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Maybe a little bit different journal


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Maybe a little bit different journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP, cqg with denali
Trading: MES, ZN, ZF
 
Posts: 50 since Feb 2021
Thanks: 19 given, 81 received

Heya all. I wanna start writing this small journey of mine, because it might be helpful for me and hopefully for you, but more importantly, because it might be fun to write and to read.

So little bit of my background. Im kinda young (I guess). Im 30. From europe with a nice 9-5 job in IT sector. Im making mobile banking app for iOS. Im working there for almost 7 years. Started during collage.
Well, last year we were hit by pandemic disaster. I stayed working from home. Its nice I like it. I live with 2 flat mates so its not boring and I have a social contact. Not bad at all.
During Christmas there wasnt much of a work and I got bored. I was in a middle of buying my own flat. Nice position in city center. But expensive. So I started looking for some additional money making strategies. My rules were quick money and having fun

I had 3 ideas:
  • Win a lottery
  • Start trading
  • Make a multimillion worth mobile app

And all of you know what I tried. Obviously lottery well … no
I started my journey with new mobile app. I thought maybe I will learn sth new that I can use in my day job and maybe I will make also some money that I can spend on my new flat. I got tired quickly, because I didnt want to do what I was doing in my day job also later in evenings for another few hours.

So I looked for sth completely different. I looked into trading. And well … here I am Bare with me pls here for a sec and I will get to today point in a sec.

So I had literally zero knowledge about trading. I knew there are some stocks and bitcoin. That was it. So I looked into youtube and found out there is sth called forex and after few hours, my YT channel got filled with trading videos and nothing else. So obviously I found these 5 min a day to become millionaire” trading videos. And I was like yeeeeah! thats it!

Fortunately it took me around 15 mins to found out thats really not true
But then there was one video and that video changed everything. Unfortunately I cant remember name of it, but there was this person and he tried this experiment, where he will make 1000$ account and try trade futures. Obviously he lost it in 3 days. He wasnt a trader, he was a youtuber and he was making entertaining stuff. But he explained what futures are and that you have to choose platform and broker and like very basic stuff. Like the core that you have to have before even start to think about trading.

And it got me. It really got me. Because I saw how interesting it can be. So I started learning. Charts here, charts there, analysis, price action … everything.

I found other interesting stuff on YT. I got hooked by live traders. It looked so easy by them. Specially I liked one of them. He was trading (and still is) NQ. He was looking at delta and volume at price. Talking sth like ooooo sellers are in control and stuff like that. Back then I didnt really understand anything of that. But he was making money.
Now I know that his channel was more for entertainment then for education or real trading. But Im glad I found him, because that was the first time I got touch with real trading.

So I downloaded tradovate, because he was using it and they have free trial.
Oh that feeling when I first put my buy order and it went up and I made 100$ in sim trial account.
I just did buy order. Had no real indication for any direction bias. It was just 50/50 trade. I just wanted to try. And I wanted to try again … and again … and again … and then I wanted to know why market is doing what is doing. Can I somehow predict any movement?

And that started everything. I got hooked. Like really. I spent more hours a day learning trading then doing my 9-5 job. I was like a sponge for new informations. Oh damn there ale lots of informations. Eventually I had to learn which infos are worth and which are just scams. And that was an issue. There are indicators, RSIs, MACDs, MAs, volume, delta … there is everything!!! And I got lost. So much! Funny thing is, it got me hooked even more.

I wanted to crack it. Wanted to figure it out.

And here we are After almost 4 months I found out, I cant crack it. I dont even know if I ever will. Or … if its even doable. Maybe not. Maybe what is enough is to figure out just some parts. And stick to them. Well … this sounds very similar to what I was reading and listening everywhere past few months.
“Make your strategy and precise rules and stick to it no matter what!”
Well … I still cant find it. Im still looking, trying everything and looking which one will click for me. There is one thing … order flow and scalping … I know I know … but pls bare with me for another sec here

I certainly know I cant crack anything in just 4 months and specially on my own.
What I learned so far. Price is moving. There are patterns which can indicate you a more probable move. But why are there these patterns? I went deeper. It looks like it has to do sth with supply and demand. And its looks like volume plays quite important role. So price is moving from points where one site is not satisfied and will move market to a point where both sites are satisfied and we have some kind of range movement, until we go away from it and find another range. And it looks like this happens in all timeframes.

So why scalping? Maybe … better is why smaller timeframes? Honestly? I dont really know well … I would be really nervous to hold my position for hours. I know I cant swing trade …. I wont be able to sleep. I certainly am looking at higher timeframes for finding bigger picture of the market. Finding zones of interests. Maybe some support and resistance.
But I just like this idea of looking how many buyers and sellers are there at specific price. What are they doing. How big are bids and offers. Are there spoofing orders? Icebergs? Absorbing? Well you got the idea.

So before going through my setups and analysis process (which is funny, because it looks like there isnt any yet, but we will get to it) I will go through my platform and education.

I spent very long time finding my platform. After month I settled up with Sierra Chart. Its just awesome! It took some time to set everything up, but damn ... its so great. There is everything. Community is awesome and I dont think there isnt sth that is somewhere else.
As I mentioned already, I want to learn orderflow. DOM in sierra is superb. Jigsaw might be little bit better, but sierra is second no doubt. Also, sierra has awesome footprint charts. In the beginning I had various indicators. Now I have DOM, heatmap (like bookmap or action vista) footprint and 1 min with 15 min and daily charts. 15 and daily for bigger picture and other for execution. And basically heatmap, footprint and volume is what Im using.

From educational point of view … My first visible setup was fibonacci …. I know I know but it worked. Sometimes But from my IT background this mathematical theory just got me and I had to try it. I even subscribed to eminimind Lots of nice educational stuff and live trading every tuesday. But I wanted more. I mean I wanted to know why some of fibb levels work and some dont.
Well this is why I got interested in orderflow. My first idea was to confirm fibb levels with orderflow. I got deeper into orderflow and I found it very interesting.
Then I found Axia futures youtube channel. Its pure gold. They have very good free stuff there. Awesome footprint and price ladder courses.
Next I love Trade you plan channel. Sierra chart user in ES
My biggest finding was completely random and unfortunately he has no new videos, but because of him I got idea of DOM trading ES. Very nice channel: Christian Anthony
And obviously John Grady’s nobsdaytrading. I didnt buy his live webinar tho. But what I saw from him was just awesome. That is my biggest inspiration. I saw some live trades but it was from few years ago.

And thats one of my problems. Lots of stuff on internet, which are great and man can learn a lot from it, is old. I mean .... it looks like ES is now faster and treasuries are slower. Or maybe not … well maybe its just me and im just really bad.

Ok then …. we are are almost in the end of this first post Introduction.
Why am I doing this then?
To be completely honest. I started mainly because of journal competition and because Jigsaw. I have Sierra and I like it very much. I would still use it for orderflow and chart, but Jigsaw is just the most awesome DOM platform there is. But! There is more. They have … I assume … one of the best courser there is. I think for me. I would love to have this kind of education.

But I would not do this only because of competition. It just kicked me into starting this. I think this might actually help me. I still dont have any real working setup that I can wait for and then execute. Im still in learning phase and I started just looking at setups that can actually work. When I force myself to write them down I can look at them and maybe I will see sth there. Like this aha effect. Like what the heck I was thinking here … this patter never works. Or ahaaaa look at this. This happens all the time and when this happen after this patter there is quite nice chance that price will go this or this direction.

And … I know that here are many very good traders. And maybe I can make some of you smile and maybe you will have some flashbacks from time when you started. I will try to write my journal in slightly more on fun side.
But maybe the most important thing … I know there are also new traders. Somebody that is just starting and its struggling like me. Maybe this can help I guess I wont find any holy grail and I guess I wont find sth that will show new traders how they should trade and which setups they should take. But I know I can show you my mistakes. And I bet there will be many And mistakes are the most helpful.

And I already made some Im writing this after my very first week trading with real money.
So it happened then I started trading live in April. I spent 3 months in sim. I cant really tell if I was green or now, because I went for every trade I could see. Just to found it if it will go as I thought. I then tried to filter out those which were really bad
I was and still am watching mainly ES and treasuries.
So after 3 months I decided I wanted to try it live. I assumed it will be slightly different than in sim (I could be more wrong … its completely different … but on that later). I then made really really small account. And I mean small. Just 500$. I had this idea that it can be maybe enough for some time trading MES (on ES chart and volume).
So today is Sunday and I spent 4 days of live trading. Little bit of spoiler … I managed to loose 20% already. And I had my biggest lesson ever and Im so glad it happened already after just 3 days trading with the smallest account you can imagine.

In next post I will write what happened. I unfortunately cant remember all my trading decisions, But I will try to attach my trades and charts. What I can and will do is write about my lesson and why I lost 20% in one day.

Im gonna trade everyday. I dont think I will manage to post here everyday, but from tomorrow I will try to mark everything and sum it up later here. I still have a day job so its little bit time consuming.

Hah maybe I will write in 3 days that I lost everything and it will by the shortest trading journal ever. Maybe I will just do sim for next few days and write about that. But still, Im really glad that I even started this. Its very interesting to write about my trading experience. The whole trading is so fascinating. Maybe this journal wont be that much about trading setups, but more about me and what trading means for me and how it has changed my life in past 3 months and how it will change in next months (and I hope in next long long years). So more of a journey than journal.

So thanks for this chance and thanks for this forum. Without this forum I wouldnt even try to trade

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  #2 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP, cqg with denali
Trading: MES, ZN, ZF
 
Posts: 50 since Feb 2021
Thanks: 19 given, 81 received

So here we go. In this post (or posts) I will try to sum up what has happened in last week.
As I said, I started with live account and well ... it was disaster. Or maybe not?

Before I start I want to tell you my rules. Very simple rules. Only 1 lot trading and if I got 25$ plus or minus, Im out for that day. As I told you, I wanted to start really small.


Lesson 1: Real money
If anybody is new here and is just starting I cant courage you more to start with real money. It is sooooo different. I cant tell you how much it is different.
Start as soon as possible. But be aware, that you will loose all of it So start small. But it is completely different game!
I got scared. I cant tell you how much I was scared. And I was playing with dollars. Not hundreds or thousands.
Unfortunately I cant show you my first ever live trade, because it is all messed up when I go back in charts and try to display trades I made. But it went well. I was long and price moved 1 point in my direction. Then it started chopping for a sec and I got out. It was a small chop down one or two ticks. But damn I got scared! I was risking 1 point and my target was I think 2. Of course it went up another 2 points. In sim, I would wait. Nothing was telling me that this will go against me. Even if, I could just scratch it. Well ... this was my first ever trade.
I bet when somebody is in sim for months and is profitable .... going live is sooo sooo different. Just try it. In worst case you can still go back to sim.


Lesson 2: Commissions
Well I completely forgot there are some commissions As I was scared I did really really small quick trades. So I was up 25$. I was really happy. Then I turn on commissions, because you have to set them up and bum, I was up only 16$. Commissions ate 36% of my profit.
Imagine I would do just 1 lot but more, lets say 10. I would be up 250$ and commissions would be 90$. Thats lot!



As you can see, I did 11 really small trades.


Lesson 3: New market
I did really strange thing. I went live on market I didnt know and actually never tried in sim. MNQ. I read here and saw some nice executions with kiss orderflow. Its a orderflow footprint plugin for NT. Well, its easy to reproduce it in Sierra, so I tried and got really similar setup (without buy/sell alerts)
I was like ooooo thats cool! I will try it. Aaaaaand it didnt go as planned.



I ended up loosing 16$ in the end. As you can see ... again many small trades. Almost every trade from MNQ was a lost. Usually I got chopped out. MES was good that day.

So second day I lost what I got first day. So far not great not terrible.
In day 3 everything just went wrong. And I mean really bad!!!

Lesson 4: Gambling


So Yeah ... real bad.
First! Where were my rules? What has happened with my -25$? Well ... I got angry.
First trade that day went so bad I was down almost 20$. Second trade ... down 27$. I should have ended, but I just started and didnt want to call it a day so early. And hah ... which market do you think I was trading? MNQ of course!
I went to MES. And it went almost to green numbers. But then ... then I got another loosing trades and I was down 30$. I told myself I will do last trade hoping I will be at -25$ (you know ... rules )
Well ... I was -40 and instead of calling it a day I started to gamble. I wasnt thinking I was just hoping. All other trades were 50/50%. All went badly.
And the worst thing I did ... I started doing more lots. I even did 3 lots trade. I thought if I want to go back to at least 0 I have to risk a little bit more. I did this trade where I put my stop loss 6 ticks and my target 3 ticks with 3 lots. Like it just have to go in my direction 3 ticks. MES is just noising in 1 point range. It has to succeed. Well ... it didnt. I was short in a start of bigger long move. Ended up -90$ in total.
I turned off my whole computer. I got sooo angry at myself and I got really sad.

I wasnt angry because I lost 90$. I went into live trading witch such a small account because I knew there is high possibility I will loose it all. I was angry, because I completely broke all of my rules! All of them! I was so despaired I just had to gave my looses back.
But I was sad. I was more sad than angry. I was sad, because I found out even after almost 4 months of many hours every day learning I still dont know how market works. I still couldnt crack it. Figure it out. My good trades were just luck. I really got broken.

Maybe its funny. 3th day of live trading and Im broken already? I think I got so much hope. I believed myself so much.
I had to sleep it off. Next day I wasnt sad anymore.
Actually I was glad. This was the best thing that could happen to me. I lost 20% of my live account in one day. But my live account is 500$. I just wanted to try it live. Im still in learning sim phase. I broke all of my rules. In just 3th day. Wasnt this great? Wasnt this the best thing that could happened?
It was! I learned so much!!! I didnt learn how to trade. I learned how not to trade! And now more then ever I want to learn it. I spent learning just 3-4 months. By myself. Ppl are learning how to trade for years! I cant figure it out in such a small amount of time. But I cant stop now. And I wont.


Friday. I went back to sim. I did just one trade live. I was more scared then first day That one live trade was long and I ended up 6 ticks in plus. Could have been 15, but I got scared by small chop and got out.
In sim I was actually plus 70$. I didnt even do any trade in MES. I tried ZN/ZF. I spent past month watching these markets. I kinda like them. They are really slow but in some cases I can tell if they got up or down 2-3 ticks. So I tried and all of those trades went well. I could not do them real. I would be so scared because those trades took 20+ mins. I was out in MES after 5 mins usually.

And I have changed my rules. Or rather I add more rules
I will do max 2 live trades a day. Just to gain courage of trading with real money. Otherwise I will spend all day in sim.

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  #3 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP, cqg with denali
Trading: MES, ZN, ZF
 
Posts: 50 since Feb 2021
Thanks: 19 given, 81 received


So today is Monday 12th of April.

Im really proud of 2 trades I made. Unfortunately they have been in sim. Dunno if I will have guts do any live trade today, but we will see.
Im in Europe, so my timezone is +6 from CT. Those trade were in ZF. I would love to trade ZN, but I got small account so Im trying ZF first.

I made more trades already, but I will sum them later.

First trade:


We got nice momentum upwards. Then we started chopping around 25.50 for half an hour. You can see that just 662 contracts traded at 25.75. Suddenly offers at 25.75 got stacked up and bid at 25.50 pulled off. I got in short. Stop and 26 evens and target 24 evens. It was also VPOC, so I thought that can be a nice target. As soon as we traded few contracts at 25.25 bids got pulled of and I knew Im right. It took just few mins to go down to 24.75. There momentum started to loosen up. I moved my target to 24.50. Got filled and we started chopping around that price. We eventually went down to 24 evens, but I think I did a good job. 30$ in sim pocket

Second trade:


Nice momentum down to 20.50. Little bit of pullback to 21 evens. Back to 20.50. We traded to 20.25. Tick above low of the day. At 20.50 offers got stacked up. Im in short. My idea was a breakout through low of the day. Didnt have any target. Just stop at 20.75. Ther was a high volume node and I knew if we go there, momentum is lost and we wont break lows. We went down 1 tick below low of the day but immediately went back to 20.00. There was also small absorption at 20.00 so I got out. I made 1 tick and I did good. Price went up to 20.75. Then price went down to 20.00 but started to chopping around for almost an hour.
My idea wasnt fulfilled, but I managed to scratch a wrong trade with 1 tick profit.
Funny part after that chopping we broke low into 18.75. But I think holding it would be just a luck and not a good trade.

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  #4 (permalink)
 Anagami 
Market Wizard
Cancun, Mexico
 
Experience: Advanced
Trading: NYSE Stocks
 
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Posts: 871 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 609 given, 1,963 received

Welcome to FIO... and to being hopelessly addicted to price action! I suspect that like most of us, you will not be able to shake that addiction.

I can see you're a smart guy from your posts... but really, there is nothing to 'crack'. The market is merely a shifting kaleidoscope of probabilities. There is no secret 'key', other than the ability to determine what is more or less likely to happen, and the psychological ability to act on that information, come hell or high water.

PS are you Slovak?
PPS Just saw your location. Vitaj!

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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  #5 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP, cqg with denali
Trading: MES, ZN, ZF
 
Posts: 50 since Feb 2021
Thanks: 19 given, 81 received


Anagami View Post
Welcome to FIO... and to being hopelessly addicted to price action! I suspect that like most of us, you will not be able to shake that addiction.

I can see you're a smart guy from your posts... but really, there is nothing to 'crack'. The market is merely a shifting kaleidoscope of probabilities. There is no secret 'key', other than the ability to determine what is more or less likely to happen, and the psychological ability to act on that information, come hell or high water.

PS are you Slovak?
PPS Just saw your location. Vitaj!

Thank you very much
Hah yeah well I guess I am. And I got this feeling more and more that there is nothing to be cracked. Really just find a setup with high probability. Im still looking at orderflow to have some kind of edge. Something that will confirm my bias or maybe that will create a bias that will be confirmed later.

Still learning. Still will be. Still in love and I guess still will be

PS:
Haha dakujem

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  #6 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP, cqg with denali
Trading: MES, ZN, ZF
 
Posts: 50 since Feb 2021
Thanks: 19 given, 81 received

Still Monday 12th of April.

But I got:

Topic of a day
Cumulative delta.

Lets talk about this:


Wot is that? This looked suspicious. I started to watch it and I even did one trade (bad one with fortunate execution) in sim.
So my understanding of cum delta is simple. It shows buyers and sellers. What I have learned is, that sometimes there is divergence between delta and price and it can lead to nice setups. I found a really nice blog. Its called tradingriot. There is an article about indicators that actually work and one of them is cumulative delta.
So divergence can lead to either absorption, where delta is making new highs or lows but price isnt, or to exhaustion, where price is making new highs and lows, but delta isnt.

Was this a case of that? I actually dont know. In that blog he also mentioned trend. It depends on trend. This looked like a huge range and not a trend. But lets see another picture.


Those white horizontal lines are were previous image ended. I went for a trade in a really stupid price. Why? I guess I had this image in my mind, that price started moving up and delta wasnt ... it has to go down, right? Well ... it didnt.
I marked up white circle where I figured out im wrong and if it would be a real account and not sim, I would go out with a lucky small profit. In sim I waited to see what will happen.
Price went up to 4111.75. That would have been correct price for a short trade. And this is why I think why (pls correct me here if my thinking is wrong)
We made a new swing high with price, but delta was still going down. Firstly we traded to 08.50. Price went back to 11.75 so I added second lot (rules!!!! but I was in sim and I just wanted to see what will happen and I was almost sure this will go down) So another new high. Basically the same high as before but with lower delta. And we went down again to 08.50.

Well nice! Delta did actually show us a setup. But ... Shouldnt price went even lower? Delta was still in downtrend ... lets see another picture:
  1. Range of previous image
  2. New high in bigger picture, delta still going down. After this I expected real price drop ... never happened.
  3. This is wrong circle, it should be 20 mins later. That is where I stared first trade
  4. Here I added second lot.

Afterwards we broke range, but in uptrend. Does this mean that delta is useless? Or it is not that reliable in bigger picture? Or context was just different and context is always stronger?
In tradingriot blog he also mentioned, that there are days, where price is in uptrend and delta in downtrend. I believe that eventually it will have some consequences. But maybe in a really big picter and bigger timeframe.

Lets see last picture:

This actually happened 2 hours after the range from first picture. It is that new high made in last picture. As you can see I did the same mistake. I didnt waited until new swing high is made and went for a short trade. Got stopped out because of tight stop.
  1. Went in in a price that was actually high of first range
  2. As you can see I got stopped out. But from this point we made a new swing high in delta but not in price -> Absorption

So again .. now it worked. It usually works for me in lower timeframes. But also just for a small profit. Which is not bad, maybe I can make some high probable setups from it.

Lesson:
If I want to try trade setup with cum delta, wait for new high or low to be made

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  #7 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP, cqg with denali
Trading: MES, ZN, ZF
 
Posts: 50 since Feb 2021
Thanks: 19 given, 81 received

So new day. Tuesday 13th of April.

Overnight session was really slow. After my day job we will have band rehearsal, so not much trading will happen today.
But I got sth from yesterday, that I didnt have time to post it yet.

Its a range breakout. At least I think it is Or at least it is sth that I see quite often. In RTH (not in ETH ... we will get to it later)



  1. We established nice range here
  2. High volume nodes in high of range ... I started watching
  3. High volume node slightly lower then low of the range. Now it stared to be interesting

So what happened after? We test lower, but we bounce back to high volume node. We didnt exceeded high of that node and we bounce and push lower. This happened in 16:35. In next bar, 16:40, we tested that node again, but from that point we just run down.
In heatmap you can see where high volume was made

I didnt take this trade yesterday, because I always take it wrongly. For example, I would take that high of a range beleaving we will push higher and break high of the day. Thats why I waited and tried to observe.

Well that was yesterday. As I said, today overnight was really slow. But I saw sth really similar started to happening.


I even did a trade. Buuuuut lets see what has happened here
  1. Established range
  2. Test higher and back to range
  3. Testing range
  4. We bounce up a little so I take the trade
  5. I got kicked out. We are testing under the range
  6. Testing higher of the range???

Well ... as I said ... it was slow. After this has finished I realised the range I tried to trade was just a begging of much bigger range that took 2 hours to break.
What went wrong and what went good. There was some good thinking and even tho I did poor choice I knew I was wrong.

Point 1 (from picture) took 10 mins.
Point 2 took 4 mins.
Point 3 almost 30 mins.
Point 4 -> pop up and I was in. I was expecting another small pop. Or at least buyers trying to push higher. There was nothing. Not even absorption. I knew I was wrong. I tried to scratch the trade, but didnt get filled. My hard stop eventually stopped me.
Im glad ... I knew I was wrong and didnt try to wait and hope. I tried to escape. It didnt go as planned but at least I tried and that is much better that just wait, hope and gamble!
I think that is a small improvement over last week.

Funny thing is we eventually break this range and even to my direction But if I would hold it, that would have been just pure luck and nothing else.

Lesson:
Observe ranges! If you want to trade ... do it in sim. Observe ranges and look for high volumes and test of them. Wait and be patient.
Dont be ashamed that you are wrong. If you think you are wrong, better to leave earlier and maybe jump back if you were right

(im writing this to myself for future read ... so if I write 'you' that is like my past self talking to current self reading it in future)

Today I did few ZF trades. All bad, but I want to sum them up. Hopefully today, because of that rehearsal and not much time to write.
So far this journal helped me enormously! And I just started. Hopefully you have fun reading it

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 Sandpaddict 
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Malykubo... Great Post!

I've read your journal and I'm shocked your only 4 months into this! I have a feeling if you keep up the dedication you show so far you'll eventually do just fine.

This ONE post, if you read what you said to yourself, should take you %90 there.

See the thing is all the charts, indicators, divergences ect do is give us is perspective. You can only trade YOU.

YOU put the trade on... YOU take the trade off. YOU feel great when it works... YOU feel bad when it doesn't.

The problem is letting the *feeling* make the decisions. And this is going to ALWAYS be the struggle... NOT THE MARKETS!

You are ALWAYS going to be the problem AND the solution.

One suggestion I would make is look at your REAL TRADES (SIM doesn't count) and go OK your entry was your entry. Look forward and see how many times you panicked out before it would eventually go back to at least break even. And where you could have made a profit even. What you'll see is (as far as I'm concerned anyway) you don't have control till you enter then its up to you to manage the trade well. Panicing out is not trading well.

Did you know where you were going to get out when you got in? Stop and target? Otherwise you'll most likely get out at a panic point. Usually the worst place to get out.

Also do the numbers support a profitable strategy after costs? Cause its not about this trade or the next. Its about the whole.

Keep it up though. Keep writing to yourself. Follow it the best you can and remember its NOT THE MARKETS ITS JUST YOU!

Thank you.

Malykubo View Post
So here we go. In this post (or posts) I will try to sum up what has happened in last week.
As I said, I started with live account and well ... it was disaster. Or maybe not?

Before I start I want to tell you my rules. Very simple rules. Only 1 lot trading and if I got 25$ plus or minus, Im out for that day. As I told you, I wanted to start really small.


Lesson 1: Real money
If anybody is new here and is just starting I cant courage you more to start with real money. It is sooooo different. I cant tell you how much it is different.
Start as soon as possible. But be aware, that you will loose all of it So start small. But it is completely different game!
I got scared. I cant tell you how much I was scared. And I was playing with dollars. Not hundreds or thousands.
Unfortunately I cant show you my first ever live trade, because it is all messed up when I go back in charts and try to display trades I made. But it went well. I was long and price moved 1 point in my direction. Then it started chopping for a sec and I got out. It was a small chop down one or two ticks. But damn I got scared! I was risking 1 point and my target was I think 2. Of course it went up another 2 points. In sim, I would wait. Nothing was telling me that this will go against me. Even if, I could just scratch it. Well ... this was my first ever trade.
I bet when somebody is in sim for months and is profitable .... going live is sooo sooo different. Just try it. In worst case you can still go back to sim.


Lesson 2: Commissions
Well I completely forgot there are some commissions As I was scared I did really really small quick trades. So I was up 25$. I was really happy. Then I turn on commissions, because you have to set them up and bum, I was up only 16$. Commissions ate 36% of my profit.
Imagine I would do just 1 lot but more, lets say 10. I would be up 250$ and commissions would be 90$. Thats lot!



As you can see, I did 11 really small trades.


Lesson 3: New market
I did really strange thing. I went live on market I didnt know and actually never tried in sim. MNQ. I read here and saw some nice executions with kiss orderflow. Its a orderflow footprint plugin for NT. Well, its easy to reproduce it in Sierra, so I tried and got really similar setup (without buy/sell alerts)
I was like ooooo thats cool! I will try it. Aaaaaand it didnt go as planned.



I ended up loosing 16$ in the end. As you can see ... again many small trades. Almost every trade from MNQ was a lost. Usually I got chopped out. MES was good that day.

So second day I lost what I got first day. So far not great not terrible.
In day 3 everything just went wrong. And I mean really bad!!!

Lesson 4: Gambling


So Yeah ... real bad.
First! Where were my rules? What has happened with my -25$? Well ... I got angry.
First trade that day went so bad I was down almost 20$. Second trade ... down 27$. I should have ended, but I just started and didnt want to call it a day so early. And hah ... which market do you think I was trading? MNQ of course!
I went to MES. And it went almost to green numbers. But then ... then I got another loosing trades and I was down 30$. I told myself I will do last trade hoping I will be at -25$ (you know ... rules )
Well ... I was -40 and instead of calling it a day I started to gamble. I wasnt thinking I was just hoping. All other trades were 50/50%. All went badly.
And the worst thing I did ... I started doing more lots. I even did 3 lots trade. I thought if I want to go back to at least 0 I have to risk a little bit more. I did this trade where I put my stop loss 6 ticks and my target 3 ticks with 3 lots. Like it just have to go in my direction 3 ticks. MES is just noising in 1 point range. It has to succeed. Well ... it didnt. I was short in a start of bigger long move. Ended up -90$ in total.
I turned off my whole computer. I got sooo angry at myself and I got really sad.

I wasnt angry because I lost 90$. I went into live trading witch such a small account because I knew there is high possibility I will loose it all. I was angry, because I completely broke all of my rules! All of them! I was so despaired I just had to gave my looses back.
But I was sad. I was more sad than angry. I was sad, because I found out even after almost 4 months of many hours every day learning I still dont know how market works. I still couldnt crack it. Figure it out. My good trades were just luck. I really got broken.

Maybe its funny. 3th day of live trading and Im broken already? I think I got so much hope. I believed myself so much.
I had to sleep it off. Next day I wasnt sad anymore.
Actually I was glad. This was the best thing that could happen to me. I lost 20% of my live account in one day. But my live account is 500$. I just wanted to try it live. Im still in learning sim phase. I broke all of my rules. In just 3th day. Wasnt this great? Wasnt this the best thing that could happened?
It was! I learned so much!!! I didnt learn how to trade. I learned how not to trade! And now more then ever I want to learn it. I spent learning just 3-4 months. By myself. Ppl are learning how to trade for years! I cant figure it out in such a small amount of time. But I cant stop now. And I wont.


Friday. I went back to sim. I did just one trade live. I was more scared then first day That one live trade was long and I ended up 6 ticks in plus. Could have been 15, but I got scared by small chop and got out.
In sim I was actually plus 70$. I didnt even do any trade in MES. I tried ZN/ZF. I spent past month watching these markets. I kinda like them. They are really slow but in some cases I can tell if they got up or down 2-3 ticks. So I tried and all of those trades went well. I could not do them real. I would be so scared because those trades took 20+ mins. I was out in MES after 5 mins usually.

And I have changed my rules. Or rather I add more rules
I will do max 2 live trades a day. Just to gain courage of trading with real money. Otherwise I will spend all day in sim.

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  #9 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
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Sandpaddict View Post
Malykubo... Great Post!

I've read your journal and I'm shocked your only 4 months into this! I have a feeling if you keep up the dedication you show so far you'll eventually do just fine.

This ONE post, if you read what you said to yourself, should take you %90 there.

See the thing is all the charts, indicators, divergences ect do is give us is perspective. You can only trade YOU.

YOU put the trade on... YOU take the trade off. YOU feel great when it works... YOU feel bad when it doesn't.

The problem is letting the *feeling* make the decisions. And this is going to ALWAYS be the struggle... NOT THE MARKETS!

You are ALWAYS going to be the problem AND the solution.

One suggestion I would make is look at your REAL TRADES (SIM doesn't count) and go OK your entry was your entry. Look forward and see how many times you panicked out before it would eventually go back to at least break even. And where you could have made a profit even. What you'll see is (as far as I'm concerned anyway) you don't have control till you enter then its up to you to manage the trade well. Panicing out is not trading well.

Did you know where you were going to get out when you got in? Stop and target? Otherwise you'll most likely get out at a panic point. Usually the worst place to get out.

Also do the numbers support a profitable strategy after costs? Cause its not about this trade or the next. Its about the whole.

Keep it up though. Keep writing to yourself. Follow it the best you can and remember its NOT THE MARKETS ITS JUST YOU!

Thank you.


Sent using the futures.io mobile app


Oh Im really grateful for your reply. Really thank you very much.
Im still really struggling, but you gave me a push to still try

You got nice point about feelings. I did just few live trades and panicking was big deal I panicked in every trade. Yesterday and today I didnt find strength to make any live trade. I was in only in ETH and start of RTH and in ETH it was really slow. Except one point and I will try to sum up in next post

Few days live trading actually opened my eyes. I will try to live trade more even tho Im still afraid. But I have to, because its really different. But now Im not doing stupid things in sim just to "try". Im more focusing on observation. Then writing it down and doing screenshots and trying to explain what was I thinking and what actually happened and what I thought happened is really helping me a lot.

Now Im finally getting why everybody is talking about finding your own setups. What works for you. And now more then ever I see that most important thing is experience. I guess I just have to keep trying

Thank you

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 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
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So I got one observation here again

As I mentioned range trades, what was happening today with ES?

I ended up my day job. I was watching ES before going to rehearsal. This was happening:



We were in a range again! yay It is happening so often now. I would love to trade those. I really want to learn them.
So my thinking. I waited patiently, but that high volume node slightly outside of range (it actually is not out ... but well Im still learning) got me. That threw me off. I would trade it. I thought we will break higher.

Here how it went. We established this small volume node. We traded lover and back to test node. I really thought we would go higher. But not
Ill show you heat map and you can see it better there:



Circle 1 is HVN that got tested and then we bounce back to range.

But look at this! I didnt notice that in real time, just after I made screenshot.
In point 2 we had delta divergence! Nice 2 point scalp/trade opportunity.

But these are tricky from my very short experience
This is what I would do:

In this point we are at the same price as previous swing high. Good! thats first rule for delta divergence. Now we can either drop down (because of delta) or we can go higher most probably to high of previous swing of that swing (you know what I mean that HVN)
So how would I trade it? There was this small resistant zone (number 3). If we would go below I would trade it and put my stop above that swing high Im trading. Or I could trade it somewhere there in that small range and would put stop above previous higher swing high (HVN).
Because in this cases we can go higher with delayed delta. So we think we have divergence, but its just delayed and we would move to new highs and delta will come to us later, but will come and there will be no divergence.

I have to mark this down somehow:

Lesson:
Wait for confirmation or put a tight stop where you know you are wrong for that small trade. It doesnt mean you cant have another opportunity few sec later (like divergence with other swing high/low that established earlier)
For ranges ... JUST WAIT FOR THAT DAMN CONFORMATION! Its better to not trade then loose .... OBSERVE!

EDIT:
I forgot to post how this range actually finished
Im back from rehearsal and well ...


We were ranging for another 2.5 hours.
  1. Range I posted earlier
  2. Break of a range
  3. ??? I would definitely got stoped out here somehow

Lets have a look on that break

  1. Biulding HVN before break and at the edge of range
  2. HVN above range
  3. We bounced back to range but then we tested HVN with another HVN ... I guess, this was that confirmation

I hope we will have more ranges next days so I can observe and compare my findings. Its much easier to have a look after its done. But maybe with many looks I would see it also live and would have some high probable setup

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 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
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Im really proud of myself right now.
I would be even more proud if I would have done this trade live and not on sim. But even on sim I was panicking and I knew where I would panicked out in real trade. So good that I tried this in sim so I could see what is happening and observe.

I could even have better entry, or if I wouldnt have my rules, I could have add second lot.

So lets start with this picture:


  1. We got a range again!!! It took 1.5 hours
  2. A breakout? Well ... lets see and OBSERVE and wait for confirmation

So I patiently waited. Oh its a long game in ETH.

Then this happened:

  1. HVN from first picture
  2. We tested HVN ... my rule and confirm of breakout trade. I got in!
  3. I put my stop at low of range. My thinking was if we break this point back into range, no breakout. My target was HVN established earlier ... but like really earlier
  4. We went down and we bounced. In this point I would panicked out in real trade. But I was waiting. If we gonna break we could get 2-3 points.

And this is how it ended:


As you can see it bounced back to low of the range, but it didnt break it back and it quickly went back to HVN where I started my trade. I think This would have been better entry. I could entry at that test of range with really tight stop or after getting back to HVN where I initially started. Or I could add second lot.
  1. I saw huge amount of orders in book. I put my target above. Big order is tricky so just for case.
  2. It actually went to my original target, but I might have not got filled there anyway
  3. I did good with my target, because we bounced back to HVN and from there we even went back to range

Was this a range break? Everything is kinda funky at ETH but this was happening quite often in not really directional days, specially at ETH.

Funny thing is, that this happened again just few hours later. I got work to do so I wasnt trading, but while Im writing this I noticed on my charts.
Ill do screenshot right now and try to sum up what might had happened



I might be wrong here, because I wasnt infront of charts while this was happening, but:
  1. Range
  2. Getting into a break with HVN outside of range. We were testing low of that range as well
  3. In this bar we had HVN slighty lower and we tested previous HVNs. This could have been my confirm if I would have been trading

What I would love to learn is to fade ranges ... Because in ETH it seems like we are ranging all the time. I will try to find some edge how to find out how to fade range. Because if I can find some setup that with small risk I can get like 4 ticks, 4times in a range ... well ... I would win life!

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 Anagami 
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Malykubo View Post
Im really proud of myself right now.
I would be even more proud if I would have done this trade live and not on sim. But even on sim I was panicking and I knew where I would panicked out in real trade. So good that I tried this in sim so I could see what is happening and observe.

I could even have better entry, or if I wouldnt have my rules, I could have add second lot.

So lets start with this picture:


  1. We got a range again!!! It took 1.5 hours
  2. A breakout? Well ... lets see and OBSERVE and wait for confirmation

So I patiently waited. Oh its a long game in ETH.

Then this happened:

  1. HVN from first picture
  2. We tested HVN ... my rule and confirm of breakout trade. I got in!
  3. I put my stop at low of range. My thinking was if we break this point back into range, no breakout. My target was HVN established earlier ... but like really earlier
  4. We went down and we bounced. In this point I would panicked out in real trade. But I was waiting. If we gonna break we could get 2-3 points.

And this is how it ended:


As you can see it bounced back to low of the range, but it didnt break it back and it quickly went back to HVN where I started my trade. I think This would have been better entry. I could entry at that test of range with really tight stop or after getting back to HVN where I initially started. Or I could add second lot.
  1. I saw huge amount of orders in book. I put my target above. Big order is tricky so just for case.
  2. It actually went to my original target, but I might have not got filled there anyway
  3. I did good with my target, because we bounced back to HVN and from there we even went back to range

Was this a range break? Everything is kinda funky at ETH but this was happening quite often in not really directional days, specially at ETH.

Funny thing is, that this happened again just few hours later. I got work to do so I wasnt trading, but while Im writing this I noticed on my charts.
Ill do screenshot right now and try to sum up what might had happened



I might be wrong here, because I wasnt infront of charts while this was happening, but:
  1. Range
  2. Getting into a break with HVN outside of range. We were testing low of that range as well
  3. In this bar we had HVN slighty lower and we tested previous HVNs. This could have been my confirm if I would have been trading

What I would love to learn is to fade ranges ... Because in ETH it seems like we are ranging all the time. I will try to find some edge how to find out how to fade range. Because if I can find some setup that with small risk I can get like 4 ticks, 4times in a range ... well ... I would win life!

I'd encourage you to keep your journal going, Kubo, even if you don't get lot of response from others. This is part of your technical development as a trader... a necessary journey for anyone who wants to make it as a trader, coming to terms with and understanding the quirks of price action and market behavior.
When you will look back later over journal, you will see how far you've come.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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 Malykubo 
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So ... today I had this feeling that I want to try live trades. I gain courage after another read of range in ETH.

So this is what happened:


Well it didnt went well. But:
  1. Range
  2. We had this bar where we could go higher then intoo middle of range and we builded HVN slighty below range. I thought thats my point and I will wait for reset of that point. Retest came so I got in. My target was swing low at around 4137 and my stop in middle of a range, Because that would be point of no breakout
  3. Well as you can see I got stopped out. I didnt move my stop. If I would I would be profitable ... but I cant do that so good job me!!! So what happened here? Number 2 wasnt breakout yet. But it was a beggining. Real HVN below range came in this bar. We went lower and then back to test it. We tested low of the range and that should have been my entry. But damn I was close! Im actually glad, because I read that correctly. I had my bias I had my rules I even waited. I did all good. Excpet breakout came little bit later. But I was close and Im glad I tried it live.

I wasnt mad at all! I should have waited more. But that is why im writing this so
WAIT A LITTLE BIT LONGER FOR REALLY OBVIOUS CONFIRMATION

I have my new rules. I was down 1 point. -5.43$ with commissions. If I wanted I can still do one live trade. I didnt have this feeling I have to gain my lost back, but I still had this courage to try one more.

So the second one:

  1. I missed this breakout of a range that developed. I was maybe a little bit too afraid to try it again and when it started happening I didnt want to catch it, because that is not the greatest idea.
  2. Then we came to this spot (white line) I was watching really closely. It looked like interesting area of support. We tried to broke it, but I saw some absorption on both sides. Buyers started to winning and I already had long bias, because we were just going long for some time. So my idea here was that we either have a long run upwards like we already had, or at least we would have a bounce for scalp. And hah! It went well


This is heatmap for that trade.
  1. Missed break
  2. Range I was looking. I could have gotten in earlier. If I wanted to be more aggresive I could have goot in in that range with tight stop. I waited until we broke swing high. Or at least I waited like 2-3 ticks above that range. I got in and my stop was low of that range and my target was 1:1 RR. I actually pulled away my target but I saw some weird behaviour in book so I put it back and I actually did good. So small bounce scalp.

So today's live trading? Im at break even! Which is actually good! So I have my new rules and Im done live for today. I anyway have to go away so I cant trade and when I come back home I will jump to sim. Im still trying trade ZF and already got some screenshots prepared, but didnt have time to post it here. ZF is completely different. Its really slow ... like really. And then suddenly it moves really fast for 3 ticks. I would love to take those. Im trying. Easy part in ZF is, that you know really quickly that you are wrong. And Im usually wrong But at least I know quickly. So I guess that is one point for a skill set

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 Malykubo 
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Anagami View Post
I'd encourage you to keep your journal going, Kubo, even if you don't get lot of response from others. This is part of your technical development as a trader... a necessary journey for anyone who wants to make it as a trader, coming to terms with and understanding the quirks of price action and market behavior.
When you will look back later over journal, you will see how far you've come.

Thank you really much. I really appreciate it and it means a lot to me. When you tell me to keep going I get this feeling of strength and dont want to stop.

I started writing this because I thought it might be fun. Really. For me and hopefully for others Then of course this whole competition sounded awesome I was struggling to find good education online. I thought jigsaw's one might really help me.

But well what a surprise. This journal already helped me enormously!!! I could not have even imagined. So yes, I will try to keep this up for as long as I can. This is actually my journal about "How I tried trading"

Hopefully in few years when I will be a profitable trader I will read this one and will say: "well that was so much fun starting"

So thanks Mike for this opportunity.
And thank you and others for nice replies and just for reading this

PS:
Dakujem naozaj

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 Malykubo 
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Oh and as I mentioned this competition, I read @sstheo journal and its really good! Specially the scalp part. So thank you for that

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 Anagami 
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Malykubo View Post
Thank you really much. I really appreciate it and it means a lot to me. When you tell me to keep going I get this feeling of strength and dont want to stop.

I started writing this because I thought it might be fun. Really. For me and hopefully for others Then of course this whole competition sounded awesome I was struggling to find good education online. I thought jigsaw's one might really help me.

But well what a surprise. This journal already helped me enormously!!! I could not have even imagined. So yes, I will try to keep this up for as long as I can. This is actually my journal about "How I tried trading"

Hopefully in few years when I will be a profitable trader I will read this one and will say: "well that was so much fun starting"

So thanks Mike for this opportunity.
And thank you and others for nice replies and just for reading this

PS:
Dakujem naozaj

The attitude of 'serious' fun is a good one to have, regardless of any temporary, short-term outcomes.

Though for most of us success can take years, it does not have to be that way. It depends on whether your learning is structured (journal and feedback from others can help tremendously) and whether you are looking in the right place or stubbornly try to squeeze water out of stone with approaches that don't work very well.

PS Nemas za co.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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 Malykubo 
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Anagami View Post
The attitude of 'serious' fun is a good one to have, regardless of any temporary, short-term outcomes.

Though for most of us success can take years, it does not have to be that way. It depends on whether your learning is structured (journal and feedback from others can help tremendously) and whether you are looking in the right place or stubbornly try to squeeze water out of stone with approaches that don't work very well.

PS Nemas za co.

Well at least if I want to learn sth, having fun with it is nice but Im taking this seriously. Funny thing is, that I very often panic also in sim. That means I really take this seriously. But as you said. Having journal and feedback is really awesome!

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 Malykubo 
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So another day. Today I have a lots to talk about

I guess I should rename this thread to “Look how I trade range breakouts”
I love range breakouts!!! Well maybe thats the only setup that I KINDA see
No Im kidding I think I was fortune enough, becouse there were lots of ranges past days and I kinda was just learning about breakouts So that really helped me seeing them live and also trading them.

  1. Range
  2. I gained long bias seeing we cant get lower then this line
  3. Here it comes! HVN above range. I had my setup
  4. Test here -> confirmation

Lets have a look on the same situation but in heatmap
  1. Range
  2. HVN above range
  3. Test of range (aggressive entry)
  4. Test of HVN (better confirmation)

But then I saw this:

This happened 1.5 hours later. And I was thinking … well maybe this was that breakout. Because ETH is really slow soooo
  1. Original HVN
  2. New HVN
  3. Test of range

I honestly dont know. When it was happening I got surprised, so I put one lot there. Sim obviously Also had to go away from pc so I wanted to see how it did when I come back and I didnt have to find and remember specific prices.

But we are not finished with breakouts I got another one here happened during RTH
  1. HVN
  2. Test of range. And I got in aggressively.
  3. High of day so I was afraid we would stop there, thats why that aggressive entry with target at HVN
  4. Test of HVN from high of the day and then book into the moon

Same situation from heatmap


And got last one for a breakout:

But this one was different.
I didnt trade it
  1. Range
  2. HVN
  3. Test of range … but I didnt like it and Ill show you why

  1. Previous range with breakout
  2. HVN
  3. Test of range
  4. Test of HVN
  5. New range … looked little bit funky
  6. Kinda HVN
  7. Well … it was soooo slow I was like … hmmm I dont like this. And it just slowly sliced through that range

I did good Im proud again even tho I did just sim and when I wanted to do live trade I forgot Im on sim and when I switched I didnt want to catch it anymore

But I have to ask this question. Were this proper range breakouts? Maybe I just see them everywhere because its the only thing I can see If yes … then I also want to learn fade ranges. Scalp them for point or two.

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  #19 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
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Well ... ranges in ES are getting little but boring what do you think?

So I got few treasury trades in my sleeves.
They are really interesting for me. I would love to learn them. So Im trying. In sim for now. I tried like 2 live trades and Im at break even or in a small loss because of commissions.

But I wanted to post few things here



Well ... what is this? Was this some king of news? ES went up as well. This happened few days back
  1. I went short
  2. I cant really remember why I noted these points. Im sorry
  3. Nothing really showed me market is against me. I was 1 tick in red, but still not looking bad.
  4. Well ... we were in range for hours and then in few second 15 ticks move?


But got few from yesterday
  1. HVA. I wanted to Fade it long
  2. This was interesting price. We traded just few contracts there. Long bias again
  3. Huge limit orders at 27.75. We traded like 5 lots and half of them got pulled. We traded back to 27.50 and they didnt push back, so I went in. Stop at 27.00 and target 28.00

We went higher than my target. Im still trying to learn treasuries so as soon as it backticks I was out

Another sim trades:
  1. HVA developed in some time
  2. Another HVA we were trading in. I tried few trades here
  3. Wrong long and short
  4. Wrong short. But I was able to scratch it here
  5. Nice long trade. We tried to trade into huge bid at 31.00. Bigs didnt move away. Long bias. Again I got out with few backticks. But nice trade.

This happened on sim and I really wanted to try this live. Just to see how I will behave with live money. I thought I was pretty good at seeing when Im wrong so in worst case I will loose 2-3 ticks, which is ok for my rules -25$ per day.

So I tried:

So as you can see ... we were long ... hard. So I thought we will break this high one more time. Well we didnt there.
We traded into 03.25. Huge offer was sitting there. As soon as we traded there that offer pulled. I saw huge offer one tick above and thought it will do the same. So I went long
  1. Huge bid there. Also in 10 year treasuries. We traded there and those bids pulled away. I started to worry, so I had my stop prepared
  2. There was huuuuuge absorption here. I should immediately get out. But was thinking that if we trading into this really hard, maybe we would just pushed through it and it will be hude run. There was 17k lot trade into 19.50 in 10 years old. Well ... I should got out.
  3. Huge bid there. We traded there and I was watching. If those bids will pull out Im out. And they did so I immediately got out.

I did good here. I read it wrong but still had my bias and was trying to hold this trade as much as possible. Im still new to treasuries and had my bias and wanted to see what will happen. As soon as it looked really bad I was able to got out.

Well ... didnt go as planned. But I tried and Im glad I did it live. I was down 2 ticks and I didnt do any live trades that day anymore.

Lesson:
Well ... I really want to give myself some lesson here. But im not sure yet. So at least this:
Look for absorption and pulling offers. Try to develop a strategy out of it. Try small with 2 tick targets

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  #20 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
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So I will end this week with .... wait for it ... RANGE TRADE! ... actually not

No range trade today. I tried sth different.
I could really trade during RTH because of band rehearsal and I can not now either. But I made few sim trades today. Wanted to do at least one trade, but this was new and I wanted to try it first on sim.

So lets see


ETH kinda slow and we went up back to a HVA between 4164 and 4167.
  1. Ther was this kinda support zone here. We bounced and I saw some nice momentum in book. I went long here. Was like well ... this might get into range so lets try it
  2. We traded up my direction. Under my price bigger bid appear
  3. There was also this bigger offer. Was waiting what will happen and holded my trade. If we bounce, im out

This is how it went:
  1. Support
  2. Entry point
  3. We traded that larger offer with ease.
  4. We gained really nice momentum, so I pulled my stop higher and wanted to see how we will trade this actually pretty huge offer that was sitting there fro an hour
  5. We break through and even break high of the day, but we somehow lost momentum so I was out. Nice 11 ticks

For me, this was really nice trade and Im so glad I hold it. Well it was sim, but I was still panicking
I know it was just 11 ticks. But if I can always read market like I read it here ... maybe I will learn how to trade
Entry was kinda funky, because I just had bias of range fade and saw this maybe a support there Maybe a really stupid idea of going in. But ... well I did and I tried to managed it. I guess that is a skill too. Maybe even more important ... note to myself here: write a lesson from this

And I made a second trade here. Again, in sim :/


So what happened here. I think I saw a small iceberg or at least some kind of absorption.
Ill show you and if somebody can tell me if it was a real absorption or small iceberg I would be really glad
  1. So we went up in first bar. Then we traded down and in book I saw really hard hitting sellers into bid, but price didnt move at all. We even bounce for few ticks. I looked at footprint and saw this imbalance. I went long
  2. We traded below and I panicked. Yep .. even in sim!
  3. But we bounce back to iceberg zone. We bounced where I panicked. Like on tick! And there was another absorption by buyers. I tried long again
  4. We bounced hard. I saw this price level here where there was some absoprbing few hours ago and that was my target. We bounce from that level and I got filled

This is the same trade but in heat
  1. Absorption zone
  2. Puking out and bounce back
  3. There was also nice momentumn from buyers. I went long
  4. Zone of previous absorption

So thats it. And Thats it for this week as well

First lets write a lesson from this day
Lesson:
Managing trades is as important as trade itself! Managing good trades for nice profit and bad trades for small loss is really important!
Try to look more at book! When you see some funky order flow, observe! Try to learn and distinguish between actioning and absorption and icebergs. When they happen, observe what will happen after. AND DONT FORGET ABOUT CONTEXT

Ok so Im done for this week.
First 2 weeks of journal and oh damn! Its awesome! Best thing I could done for my education!
Im really glad for anybody that is reading this and for any kind of feedback. Well, likes are nice as well This actually started as part of competition.
But really. What everybody is saying. Making some kind of journal is one of the best thing you can do. And I really want to learn this!
So thank you all

I will have a break tomorrow. Will try to not look at any videos and try to not look at my previous sessions. But on sunday I will try to read this whole journal again and prepare for next week. Maybe I will sum everything up in some kind of lesson

Have a nice friday

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  #21 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
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Soooo lets do a recap. Will try to post all lessons I have written here so far (except the long post that was a big one lesson)

Lesson:
If I want to try trade setup with cum delta, wait for new high or low to be made

Lesson:
Observe ranges! If you want to trade ... do it in sim. Observe ranges and look for high volumes and test of them. Wait and be patient.
Dont be ashamed that you are wrong. If you think you are wrong, better to leave earlier and maybe jump back if you were right

Lesson:
Wait for confirmation or put a tight stop where you know you are wrong for that small trade. It doesnt mean you cant have another opportunity few sec later (like divergence with other swing high/low that established earlier)
For ranges ... JUST WAIT FOR THAT DAMN CONFORMATION! Its better to not trade then loose .... OBSERVE!

Lesson:
Well ... I really want to give myself some lesson here. But im not sure yet. So at least this:
Look for absorption and pulling offers. Try to develop a strategy out of it. Try small with 2 tick targets

Lesson:
Managing trades is as important as trade itself! Managing good trades for nice profit and bad trades for small loss is really important!
Try to look more at book! When you see some funky order flow, observe! Try to learn and distinguish between actioning and absorption and icebergs. When they happen, observe what will happen after. AND DONT FORGET ABOUT CONTEXT

So looking at this it looks like I had problem with confirmations and I was not patient enough.
But it also looks like I got one setup that I can look for and try to learn it. Range breakout. Which is great! Im really glad

Trades I tried:
Range breakout
Delta divergence
Iceberg and absorption
Treasuries

Breakouts are great. What I want to try this week is when I see them Ill try them live. No sim for them. I have to learn it!
Ill try to fade ranges as well. Or trade volume profile. HVA and LVA. Will try to look at delta divergence and ices and absorptions. Maybe I can learn some patterns here. For breakouts I mainly use footprint. For range fades or volume support and resistance I will try to look more at DOM. I think there has to be something that can show me what will probably happen. But will try it mainly in sim. Im still not sure what to look for.
Treasuries .... thats sth completely different. I see huge potential in this market. I want to learn DOM here. I want to feel this market. Then I can trade steps in profile and breakouts for in highs and lows. Maybe retracements or ranges. Will see

Thats it for a sum up.
Im looking forward for next week

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  #22 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
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19.th of april ...

Well today was really wild. Im done trading. It wasnt a complete disaster, but had my two live trades for a day with 2 looses. I have my new rules and I have to follow them so I turned it off.

So lets start.

ETH no trades. Nothing really looked good for me.
Then RTH started and daaaamn it was wild for me. I just couldnt grab it. We developed a nice volume profile and thought I can maybe fade it. Or play for breakouts out of big HVA. But I missed everything. I was in sim and just trying to catch market's rhythm. I couldnt.

So I switched to ZF and had one nice sim trade:
  1. 3 levels of huge bids. More then 3.2k
  2. We took offer and those bods moved up. Interesting
  3. We had huge selling and price didnt move. I get in with long. My target 2 ticks. Got filled in 2 mins ... which is really fast for ZF

Then this developed. I actually missed this one. I tried to switched from sim to live and then missed momentum
  1. We developed this nice HVA
  2. This was low of the session
  3. Nice breakout. I saw momentum and found out Im on sim and I wanted to trade it live. So I switched and missed it
  4. As I missed this one and I didnt want to chase it I observed here. My idea was that we will develope another HVA and we actually did. From this point we get back to initial HVA

Then ZF was slow so I switched to ES. It was very wild and I just could do anything. Then we came to this interesting area of low support.

We already bounced 2 times from this point so I hesitated a little bit here. It could have been a nice breakout to lows as well. In heatmap we can see a huge bid sitting there for a long time. We traded into it first time with small amount of lots (around 25) and bid didnt pull. I had long bias now. We traded second time and we took it with around 300 lots and we immediately bounced. I missed it. Was too slow and I didnt want to chase it.

Some time later we came to the same spot again. But now it was a resistance. We traded below it and we came back for a second time.

So as you can see (red arrow) I went short. I saw nice momentum and was like I just cant miss another nice trade. So I went in. Well .. I got stopped. We traded 3 ticks in my favour and I was like YEAH! Finally! It came to my price and I wasnt really worried. But then boom and I was out.

Then this happened:


Some time later we traded higher. There was this huge momentum upwards into 4150.25. Then there was this INSANE amount of selling. More then 2k contracts were sold into 4150. But price held. WTH was this? Was this some kind of absorption? Algos magic? I was so confused. It happen so quickly that I can observe just from this picture. So we traded into 50.25. On 50 suddenly huge bid appeared. Dont know how huge it was, but we traded 2k lots into it to finally break it. Then we traded just few ticks below and we jumped back into that lvl.

So ... I did this:

We came back to 50.25 and bounced back to 49. From there back to 50.25 but slightly higher and we started chopping. In my head this was a great place for long. I thought that buyers are holding this zone and just absorbed 2k lots and we will jump into moon. So I went long. We traded few ticks higher really slowly and then back to my price. I should have scratched it in this point but I didnt. Then sudden momentum and I got stopped out.

So ... today was wild and I just couldnt do anything. Had some ideas but either missed it or got stopped. But Have a nice lesson here:

Lesson:
Work on trade management. Having stop orders is nice, but if Im expecting a momentum and there is no momentum, just scratch the trade! Or take one tick winner or looser. If that momentum will come in few seconds, do another trade. If not, you wont loose.
But this is really hard! Its much easier to do it in treasuries. But Im here to learn. So learn it damn!

I found out a gold on YT. His name is Fat Cat. He trades order flow. He has some excellent videos. He has this series about learning orderflow and DOM trading and he suggested this one tick drill. Take just one tick winners or try to scratch trade for break even. Do at least 20 trades a day for a month.
I think purpose of this is to develop a skill for reading DOM and where can market go in next few seconds. So when you have your strategy and looking for entry point, this might really help. And maybe even more importantly to develop a skill for going out from bad trades with as low damage as possible. I will try it next few days

EDIT:
I couldnt resist and opened sierra one more time to have just a look what was going on today. It looks like If I took those missed trades, if I would jump on momentum even on not the best entry price, I would gain some nice profits. This usually never worked for me. But today it was really volatile and this could work. So I will make a note here for future studies

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  #23 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
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What a day today!!!

I made a nice LIVE trade today and I couldnt be more happier. I actually did 2. With first one I got stopped really quickly, but I immediately went in second time and got really nice trade! I will post it here in a sec. But before that ... some WTH time

So this developed:

This happened in ETH
  1. Huge move down in about 20+ points ... yes ... points. ETH was wild
  2. Zoomed in little bit here to this section
  3. See this? Huge absorption. I underlined it also in footprint


As you can see. It was a bigger player. My tape has filter for 20+ volume. Its set up for RTH for mid players (got 90+ for big ones) And all those selling (and absorption) was done in bigger chunks
I didnt know what to do, so I observed

Then this happened:

We trader back to absorption zone and we traded little bit above. Immediately HUGE bid popped up. I was like damn thats weird. Some trickery is going on. That has to be a spoof order.


We traded into it. Just 90 contracts and bid disappeared. But it appeared few ticks below I was like well ... what will happen now


It happened again. Now we traded into it little bit more and it again showed up few ticks below. But now closer to original price. We traded there again but this time it stayed and we bounced.
Was this done by guy who was selling before or who was absorbing before? Somehow tricked market with spoof orders that were actually then real? Who can explain I really wanna know what happened here.
But I watched this price from that point

RTH session and my greatest trade that I ever had
But before ... I wanna discuss this:


I was done live and jumped back to sim. (my rules ... will talk about that in a sec)
  1. Huge bid again after traded above 4145.00. We traded huuge into that but price didnt move. I went long
  2. Momentum was lost so I get out
  3. We traded below that absorption so I tried short with like 2 tick tight stop
  4. Momentum lost, I was out
  5. WTH?!??! This happens from time to time ... Somebody just boought like 10 prices at once. But it was 1-10 lots accoridng to my tape (not visible here)
  6. Again huge selling into 4145. Huge bid and huge absorption.

I also attached a tape here, but is really long so I wont embed it into text

And it happened again:
  1. We traded into 4140. Remember that price from ETH? We had momentum down, so I went short after test of that price
  2. In this point somebody again bought like 10 prices with small lots
  3. My stop was here ... was trailing down because we had nice momentum
  4. But that bying was so quick that even Sierra got tricked and I was out in this price and not on my stop

So what is this? It happens from time to time. This huge buying or selling. But with really small lots. Are those big players? Institutions?


LIVE TRADE
Back to live trade it happened before all these sim trades I showed you

  1. Zone of big offers sitting there for long time. Somebody tried to buy more then 2k lots there but it got absorbed. I went short immediately. It either bounce a liitle or we will have nice down move
  2. Had a tight stop for 4 ticks. Price jumped into my stop precisely at a tick and jumped right back to that zone I was like damn!!!
  3. But there was no momentum upwards ... Still looked like it will go down ... So I went short second time
  4. Great! it went down. Nice momentum. We chopped a bit here and I was so nervous. My hand was sitting on my target stop to move it there, but I waited, because momentum was still nice
  5. I knew that we can go at least to this price. Looked at volume profile and there was this edge. I anyway moved my target even lover and decided to move my stop closer to price. As soon as I saw moemntum started to loosen up I moved my stop there end exited

Im so proud of myself now!!! I didnt panic at forst throw out and still had my bias and I saw momentum and did a good trade. My rules are: -25$ or +25$ max 2 trades live a day. Well ... that was second trade. Thats why I went back to sim. Where btw I did another good 3 trades.

Well thats it for today.

Lesson:
Well ... not a real lesson for today. But observe all kind of absorptions. In ETH we had one that was developing for longer time. In RTH there are many absorptions. Some of them are huge. Observe them more! There might be a pattern.
Also observe volume profile. Volume can show us support and resistance. There are patterns how to trade developing volume profiles. Also small ones for a scalps. It can be applied maybe to a range fade. I know there are patterns. Also for breakouts. Need to find out more and then look for those patterns

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  #24 (permalink)
lightsun47
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"So what is this? It happens from time to time. This huge buying or selling. But with really small lots. Are those big players? Institutions?"

It's the spoofing you talking about? It's happens everyday?

Of course it's big players 'legitimately' doing this, trapping us retail traders everyday, every time. It's part of the game!

Have you noticed despite ES earning the title of one of the most traded liquid instruments, it's getting worse and worse everyday with these kinds of bull%$%$ false moves and breakouts?

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 Malykubo 
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lightsun47 View Post
"So what is this? It happens from time to time. This huge buying or selling. But with really small lots. Are those big players? Institutions?"

It's the spoofing you talking about? It's happens everyday?

Of course it's big players 'legitimately' doing this, trapping us retail traders everyday, every time. It's part of the game!

Have you noticed despite ES earning the title of one of the most traded liquid instruments, it's getting worse and worse everyday with these kinds of bull%$%$ false moves and breakouts?

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It does happen everyday. So I have a question now. Can we somehow utilised this? Or just wait and dont trade at all if I see this. Or that is really high end trading strategy

Oh and btw, Im trading MES, but on ES charts and DOM. Sierra has this feature, you can put trades on ES DOM and chart and it will go to MES. Is this still relevant? I still have MES DOM open, just to confirm my trades are going there and Im not accidentally putting ES trades and looking at MES DOM there were no huge orders on those prices.

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lightsun47
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Those erratic, unpredictable, 'part of the game' moves CAN be part of our trading strategy - you never know! And only nerds can trade that.

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 Malykubo 
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lightsun47 View Post
Those erratic, unpredictable, 'part of the game' moves CAN be part of our trading strategy - you never know! And only nerds can trade that.

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We never know! I would love to be that nerd Lets beat those huge institutions in their own game!

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 Malykubo 
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I couldnt trade much today. Was away during most of RTH

But I got few observations and I love observations looks like that is the only thing Im good at rn Hopefully I will create sth out of these observations

So again some absorbing or iceberg

  1. So I saw this iceberg here. Or absorption. Its the same thing for me I guess. So nice selling and price didnt move. On tape you can see 20+ lots in left and on thop that is combined for 100+ lots
  2. I went long ... But there was no momentum so I was able to strach it

  1. Initial absorbing
  2. Second absorbing, but we moved through. There was huge selling

  1. So we moved back to initial absorbing zone. Went long. No momentum so I scratched
  2. Nice momentum down so I changed my mind and went short. I thought that well we tried break that zone long but it didnt so this move can actually be big. Maybe even to low of the day
  3. It reversed here. It was also kinda an edge of volume profile ... edge of HVN. But I was holding
  4. Holding also because delta divergence looked awesome.
  5. It moved to my price so I scratched again

Well ... there was iceberg on bid side. No big moves there. There could be a trade for 1-2 points .... I mean ... I will take it everyday But I expected long and short. I guess trade a momentum here? Will see OBSERVING PHASE


I tried to fade HVN later:
  1. Looked to me as HVN
  2. This as LVN
  3. Tried 2 longs here and ended up with 2 tick loss
We then turn into big range

But then I observed very nice thing! This actually can develop into a proper strategy if I can observe it more
  1. I faded High of the day. I just had this feeling. There was nothing on tape. Momentum looked nice, but not strong. Also I put my stop to VPOC of that HVN and we ended up right there
  2. But this was more interesting ... We started to trade above POC. Then we tested high of HVN and then I saw some bigger players buying. And that was a real momentum. This looked strong and it was and we broke it
  3. Tape showing 20+ lots and not singles. So bigger players traded there and wanted to push price higher


So let write some lesson now:

Lesson:
Icebergs and or absorption has to have momentum for a nice move. Observe it more, but momentum can play a big role here
Breakouts from range or HVN are more probable with big players. I guess Look more at tape at these zones of probable breakouts or fades

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  #29 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
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Didnt trade much today. Didnt have time

But I got one topic I wanna talk about.

Cumulative Volume Delta
Are there any setups? Or its just lacking indicator.

Look at this:
  1. Price went down. We had lower high. But Delta went up with higher high
  2. Now we had lower low with price and higher low with delta
So .... how to look at this? There definitely was a divergence. But How to look at this? Should we establish a trend? Like in up trend we should look at highs and in downtrend to lows? Or it doesnt matter? Should we look at higher timeframe or any? And .... ok ... heres the thing. Imagine we are getting higher high with price, but delta is not following. Like obvious divergence. But ... where is the end of that move? What if we just suddenly jump into moon and delta will follow.

I found great article and nice picture I wanna share here (hope its not a problem, but that blog is free)

Its from tradingriot com. Very nice blog.
In this picture we see absorption and exhaustion. But there should be a trend. But it should be in bigger trend? Or maybe just a small trend?

I tried 2 trades:
  1. Price going down, delta up
  2. I saw nice buying ... I thought this might be bottom and we maybe bounce. My target was high of that HVN, but I panicked in middle
  3. So we made another lower low, but delta went up again. I waited for a small up momentum and tried to hold it to high of HVN.
  4. I took 1 tick win ... we bounced and went to my entry so I was out

Well .. I jumped from ES to treasuries, because I still wanna learn them so Im observing them as much as possible

And this was really interesting. This was a prime example of absorption.
  1. Big down move. And here we traded more then 5k lots into bid. 8k lots it total
  2. We broke that level with 831 lots. But it was so quick that my heatmap didnt even updated so buyers moved it back to 124 even in split f a second. So this was like a barrier
From that point we just move up. I was expecting at least a bounce, but nice reverse ... but now I saw like a prime example how buyers just stood there. If we stopped at that price and chop around ... that is happening all the time. Now I could really feel up momentum

Sooooo lesson
Lesson:
Well ... what to do with delta divergence? I dont think it can be traded just like that alone. It might help in some cases, but just help. I have to lean on other things and maybe confirm it with delta divergence?
Treasuries are really slow ... big moves has real momentum and absorption is really feel-able

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  #30 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP, cqg with denali
Trading: MES, ZN, ZF
 
Posts: 50 since Feb 2021
Thanks: 19 given, 81 received

New week new opportunities

I could trade much on friday nor today. I wasnt even home during weekend. But I was watching some fat cat videos (fat cat trader ... I dont have any weird fetish) and I really like his style. Volume profile orderflow trading. I like volume profile. I think it has huge meaning. But its very new for me.
So I was thinking, because Im in a state where I find sth new which is exiting and it might work and I start to look just on that new thing and its obviously not working for me. So I want to write about it and write myself a lesson here. Because it is just so easy to look at volume profile as a holy grail and ruin everything that Ive already learned.

So I cant! I will write this here so I can then look on volume profile and add it to what I already know. Like: watch VP during range breakouts. Watch VP with range fades. Watch VP and absorbing. Maybe they have sth in common. I bet they do! I just need to find it. Boy this is nice lesson ... I will copy paste this in the end of this post.

So after weekend away and noot looking at any charts I tried only VP trades today. I still cant see any setups, but I know HVN and LVN can create support and resistant. And that VP ... or better ... HVN are created because price is in balance. When in balance, we are in range. Aha! sth in common. So breakouts and fades can be somehow applied to VP and HVN and LVN.

So lets have a look on this:


This was during ETH. And it was painfully slow as ETH can be
  1. Range we established
  2. Hmmm how convenient... low of range at LVN ... support?
  3. We traded under. Like a test .. it was to slow to be a breakout
  4. I was thinking, that this LVN can act as a resistant now. So I tried several shorts and put my stops at the high of LVN. Well ... we didnt trade back to range, but I got stopped. Maybe its not precise on on tick. Maybe I should look at it as a zone ... but then where to know Im on wrong side?
  5. I panicked (even I was in sim) and stepped away from trade
  6. My initial target. It was previous close (I think ... or some other kinda important zone from friday)

Well ... my bias was good. I was right. But I could see if im wrong. Where to put stops? Or it will be just feeling?

Lets see a second one:


This was in RTH
  1. LVN from overnight session. We had momentum and I thought we would just blast through it. I went long
  2. Ther was this HVN here ... just one price. And now looking at picture I dont know why I was thinking this can go higher. It was obvious resistant
  3. I had different think in mind. I wanted to try fade a range. I was still long biased. So I thought I can fade range and maybe catch a bigger ride. It went 2 ticks against me and I wanted too go out, but I misclicked ... But we went higher. We went higher then LVN and actually ... as Im looking at it rn. We went into POC of HVN that was above that LVN
  4. We traded into LVN. I panicked. But ... funny ... because I can see it now and I could before. Now that LVN really act as a support. We just traded higher and we tested it.
  5. See this edge? Resistant for HVN range we established later.

This is soooo great!!! As Im writing this I just noticed stuff that I couldnt see before. That is so awesome!
So ... HVN and LVN do act as a support and resistant. But I guess its not precisely on tick perfect. Maybe like a zone? I dont know yet.
But as I said with my breakout trades ... wait for confirmation ... maybe confirmation of support or resistant is when we trade through and we test it and bounce ... like in point 4 here in last picture.

I have to observe more ... But with VP I think some nice scalps are possible and also nice runners If I will be able to see bigger picture. Like yesterday's volume profile and you know ... TPO? But that is too much for now ... have to keep it slow and simple and slowly build my skills ... damn im still in sim

So observe this!!! and now ... copy pasted lesson:

Lesson:
Watch VP during range breakouts. Watch VP with range fades. Watch VP and absorbing. Maybe they have sth in common. I bet they do! I just need to find it. HVN and LVN can act as support and resistant ... watch closely for retests from other side when we trade through

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 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP, cqg with denali
Trading: MES, ZN, ZF
 
Posts: 50 since Feb 2021
Thanks: 19 given, 81 received

I didnt trade much today. And I wont much this week either
But I made nice improvement in Sierrachart today. I had my DOM integrated with heatmap. But I add additional separate DOM next to it and discard chart DOM. Separate DOM can have better update interval and its smoother. But I had some torubles to keep them in sync scale wise. But Sierra is awesome and I can link them and sync up scale settings! YEY! Its awesome!


As you can see ... its awesome
And I tried some volume trades:
  1. We were trading around VPOC at 84.25 and then we sold into I thought is a resistant
  2. HVN I thought can act as support. We started chopping and I had long bias so I went long. Got out, because LVN at 83.25 so I got scraed. We eventually got through
  3. We again traded into this HVN
  4. We tried LVN at 83.25 and I thought this will be resistant so I went short
  5. There was kinda absorption and you can see bigger bid at 82.00 so I bailed out. Unfortunately we traded through and ripped

So Im still trying to find an edge with HVNs and LVNs and try to use it with ranges and breakouts. So far I can see that these prices can act as magnets. Dont know yet if there will be support or resistant, but maybe I can learn that from context.

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 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP, cqg with denali
Trading: MES, ZN, ZF
 
Posts: 50 since Feb 2021
Thanks: 19 given, 81 received

Today I was eager for some live trades. And it looked we can have a huge run up! But

  1. Well this was horrible trade. Idea was kinda good ... but that execution. It was really risky. My idea was, that we can just rip through highs into moon and I wanted to run that early ... we were trading there for some time and and it looked it might get over. But .... That was only indication. I shouldnt have tried it here. Shoould have waited for some confirmation or some better momentum. Even worse ... I was waiting that we bounce to my price ... well we didnt and I got stopped with hard stop
  2. This one here was actually great idea. We bounced from LVN and at 85.00 there was huge iceberg sitting at bid. Went long .... we could have run into moon ... but we started chopping and there was no momentum ... just fight. I got out with one tick winner. I have to say ... execution here was spot on
  3. We completely lost momentum here and I could feel we not gonna go any higher ... got out

So .... these were my 2 live trades. Done with live for today :/ and it could have been such a nice move. I ended up -8$ with commissions.

So I switched to sim and tried one more trade:
  1. We bouced from low of session which was also ONL. But there wasnt much bying and I thought we might attack low one more time. So I went short ... we test that low and we bounced from that huge bid. I was out ... If we have traded thrugh ... it could have been nice down move

Lesson:
So ... todays lesson. Wait for confirmation ... not just a feeling. If you have string feeling wait for at least sth. Absorption, iceberg, momentum ... sth. If you expected big move and its not coming ... bail out. Dont wait. Execution is the most important part of trade

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 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP, cqg with denali
Trading: MES, ZN, ZF
 
Posts: 50 since Feb 2021
Thanks: 19 given, 81 received

Soooo I will be away till end of this week. Today I tried few live trades. Got some nice observation as well
And damn ... what a rip so far (hour and half into RTH)

First of all ... small observation of treasuries. I really want to learn them, so Im trying them in sim.
  1. We were in this volume for some time and then we break through
  2. I was watching it and was trying to find when this move ends and was looking for some signs. From nobsdaytrading I know there might be backticking as a first sign of break ending. There was this huge bid sitting and we traded into, but it didnt pull
  3. Saw some backticks. Huge bid not pulling ... went long. Just one tick ... as an observation. Got filled and had one tick winner
We then ended in a range. So if there is a break we usually end up in a range for some time. This range is around 3-4 ticks. Nice scalp for future

And now for sth more important.
Lets talk about support and resistance

  1. Im really trying to adapt volume into what I can see on charts and DOM. This was ETH and for 6 hours we couldnt trade above this line here. And it super nicely sync with LVN
  2. We traded though and I was waiting for some retest before going long. We had retest so I went long
  3. I bailed out ... It was painfully slow and there was another LVN and I thought this my be another resistance

Look from DOM:
  1. Resistance that became support
  2. My long entry
  3. LVN

This is how it developed
  1. We established a range. LVN there was really a resistance
  2. I saw a nice buyers in delta
  3. Went long at HVE thinking we will break it with nice momentum
  4. There was nice absorption so I got out ... it might have been a false break

Well it wasnt a false break. Its just really slow ETH
  1. Range we were in
  2. My long entry
  3. This I thought was a retest .... but maybe it was retest later? ETH is slow so
  4. We made a new high as well

Then RTH started ...

I was so mad ... I missed this ... didnt get filled :/ Would have been a nice 1.5 point scalp ... I would have been afraid to hold it but if I would have ... 20 points move down!!! Damn

And then there was this:
Remember my range setups?
  1. Range we developed .... it lasted around 15 mins
  2. Breakout ... huge absorption here
  3. My setup!!! Retest of range ... then huge move down

But I wasnt really paying attention to footprint. I was looking at DOM and volume profile
  1. Range we had
  2. Absorption
  3. Retest
But it looked so funky from this point of view. Specially before that absorption. There was move down and then back to range and then move down again even lower and then this absorption ... And it was really fast.
From volume profile or HVN LVN point of views ... it didnt look anything special. In point 3 you can see HVN there ... but my ETH volume was turned off. With it ... there actually was nice setup and pretty obvious resistance and support.

Lesson:
Well ... it looks like volume ... like HVN and LVN and edges there ... really act as support and resistance. Well ... with my previous range breakout setup ... that retest of range, that is basically a support flipped into resistance ... I have to observe these even more! I got this feeling that it is too much for me now. Found out about HVN and LVN and everything is messed up again and I have too much informations. But that is good. I just have to be more with these new infos and have to try align them together

Have a nice rest of the week all

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  #34 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP, cqg with denali
Trading: MES, ZN, ZF
 
Posts: 50 since Feb 2021
Thanks: 19 given, 81 received

Im back after 4 days. Was away for the weekend.

Todays RTH was too much for me. It was very volatile. Looking back at charts ... all now seem very reasonable. Rotations around HVNs and support and resistance around LVNs.
I wasnt trading live, but I tried few sim trades. Well ... few means around 30 but it had a meaning. I knew I wont do any live trades, so I just tried everything and was trying to find some system in this volatile market. I actually ended 2 points in profit.

My bias was correct 100% time. But only after market blows up in my face and I got out or my SL got me out .... Usually tick perfect
I just couldnt do anything right. All my entries were at bad prices.

But I got some observations from ETH and also from FESX. I will try to focus on FESX as well ... because trading hours are perfect for me and its not that quick as ES and not that slow as treasuries, but trading it is similar to treasuries.

Soo lets goo through FESX first:
  1. Market was strugling getting higher so I went short
  2. My stop was here at this LVN. Now looking at thiis ... it was a really stupid trade why entry there?
  3. I changed my bias. We traded higher and I thought well ... nice momentum, that LVN can hold. So II went long
  4. Nice trade here. It went to my target at this LVN

Another observation. Head fake?

Look at this HVE. Range with awesome support and resistance at LVNs
  1. Soooo was this a head fake? How too trade this? How to know if this is going to break or its a fake? Where is confirmation? I want to learn this?

Back to ES:
  1. Positive delta with negative bar in a range. Didnt trade it, but I had long bias
  2. Maybe this would have been a place to enter, or place for SL?

Lets have a look at DOM
  1. Range
  2. Entry point? or SL?
  3. Yesterday high .... market sometimes has some system

Head fake in ES?
  1. Range
  2. Fake break?
  3. We bounced from VPOC and my idea was that this was a false breakout and we will continue down and this HVE will stop up-move
  4. It didnt ... so then I had another idea. I saw somewhere and it was maybe a webinar here at FIO that there is play where we have sudden quick move down, then quick moove up, small pullback and then continue higher. So I went long at that HVE

Same picture from footprint:
  1. False break
  2. My wrong short entry
  3. my target
  4. My loss and changed bias to long

And final observation ... range break:
  1. Nice range around HVN
  2. Fake? Test? Nothing?
  3. We went through higer and tested range. I went long
  4. There was a huge size on bid and it got traded, soo I goot out ... we went much higher

From that point it was just horrible. Volatile RTH and I just couldnt do anything right.
I dont have any lesson today. I need to think about what has happened today. Looked like I finally got some edge over market. Small one ... but Im getting somewhere. Tooday ... just bad.

Well ... I know it takes time. But I got this feeling, that I have too many informations and Im fighting it. Trying to see setups where there arent any. Trying to understand every move that happens.
I was always looking for a retest of a zone until I put my entry. It sometimes worked and sometimes didnt. Now the real question is ... Were my observations correct? Should I wait for those specific retests? Should I do that everytime and well it wont simetimes work but more often it will? If yes ... I will do it! But what if that was just luck and Im trying to create setups from luck trades that statistically wont work? Or it is just about execution? Go out immediately if it goes against me?

I will try to sum everything up in next few days

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 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: AMP, cqg with denali
Trading: MES, ZN, ZF
 
Posts: 50 since Feb 2021
Thanks: 19 given, 81 received

So its end of this competition. And its end of my month doing this journal.

Its started just as part of competition and I really wanted to win jigsaw tools with its educational stuff ... but I guess this journal was much better education then anything else. At least for now

So thanks FIO for this opportunity and thanks all for nice and encouraging comments and replies

I didnt trade today. Dunno if I will be able tomorrow. Not much time these days. But I spent some time reviewing my trades. Also reading my journal. For past few days I also spent some time learning volume profile and how it can provide support and resistance.

And I would like to make some summarization.
I dont know who was and will read this. Maybe it was and will, because I really want to continue with this, helpful for traders that just started. And maybe it was funny to read for someone who is profitable and I made that person smile with my tries and maybe somebody will help me with finding my way. Because what I have learned is that one just cannot copy somebody else and has to find his own way.

And that comes what I found so far. I still dont have any playbook trades. I really want to find something. But thing is, that nothing is holy grail. I think that I have to find most probable setups. But its not easy. It takes time.
For example ... lets say there is setup that is 70% probable. But it happens just once per day. Which is good! Trade that every day and statistically I shoul be profitable 21 times per month. Great! But .... I dont know if what I have so far is THAT setup. What if I missed that already? What if I tried it 3 times in a row and it didn’t work out. I would have been like well ... this wont work. And what if, even worse, I found sth that worked 4 times in a row but it was just luck and I thought thats the setup! But well ... it isnt.

So I guess ... it takes time.

But I got sth already. But still cant find anything like X happens do this and if Y happens do this. Is there sth like that? Maybe it isnt and maybe you just have to do it everytime and just manage your trade.

It will make sense in a sec when I get into real setups and trades. But managing trades is a own huge topic. And maybe that is holy grail.

So so far I like ranges. You can fade them or ride breakout. If there is no breakout, there is fade. Yey! Simple! Hah ... but how do you know?
There is even head fake ... well ... I desperately tried to find an edge. Was looking at retest. Also price action. Absorbing. Volume profile.

Lets look at some pictures




This is so beautiful! See how those ranges aligned with volume profile?
  1. Range with support at overnigh low
  2. Breakout with nice momentum
  3. Range around HVN with VPOC
  4. Test of previous range and we traded through
  5. All the way up into range resistance

This is so nice and simple! But ... was this a breakout? Was this a head fake? Because we traded back and even through. Maybe it doesnt matter. Breakout or headfake ... It was nice setup.
With breakout I was always looking for test of range we are breaking. I would wait and trade that with SL in a range and with manual target. I would be stopped here. And here is a question. Should I do that all the time? Or should I look for other confirmation like absorption or sth else? Or if it wont do what I hope for I just change bias and go different direction, because now if int not going to trade there is high possibolity it will go to other side of range ... like in this scenario.

Lets have a look at another similar setup:
  1. Range
  2. Breakout with lots of volume here
  3. Retest of range
And we didnt bounce back and didnt go higher. We went back to range all the way back to low of that range

So was this a headfake? If this will happen everytime ... like if this wont break after retest there is high probability it will go to other side of range ... cool! that sounds like a setup. Now its a matter of managing this kind of trades.

How it looks like when it works?

  1. So we broke a range into this HVN
  2. retest of range
  3. retest of HVN high
  4. retest of HVN low

Or another one:
  1. Range
  2. HVN
  3. Retest of range

So far ... we got ranges. We can fade them for few scalps, we can break from them or we can fake break out from them. Now its about managing trades. Managing stops and target. How much breathing room should I give my trades? Is there some real strategy, or is that a feeling? Feeling like there is too much of selling/buying, absorbing, or order pulling/stacking ... or its about momentum?

For past few days I tried to learn volume profile. Well ... it didnt go good. I somehow forgot about everything else and was just looking at profile and nothing else. I wanted to trade everything. But what usually happened I got stoped out precisely on tick ... either by hard stop or manual stop. And then it went to my direction.

I will repeat that:
But what usually happened I got stoped out precisely on tick ... either by hard stop or manual stop. And then it went to my direction.

What does this mean? Was I correct with my bias? Well ... yes and no. I actually was, but my entry was really bad!!! Unfortunately I dont have any screens with trades, but got sth similar


Those points I marked in pictures are from previous post. But what is important here is n2. Its LVN.
in point 3 we traded through and we retest that. I would go short. But where would my stop go? Where I really know that im wrong. 71.50? 72.00? Or even 73?
As you can see I tried few trades in point 4. I stoped out from first one because it went to 72.25. Tick perfect it bounced
Second one stopped out at 71.75. Tick perfect bounced ...
Third I hold and I had nice trade. Should have hold even more ... but

And that is the question. I dont want to exit from trade because of some magic number ... like 6 ... 6 ticks agains me and Im out ... why?
So I was looking at VP ... but which one to choose? LVN? Edge of node? HVN? It will always bounce from sth ... but one time its LVN and other time its HVN

So .... what to do?
Should I look into momentum? Buying/selling? Delta? What can confirm Im wrong?

Until I finish this sum ... there is one more thing

Sim vs Live
I traded sim for 2-3 months ... In the beginning of this journal I tried live trades for the first time. I just cant tell you how much different it is. Its somthiing completely different. That fear! Fear of holding ... fear of even going into trade. And then ... blowing up almost 30% of my account in one day, because I had few bad trades and no rule can stop me to gain in back ... Yeah ... I lost even more. I was soooo pissed. I had to change my rules. And after that ... I was mainly sim trading.
But still I have to encourage everybody that didnt start live trading. DO IT!!! Just for one day and then come back to sim. Just to have this feeling. Then you will manage sim differently. Trust me!

After one month of doing this journal ... what have I learned?
I got this feeling, that I have learned nothing. And maybe ... maybe I have learned a lot!
I know there are zones worth trading. We got support and resistance. These zones are happening around volume profile. They can create ranges. We got some possibilities with ranges. We can fade them or we can play for breakouts. There are important zones like VPOC and even yesterday VPOC. Or yesterday high and low. Also composite profile from several weeks, months and years can be helpful for finding zones of interests.
So I have learned, there are these zones. These zones are worth trading. But ... how? What is that edge? I guess ... i just have to observe more. I would appreciate if somebody will tell me what to do. But even tho, I would need to observe it and try it on my own. Get this feeling.

For example ... lets say we are in a range and we traded into support. We even had a momentum and volume. But there is huge absorption. Bids are eating selling and there is huge selling, but its going nowhere. Should we go long? Should we wait and see how it develops and then go long? What if we miss it? And what if that selling will continue and it will dominate so much it will eat through bids and there will be huge sell off. What is here a more probable trade?
Maybe context? Maybe thiis ... feeling? Experience? Or maybe managing that trade.
Go long. If there is huge absorption, it should just rip too highs. Huge momentum. Its not happening? Bail out! Or a tight stop? Or both? Or not going long and go short and try the same but from short perspective? But that we can say its 50/50 ... well ... then maybe its not the right setup.

So what have I really learned?
Observing

And I guess ... I have to observe more.

Thanks all for going with me on this incredible journey. Specially thanks to @Anagami and @Sandpaddict for their kind and encouraging replies. I wont stop. I didnt have much time trading last few days and for next days it wont be much better. But I will try to observe. There just have to be some kind of edge. Price action?

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 Sandpaddict 
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Malykubo View Post
So its end of this competition. And its end of my month doing this journal.

Its started just as part of competition and I really wanted to win jigsaw tools with its educational stuff ... but I guess this journal was much better education then anything else. At least for now

So thanks FIO for this opportunity and thanks all for nice and encouraging comments and replies

I didnt trade today. Dunno if I will be able tomorrow. Not much time these days. But I spent some time reviewing my trades. Also reading my journal. For past few days I also spent some time learning volume profile and how it can provide support and resistance.

And I would like to make some summarization.
I dont know who was and will read this. Maybe it was and will, because I really want to continue with this, helpful for traders that just started. And maybe it was funny to read for someone who is profitable and I made that person smile with my tries and maybe somebody will help me with finding my way. Because what I have learned is that one just cannot copy somebody else and has to find his own way.

And that comes what I found so far. I still dont have any playbook trades. I really want to find something. But thing is, that nothing is holy grail. I think that I have to find most probable setups. But its not easy. It takes time.
For example ... lets say there is setup that is 70% probable. But it happens just once per day. Which is good! Trade that every day and statistically I shoul be profitable 21 times per month. Great! But .... I dont know if what I have so far is THAT setup. What if I missed that already? What if I tried it 3 times in a row and it didn’t work out. I would have been like well ... this wont work. And what if, even worse, I found sth that worked 4 times in a row but it was just luck and I thought thats the setup! But well ... it isnt.

So I guess ... it takes time.

But I got sth already. But still cant find anything like X happens do this and if Y happens do this. Is there sth like that? Maybe it isnt and maybe you just have to do it everytime and just manage your trade.

It will make sense in a sec when I get into real setups and trades. But managing trades is a own huge topic. And maybe that is holy grail.

So so far I like ranges. You can fade them or ride breakout. If there is no breakout, there is fade. Yey! Simple! Hah ... but how do you know?
There is even head fake ... well ... I desperately tried to find an edge. Was looking at retest. Also price action. Absorbing. Volume profile.

Lets look at some pictures




This is so beautiful! See how those ranges aligned with volume profile?
  1. Range with support at overnigh low
  2. Breakout with nice momentum
  3. Range around HVN with VPOC
  4. Test of previous range and we traded through
  5. All the way up into range resistance

This is so nice and simple! But ... was this a breakout? Was this a head fake? Because we traded back and even through. Maybe it doesnt matter. Breakout or headfake ... It was nice setup.
With breakout I was always looking for test of range we are breaking. I would wait and trade that with SL in a range and with manual target. I would be stopped here. And here is a question. Should I do that all the time? Or should I look for other confirmation like absorption or sth else? Or if it wont do what I hope for I just change bias and go different direction, because now if int not going to trade there is high possibolity it will go to other side of range ... like in this scenario.

Lets have a look at another similar setup:
  1. Range
  2. Breakout with lots of volume here
  3. Retest of range
And we didnt bounce back and didnt go higher. We went back to range all the way back to low of that range

So was this a headfake? If this will happen everytime ... like if this wont break after retest there is high probability it will go to other side of range ... cool! that sounds like a setup. Now its a matter of managing this kind of trades.

How it looks like when it works?

  1. So we broke a range into this HVN
  2. retest of range
  3. retest of HVN high
  4. retest of HVN low

Or another one:
  1. Range
  2. HVN
  3. Retest of range

So far ... we got ranges. We can fade them for few scalps, we can break from them or we can fake break out from them. Now its about managing trades. Managing stops and target. How much breathing room should I give my trades? Is there some real strategy, or is that a feeling? Feeling like there is too much of selling/buying, absorbing, or order pulling/stacking ... or its about momentum?

For past few days I tried to learn volume profile. Well ... it didnt go good. I somehow forgot about everything else and was just looking at profile and nothing else. I wanted to trade everything. But what usually happened I got stoped out precisely on tick ... either by hard stop or manual stop. And then it went to my direction.

I will repeat that:
But what usually happened I got stoped out precisely on tick ... either by hard stop or manual stop. And then it went to my direction.

What does this mean? Was I correct with my bias? Well ... yes and no. I actually was, but my entry was really bad!!! Unfortunately I dont have any screens with trades, but got sth similar


Those points I marked in pictures are from previous post. But what is important here is n2. Its LVN.
in point 3 we traded through and we retest that. I would go short. But where would my stop go? Where I really know that im wrong. 71.50? 72.00? Or even 73?
As you can see I tried few trades in point 4. I stoped out from first one because it went to 72.25. Tick perfect it bounced
Second one stopped out at 71.75. Tick perfect bounced ...
Third I hold and I had nice trade. Should have hold even more ... but

And that is the question. I dont want to exit from trade because of some magic number ... like 6 ... 6 ticks agains me and Im out ... why?
So I was looking at VP ... but which one to choose? LVN? Edge of node? HVN? It will always bounce from sth ... but one time its LVN and other time its HVN

So .... what to do?
Should I look into momentum? Buying/selling? Delta? What can confirm Im wrong?

Until I finish this sum ... there is one more thing

Sim vs Live
I traded sim for 2-3 months ... In the beginning of this journal I tried live trades for the first time. I just cant tell you how much different it is. Its somthiing completely different. That fear! Fear of holding ... fear of even going into trade. And then ... blowing up almost 30% of my account in one day, because I had few bad trades and no rule can stop me to gain in back ... Yeah ... I lost even more. I was soooo pissed. I had to change my rules. And after that ... I was mainly sim trading.
But still I have to encourage everybody that didnt start live trading. DO IT!!! Just for one day and then come back to sim. Just to have this feeling. Then you will manage sim differently. Trust me!

After one month of doing this journal ... what have I learned?
I got this feeling, that I have learned nothing. And maybe ... maybe I have learned a lot!
I know there are zones worth trading. We got support and resistance. These zones are happening around volume profile. They can create ranges. We got some possibilities with ranges. We can fade them or we can play for breakouts. There are important zones like VPOC and even yesterday VPOC. Or yesterday high and low. Also composite profile from several weeks, months and years can be helpful for finding zones of interests.
So I have learned, there are these zones. These zones are worth trading. But ... how? What is that edge? I guess ... i just have to observe more. I would appreciate if somebody will tell me what to do. But even tho, I would need to observe it and try it on my own. Get this feeling.

For example ... lets say we are in a range and we traded into support. We even had a momentum and volume. But there is huge absorption. Bids are eating selling and there is huge selling, but its going nowhere. Should we go long? Should we wait and see how it develops and then go long? What if we miss it? And what if that selling will continue and it will dominate so much it will eat through bids and there will be huge sell off. What is here a more probable trade?
Maybe context? Maybe thiis ... feeling? Experience? Or maybe managing that trade.
Go long. If there is huge absorption, it should just rip too highs. Huge momentum. Its not happening? Bail out! Or a tight stop? Or both? Or not going long and go short and try the same but from short perspective? But that we can say its 50/50 ... well ... then maybe its not the right setup.

So what have I really learned?
Observing

And I guess ... I have to observe more.

Thanks all for going with me on this incredible journey. Specially thanks to @Anagami and @Sandpaddict for their kind and encouraging replies. I wont stop. I didnt have much time trading last few days and for next days it wont be much better. But I will try to observe. There just have to be some kind of edge. Price action?

I wish you WOULD win. Your incredible dedication shows you will weather the storms.

I commend your journaling.

Keep it up and more importantly find what works and DOESN'T work for YOU. And cut what doesn't.

Also I found the best book I think I've ever read on trading.

No technicals. No charts. Just great explanations of what we experience as traders and actual strategies to combat our natural instincts (which in trading is detrimental).

https://www.amazon.com/Mental-Game-Trading-Confidence-Discipline-ebook/dp/B09253NDBB?tag=tapainc-20

In any case best of trading to you!

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  #37 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
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Sandpaddict View Post
I wish you WOULD win. Your incredible dedication shows you will weather the storms.

I commend your journaling.

Keep it up and more importantly find what works and DOESN'T work for YOU. And cut what doesn't.

Also I found the best book I think I've ever read on trading.

No technicals. No charts. Just great explanations of what we experience as traders and actual strategies to combat our natural instincts (which in trading is detrimental).

https://www.amazon.com/Mental-Game-Trading-Confidence-Discipline-ebook/dp/B09253NDBB?tag=tapainc-20

In any case best of trading to you!

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Thank you very much I think trading is a long run, but if one can stick to it eventually can be successful
Regarding this competition, @sstheo has really great and educational journal. I learned a lot. I think he deserves this win but still thank you a lot.

But I guess I still kinda won my journal helped me tremendously, which is the core of making journal.

That book looks really interesting. Will definitely have a look

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  #38 (permalink)
 sstheo 
Holladay, Utah, USA
 
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Malykubo View Post
Thank you very much I think trading is a long run, but if one can stick to it eventually can be successful
Regarding this competition, @sstheo has really great and educational journal. I learned a lot. I think he deserves this win but still thank you a lot.

But I guess I still kinda won my journal helped me tremendously, which is the core of making journal.

That book looks really interesting. Will definitely have a look


Thanks a bunch for the nice comment.

Looks like you found the true winners: Everyone who takes the time to journal. The benefits to trading can't be overstated.

Keep up the great work, and success in your trading.

sstheo

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  #39 (permalink)
 MNSTrading 
Grand Rapids, Michigan
 
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I'll play. Dear dumb diary, today is Friday which means I wound up all the positions I could by Thursday (yesterday) Did not wind up coffee and gold because both are on a strong upward trend and reversal into a downward trend in one day unlikely. Was rewarded on gold with another leg up and unrewarded on coffee with a downward trend indicated for next week.

upward trend indicated on Russell which i rode to the (current) top of the surge. will go in again after lunch if indicated. (I am skittish on Fridays) finished with gold, coffee and oil for the week.

QUESTION in your opinion, what are the four most liquid, most uncorrelated markets? Go.

Lunchtime. May all beings be happy and fed.

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 Sandpaddict 
Langley
 
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Malykubo View Post
Thank you very much I think trading is a long run, but if one can stick to it eventually can be successful
Regarding this competition, @sstheo has really great and educational journal. I learned a lot. I think he deserves this win but still thank you a lot.

But I guess I still kinda won my journal helped me tremendously, which is the core of making journal.

That book looks really interesting. Will definitely have a look

Agreed @sstheo is fantastic! Gives alot of great info. Is honest about his trading and is kind and gracious with his time.

I hope it goes to whoever NEEDS it or WANTS it the most but thats not the way it works.

Cheers my friend



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  #41 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
Bratislava Slovakia
 
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I'll play. Dear dumb diary, today is Friday which means I wound up all the positions I could by Thursday (yesterday) Did not wind up coffee and gold because both are on a strong upward trend and reversal into a downward trend in one day unlikely. Was rewarded on gold with another leg up and unrewarded on coffee with a downward trend indicated for next week.

upward trend indicated on Russell which i rode to the (current) top of the surge. will go in again after lunch if indicated. (I am skittish on Fridays) finished with gold, coffee and oil for the week.

QUESTION in your opinion, what are the four most liquid, most uncorrelated markets? Go.

Lunchtime. May all beings be happy and fed.

Hah a tricky question for me
Lets say I still got problem distinguishing volatility and liquidity. But can a volatile market NOT be liquid?

But regarding your question.

ES
CL
ZF
GC

But dunno really about correlations. I tried my best

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  #42 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
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Agreed @sstheo is fantastic! Gives alot of great info. Is honest about his trading and is kind and gracious with his time.

I hope it goes to whoever NEEDS it or WANTS it the most but thats not the way it works.

Cheers my friend



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But eventually it does not matter because I found out journaling is very valuable and I wouldnt know it without this competition

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  #43 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
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So competition ended and Im really glad, becasue I started doing this journal and even better ... Im still writing it which is awesome!

Today I tried some scalps. Mostly in ETH and few in the beginning of RTH. I cant trade anymore today, because my friend is getting vaccinated and Im his driver. Yey for him

ETH is usually slow, but it also usually developes nive volume profile with obvious S/R.
I tried few scalps today. It was mostly breakouts.

First one:

I tried to draw VP, because I took this screen later during a day and VP looked different.
As you can see I trade breakout. It went so slow so I got shaken up and got out thinking it will be fake. As always ... tick perfect before it run higher to my original target

Second one

So we developed a range after a fake breakout (was right actually)
We couldn’t trade lover so I went long. Also VP looked nice
Well ... we did usual thing in ES and somebody swept few prices so I got out with one tick profit thinking how I managed it so well. Well ... we bounced

Third one
Attachment 1
1: previous trade
2: went long here thinking there will be breakout. There was huge iceberg and we traded higher so that was my confirmation
3: got scared and got out. We traded back to iceberg
4: long again
5: got scared again thinking about small fakse break. Well we bounced again

So these were my ETH scalps. Good bias but shaken out everytime

Now to RTH


1: huge iceberg around 21.25
2: went long. Looked like sellers werent that strong
3: Got scared and got out ... again ... should have holded
4: nice resistance turned into support
5: Nice momentum so I went long and had a nice trade
6: My target
7: I thought that breakout was fake and usually then we trade to other side of range. SoI went short.
8: Not much momentum, so I took small profit

Got also second picture from RTH

1: Support zone
2: I tried short and got stopped out by hard stop. Again ... tick perfect I tried second short, because I was sure this will go down.
3: It went. Nice trade again

As you can see ... heatmap is unreadable because of pulling and stacking of orders
So I switched to NQ just for fun in sim


We developed nice range
1: Went long for a breakout
2: my target
3: resistance here so I got out

Actually a nice trade here as well.

Im glad with these small scalps. Will try them more tomorrow during ETH.

I have to hold trades more I guess. But I always expect a run. If its not happening Im shaken out. Usually during the worst time
So I guess ... either go out sooner and take second entry at the right time. Or just hold it more

Im writing this from mobile and dunno how screens will look like. If there will be some problem I will rewrite it later when I get home


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  #44 (permalink)
 Malykubo 
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I couldnt trade much yesterday. Came back home only for last hour of RTH

But I did one great live trade! Im really proud.
Well ... except I missclicked and instead of long I put a short limit order and lost 3 points

But Im not mad. My bias and execution was correct.


As you can see we developed a resistance zone around 50. We tested 3 times and on last one we had nice momentum but couldn’t get through


Then we reach that zone again and I saw hegu offer. I put my buy limit (well ... missclicked to sell) one tick above that level. I knew if we get over that huge offer we will break at least 2 points. Then we either run to moon or bounce back. But definitely at least 2 points.
Well ... it was 3 but then I found out Im short and not long

It happens


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 Malykubo 
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I traded just RTH today.
Was eager for some live trades and I broke my rules and did 5 trades.

I did it, because trades werent bad. Not good either but I felt good. Ended up just around break even. 1 point in profit.

But there us one very important thing I have noticed.

Yesterday I missclicked trade around huge offer.
Today we had bigger bid that wasnt pulling like every other bigger order in book.
I didnt trade it. Had my 5 trades and didnt feel like trying more. But I observed.

Will show you heatmap. Its ugly because of all those pulling :/ but


1: low of the day with around 350 bid underneath
2: I didnt like orderflow there but we traded through. But with very little volume. We chopped for few sec and bounced back
3: bounce at this zone
4: tested in again and bounced second time

Yesterday we had this huge offer and when we traded through it, it had volume and momentum. And we did 3 point move. Nothing significant but definitely tradeable.

Today ... nothing.
And I think, this can a be a playbook play. Have to observe this behavior more. But I can go into direction of breakout. If there is no momentum, go flat or take 1 tick winner and change bias back to range and play a nice bounce. We can end up in the other side of range.

It may have something to do with trapped traders. Maybe not specifically this one trade ... but look at this


We were in a range
1: Breakout with actually nice momentum. Also we break through LVN
2: We bounced back. And went to other side of range

What might have happened here was that traders that were long at breakout got trapped and after test they sell into BE and we moved down.


Same situation here. Except this was really choppy and I was really confused. But from fake breakout perspective it did what it should have done.

I got feeling, that no matter what setup Im trying to find, it always look 50/50 to me. Is that really true? Is it about execution? Or is there an edge?

Lesson
For breakouts we need volume and momentum. Then there is more probable that we will break from a range. Its very tricky to nail it. But when there is no momentum, go out for a small loss or profit. Dont wait.
When there is quick retest to breakout zone. We might bounce, but we might go through and there is high probability that we test other side of range. There should not be any chopping. It should have momentum as well. Then maybe stops are run and trapped trades are trading for BE

I think have to observe


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  #46 (permalink)
lightsun47
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There is always one question when it comes to people trading based mostly on heatmap / order flow: Do you 100% think you have THE EDGE you were looking for?

I have looked at several bookmap seminars, in which even the developers get caught with the 'games' being played in markets like ES.

There are tons of manipulations happening everyday. Tons.

I seriously wonder if the heatmap is REALLY the way to go - why everyone is still losing their money everyday?



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 Malykubo 
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lightsun47 View Post
There is always one question when it comes to people trading based mostly on heatmap / order flow: Do you 100% think you have THE EDGE you were looking for?

I have looked at several bookmap seminars, in which even the developers get caught with the 'games' being played in markets like ES.

There are tons of manipulations happening everyday. Tons.

I seriously wonder if the heatmap is REALLY the way to go - why everyone is still losing their money everyday?



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Well thing is ... I dont have any edge! Yet Im trying to find anything. I came from fibs to orderflow and current trend for me is volume profile.

Regarding heatmap. I tried it few months ago. I had this idea of super scalping. I still kinda have. But its different than what I had in mind back then.
I get used to heatmap. I setup it for volume based chart. Its really easy to see volume chunks. And also if price moved on high or low volume. I really wanted to learn orderflow and DOM reading. But I quickly found out that its really hard to do it on ES. Its quick. But I still think, orderflow can give us some edge. But it has to be combined with something else.

It does not necessarily has to be from DOM. But pulling and stacking orders are really visible there. Footprint is very important for me. Exhaustion and absorption is visible nicely there. I look also on delta.

And third main chart is 1min chart with 30min VPs and session VP. Im looking at S/R there.

I also use 30/60min chart with composite VP from past 3 years. HVNs and LVNs

What Im usually posting here is from heatmap, because it nicely shows what I had in mind.


I can give some examples
Also ... I tried ETH live trading today ... well ... Im down 1.75 points
What Im trying to achieve is to trade break through LVNs. If its not happening, usually we trade back to at least POC of a range we were in or to other side of range.
After looking at my trades and my tries. Maybe I should not trade breaks ... but I should trade fades Most of breakouts I saw were well ... fake so maybe that can be a high probability trade

  1. Range
  2. I went for long here. No momentum ... should have gone out much sooner. So we tested high of range and see how we went to other side?
  3. Now momentum came. Went long. My target was yesterday high. Momentum was so nice I pulled my target and put my stop to BE
  4. They swept sell 4 ticks under my entry ... right from YH :/ and it was so bad my BE got screwed up and I even lost tick :/
  5. So My bias was short now. Because we couldt trade higher. I put my entry to HVE, but didnt get filled :/ and see how we went through other side of range?

Here I tried playing LVN breakout from a range. It was headfake so my bias then changed to short which was correct, but I didnt get filled.

Here how 1min looked like
  1. My trades ... headfake
  2. This is the zone of resistant. Its aligned with LVN
  3. This was real break. It had momentum and we didnt even test that range

Just to show how heatmap looked like during real break

You can really see that momentum and volume on this chart. Im not using it that much for resting orders. Im looking at them ... like here in this case where that big green circle is. Somebody put there huge offer and it was traded. This could indicate that momentum is really strong and we can continue higher

My current "edge" ... well ... my what current edge might be if I learn it

VP HVNs and LVNs. Breaks and fakes.
This is RTH. There was nice break to higher prices. And then when we established new range and we tried higher ... it wasnt accepted and we felt back to range. This can be traded. Is there some kind of edge? Definitely .... do I know that edge? Definitely not

But Im trying and to be honest ... im kinda sad. I guess its still very soon for me to somehow know how to trade ... but damn! I thought that after what ... 5 almost 6 months I would have something tangible.
HVN and LVN make sense to me. I can see it. I see what price is doing around that. I think this is way to go now. Learning these patterns. But maybe im just looking at very quick timeframes. Or im trying to put my entry and stop based on noise ... I dont know ...

That is why Im writing this journal I hope I will figure it out and I read lot of great stuff here on FIO and maybe somebody just write me sth and it will click it for me. And suddenly I will see where that edge is and what should I be focusing on

But thanks for reply

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