MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received

Tuesday April 27th

Shit day!

Trade #51

I think the idea was not bad, but I'm also kinda wondering if I expect too much. With every trade I'm waiting for the next 40P runup.
Not a big problem taking this loss.

Big picture


2021-04-27 (3)




2021-04-27 (2)


Loss: -4.00P / -16 Ticks


Trade #52

Emotional key-trade. 4th loss in a row and I could trash my fuckin computer. Got slammed down 2 points instantly 2 times just right before I could have moved my stop almost to b/e. Blamed some "fuckin wall street guy for ruining this trade with his stupid large orders".
Start asking myself again if I have any clue at all what I'm doing and if all until now was just plain luck. Time will tell, but it just sucks. Sized up 1 contract this week and lose every damn, frickin trade.
Also 2 Ticks slippage in this trade which is likely also to blame on this fuckin wall street sucker

Loss: -4.75P / -19 Ticks


2021-04-27 (8)


2021-04-27 (6)



Trade #53

"I think it is my setup". Just a damn bad joke. No idea anymore if it's a good thing to take every trade or if I should stop if they just won't work on a particular day. However, stopped for today. 5th loss in a row. Doesn't even feel real anymore and start to lose the "touch" already. Feels like I'm not taking it serious enough anymore and like I'm just dumb revenge trading. CONFUSION



2021-04-27 (12)


2021-04-27 (11)


Loss: -3.75P / -15 Ticks

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  #20 (permalink)
MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received

Wednesday April 28th

Trade #54


2021-04-28 (4)


2021-04-28 (2)


Loss: -3.75P / -15 Ticks

Trade #55

7th loss in a row. In a situation now that I have no experience with. Somehow being scared to take the next trade shifts more into being scared to not take the next trade which could be a winner. In this trade again out of nowhere it got slammed down within a millisecond 3 points, which makes the loss even more painful. "Like someone does this on purpose"
Something is telling me that it would be a mistake to become hesitant taking trades. What this losing streak definitely is teaching me is, that sizing up is way more careful to do than I thought.
Also I'm wondering if my stop could be too tight.


2021-04-28 (8)


2021-04-28 (7)



At least I could move my stop 2 times for a smaller loss
Loss: -2.25P / -9 Ticks

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  #21 (permalink)
MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received

Still Wednesday

Trade #56

Not really sure if that was legit concerning big picture valid uptrend. The main thought I was aware of was "What if this thing starts to spike now straight without pullback for letting me in, so I rather take this entry to be in for sure".
As the trade was in, it became so painful that I had to put in an alert and go away from the screen. This 8th loss in a row fuckin shattered my soul. Felt like a complete failure after it.


2021-04-28 (11)


2021-04-28 (13)


Loss: -3.0P / -12 Ticks

After I calmed down I looked at my results since I started to stick to my methdology and it astounds me that they actually are pretty good altough it feels to me like I'm close to blowing up.
Since March 31st I've did 33 Trades in the MES
Losing Trades: 21 / Points lost: 71.25
Winning Trades: 12 / Points won: 174.75
So my winning %-age for these trades is 36%, but I still have 59% of my profits. There were 3 really good runners and 4 medium-good runners which basically made the profits.
I still have no idea how much luck and good market conditions there were this month, but even if I could keep just around 30% of my profits in the long run that would be all I could ask for.

If someone who is experienced in trying to catch intraday trends and ride them or trend following in general is reading this, I'd really appreciate some thoughts on these numbers and maybe my trades.
I know 33 Trades is not much, but I think 33 Trades over a month traded with money on the line are telling more than just some backtested trades.

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received

Thursday April 29th

Trade #57

Big picture chart felt way better than the chopped up chart from all the losers. Maybe at least some of such losers will become avoidable with more experience. Now it feels like there was maybe not only "It's my duty to trade every signal", but also some fomo involved. It's still a problem to stay objective all the time and to recognize when objectivity is gone.
However there were also "instant-down-slammers" in this trade which make losing/giving back way worse than if it moves normal. At least I see some light at the end of the tunnel now.

Big picture
2021-04-29 (3)


2021-04-29 (2)


Moved stop 3 times
Win: +1.50P / +6 Ticks

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  #23 (permalink)
MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received

Friday April 30th

Trade #58

No idea what I'm doing anymore. I'm starting to doubt that my "methodology" isn't just some random construct I've built in my head that just accidentally worked for the past three weeks and now reality is catching up. Horrible week. Thinking of going back and trying the Tailor Trading Technique again or trying to scalp breakouts for just a few ticks. Or was it just one bad week and I should go on as the previous three weeks?! No fuckin clue, but this amount of losses can't be normal anymore...

Big pic


2021-04-30 (8)



2021-04-30 (7)


Loss: -3.75P / -15 Ticks


Edit:

If I look at the chart this way, this trade was NOT LEGIT, because medium-term we were in a non-trend phase. So this should be an avoidable loss.


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MrMojoRisin View Post
Still Wednesday

Trade #56

Not really sure if that was legit concerning big picture valid uptrend. The main thought I was aware of was "What if this thing starts to spike now straight without pullback for letting me in, so I rather take this entry to be in for sure".
As the trade was in, it became so painful that I had to put in an alert and go away from the screen. This 8th loss in a row fuckin shattered my soul. Felt like a complete failure after it.


2021-04-28 (11)


2021-04-28 (13)


Loss: -3.0P / -12 Ticks

After I calmed down I looked at my results since I started to stick to my methdology and it astounds me that they actually are pretty good altough it feels to me like I'm close to blowing up.
Since March 31st I've did 33 Trades in the MES
Losing Trades: 21 / Points lost: 71.25
Winning Trades: 12 / Points won: 174.75
So my winning %-age for these trades is 36%, but I still have 59% of my profits. There were 3 really good runners and 4 medium-good runners which basically made the profits.
I still have no idea how much luck and good market conditions there were this month, but even if I could keep just around 30% of my profits in the long run that would be all I could ask for.

If someone who is experienced in trying to catch intraday trends and ride them or trend following in general is reading this, I'd really appreciate some thoughts on these numbers and maybe my trades.
I know 33 Trades is not much, but I think 33 Trades over a month traded with money on the line are telling more than just some backtested trades.

Heya Mojo,

Not sure if this will help but it has helped me alot.

Two parts.

One) when you get your signal and are ready to enter... don't... pretend you did or put your entry where you don't think it'll go. Like REALLY don't think it will go. You will be surprised how far it will go sometimes.

Its the - ďBetter to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than in the air wishing you were on the ground.Ē - situation.

Two) scale. If you can enter where you'd like but put another contract on where your stop would be. ***CRITICAL*** your loss if stopped out on both contracts can't be more than on the one contract trade so you have to adjust but in this way you don't need to be SO right in predicting. Which I don't think anyone can do anyway.

Test or not thats cool. Just trying to be helpful.

Cheers.

P.S. I think your really hard on yourself. Your stats are good man. Your ALWAYS going to have losses they just have to be relative to your wins.

Don't get to down.

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MrMojoRisin
Graz/Austria
 
 
Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
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Sandpaddict View Post
Heya Mojo,

Not sure if this will help but it has helped me alot.

Two parts.

One) when you get your signal and are ready to enter... don't... pretend you did or put your entry where you don't think it'll go. Like REALLY don't think it will go. You will be surprised how far it will go sometimes.

Its the - ďBetter to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than in the air wishing you were on the ground.Ē - situation.

Two) scale. If you can enter where you'd like but put another contract on where your stop would be. ***CRITICAL*** your loss if stopped out on both contracts can't be more than on the one contract trade so you have to adjust but in this way you don't need to be SO right in predicting. Which I don't think anyone can do anyway.

Test or not thats cool. Just trying to be helpful.

Cheers.

P.S. I think your really hard on yourself. Your stats are good man. Your ALWAYS going to have losses they just have to be relative to your wins.

Don't get to down.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app


Thanks for your words man!

I've tried a lot like those tricks you're describing, but I came to another conclusion I'm trying to put into practice.
A trend is more likely to continue than to reverse, but if we look on a chart we tend to only look on the points where it reverses and so we automatically tend to make our trades based on these points, which turns the odds in the long run against the trader.
And we also hate to take losses, so we automatically gravitate (almost unconsciously) towards trying to build our trades/systems avoiding to take losses as good as we can, but this also works as a disadvantage in the long run.

So my conclusion is, that over the long run if I just enter all the time almost mindlessly, into trend direction, no matter how often I lose, and let my winners run, there has to be a positive result. It's just still difficult to determine in which direction the various trends in different time frames are going and hence determining if the trade was a legit loser or more of a direction-perception mistake.
And of course after the tenth loss my brain is telling me: "What the fuck are you doing? Don't you see that you're losing all the time?" and punishes me with feeling like crap.

I'm trying to go on like that at least until Trade #100 and just look what happens. I really don't think that trading is that difficult of a thing to do, we just tend to make it difficult because we can't stand the enormous possibilities of wealth the market is offering and so our brain is blocking on purpose our perception of the "easy opportunities" in the market.

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MrMojoRisin View Post
Thanks for your words man!

I've tried a lot like those tricks you're describing, but I came to another conclusion I'm trying to put into practice.
A trend is more likely to continue than to reverse, but if we look on a chart we tend to only look on the points where it reverses and so we automatically tend to make our trades based on these points, which turns the odds in the long run against the trader.
And we also hate to take losses, so we automatically gravitate (almost unconsciously) towards trying to build our trades/systems avoiding to take losses as good as we can, but this also works as a disadvantage in the long run.

So my conclusion is, that over the long run if I just enter all the time almost mindlessly, into trend direction, no matter how often I lose, and let my winners run, there has to be a positive result. It's just still difficult to determine in which direction the various trends in different time frames are going and hence determining if the trade was a legit loser or more of a direction-perception mistake.
And of course after the tenth loss my brain is telling me: "What the fuck are you doing? Don't you see that you're losing all the time?" and punishes me with feeling like crap.

I'm trying to go on like that at least until Trade #100 and just look what happens. I really don't think that trading is that difficult of a thing to do, we just tend to make it difficult because we can't stand the enormous possibilities of wealth the market is offering and so our brain is blocking on purpose our perception of the "easy opportunities" in the market.

I wish I could say I agree. A trend is only a trend in reverse.

"The trend is your friend till it bends". Sure you just needed to buy pullbacks and cash out at the top. But even if you could... COULD you but at the bottom when it looks like its never coming back? Then COULD you sell at the top holding through all the pullbacks but exiting only at the top one?

Our trades are overlaid onto the market. Hence we trade our trades and our beliefs. The markets gonna do whatever the markets gonna do.

Just my beliefs of course.

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MrMojoRisin
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Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
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Monday May 3rd

Trade #59

Next loss, but legit. Had no problem with this one.

Big pic
2021-05-03 (3)


2021-05-03 (2)


Loss: -4.75P / -19Ticks



Trade #60

Give it to me baby! I'm definitely not backing down! Either it starts to work again, or I'll bleed my account to death. There's no other option






Loss: -3.50P / -14 Ticks

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MrMojoRisin
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Tuesday May 4th

Busy day today!

Trade #61

I thought about that the previous days and I realized that I'm way too long biased in this market, probably just because I lost one single short trade when I started trading the MES and long trades were running pretty good. Even though it's in a strong uptrend on the daily, I feel like it's a mistake to not make short trades at all, especially looking on the time frame I'm trading in.
Big picture trend turned into a downtrend and so I tapped my feet into shorting again here.

Big pic

2021-05-04 (3)


2021-05-04 (2)


Loss: -4.25P / -17Ticks



Trade #62

Moved extremely aggressive and fast after the cash-open today and dumped like a stone. Took only 10mins this trade and was very demanding, but executed it without hesitation like planned.

Big pic


2021-05-04 (17)


2021-05-04 (16)


Moved Stop 3 times

Win: +10.00P / +40 Ticks



Trade #62

Especially proud of this one. I hate making a trade into the same direction right after I got stopped out from a winner, but I know that I should do it, so I hammered it in without thinking twice!


2021-05-04 (15)


2021-05-04 (14)


Moved stop 2 times
Break even



Trade #64

Maybe I should think of making a rule for such a case here. From a logical basis I think it's not very likely for a trend running down with such steam like this one to reverse that quick and jump back up again.
I know that I had the scenario from Thursday April 29th in mind where it dumped and then snapped back straight up again. But this was more of a quick dump and not so much of a "trend with steam behind" I guess.
Nevertheless big picture had a higher low and a higher high and since "No thinking allowed" I traded it.


2021-05-04 (9)


2021-05-04 (8)


Loss: -3.50P / -14 Ticks


Trade #65

Made another higher low, but likely just low odds trying to go long here. Probably more of a bottom picking. Not good.


2021-05-04 (13)


2021-05-04 (12)


Loss: -3.50P / -14 Ticks

Gotta give myself some props for today. Especially in this aggressive moves just hesitating a second with stopping out could lead to very bad and psychologically damaging situations nobody wants to be in. Navigated that day pretty good even though stress-level was very high.

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MrMojoRisin
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Wednesday May 5th morning (before cash-open)

Trade #66

More of an uptrend in the big picture isn't possible. Classic in at the top out at the bottom, reversing and going in my direction again.



2021-05-05 (4)


2021-05-05 (3)


Loss: -3.75P / -15 Ticks


Trade #67

Re-entered. It's amazing how I've been in this trade for 3 hours and not even made back the loss from the previous trade which took 7 min.


2021-05-05 (8)


2021-05-05 (7)


Moved stop 2 times
Win: +3.25P / +13 Ticks


Trade #68

Faking me out all the time. Wider stop would prevent that in these cases but I gotta stick to my rules. I'm feeling like I'm just mindlessly burning money all the time, but I swear in the very instance I stop and look for another methodology, there will come one 30Point trend after the next.
Definitely will reassess my situation on the weekend.


2021-05-05 (12)


2021-05-05 (11)


Loss: -3.25P / -13 Ticks


Evening

Trade #69

Should NOT have taken this trade! Not a valid uptrend on the big picture, but I thought "This looks so perfect and I have to have luck sometime." That's no t okay and gambling! I have to stay focused and not slip into the attitude that I have already made so much losses and one more or less doesn't matter.
Earlier I saw a short I probably should have taken which dumped like a stone. Felt like I missed out on this and probably tried to make that up with this b.s. trade.





Moved stop once
Loss: -2.75P / -11 Ticks

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MrMojoRisin
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Thursday May 6th

Okay something is happening here I gotta take care of!

Trade #70


2021-05-06 (3)


2021-05-06 (2)


Yes, we are in a downtrend and this trade maybe was legit, but it still feels kinda wrong if I look at it today...

Loss: -3.0P / -12Ticks


Trade #71

I tell myself "I gotta take every signal I get", to not miss a winner when it comes around. I start to feel like these "good intentions" are just fomo in disguise.


2021-05-06 (7)


2021-05-06 (6)


I recall some situation a few days ago, where the chart looked similar and as it broke the lowest low, it dumped instantly like a stone. What I'm doing here is being resentful that I missed this move and the money it could have given me, and now I'm trying to force the market to do it again to give me "my" money. I try to trade the past here.

Loss: -3.50P / -14Ticks


Trade #72

What can I say? If someone tries to force shit on me, I also tell them to fuck off.


2021-05-06 (11)


2021-05-06 (10)


I'm even starting to doubt that I drew that big red arrow to remind myself that we're technically in a downtrend, and not to try and tell the market where it should go

Loss: -3.75P / -15Ticks


Trade #73

What the fuck am I doing?
I have the guy in the webinar in my head saying "If you get faked out once, you also have to take the second signal", but that was talking of reversal bars. I'm pretty confused because of what reason I'm doing what.


2021-05-06 (13)


2021-05-06 (12)


Yes it went south, but only after it had faked me out. At the latest here my rationality was gone, but probably it was gone even earlier.

Loss: -3.75P / -15Ticks


Trade #74

As I recap all this shit trades I start getting disgusted.

2021-05-06 (15)


2021-05-06 (14)


At least I could move my stop once
Loss; -1.75P / -7Ticks


Trade #75

This trade is that beginning of the end type of trade. Everybody thinks "It can't happen to me", until it happens, and if I don't start to take care again I'll navigate myself right into the dumpster.
I ALWAYS put in a S/L with every trade far away just in case my internet should die down at the very instance I put my order in. When I'm in the trade I then pull it at its correct place.
I saw this "golden opportunity of a trade", while I tried somehow to keep track of all the shit trades I did before, thought "Fuck this pullback is perfect, I can't miss this trade" and threw in my short order, not even having time to put in my internet-die-down-security-S/L, and had to do this afterwards in a fully stressed out panic-mode.


2021-05-06 (18)


2021-05-06 (17)


Loss: -4.50P / -18Ticks

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MrMojoRisin
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Thoughts

That's how my results in the MES look like since I started to trade my method:

img_0077


and I start to realize that it's not just the market conditions that have changed, my mindset also slowly shifted.
When I started, I had no expectations at all and was very surprised how well it worked. I sized up to two contracts and it still worked. I calculated the money I could make with 3 contracts in a month if it goes on like that and I know that this would be a psychologically important amount for me. This was at the top of the graph.

I got upset that in week 4 there came no huge trend and that I started to lose all the money I made with 1 and 2 contracts with my 3 contract losses. But week 4 is really just a healthy pullback for that spike at the end of week 3.
Now we're in week 5 and desperation starts to set in like "I need a huge trade to go at least even with my 3 contract losses", maybe then I size back down to 2.
My trade frequency also got way up especially this week.
From the very least of 6 trades per week to an average week of 11 trades to this week 17 trades in just 4 days.

I'm also not capable anymore of being in the now of trading.
Trade #70 - #75 were mostly a result of some "exessive dump" I've seen this week which stuck in my mind and made me resentful of not being in it, telling me "You don't make money going long anymore so you gotta short the hell out of the market"

Trade #69 was a 100% produced by missing the runup at the same time in the evening on the day before

Trade#64 & #65 were trying to force that quick runup after the dump from April 29th onto the market and I had such a hard fight, that I wasn't capable of perceiving the uptrend later that day anymore, which potentially could have given me a few points. This resentment was the reason for Trade #69

Yesterday I did so much shit that I was so out of my mind, that there was no way of even having the chance of catching some of the uptrend which again started in the evening.
I'm so full of regret of missing past moves and of fomo, that this is exactly what I'm getting.

Also in the beginning I saw it pretty casual of when being in front of the computer and lately I'm so glued to the screen that I'm hardly able to even drive to the grocery store for buying some food, not even thinking of going for a run where I'm away for 2 hours.

I have to go back to a more relaxed, not fearful, not resentful, not money-demanding, in the present state of mind.

I'll size back down to 2 contracts and limit myself to a max of 3 trades per day. Also am I forbidding myself to eat my lunch in front of the screen.

The market and money is great, but I should not enslave myself!

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MrMojoRisin View Post
Thoughts

That's how my results in the MES look like since I started to trade my method:

img_0077


and I start to realize that it's not just the market conditions that have changed, my mindset also slowly shifted.
When I started, I had no expectations at all and was very surprised how well it worked. I sized up to two contracts and it still worked. I calculated the money I could make with 3 contracts in a month if it goes on like that and I know that this would be a psychologically important amount for me. This was at the top of the graph.

I got upset that in week 4 there came no huge trend and that I started to lose all the money I made with 1 and 2 contracts with my 3 contract losses. But week 4 is really just a healthy pullback for that spike at the end of week 3.
Now we're in week 5 and desperation starts to set in like "I need a huge trade to go at least even with my 3 contract losses", maybe then I size back down to 2.
My trade frequency also got way up especially this week.
From the very least of 6 trades per week to an average week of 11 trades to this week 17 trades in just 4 days.

I'm also not capable anymore of being in the now of trading.
Trade #70 - #75 were mostly a result of some "exessive dump" I've seen this week which stuck in my mind and made me resentful of not being in it, telling me "You don't make money going long anymore so you gotta short the hell out of the market"

Trade #69 was a 100% produced by missing the runup at the same time in the evening on the day before

Trade#64 & #65 were trying to force that quick runup after the dump from April 29th onto the market and I had such a hard fight, that I wasn't capable of perceiving the uptrend later that day anymore, which potentially could have given me a few points. This resentment was the reason for Trade #69

Yesterday I did so much shit that I was so out of my mind, that there was no way of even having the chance of catching some of the uptrend which again started in the evening.
I'm so full of regret of missing past moves and of fomo, that this is exactly what I'm getting.

Also in the beginning I saw it pretty casual of when being in front of the computer and lately I'm so glued to the screen that I'm hardly able to even drive to the grocery store for buying some food, not even thinking of going for a run where I'm away for 2 hours.

I have to go back to a more relaxed, not fearful, not resentful, not money-demanding, in the present state of mind.

I'll size back down to 2 contracts and limit myself to a max of 3 trades per day. Also am I forbidding myself to eat my lunch in front of the screen.

The market and money is great, but I should not enslave myself!

I do have some advice. All psychology. I have to go now but will write later.

I think your journal is going to be your best friend and if you can go back and really reread with fresh eyes how far you've come it might help your spirit a bit.

Ive been reading and recommending this book. Theres NOTHING like it out there.

https://www.amazon.com/Mental-Game-Trading-Confidence-Discipline-ebook/dp/B09253NDBB?tag=tapainc-20

Seems like it's the mental side that got you... and it has ALL of us.

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MrMojoRisin
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Sandpaddict View Post
I do have some advice. All psychology. I have to go now but will write later.

I think your journal is going to be your best friend and if you can go back and really reread with fresh eyes how far you've come it might help your spirit a bit.

Ive been reading and recommending this book. Theres NOTHING like it out there.

https://www.amazon.com/Mental-Game-Trading-Confidence-Discipline-ebook/dp/B09253NDBB?tag=tapainc-20

Seems like it's the mental side that got you... and it has ALL of us.

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I've briefly noticed that book a few days ago and I definitely will look into it, even though when it comes to such systems like he describes it, that almost sound too good to be true, I became very sceptical in the last years. But I'll give it a shot after I've finished my current book.
It's in general amazing how you can read the same book you've read when you started with trading, now and get an entirely different message from it.

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MrMojoRisin
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Posts: 43 since Apr 2021
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Friday May 7th

Trade #76

Slowly I really think that can't be coincidences anymore. Was so sick of yesterday's trades and my addiction of observing the market 12hours a day, that I slept longer today, focused on working through all of the previous days shit and hardly looked at the MES until noon. Even was at the shopping mall and took the long way home. Then I was so tired that I went to sleep and set my alarm for 1/2 hour before the cash-open, and thought the market should do whatever it does, I don't care.
Thought that I make a trade with just 2 contracts if I see an opportunity and if not then not and that's also okay. Saw what I perceived as an opportunity and it worked out.

It wasn't that monster trade the greedy part of me was hoping for, but that's totally fine. Nevertheless I closed the chart immediately after I got stopped out, because seeing that thing going still higher would be too much for my slightly impaired mental state.


2021-05-07 (2)


2021-05-07 (3)


2021-05-07 (4)


Moved stop 5 times
Win: +12.25P / +49 Ticks

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MrMojoRisin View Post
Friday May 7th

Trade #76

Slowly I really think that can't be coincidences anymore. Was so sick of yesterday's trades and my addiction of observing the market 12hours a day, that I slept longer today, focused on working through all of the previous days shit and hardly looked at the MES until noon. Even was at the shopping mall and took the long way home. Then I was so tired that I went to sleep and set my alarm for 1/2 hour before the cash-open, and thought the market should do whatever it does, I don't care.
Thought that I make a trade with just 2 contracts if I see an opportunity and if not then not and that's also okay. Saw what I perceived as an opportunity and it worked out.

It wasn't that monster trade the greedy part of me was hoping for, but that's totally fine. Nevertheless I closed the chart immediately after I got stopped out, because seeing that thing going still higher would be too much for my slightly impaired mental state.


2021-05-07 (2)


2021-05-07 (3)


2021-05-07 (4)


Moved stop 5 times
Win: +12.25P / +49 Ticks

I would like to be honest but please don't misunderstand. I am going through this as well as we all are.

I am no better or worse it's just easier to see from an outside perspective.

You seem to be really attaching ego to your trades. As in, you made a trade and your decision whether or not it was a good trade was whether it won or not.

I think thats a very stressful way to trade. Leading to worse results.

If you knew going into it that you could truly hit your stop on any trade as its always just a distribution of wins and losses then 10 losses in a row could be VERY frustrating but STILL not become personal.

I know thats easier said then done but if every loser adds a little more frustration a little more anger eventually you'll get so frustrated that your almost guaranteed to do something to severely damage your account.

Or you'll cut cut cut for loss loss loss then grab a few ticks here to ease the pain and discomfort thus fueling the fire!

It's a crappy situation.

Now everything aside. I recommend that book as it literally has mental strategies for incorporating right into the fabric of your trading experiences.

Ok so for all practical purposes. Try this as an exercise.

Go through your trades in the last few weeks and just look at how many loosers you could have avoided had you had NO STOP IN PLACE and only wanted to break even on the trade.

***this is ONLY a thought experiment to show yourself that YOU are the reason your loosing. And it's emotional decision making at the core.

Now how many of those trades, as a number or a percentage, had you had the patience and waited until they came back and let you out at least at breakeven?

You might be shocked to find it's NOT your entires. It's about how, where and WHY you EXITED.

Live of course this all presupposes the use of PROPER risk management, (not just stops as thats only ONE piece of the puzzle), position sizing and context. But this is just an experiment.

Also. If you are getting frustrated (as we ALL do) its yourself telling yourself somethings not quite right.

Your body is sending you signals via cortisol, adrenaline, noradrenaline, ect that we feel as stress and then we take those signals to make bad decisions as it would be impossible to do otherwise.

It's like when we first start learning to drive. We don't know what we don't know and are in panic mode as we learn. Almost causing accidents only because we are so stressed and overreacting.

After a few years of driving you know what NOT to pay attention to add have much more focusing ability because you know what to look for thats out of the ordinary and everything else is on auto pilot.

That's where we want to be. Comfortable... but fully aware of the dangers as one slip up and it could ruin the lives of us and others. Same with trading.

(Funny thing about the driving analogy. As you first learn to drive (trade) it would more analogous to say that it would be more like driving a Ferrari with the gas pedal nailed down and no brakes and no seatbelts and you just had to learn to drive like that starting with no experience driving at all. Lol)

Sorry so long but do go and try that exercise. You'll see emotions made you exit alot of those trades before they DID eventually come back.

Good trading to you


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MrMojoRisin
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I would like to be honest but please don't misunderstand. I am going through this as well as we all are.

I am no better or worse it's just easier to see from an outside perspective.

You seem to be really attaching ego to your trades. As in, you made a trade and your decision whether or not it was a good trade was whether it won or not.

I think thats a very stressful way to trade. Leading to worse results.

If you knew going into it that you could truly hit your stop on any trade as its always just a distribution of wins and losses then 10 losses in a row could be VERY frustrating but STILL not become personal.

I know thats easier said then done but if every loser adds a little more frustration a little more anger eventually you'll get so frustrated that your almost guaranteed to do something to severely damage your account.

Or you'll cut cut cut for loss loss loss then grab a few ticks here to ease the pain and discomfort thus fueling the fire!

It's a crappy situation.

Now everything aside. I recommend that book as it literally has mental strategies for incorporating right into the fabric of your trading experiences.

Ok so for all practical purposes. Try this as an exercise.

Go through your trades in the last few weeks and just look at how many loosers you could have avoided had you had NO STOP IN PLACE and only wanted to break even on the trade.

***this is ONLY a thought experiment to show yourself that YOU are the reason your loosing. And it's emotional decision making at the core.

Now how many of those trades, as a number or a percentage, had you had the patience and waited until they came back and let you out at least at breakeven?

You might be shocked to find it's NOT your entires. It's about how, where and WHY you EXITED.

Live of course this all presupposes the use of PROPER risk management, (not just stops as thats only ONE piece of the puzzle), position sizing and context. But this is just an experiment.

Also. If you are getting frustrated (as we ALL do) its yourself telling yourself somethings not quite right.

Your body is sending you signals via cortisol, adrenaline, noradrenaline, ect that we feel as stress and then we take those signals to make bad decisions as it would be impossible to do otherwise.

It's like when we first start learning to drive. We don't know what we don't know and are in panic mode as we learn. Almost causing accidents only because we are so stressed and overreacting.

After a few years of driving you know what NOT to pay attention to add have much more focusing ability because you know what to look for thats out of the ordinary and everything else is on auto pilot.

That's where we want to be. Comfortable... but fully aware of the dangers as one slip up and it could ruin the lives of us and others. Same with trading.

(Funny thing about the driving analogy. As you first learn to drive (trade) it would more analogous to say that it would be more like driving a Ferrari with the gas pedal nailed down and no brakes and no seatbelts and you just had to learn to drive like that starting with no experience driving at all. Lol)

Sorry so long but do go and try that exercise. You'll see emotions made you exit alot of those trades before they DID eventually come back.

Good trading to you


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I've looked into that for the previous 23 losses, basically since my losing streak began. They came all back sooner or later and pretty evenly distributed. About half of them came back within 10 Ticks, some took a bit more, BUT there was one that took 87 Ticks and one that would have been exactly that out of control loss that destroys people with 290 Ticks and took 2 days to come back.
My exits are always determined by the chart, so I have no profitgoal for a trade.
What I'm aiming at is pretty much being on the right side if one of those out of control moves occur and stay in as long as possible.
I'm not sure if I'm getting at where you're pointing at or it doesn't apply for my method?!

Also I couldn't make my stops wider and still trade in the same time-frame. That wouldn't work with my logic how to handle them when in a trade.

Like I see it, the problem I have to work on is interpreting/perceiving the big picture more objective, so that I don't enter into too much crap-trades.
The big picture tells me if I should enter and what direction and the small picture where exactly and how to handle my stop.

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 Sandpaddict 
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I've looked into that for the previous 23 losses, basically since my losing streak began. They came all back sooner or later and pretty evenly distributed. About half of them came back within 10 Ticks, some took a bit more, BUT there was one that took 87 Ticks and one that would have been exactly that out of control loss that destroys people with 290 Ticks and took 2 days to come back.
My exits are always determined by the chart, so I have no profitgoal for a trade.
What I'm aiming at is pretty much being on the right side if one of those out of control moves occur and stay in as long as possible.
I'm not sure if I'm getting at where you're pointing at or it doesn't apply for my method?!

Also I couldn't make my stops wider and still trade in the same time-frame. That wouldn't work with my logic how to handle them when in a trade.

Like I see it, the problem I have to work on is interpreting/perceiving the big picture more objective, so that I don't enter into too much crap-trades.
The big picture tells me if I should enter and what direction and the small picture where exactly and how to handle my stop.

Im sorry I should have been more clear.

It was ONLY a thought experiment to show the difference from where you ACTUALLY exited with all the feelings and thoughts and reasons for exiting AT THAT MOMENT compared to the ENDLESS possibilities that were AVAILABLE until the decision was made to close FINALIZING into stone that trade.

This is ONLY to shift your THINKING from "I entered here, exited there, look what an idiot!"

...To...

OK I can now see that there was infinitely MORE possibilities then what I could see when I closed the trade.

Once you do this a few hundred times what you find happens is when your panicking or ready to exit at a loss BECAUSE THE STRESS IN YOUR BODY IS THE SIGNAL YOUR USING TO EXIT you can remember more easily the infinite possibilities that may lie ahead and maybe manage out of your exit better.

And over time and iteration you get better at both patience and pattern recognition for those times you really want to rationally be out.

The result is better exits AND a better mindset and more likely higher profits.

Again it's ment ONLY as a thought experiment AND has ZERO to do with any trading strategy or improvement to a trading strategy. That's not what it's about.

Hopefully that makes more sense and by the sounds of it, it gave you the numbers I usually get and hear others get.

So you did it correctly.

Those stats tell you so much. Again it's not about focusing on that one time that woulda killed ya because it's not about a trading strategy.

And EVERY system you look at will have those. That's what risk management is for.

I hope that made it more clear.

Nothing to do with strategy. Everything to do with MINDSET.

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MrMojoRisin
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Monday May 10th

Trade #77

Big picture
2021-05-10 (3)


Execution

2021-05-10 (2)


Large P2-P3: 63 Ticks
Medium P2-P3: 28 Ticks
Small P2-P3: 15 Ticks
  • Favorable points: Medium and small trend P2 were the exact same points
  • Unfavorable points: P3 of the large trend can be interpreted as a lower low already, which would mean that the trend wasn't intact anymore
  • To mention: My entry was almost exact halfway between P2 and P3 of the large trend

Loss: -4.00P / -16 Ticks


Focus for this week

Patience! Only take trades that show a CLEAR visible trend on the big picture and leave everything else alone.

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MrMojoRisin
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Tuesday May 11th

Stayed out of the market. Maybe in the earlier hours short opportunities, but I leave them alone for a while.
Later on jumped around with big, fomo producing candles, which when actually traded probably more likely to get chopped around and slip into a non-rational state quickly.

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MrMojoRisin
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Wednesday May 12th

Again no trade today. Not so jumpy anymore and pretty solid downtrend the entire day.

There was a passage in my book today where the protagonist, a profitable discretionary trader, met a math-wiz who develops trading systems, but actually is himself a bad trader. His systems are pretty good, but as soon as he has to take a few losses in a row, he goes back and tweaks around at his system and this is a neverending story him. He enjoys building systems more than trading, because in his world of numbers there's no room for non-perfectionism.
The problem I have, is to be able to differentiate between a technical legit or a series of technical legit losing trades, and trades that are driven by emotion, wanting to make back money and just wanting to be in the market for the sake of hoping for the next big monster-trade.

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MrMojoRisin
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Thursday May 13th

Now in the evening almost a legit uptrend again. Maybe I have luck tomorrow for a trade.
This waiting sucks and I feel like I'm losing touch with the market.
Somehow this all is still not how I want my trading to be. I'm wondering if I have slipped from hammering out too many stupid trades, to trading too less with the intention of trying to avoid losing, again.
Also thinking of searching for the pattern that seems to work in the MES in stocks as well. But if I start getting caught up too much in stocks again, I'll maybe miss some good MES moves.
I can't tell how often I thought that the grass is greener on the other side since I've started and in the end it was never the case. Different markets, different methodologies have different difficulties. This "Final solution" just doesn't exist.
This "unperfection" is just a part of trading and I have to find a spot where I can accept this in the best way possible and then stay there!
I feel like there's some major error in my thinking about what trading actually is. Somehow I think that I'm looking for solution of the problem in the wrong spot.

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MrMojoRisin
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Friday May 14th

Trend has turned upwards, but the "coming from below"-type of chart didn't develop that well. I get more and more dissatisfied with just trading the MES. I have a pretty clear idea what I want the chart to look like, but at times those opportunities are so rare in just that one market, that I have to take mediocre trades. Overall just not what I like my trading to be....

Trade #78


2021-05-14 (3)


2021-05-14 (2)


Not ideal, but I have to take a trade somewhen.

Moved stop once
Win: +1.25P / +5 Ticks


Trade #79

Followup-trade, a little bit of "coming from below"-character.



2021-05-14 (7)


2021-05-14 (6)


Got stopped out by some quick Retail-Sales MoM volatility

Loss: -4.25P / -17 Ticks


Trade #80

Again Followup-trade. My criteria are given, so I take it.


2021-05-14 (11)


2021-05-14 (10)


Loss: -3.75P / -15 Ticks


Trade #81

Technically I broke my only 3 trades per day-rule here, but you gotta know when to stick to your rules and when to break them.
I recognized the price-action behaviour that was very similar to how it was before some of the big runners, so not taking follow-up trades would be stupid and in this case a mistake.


2021-05-14 (15)


2021-05-14 (14)


Moved stop twice
Win: +2.25P / +9 Ticks


Trade #81

Behavior was still legit, and Trade #80 felt like one of those out-shakers and again not taking the followup-trade would be the bigger mistake here.
Emotions were still in check. Just a short 10sec tweak of pain in the head after the second loss, but still at least 80% rational.


2021-05-14 (18)


2021-05-14 (19)


There was a unusual quick dump during the trade, like it was changing its behaviour from "calm and rational" back to "wild and unpredictable" for a while and then back.

Moved stop 4 times
Win: +10.00P / +40 Ticks

After that it still rises further, but it made a lower low, so I took no followup trade. Would have been more of a gamble at this point.


Tried to bring another attitude towards the market this week. Felt way better than the previous 2 weeks, but just sitting on my ass and waiting for 3 days without a trade is not what I want my trading to be.
Question is if I should put my energy into trying to understand the MES better and stick with it, or if I should focus just on my setup and look for it in different markets as well?!

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