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So competition ended and Im really glad, becasue I started doing this journal and even better ... Im still writing it which is awesome!
Today I tried some scalps. Mostly in ETH and few in the beginning of RTH. I cant trade anymore today, because my friend is getting vaccinated and Im his driver. Yey for him
ETH is usually slow, but it also usually developes nive volume profile with obvious S/R.
I tried few scalps today. It was mostly breakouts.
First one:
I tried to draw VP, because I took this screen later during a day and VP looked different.
As you can see I trade breakout. It went so slow so I got shaken up and got out thinking it will be fake. As always ... tick perfect before it run higher to my original target
Second one
So we developed a range after a fake breakout (was right actually)
We couldn’t trade lover so I went long. Also VP looked nice
Well ... we did usual thing in ES and somebody swept few prices so I got out with one tick profit thinking how I managed it so well. Well ... we bounced
Third one Attachment 1
1: previous trade
2: went long here thinking there will be breakout. There was huge iceberg and we traded higher so that was my confirmation
3: got scared and got out. We traded back to iceberg
4: long again
5: got scared again thinking about small fakse break. Well we bounced again
So these were my ETH scalps. Good bias but shaken out everytime
Now to RTH
1: huge iceberg around 21.25
2: went long. Looked like sellers werent that strong
3: Got scared and got out ... again ... should have holded
4: nice resistance turned into support
5: Nice momentum so I went long and had a nice trade
6: My target
7: I thought that breakout was fake and usually then we trade to other side of range. SoI went short.
8: Not much momentum, so I took small profit
Got also second picture from RTH
1: Support zone
2: I tried short and got stopped out by hard stop. Again ... tick perfect I tried second short, because I was sure this will go down.
3: It went. Nice trade again
As you can see ... heatmap is unreadable because of pulling and stacking of orders
So I switched to NQ just for fun in sim
We developed nice range
1: Went long for a breakout
2: my target
3: resistance here so I got out
Actually a nice trade here as well.
Im glad with these small scalps. Will try them more tomorrow during ETH.
I have to hold trades more I guess. But I always expect a run. If its not happening Im shaken out. Usually during the worst time
So I guess ... either go out sooner and take second entry at the right time. Or just hold it more
Im writing this from mobile and dunno how screens will look like. If there will be some problem I will rewrite it later when I get home
I couldnt trade much yesterday. Came back home only for last hour of RTH
But I did one great live trade! Im really proud.
Well ... except I missclicked and instead of long I put a short limit order and lost 3 points
But Im not mad. My bias and execution was correct.
As you can see we developed a resistance zone around 50. We tested 3 times and on last one we had nice momentum but couldn’t get through
Then we reach that zone again and I saw hegu offer. I put my buy limit (well ... missclicked to sell) one tick above that level. I knew if we get over that huge offer we will break at least 2 points. Then we either run to moon or bounce back. But definitely at least 2 points.
Well ... it was 3 but then I found out Im short and not long
I traded just RTH today.
Was eager for some live trades and I broke my rules and did 5 trades.
I did it, because trades werent bad. Not good either but I felt good. Ended up just around break even. 1 point in profit.
But there us one very important thing I have noticed.
Yesterday I missclicked trade around huge offer.
Today we had bigger bid that wasnt pulling like every other bigger order in book.
I didnt trade it. Had my 5 trades and didnt feel like trying more. But I observed.
Will show you heatmap. Its ugly because of all those pulling :/ but
1: low of the day with around 350 bid underneath
2: I didnt like orderflow there but we traded through. But with very little volume. We chopped for few sec and bounced back
3: bounce at this zone
4: tested in again and bounced second time
Yesterday we had this huge offer and when we traded through it, it had volume and momentum. And we did 3 point move. Nothing significant but definitely tradeable.
Today ... nothing.
And I think, this can a be a playbook play. Have to observe this behavior more. But I can go into direction of breakout. If there is no momentum, go flat or take 1 tick winner and change bias back to range and play a nice bounce. We can end up in the other side of range.
It may have something to do with trapped traders. Maybe not specifically this one trade ... but look at this
We were in a range
1: Breakout with actually nice momentum. Also we break through LVN
2: We bounced back. And went to other side of range
What might have happened here was that traders that were long at breakout got trapped and after test they sell into BE and we moved down.
Same situation here. Except this was really choppy and I was really confused. But from fake breakout perspective it did what it should have done.
I got feeling, that no matter what setup Im trying to find, it always look 50/50 to me. Is that really true? Is it about execution? Or is there an edge?
Lesson
For breakouts we need volume and momentum. Then there is more probable that we will break from a range. Its very tricky to nail it. But when there is no momentum, go out for a small loss or profit. Dont wait.
When there is quick retest to breakout zone. We might bounce, but we might go through and there is high probability that we test other side of range. There should not be any chopping. It should have momentum as well. Then maybe stops are run and trapped trades are trading for BE
There is always one question when it comes to people trading based mostly on heatmap / order flow: Do you 100% think you have THE EDGE you were looking for?
I have looked at several bookmap seminars, in which even the developers get caught with the 'games' being played in markets like ES.
There are tons of manipulations happening everyday. Tons.
I seriously wonder if the heatmap is REALLY the way to go - why everyone is still losing their money everyday?
Well thing is ... I dont have any edge! Yet Im trying to find anything. I came from fibs to orderflow and current trend for me is volume profile.
Regarding heatmap. I tried it few months ago. I had this idea of super scalping. I still kinda have. But its different than what I had in mind back then.
I get used to heatmap. I setup it for volume based chart. Its really easy to see volume chunks. And also if price moved on high or low volume. I really wanted to learn orderflow and DOM reading. But I quickly found out that its really hard to do it on ES. Its quick. But I still think, orderflow can give us some edge. But it has to be combined with something else.
It does not necessarily has to be from DOM. But pulling and stacking orders are really visible there. Footprint is very important for me. Exhaustion and absorption is visible nicely there. I look also on delta.
And third main chart is 1min chart with 30min VPs and session VP. Im looking at S/R there.
I also use 30/60min chart with composite VP from past 3 years. HVNs and LVNs
What Im usually posting here is from heatmap, because it nicely shows what I had in mind.
I can give some examples
Also ... I tried ETH live trading today ... well ... Im down 1.75 points
What Im trying to achieve is to trade break through LVNs. If its not happening, usually we trade back to at least POC of a range we were in or to other side of range.
After looking at my trades and my tries. Maybe I should not trade breaks ... but I should trade fades Most of breakouts I saw were well ... fake so maybe that can be a high probability trade
Range
I went for long here. No momentum ... should have gone out much sooner. So we tested high of range and see how we went to other side?
Now momentum came. Went long. My target was yesterday high. Momentum was so nice I pulled my target and put my stop to BE
They swept sell 4 ticks under my entry ... right from YH :/ and it was so bad my BE got screwed up and I even lost tick :/
So My bias was short now. Because we couldt trade higher. I put my entry to HVE, but didnt get filled :/ and see how we went through other side of range?
Here I tried playing LVN breakout from a range. It was headfake so my bias then changed to short which was correct, but I didnt get filled.
Here how 1min looked like
My trades ... headfake
This is the zone of resistant. Its aligned with LVN
This was real break. It had momentum and we didnt even test that range
Just to show how heatmap looked like during real break
You can really see that momentum and volume on this chart. Im not using it that much for resting orders. Im looking at them ... like here in this case where that big green circle is. Somebody put there huge offer and it was traded. This could indicate that momentum is really strong and we can continue higher
My current "edge" ... well ... my what current edge might be if I learn it
VP HVNs and LVNs. Breaks and fakes.
This is RTH. There was nice break to higher prices. And then when we established new range and we tried higher ... it wasnt accepted and we felt back to range. This can be traded. Is there some kind of edge? Definitely .... do I know that edge? Definitely not
But Im trying and to be honest ... im kinda sad. I guess its still very soon for me to somehow know how to trade ... but damn! I thought that after what ... 5 almost 6 months I would have something tangible. HVN and LVN make sense to me. I can see it. I see what price is doing around that. I think this is way to go now. Learning these patterns. But maybe im just looking at very quick timeframes. Or im trying to put my entry and stop based on noise ... I dont know ...
That is why Im writing this journal I hope I will figure it out and I read lot of great stuff here on FIO and maybe somebody just write me sth and it will click it for me. And suddenly I will see where that edge is and what should I be focusing on
I wasnt trading much. Past weeks were little bit busy for me. I was trading only hour a day or so, but was watching charts as much as I could during my day job.
I was able to trade first hour or two today. Dunno why, but I gained confidence and was trading live
I know I have my rules of max 2 trades. But I tried more and I wasnt loosing much (I actually had winners) so I kept trading until I didnt feel it.
But there was one obvious thing that happend today and I wanna write about it.
I think big players were positioning themselves absorbing between 60-56
Look at VP and this HVE at 60 that created support. 60 was huge absorption. HUGE!
As we traded lower it was different. Like somebody let us. Then they absorbed a bit and we traded higher. Then back to that zone and again position gaining.
I tried shorting it one time. Didnt work.
I had one possibility for a huge long run, but dodnt get filled :/
1: short try. Didnt go. Went out. Nice try and good execution with 2 tick profit and not a loss
2: Went long for a breakout. Missclicked ... or rather unwantclicked and I stopped myslef
3: Long again, but it was late. Again it didnt go but had hood execution and had a small win
4: Didnt get filled
5: I saw this delta divergence. We were reaching to 60 again. Was afraid to put my limit order there and waited what will happen. We bounced and I missed it by not getting filled.
I knew there was huge possibility for a bounce. Well ... was too afraid. But that absorption earlier with maybe trapped shorts ... should have put my limit there :/
Im glad I gained this confidence. I think I will loose my acount. But sim trading is different and I just have to try and learn.
One just have to get experience to be somehow okish here just hard work and try try try
1st trade: really stupid. Why would I short at 88 when at 90 there was obvious resistance. I guess I wass just greedy. Or FOMO.
2nd trade: I tried long here. Didnt work out. Eventually my bias was correct. I saw shift in delta.
3th trade: nice short. Tried even 2 lots for a bigger runner. Didnt run but it was good trade.
4th trade: Nice long! Huge buying and VP support. Tried 2 lots. Should have held it longer.
End of ETH. Was so happy ... but ... it was sim. But was buildin my confidence. RTH will be live
I even had a bias. Look at this. Normally I dont do this. But I guess ... its really important.
I screwed up this image so ETH is actually yesterday’s RTH
Last TPO is todays ETH.
TPO I marled with ETH is actually yesterday’s RTH.
We developed P profile in ETH. Last 20 min were so bullish its ruined P profile a bit but my bias was still bullish. See that long tail?
If we would have gone for gap play in RTH i would change my bias ... but we didnt.
Huge long bias. Also I thought it will be tranding day.
I did so bad!!! I couldn’t screw more
I missed opening long. Wanted to went long as soon as possible after so I wont chase market. We developed small range and I so desperately tried long it chopped me out every time.
I went for breakout. Forgot we usually have fakeout before real one. Its ok to try but then its best to wait for probable entry. And I didnt.
I was in loss and really wanted to see green numbers.
Last trade I made I told myself: last try. If I have justwaited little bot longer. Dunno why I made thatlast trade. Worst entry ever. Why did I do that? In the middle of pullback. Or rather in the middle of fake.
I remembered my third live day ever when I lost 25% of my capital. So I turned my pc and went away. This was only good choice I made.
I see now what I did wrong.
I was afraid of missing. FOMO
And i wanted to be in green
But I totaly forgot about bigger picture and what price is doing and where are obvious support and resistance.
But question is.
How do I know if price will bounce?
I see my mistakes but still ... what should tell me this will hold or this will get traded? If I want to wait for retest ... it might not come. And I will miss it.
I think I learned a lot in my 5 months of trading. But .... its nothing!
I wish I could say something but you said it. Experience.
Also some of the best traders in the world are probably no better than 50/50 in thier trading. Yes they make up for it in SIZE of wins but it also means they loose around HALF the time. Flip a coin.
So one thing I would say is learn that losing will always be part of the game.
Oh and stay in sim till profitable and keep your chin up
