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The Quick & The Dead: Day Trading NQ ES GC


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The Quick & The Dead: Day Trading NQ ES GC

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  #1 (permalink)
 EssDigs 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, Bookmap, IRT, TOS
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It was my plan to share what I'm doing once I found my sanity...

Years later, the search goes on, so I figured what the heck - I'll start now and just brain dump here.

Tune in if you like to check out my attempt to trade NASDAQ, S&P & GOLD Futures.

Not sure what will make sense from the thoughts, questions, plans, charts, forecasts, setups, trades and hindsight looks into the madness of my day.

Feel free to throw tomatoes or cheer... whatever floats your boat.


OK, let's jump right in with Statistical Edge!

So with the NQ, historically there's a 97% chance (approximately) that during the RTH session price will break Initial Balance High or Low... I went for it a few times today.


After a 3 attempts with very tight stop outs, then this:



10:54AM - The IB was in and this time, on Entry (Executing on Bookmap) I was able to get above the VPOC where I began a very tight trail (no faith at this level after taking a few slaps minutes earlier).

10:56AM - the Bulls ran into some decent Liquid right above the Century figure and it was Absorbed. (Pink squares) I had decent breathing room by now on the trailing stop -- the pullback was shallow and brief (always a no-no for entry on the NQ), then real-time Volume kicks in and without hesitation, I scale in 2 more units!

Major Buy Volume fires off but uh-oh... look out below, considerable Buy Stops fire at the same time Bearish Ice (-Ice)! A trap!!

Although the IB High was the intended target, the loaded up Liquidity before it I did not trust and had the plan to front run it at the first signs of exhaustion. So it happens: first signs of Red (Realtime Bear Volume), I dump everything... No runner, but eh... I was happy: +45pts?

Then we see the bears come in... I don't know; whatever.



11:04AM - Now above the Century...




and inside of a StalkZone ( grey zone from 103-120 that I drew last night), Cumulative Volume Delta is rising (slightly); a nice string of Buying Volume; the tape is green! 17, 44 21 contracts hit.. Buy Volume on the screen, I believe it will surpass the IB High..

I Bid it - fast! Again with the super tight stop I am taken out quickly. <Errr> Thought it was going to go!

Aggressively, In under a minute, I jump in again with manual stop ready below the prior congestion... The Buy Volume comes in AGAIN with the Buy Stops and Selling Ice... this is Absorbed as we hit the IB High.. and I am ready... first sign of weakness and I am out! Pretty luck to catch the top. As you see it goes sideways right after this (Where the Algo's Play).

I then take a lap to deal with all of the adrenaline.


Transparency - yeah, I took more NQ trades later.. and some draw down, too painful to illustrate. But yeah, at least I'm telling you.

ES - I did (pre-market) call some key entry levels and targets that played out.. eh, but who cares... I didn't trade em,

GC - Did Nothing.


That's all of the madness for now.



Notes:

Bookmap - best way to see Real-Time Volume, hands-down.

StalkZone - term created by FT71: levels are daily updated trade decision zones (proprietary for Convergent Traders) where market engagement is expected to take place.

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 EssDigs 
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Got up (almost on time), no coffee... and trying to prep for:
Thursdays numbers!


Numbers 02.25


Golds initial reaction - a rapid short.

I'll spare you my NT8 minute chare (boring!)


GC _Initial Jobs 02.25


...Bookmap - i see the Stalkzone's (SZ's) have played out with Bearish Stop Runs - On the Pullback (pb) - we can see there is bearish Ice (-Ice) forming.
After the Absorption at 1781.9 and a some Selling Volume comes in I take 1781 with the hopes we will revisit the range and check out the resting Liquid in the 1776's.

But the conflicting numbers.. I do as usual (Trail tightly), and scoop a quick 18ticks.

[didn't pay attention to my Tape!]

Anyway, Not a bad start of the day.



Now with OverNight Inventories leaning Risk-OFF, i am next looking primarily to Short some NQ / ES levels

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 EssDigs 
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ES Open long scale out 02.25


took on with the Bulls @ 3910, scaling out 1 unit for 2.25pt (at former VPOC)... as I trailed tightly..
6pts on 2nd unit

[Bookmap - notice the rising Bullish Ice ]

3917 is a Sell level for me, so I bailed on the 3rd unit aver a few Bears step in.

(decision making: Heavy reliance on Levels from homework and Real-Time Volume)

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 DavidHP 
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I'm trying not to be too critical here but how can you see anything from those charts?

SOOOO busy it is hard to see price or know what all the noise means.
I'd have brain freeze and never take a trade.

(again, not criticizing your method, just my take on what I see)

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 EssDigs 
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NQ SHORT!!

I've been missing the best setups... mainly due to MeatHeadism.... ( I've heard there's a cure) Why?

My Homework was pretty darn good but I missed the entries and chased.

No more chasing!! Please remind me: "NO MORE CHASING...NO MORE CHASING"

In any event, some small losses and small wins and some decent size wins so far for the morning session..

And oh, ya gotta love when Rithmic cuts out for the the upteenth time right in the middle of your execution.

Latency plus Late to the Sale... I missed a lot here but overall up on the day in NQ pts.



NQ pickin bottoms 02.25


As you can see in the Bookmap Cloud Note, I have 1VolaSigma marked (Proprietary from Convergent Trading ). In short a volatility based standard deviation of range. And below that, a Micro Composite High Volume Node (MCHVN), and this I then see as a magnet area (price will be attracted to it). Thus my Long here was very aggressive.. The -Stop (taken as a head fake) plus +Ice; and length of the rotation and double test was my cause for action.


[Note: the definitions are for anyone who's not yet in the know.]

Then the Rithmic connection conundrum ... No choice - I bailed for 9.75pts. Lucky again.

Anywayz.. got all three markets in and up for the morning session.
Lunch... need to walk away from this till the End of the Day (EOD)... ponder the meaning of life in the meantime, maybe cut some toenails.

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 matthew28 
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EssDigs View Post

I've been missing the best setups... mainly due to MeatHeatism.... ( I've heard there's a cure) Why?

Hi. Curious what MeatHeatism is? I Googled it and there was nothing

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 EssDigs 
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matthew28 View Post
Hi. Curious what MeatHeatism is? I Googled it and there was nothing

It was a joke and you alerted me to the typo...

corrected: "Meatheadism"

Meat-head-ism; the distinctive practice of being a Meat Head; regularly unwise

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 EssDigs 
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DavidHP View Post
I'm trying not to be too critical here but how can you see anything from those charts?

SOOOO busy it is hard to see price or know what all the noise means.
I'd have brain freeze and never take a trade.

(again, not criticizing your method, just my take on what I see)

David

I totally agree! You should see my IRT charts... geez!

For me, initially it was the same "this is toooo busy" But after a while you apportion your greater attention to what's needed 'at the specific time'

Think about the last time you flew an as you were boarding, you peeked into the cockpit: ALL THOSE DIALS! It always baffles me.

But what happens to the pilot (like the trader) after a certain amount of screen time with a platform, you filter out what's unnecessary until you need it.

That said, I still forget to check in with my Tape!!

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 EssDigs 
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Anticipated a choppy open today, yet still I did not act in accordance to it.


ES Open Chop upside test 02.26


Took on a few attempts to the upside as I intended to get 3845 if we are able to stay above 3834....

Got banged around then made it and profits came back to positive..

Missed my NQ short putzin' around with charts and dealing with latency (AGAIN) with Rithmic (heard it was not just me)!


the late set up was short lived:

NQH1.CME@RITHMIC_screenshot_20210226_154339_307


VIX is dropping and we are now on the move back towards the IB High

[ now I cannot even get Rithmic to restart... Ninja on CQG & TOS to the rescue ]


It's Friday and being up 32pts (ES trades), It seems wise to call it a day

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 EssDigs 
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Gold continues to be weak....

I was in no position to take the trade (tech issues, etc), and glad I didn't


GC Bulls Defense 02.26



caught in data drama.. checking back in its now this:



GC Bulls Lose 02.26


That Bullish Defense was short lived (I dodged a bullet).
The 1727's could not hold and Buyers are now sought some where below

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 EssDigs 
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Sunday Thoughts

Globex is soon upon us, the indies, relatively have all taken a trip down (from Thursdays / the last Globex session ) into Friday's RTH Range.

The question is: Have Buyers been found yet?

As Balance leads to Imbalance, I think we all wonder if the downside is exhausted or not? If not, is there more venturing south for additional buyers AND do we feign to give Buyers the reigns for a full on averaging daily range all the while just testing before a another drop or even the long awaited drop/correction.

Too many possibilities come to mind and a I have to rely on more information and observation.

As far as information goes...


ES Cash close quick-flush 02.26


... I am having a bit of difficulty discerning forward facing events from this prior week's finish. If you know someone who knows for sure, please DM me their direct cell number.

Was this Flush a probe beyond the prior Low of the Day, or a preparation to father more sellers and bring the auction, substantially below the Century figure, or at least into the 70's; 50's?

At this time, I know I need more fundamentals and at least this coming open to provide additional technicals.

Where are the resting orders? For ES, NQ...
This is my current unanswered question, and while knowing this helps, once investigate, I still feel there is a need to see how Asia session handles things.

Thus, I am hands-off for this open.

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 EssDigs 
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NQ Globex_to Pre-Cash_ key range_ 03.01


Overnight questions answered (previous post)

This Range: Where I will watch carefully.. It's Monday, no urge to pull the trigger before first 15mins.

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 EssDigs 
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Initiative move today. The overnighters robbed us.. I stubbornly fought the move but there was there was no revisiting 13000.

suffered some losses... then later:

NQ Cash close Impulse 03.01


Caught a piece of the prior Bullish Impulse - but this one was too quick, was coming out of a trade; hesitated... missed it. Didn't partake in the retrace or the continuation.

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 EssDigs 
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GC battl-support at the Prior Close - Resistance in the 1728s _03.02


GC - Watching this Range - retest of either level .... leaning toward the Support




ES looking to take Longs in the 96's after Cash Open test below 03.02


ES Looking to take structured Long IF strength above THE 96'S

Shorts if hold below 68's

[Scalp NQ shorts IF ES Longs work]

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 EssDigs 
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Currently up for the day, however,

ES - I got beat up taking both directions after 10am (while leaning short) when price chopped around the VPOC (3896)


ES tape before 10am EST 03.02


saw it on my Bookmap T&S but a little late... Bulls are likely to loose the Point of Control!

Then...




Managed to make back the losses

NQ Scalps gave much more satisfaction, as a few turned to structured trades (160pts)

GC - gave up -$2.30 continuation breakout short @ 1718.8 was a fail.

Overall up on the day, going to respect my Lunch rule today and walk away until EOD.

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 EssDigs 
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Overnight Analysis - Resistance within yProfile at key levels gave me the Downside bias.
I was looking for a test and a fail of the ONHI then selling opportunities.

But first;

Really annoyed with the fact that there are key players that get the numbers early and start the move early...
as they did with the ADP Non-Farm Employment numbers this morning.

Gold has still been in correlation with the indices, I decided to trade it and got beat up pretty bad.

Saw my numbers in ES trigger and quite frustrated I was not able to get over to it..

Later, an opportunity came for a come back in NQ and I aggressively took it:


NQ_conflicting_zone_03.03


11:15 quick drop and recover with Thin Buy volume coupled by both Buy/Sell/Buy/Sell Icebergs... this to me, reeked of Conflict and I felt the area would be later tested.

Shortly after it hit one of my StalkZones, I decided to Sell 12962 and did so leveraged up!


NQ_Sold_into__conflicting_zone_03.03



Called it a day after that come back - Going to stack up my Psychological Capital... Take full advantage of some Thursday Price Action!

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 EssDigs 
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They moved the market (wow again) prior to the number (+Initial Jobs)

Now I Question if we surpass 3828 in ES
or do we go revisit the recent Lows 3790's

IF ...IF we are to test lower,


ES_ potential retest of low at key probable range 03.04.21



Strength Below 3912 looks good for my entry down to the Century test

Statistical Range AND serious players at 3775

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 EssDigs 
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it was the fricking wild west prior but these levels (mentioned above - - serious intent players) played out.

(with need to front-run on the lower)
Targets acquired



Unfortunately... there were were some substantial losses before this finally
played out

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 EssDigs 
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ATR study NQ 3min bars _5 days back minus 03.04 and 03.03. _03.04.21


keeping trades today without getting stopped out was not exclusive to me & mine only.

I later took notice that on my 3min bars, the ATR for a 3min period was 42.5pts!!

My trading partner asked about the average, I had not recently looked back to know this answer with certainty.

So I eliminated today and yesterday, and then looked at the prior 5 days and the prior 21 days

Wow.. we are today, more than double the 1 week and 3 week avg ATR!

------

RESOLVE THAT:

When large Rotations are detected, and they are above average, its best to:

A. trade minimal lots for best High Probability trades only _ only once things slow down
B. trade micros (carefully)
OR
C. Stay out for that day

Will build this into the Trade Plan!

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 EssDigs 
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After yesterdays volatility and extraordinary rotation size, I figure to grab some ticks during the Globex....
yikes, was not that easy and took some losses.

Stopped before it was sheer anarchy.

left some bullets for this mornings NFP numbers:


NQ_NFP_reversal trade 03.05.21


4 Long Trades, after the Short Fake; on the Bullish reversal - entering once above the Overnight VPOC - -

Was able to recover losses and surpass my M.D.G. (Minimum Daily Goal) before the Cash Open.
And because Friday is my most important Psyche-Cap day... this PnL will remain intact.... and I've been DFD (Done for the Day)!

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 EssDigs 
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ES Rotations since close of the IB 03.05.21


Shorting hasn't been easy on the follow through - however - Notice:
Largest Rotations have been to the downside since the close of the IB

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 EssDigs 
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Been a beat up week...

Trying to remain more focused on the major targets (suffer less chop damage)

NQ_upside_Liquid_03.11.21



Or.. 920 to the downside (which has played); next 900

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 EssDigs 
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NQ June Contract Roll thickening 03.12.21


The roll coming thru nicely,

Meanwhile I traded March -- Found ability to get in with the Buyers off the 12780 Naked VPOC that was test quite a few times... upside targets were 875 & 905 (IB High); Bit hit!

Ended my Friday early.

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 EssDigs 
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It's been 2weeks + I haven't updated things here...

We have ended the quarter; started the month and achieved the 4K level in ES!


ES - EOD - a look above 04.01.21



The first thing to figure out is this ATH chop and if we probe higher (as the Implied Volatility target level for the week is 4033) or do we peter out.

Some player came in right After ISM Manufacturing numbers this morning with 2300+ orders layered above 4000

Watching closely now for this last half of the EOD.

Relative Volume has been below avg this week with the exception of Open Mon & Tues as well as this last half hour past two days.

Up so far for the day, will move on a scalp if the Realtime Volume speaks clear

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