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This will be my futures trading journal and a small account challenge combined.
I will start with a USD 1,500 live account with NinjaTrader Brokerage, trade micro contracts using the NT8 platform, and trade these markets only: MNQ, MES, M2K, M6A, M6B, M6E. I might add MICD and MIJY
I have a lifetime license and pay $0,51 per micro index contract and $0,42 per micro currency contract traded. The intraday margin required is $50 for all markets, except MNQ which is $100.
I have had huge ups and downs in my trading career (15+ years) and found risk management to be the single most important factor for my success (or failure). I have had a terrible tendency to overtrade, especially the NQ. With this challenge, I am taking a step back, focusing on good money management and careful setup selection from a technical standpoint. My goal here is to obtain consistency rather than looking at big wins.
I will not risk more than 2% of my account balance on all markets. If a setup requires more than 2% of my account balance due to stop placement, I have to skip the setup, unless I can find an entry on a lower timeframe. I use ATM strategies and per default aim at a 1:2 risk to reward ratio or higher on my setups. I don't focus that much on win rate but aim at around 60% win rate in the long run.
My trading style is based on swing type technical trading, identifying high probability setups on the higher timeframes such as daily, 4h, 1h, and timing entries on the 15m or 5m charts. My preferred method is pullback trades and trend continuation, with triggers based on price action off support and resistance zones. Screenshots will be added of my trades.
Not a whole lot I like this morning, so remaining on the sidelines for now.
A few comments below on the specific markets:
MNQ
Consolidation
I would like to see a break above 13150 or below 12700 for this to find a new direction.
The short-term range between 12975 and 12820.
MES
Uptrend
I would like to see a pullback to the 3915 area before looking for buying setups.
3930-35 is near support.
M2K
Trend Reversal in play
M2K being hit hard today, down over 2%.
Tripple top around 2220 and trendline retest possibly complete.
I would like to see a pullback to around the 2190 area before looking for selling setups.
M6E
Downtrend
I would like to see a pullback to the 1,1870 area before looking for selling setups.
Alternatively, a strong reversal setup to the long side.
Possibly a false breakout below 1,1780.
M6B
Downtrend
We have a nice pullback to the 1,3815 area and I will be shorting tomorrow if we see today close around this level just below 1,3800.
50% retracement completed around the 1,3838 area.
Target around 1,3640 so good R:R is possible.
M6A
Downtrend
We also have a nice pullback here to the 0,7650 area, but waiting to see a sell setup form.
Could also pull further back up towards 0,7700.
At the moment, M6B short is my favorite possible trade.
Sometimes, the market will just go without you. That's just a part of trading, like accepting losses. I don't feel too much FOMO today, but it was a very nice breakout above 13000 on MNQ. Upside, I see resistance around the previous swing high around 13150. The plan, for now, is to remain on the sidelines, and perhaps we will see a pullback tomorrow for a buying opportunity.
Same story with MES. Nice breakout right at the bell above 3970 and challenging 3975. Need to see a pullback before I can consider a long position.
M2K is testing 2220 yet again. A nice rebound off 2145.
Green day today and I finally got involved in a couple of trades. There were so many setups this week as momentum came back to the indices. Executed 2 trades, 1 on MNQ and 1 on MES, both winners. In hindsight, I could have taken many more and gotten long in MNQ sooner, but I really wanted to play this week from the conservative side.
Since I don't trade the open, it took a while to get the entries as I did not want to chase the momentum.
ROC for today is +2,11% after C&F's.
I am very pleased, I followed my rules and got out of the day with more money than I started with. Again, the goal here for me is not to bank huge wins, it is to establish consistency. Once consistency is established, I can consider adding to my account balance. No trading tomorrow as it's obviously Good Friday.
So looking ahead at next week, I have a couple of general ideas I am looking at. Each market commented below. This is just as much for my own sake, to make sure I get the pre-week analysis done. Let me know if you have thoughts on these.
MNQ
Uptrend
Large bullish breakout last week, blasting through 3 previous lower highs. I will naturally favor long trades going into next week, but looking at the lower time frames, there could be some interesting counter-trend trades if the market opens above 13345. My upside target for the next swing up is around 13700. If I take a counter-trend trade, my downside targets would be 13295 or if we see a lower pullback, then into the 13100-13150 zone. The risk to reward on a short trade seems reasonable, but it all depends on where the market opens tomorrow evening.
MES
Uptrend
At all-time highs and broke up through 3975 last week. I predict the near-term high could be around 4105. I will of course favor long positions next week but would need to see a pullback first. Ideally back to around 4000, but we'll see. Looks very strong at the moment. A screenshot is attached, look how pretty support and resistance levels were respected.
M2K
Uptrend
After breaking above the previous lower high around 2220, the Russel2000 future is now at new highs and pierced 2300 shortly after the jobs report was released Friday. Friday also marked the 4th consecutive bullish day for the market, so I expect a retracement and will be waiting for possible counter-trend setups and then ideally a place to jump back long.
M6E
Downtrend Bears defended their short positions around 1,1795 and next week I will be looking for opportunities to short this market. My downside target remains in the 1,1700-1,1680 area. If we do break and retrace higher, I will be looking to short around 1,1875.
M6B
Consolidation
There was potential for a double top just below 1,3850 but the market pushed just a little bit higher, so at the moment, I remain on the sidelines on this market.
M6A
Downtrend
Although we are in a downtrend, I am curious to see how the hammer candle from 01/04 will affect the coming days. There was a strong rejection at 0,7565 and below. Upside resistance starting at 0,7640.
Next week will be filled with plenty of opportunities, wait for the best ones and execute with good money management.
Very choppy day in MNQ and MES today, but I am thankful I managed to end green. Hope you all ended in the green as well. I started very early right when the markets opened on Sunday with some trades and have had 3 green days in a row if you include Sunday. Monday could have been a huge winning day, but I, unfortunately, closed some of my longs prematurely.
A couple of observations is that my win rate is not where I want it to be. Especially not today where it is around 40%. My avg. win to avg. loss ratio is satisfyingly positive as well is my largest win versus largest loss. I had one stupid loss today for about $75 due to internet issues, but I still came out green, fortunately.
The account currently stands at around $1,700 after deducting today's commissions. So a 13% gain after 3 trading sessions is beyond and above my expectations. I need to be aware not to use market orders, as it can lead to overtrading and slippage, but only using limit orders.
Market wise there was a clear lack of continued upwards momentum today in both MNQ and MES. Looks like the majority of volume was unwinding long positions and covering for profits. Tomorrow is another day
