Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Finally the first Phasing-In-Account Trade after a long waiting period.
Trade 01PH / 2023
Continuation H&S pattern seem to be a bit of a identification problem.
But I took this under the premise that there is probably a pattern here if I see it as such one, that the entry signal is the lwast important part and from the perspective of expected patterns per market per year it seems appropriate.
_________________________________________________________________________
One thing that starts to bother me more and more are my max-risk money-management stops. They seem to be inapprpriate at times, or at least suboptimal. It appears to me that it is too much of an attempt of forcing my will on the market instead of letting the market lead.
I'm thinking of setting stops on the foregoing day's high or low in every case, and maybe also lowering the minimum r/r from 2 to 1.5 if that really seems to be the better way after this year even if it meant risking more portion of the account per trade.
"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
I’m lately thinking a lot of quitting the trading-business.
The reasons are some, but in cases like this it’s always difficult to figure out if they are based on sound reason because it’s the wiser choice, or on a quitter, giving-up attitude.
Before I got into trading I already was self-employed once with a car-dealership. I failed with that, but I got an idea of costs of infrastructure, inventory, insurance, taxes and how much I myself get paid for the time I’m putting in.
By now I think I understand the market and the “risk-reward-probability-time relationships” in it well enough to know what is possible and what not.
In Austria the normal workweek is 40 hours. I’ve tried to trade working 40 hours which is impossible, 30 hours which is still not possible and 20 hours which works.
I’m thinking that under the assumption that it’s crucial to do every day the same routine without deviation, which itself isn’t that much of time-effort, but it puts a huge constant strain on my mind and body.
I think it would be possible to take a break of one week at some point if I were trading/observing ten+ markets, but with three markets the danger of missing the one trade which would make a difference is too high.
I can think of various ideas of phasing in another markets or trying to modify my method to suit my life better, but no matter from which angle I look at it, it will take for sure some 5 years and probably more to make enough money to being “the other 20 hours” as if I were working for someone else.
Which would mean living another 5 years without vacation, a car, a social life etc.
On top I’ve bought a dividend-stock some time ago from a simple, well-established Austrian company, and pay a monthly amount into an ETF on the S&P500.
If I do my math and just pay 10% of a normal 40h-income into that simple ETF and buy more stock/re-invest the dividend every now and then “to hold-it-forever”, I do much better in the long run than putting my time and capital into my own trading.
I like trading and would love to build a complete Ag-Futures-methodology, but giving away a big chunk of my life for it, is not worth it I think….
I’ve always thought I’m so very smart, but there is some structure in society that I wasn’t really aware of before, that is just not to “outwit” and probably that’s even a good thing.
So the question I’m asking myself is, if the higher reason for this 4 year-endeavor was to teach me the understanding of compound-interest and my own limitations, and I should move on now, or if I’m making a mistake if I quit the active-trading now.
If especially someone of the older members here has some thoughts about that, I would really appreciate it.
"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
I've decided to "close" the Phasing-In Account, so I stopped tracking Cattle, Canola and Sugar. It's just too much.
Plan for now is to follow the initial plan with the three major mini-grains for the remainder of 2023.
If I should close in the deep red like 40% down, I'll stop fairly sure. Not necessarily under the assumption that my pattern-identifiaction and risk-management doesn't work at all, but that there's for any given method basing on daily movements, at least a two year cycle in each market.
I'm not that concerned by currently being down 14.55%, because I still remeber the one trade in September 2022 that brought in 25.20%. I also have the feeling that 2022 was probably one of the better years in the grains, so it appears not unlogical, that this first half-year was not that good.
But all in all my understanding of how much work it really is grows each month, and I have to figure out if it's intelligent in a rational way to continue, or if my "human capital" is better used in another way.
"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
This sheet is the review I'm doing. I've executed exactly like my trading-plan tells me. I'm not trying to read things into the market, but seeing it only as a plain "probability-distribution".
"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
